The Bucs Should…
April 8th, 2019
Predicts Bucs’ move.
One man believes he has found in his crystal ball what the Bucs will do when they are on the clock at No. 5 on the first night of the NFL draft in just over two weeks.
And that man is none other than mock draft-scowling, L.L. Bean-wearing, Second Amendment abolitionist, Mike Florio-arguing, parrot-insensitive, chewing-with-his-mouth-open, soup-gulping, California train-romancing, anti-football proliferation, outhouse-admiring, airline-napping, steerage-flying, Yogi Berra-worshiping, urinal picture-taking, video game-playing, Taylor Swift-listening, pickpocket-thwarting, Bucs-uniform-frowning, Allie-LaForce-smitten, Big-Ten-Network-hating, pedestrian-bumping, olive oil-lapping, popcorn-munching, coffee-slurping, fried-chicken-eating, oatmeal-loving, circle-jerking, craft beer-chugging, cricket-watching, scone-loathing, college football-naïve, baseball-box-score-reading, NPR-honk, filthy-hotel-staying, fight-instigating, barista-training social activist Peter King of NBC fame.
Typing his weekly column this morning that appears on NBCSports.com, King is of the mind the Bucs defense is so pathetic, that the Bucs should pass on a generational edge rusher and instead, trade down and settle for less.
That’s a strength of GM Jason Licht, who has done it two of the last three years. And because they don’t seem inclined to sign defensive tackle Gerald McCoy long-term (the Bucs have cap issues), and they could trade him, and they need multiple picks at reasonable prices. If they could deal down to a QB-craving team (Miami at 13?), Houston’s Ed Oliver or Clemson’s Clelin Ferrell could buttress a needy defensive front.
Joe understands why folks would push this notion but Joe is not for it for the very same approach Bucco Bruce Arians said he has about picking at No. 5: You hope you don’t pick this high again for years to come.
So get that guy you think is a Hall of Famer. And reasoned people know there is no position on defense that is more important than an edge rusher.
Look, if the Bucs already had a replacement for Jason Pierre-Paul, Joe would be down with trading back and loading up on defensive talent. But a replacement for JPP is not on the roster and next year is his last year — if he plays for the Bucs next year. He well could be a salary cap casualty. Remember whose salary skyrockets next year.
Besides, this is banking on the Bucs hitting on all the picks it can get back in a trade. How’d that work out last year when it appeared Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht got a haul from Buffalo in trading back?
Of those three picks, two are stiffs and a third is a question mark. So what’s the point of trading back?
The higher you pick, the less of a chance of missing and the greater chance of getting an animal for the next decade.
April 8th, 2019 at 10:14 am
Christian Wilkins over Clelin Ferrell all day every day and twice on Sunday
April 8th, 2019 at 10:15 am
Other teams make trading down worthwhile- it’s certainly a great notion- but OUR return on the draft equity gained has been almost zero. Think about that for a minute…let it settle in…how many of those additional picks have really panned out for us? Heck there are still plenty of question marks around the primary pics of Vea and Hargreaves. Neither are proven. We’re like a schizophrenic chicken chasing the golden egg. Misfire on a pick one year so we have to trade back to get more picks the next to compensate. Only to misfire again on those additional picks…and round/round we go.
April 8th, 2019 at 10:18 am
ed oliver…..even at #5…..
#REALISTKNOWSNOTHING!!!!!….GO BUCS!!!!
April 8th, 2019 at 10:22 am
If Licht manages to screw this up he should have to donate all of his salary to Bucs fans in the form of an “I messed up Party.” Free beer, food, and Jason Licht piñatas.
April 8th, 2019 at 10:23 am
If we didn’t trade back we still end up with Vea + Jones…
We just lose Stewart/Davis/Cappa essentially – or Cappa becomes some other pick in the 4th.
So I’m OK with trading back if the situation deems it. Last year it netted us a starting CB in addition to the same player we would have taken.
