The Analytics Draft Pick At No. 5
April 4th, 2019
“Look, Mr. Glazer, Bruce is making the pick. He’s the boss. I’m just scouting and leading my personnel team. Whatever Bruce wants, even if he wants me to burn this gorgeous jacket.”
A very different mock draft was posted at NFL.com today, one grounded in data, complemented by a smattering of real-life chats with NFL team officials.
And the Bucs have a clear pick at No. 5 overall in three short weeks.
NFL.com data trooper Cynthia Frelund explained her recent and first foray into the mock draft world today.
So, before you read any further, take note: I am NOT attempting to predict or divine what teams will ACTUALLY DO on draft day. This is not meant to predict how the draft will play out in reality. Rather, I am using this model to, again, examine what teams should do if winning the most games in 2019 is their only goal.
Here’s how my mock works: I use my draft prospect model, explained at the top of the article linked to here, and go deeper to create a numerical value for each player. These ratings can be compared across years.
Then I use my NFL model, adjusted for new free agent signings, to create projected win-contribution metrics by player, position group and side of the ball. These get added up to forecast win totals for the season. An example of these for WRs can be found in the article linked to here.
Frelund goes on to detail more of the guidelines for her mock via the first link above. Regardless, she had the Bucs taking the guy most mockers believe they will at No. 5 overall.
PICK 5 School: LSU | Year: Junior Devin White – LB
Kwon Alexander signed in San Francisco, further depleting a defense that allowed a league-worse 110.9 passer rating last season. Adding my model’s highest-impact linebacker — and the one whose coverage potential is the greatest at the next level — moves the Buccaneers’ win-total needle the most. Separately from the analytics, I have asked 10 individual sources from 10 different teams for their thoughts on him — I ask on-field questions only — and they have all gone out of their way to give glowing “personality” reviews. Of the 100-plus guys I have asked about in this draft class, White is the one I have heard of as having the most positive “intangibles.”
Interesting team-source commentary there from Frelund. She asked about Xs and Os, and she got guys raving about White’s intangibles.
If White is as intoxicating a personality as Joe has heard he is, then it might be hard for Bucco Bruce Arians to resist him if the film matches up.
April 4th, 2019 at 5:08 pm
I’d rather have Oliver.
April 4th, 2019 at 5:13 pm
I’d rather have a linemen
April 4th, 2019 at 5:15 pm
Having a feeling lately Brian Burns will be the pick after a trade down. No hard evidence, just a hunch. Offers a lot of versatility at both DE and as an OLB with coverage ability in Bowles’ scheme. Positive this will get a lot of negative feedback. Haven’t heard much about Bucs interest in him, which adds to narrative.
April 4th, 2019 at 5:15 pm
It sounds like she spends more time/ effort on this than our GM does. Can she write contracts too?
April 4th, 2019 at 5:15 pm
GMC is 31 and no where near worth $13 million/year. I’m taking Ed. Maybe a LB in the 3rd.
April 4th, 2019 at 5:16 pm
Once upon a time we signed a middle linebacker as a free agent that made all the players around him better – if we have to draft him this time we should do what we have to do
April 4th, 2019 at 5:16 pm
I am with you SB…..Even more I would draft the best OL before a LB…..
April 4th, 2019 at 5:20 pm
Q. Williams and Oliver might be gone with the recent love of Oliver. I would rather get a DT and have a DE drop into the 2nd round. I just don’t see us not taking Oliver if he is there.
April 4th, 2019 at 5:21 pm
LB is a need but in the real world it will come down to BPA on the Bucs draft board. They could easily have 5 players ranked ahead of him that are available #5. What we need is our gumshoe JBF reporters to get a glimpse at that Buccaneer draft board. Maybe accidentally get lost in the palace. I’m sure like all palaces their are hidden passage ways.
lol. ..No ..don’t. j/k
April 4th, 2019 at 5:30 pm
@Cynthia Frelund … “Of the 100-plus guys I have asked about in this draft class, White is the one I have heard of as having the most positive “intangibles.” Nope, obviously the Bucs can’t pick him if everyone thinks so highly of him. D’quan Bowers, come on down. Bucs have a spot for you.