If the first 4 players are Bosa/Williams/Allen/Oliver I would want to trade back because personally those are the only 4 I would feel justified taking at 5 and even with Oliver he’s a potential trade back candidate.
Devin White
Devin Bush
Jonah Williams
Jawaan Taylor
Brian Burns
Montez Sweat
Those are all day 1 stud starter types IMO with huge upside and not even including Clemson DL or cartoon superhero Metcalf who should go top 10ish – meaning between 2-3 QBs + WR + maybe a CB going we could move back as far as 15 in this specific draft and get one of the above and make me happy while adding ammo so that Licht can still get 1 starter by mistake even with his horrific 2nd round success rate
April 8th, 2019 at 10:23 am
I’d rather have Ed Oliver at 5 than move back and take even Christian Wilkins (who I like a lot), but it depends on the compensation. If we get a high 2 and a 3, then I’d probably do it, but that likely won’t happen.
April 8th, 2019 at 10:33 am
Ed Oliver is a rotational guy at best.
April 8th, 2019 at 10:35 am
So Cappa, Stewart, jones are already viewed as busts after only their rookie season. Not all rookies can develop and become immediate starters their first season. Now we have “needs” at their positions because there is no way they can possibly be good anymore. LOL. Thank goodness we have coaches that have not given up on them so soon.
April 8th, 2019 at 10:39 am
Anybody else all disturbed that “craft beer-chugging” is standing out as not being a link?
April 8th, 2019 at 10:40 am
LC I like the potential of trading back and still being able to get a guy like Sweat, White, Williams or Taylor ….but getting that extra 2nd rnd and maybe a 4th we could still get , Jaylon furgeson and Polite in the 2nd.
April 8th, 2019 at 10:53 am
Would you rather have 1 potential generational talent and pro bowler who can impact a game.
Or two guys that are just ok to good? Too fill out a roster
April 8th, 2019 at 10:54 am
Take the obvious pick and don’t try to be cute like last year and the years before. White has immediate all pro written all over him, just like Derwin James.
April 8th, 2019 at 10:54 am
The more Joe bangs about a edge rusher, the more I’m confident he’s not sure how a 3-4 scheme works…
April 8th, 2019 at 10:58 am
I’m a big fan of this website, but Joe has got to know Peter King has absolutely no idea what he is taking about.
Clelin Ferrell is a very good DE and should be taken in the first round, but he is a traditional 4/3 DE and the Bucs have had no reported contact with the guy and the Bucs are converting to a 3/4 defense.
If Peter King would have said the Bucs could be targeting Rashan Gary(three meetings), Ed Oliver(two meetings), Devin White(two meetings), Devin Bush(private invite) or even Cody Ford(two meetings) or Jawan Taylor(one meeting) that would have made more sense.
April 8th, 2019 at 10:59 am
If your guy isn’t there trade down, this is not the year to gamble when the player you want is sitting there.
April 8th, 2019 at 11:06 am
the bucs should…..
trade places with an XFL team so they can stop embarrassing themselves on Sundays….
April 8th, 2019 at 11:06 am
OK now everyone say it all together one more time to pacify Joe …
“So get that guy you think is a Hall of Famer. And reasoned people know there is no position on defense that is more important than an edge rusher.”
Apparently there are more than a few JBFers who Joe would never classify as ‘reasoned people’. And apparently Bill Belicheck wouldn’t classify as a ‘reasoned person’ either, since he values his Back-7 higher than his Front-4. But hey, what does he know? The guy stuck with Tom Brady when he could’ve had Johnny Manziel.
April 8th, 2019 at 11:14 am
“Kobe hates to give the draft sheep the bad news but…
The teams/GMs dont love this years QBs
No one wants to move up to#5
#5 DWhite or Ed Oliver
2nd round- Oline
3rd round- DB
4th round- RB David montgomery
5th round- Oline”
Kobe Faker
April 8th, 2019 at 11:28 am
But remember Joe, as you indicated in a previous post, Arians will likely be guiding the picks this year, and I have a feeling his eye for talent is much better than Licht’s.
April 8th, 2019 at 11:33 am
It’s just my opinion, but I think a lot of people see Aaron Donald when they see Oliver. I’m skeptical, the guy played for Houston. If he was so dominant, his stats would be off the charts against the likes of Houston’s opponents.
Like Kobe, I think the QBs in this draft are way overrated. It’s the 5th pick! It better be a generational player.
April 8th, 2019 at 11:39 am
Joe, you’ve perfectly laid out the reasons why “Dunce Cap” will trade down.
Why take a sure thing generational player at #5 when you can prove you are smarter and more clever than everyone else and trade down for projects that go bust.
April 8th, 2019 at 11:41 am
Someone remind “Dunce Cap” that quality trumps quantity.
April 8th, 2019 at 11:58 am
I’m with the “If our guy isn’t there at 5….trade down if we can”
The question is…..who is our guy….if it’s Bosa,Williams or Allen…..he may not be there….if it’s White or Oliver, he probably will be there.
Here is the person who’s opinion matters the most….in priority order:
Bowles (since it is likely a defensive pick)
BA
Licht
JBF posters
Joe
Mine
April 8th, 2019 at 12:10 pm
PSLBob
” Arians will likely be guiding the picks this year, and I have a feeling his eye for talent is much better than Licht’s”
One would like to think so.. I remember David Johnson being a Plan B after Detroit took the guy Arians really wanted. Not sure the guy in Detroit turned into a superstar…Point is it’s all a crap shoot.
April 8th, 2019 at 12:35 pm
db55
maybe under smitty…..but TB is more creative and will put the best 11 on the field…..Ed Oliver is a starter all day and twice on sundays…..
#REALISTKNOWSNOTHING!!!!!….GO BUCS!!!!
April 8th, 2019 at 1:31 pm
LC… has it.. The first two picks wouldn’t have changed at all… so trading down yielded Carlton Davis, a year two starting CB and Stewart.
Furthermore, if there is a generational pass rusher in this class that will be there at 5, I’m not sure who that is. My guess is that this is all moot as two QB’s will be drafted and either Allen or Williams will fall to 5.
Look at it this way.. By trading down, the Bucs “missed out” on Josh Allen, Roquan Smith (interior line backer), Mike McGlinchey, Josh Rosen and Minkah Fitzpatrick.
Minkah would look outstanding in the new defense but wasn’t as good of a fit for Mike Smith.
Hard to argue the Bucs wanted any of those players and I’m not going to jump up and down wishing the Bucs would’ve drafted any vs Vea. Vea really looked good after Licht decided to coach him.
April 8th, 2019 at 2:14 pm
If it’s not Quinnen, Bosa, or Allen, we’d be stupid NOT to trade down.
Trade back. Add a 2nd round pick. Pick one of Devin Bush, Brian Burns, Montez Sweat or Ed Oliver in the 1st.
April 8th, 2019 at 2:43 pm
Take the BPA. We will be picking very high again next year as well. Arians saying he doesn’t want to pick this high again sounds good, but isn’t reality. This team went 5-11 and has lost more talent in the offseason and got nothing other than camp meat and guys with huge question marks. The Pollyanna view that coaching was the only problem and all is well now that Bruce and company are here is not based on reality. Talent on the field is what wins and this team has holes everywhere. LB is a huge area of concern NOW. Next year we can use the top 5 pick we almost certainly have on the best available DE if there is any quality there.
April 8th, 2019 at 3:15 pm
I think cleilin Ferrell is the best def player in the draft,just look at championship game.
April 8th, 2019 at 4:41 pm
Winston’s salary goes up, but so will the cap, and Evans salary goes down – it’s inflated for this year because they did have cap space. Winston makes $20m this year, and probably $27m or so next year, so any increase in Winston’s salary is easily offset by new cap space and Evan’s deal.
The Bucs could also create some space by getting David a new deal since he only has this season and next season on his current deal.
If OJ can make it through this season without getting injured, then I’d assume Brate is gone, that’s $7m.
VH3 will be off the books after this year, that’s $4.5m.
The anger ginger, unless he plays dramatically better this year, will also be gone, that’s $10m.
JPP’s deal drops from $15m to $12.5m, so there’s another $2.5m.
McCoy, if he sticks around, will see his salary drop from $13m to $12.5m.
Gholston is at $4.7m, and based on his previous years play, it’s doubtful he’s around. But if he is around it’s most likely that he had a good year and in that case $4.7m is a bargain. But I’d bet $4.7m is freed up.
Anywho the Bucs have plenty of cap space if they want to make cap space. The way the Bucs do deals most all players can be cut to create more space if needed without killing the cap.
April 8th, 2019 at 4:48 pm
Loyaltotheend!
All-Pros & HOFers are drafted everywhere, in any round. Others have been doing it better than us, with lower picks for decades! We need A LOT of very good players! The key is to give no key to the draft-day war-room to the GM!
April 8th, 2019 at 6:01 pm
josh allen then if not possible devin white
April 8th, 2019 at 6:23 pm
Trading down is so stupid. This team is bad and has a need for too 5 talent no matter the position.
April 8th, 2019 at 6:23 pm
*top five talent
April 8th, 2019 at 7:09 pm
Since when are top 5 picks guaranteed to be “generational”? Everyone of these picks has the chance of busting. Therefore, I think the more chips you can lay down on the roulette table the better chance of hitting the Jackpot. The GOAT wasn’t a top 5 pick.
April 8th, 2019 at 7:39 pm
No trading down
April 8th, 2019 at 7:54 pm
813
I’ll take your word for it but from what I’ve seen idk I don’t see it but wtfdik
April 8th, 2019 at 8:47 pm
813
Alright my brother I went back to watch film on Ed Oliver:
1. Looks like a poor man Joey Porter to me, big ol olb, problem is he’s being sold as an Aaron Donald. COME ON MAN!
2. No way he holds up against nfl oline man – he doesn’t use his hands at all
3. When I’m watching a highlight tape or film session and I repeatedly say “who’s he playing against?” That’s not a good thing. I recognized USF but I swear it couldn’t figure out if he was playing against a fake auburn team, Illinois fighting Illinoi or who it was, come to find out it was big bad Arizona sadly he gets pancaked on the first play.
4. I’m sure he’s a good player but difference maker at 5 he is not.
5. He’s fast and makes great plays when HES NOT BEING BLOCKED
April 8th, 2019 at 9:58 pm
DAMN. You don’t get it. No trade down. Oliver @5… that kid with Vea and JPP
April 9th, 2019 at 12:13 am
Peter King? I thought this guy was Peter North.
April 9th, 2019 at 9:20 am
I feel Allen is vastly overrated. Actually like D. Bush better than White or Allen Do not like Gary at all. Williams, Oliver or Sweat. Sleeper Wilkens. Let’s see what happens. Keep Licht out of the draft room.
April 9th, 2019 at 10:00 am
Joe, those are my thoughts too. Let me add that drafting a position such as DL has the success rate of 58% in the first round and 26% in the second round. So, it doesn’t matter if it’s BA making the picks, second round picks have a large drop off. The drop off from picks 1-5 to 6-10 is also substantial. Stay put and get a day 1 difference maker.
April 9th, 2019 at 10:02 am
Thank you.
April 9th, 2019 at 6:01 pm
I’m w/ you Joe but in this draft I think you can get a HOF all the way back till like 15 on defensive side of the ball. Draft is so deep w/ lineman, like that 2011 draft that had Von Miller, Daerus, Aldon Smith, JJ Watt, Robert Quinn, Ryan Kerrigan, Corey Luiget, Cam Jordan, Mo Wilkerson, Cam Heyward who were ALL drafted that yr in the 1st round
So I think Licht will be smart in trading back b/c this draft is rich in lineman…