April 4th, 2019 at 5:32 pm
Hey SOEbuc, who the hell’s Ed?
jk
April 4th, 2019 at 5:33 pm
The number 5 pick should have tangibles.
April 4th, 2019 at 5:34 pm
The Bucs are in this position because they keep neglecting the DE position. And everyone seems to want another high drafted DT. Be a bad move with all the DE’s available. I’m starting to think if they stay at 5 either Allen or Sweat are the pick. The DT was last year boys. No thanks on another. An impact DE is what this team needs and has needed for many years.
April 4th, 2019 at 5:35 pm
Oh, you probably meant Oliver. My bad. I thought you meant DE, and put it in wrong. Moving on….
April 4th, 2019 at 5:35 pm
“Going to be alittle boring this year because
Teams wont be moving up for a QB”
Kobe “Anybody except Montez Sweat” Faker
April 4th, 2019 at 5:39 pm
Wonder what Frelund’s analytics model says about needing to manipulate our salary cap situation via cutting/trading a 31 year old DT with a $13 million bloated salary, and thus need a young fierce monster to replace that person????? Jam that into your ‘Puter….d2d2d2d2d2d2….
The ‘Puter spits out the results and it says….QUINNEN WILLIAMS.
Done!
April 4th, 2019 at 5:46 pm
Lol, so many guys say take the BPA and then in another thread they say take the 3rd best DE in the draft instead. Take the BPA at all costs. If White is that guy so be it. If one the top 3 falls and that may change. However, it definitely looks like all 3 will be gone when the Bucs pick. I don’t want the Bucs to reach for a player when a generational LB is there for the taking.
April 4th, 2019 at 5:47 pm
The ‘Puter spits out the results and it says….QUINNEN WILLIAMS.
Done!
you realize that is not a high probability choice…if he is there fine but don’t plan to hard around that…DL….tackle or edge plenty of good choices with only 4 names called…better hope for QB run if Quin is going to fall
April 4th, 2019 at 5:48 pm
I’d rather have a guy that we’re not talking about replacing or upgrading the position in 3 yrs. I haven’t spent the time researching the prospects this season but if White is that caliber player I’m fine with him at 5. If Oliver is that caliber of a player I’m fine with him also. As long as they solidify a position and don’t end up in a situation like they currently are at CB.
April 4th, 2019 at 5:49 pm
Chix maybe one in 20 mocks have Q Williams falling to 5. You want to trade up to get him???
April 4th, 2019 at 5:49 pm
Well, at least we know which Joe wrote this one … hehe!!
April 4th, 2019 at 5:52 pm
White allows the defense the most scheme versatility.
April 4th, 2019 at 5:54 pm
We are NOT in any situation because of any single position. That’s simply hyperbole. As D.R. continually reminds us football is the ultimate team sport. LOTS of positions have to be manned by quality players who play well together as a coordinated unit.
Coaching comes into that coordination along with play calling.
The position generally conceded as the most important on any team is QB. JW has left a lot to be desired. This is not the same as hating on JW or blaming the losses on him alone. There is PLENTY of blame and many reasons for our current predicament. IMHO if our QB has the big year we expect we’ll win. It’s as simple as that.
I do not believe any single draft pick is going to turn us around and get us over some mythical hump. The analysis of this woman makes a lot of sense to me however.
If White is Kuechly level talent (that’s another debate…I’m not saying he is or isn’t) as the piece points out he will make the most bang of all the possible choices.
How many times did we see N.O’s RB’s catch it out of the backfield…The Panthers ditto…our LB’s were not great. I love LVD but really…why did so many teams get giant gains from short passes in the LB’s zones…or run the ball down our throats.
We need bigger faster LB’s and White is a start. Unless of course you do not consider him a major talent.
April 4th, 2019 at 6:01 pm
Trade down, collect draft capital for this year and next. Three top 40 picks plus another one in 2020 trumps two top 35 picks this year
April 4th, 2019 at 6:09 pm
I’m for picking the best player available at a position of need….that would be,
Allen, Williams, Bosa or White at this point IMO.
When you start considering others like Sweat & Oliver you are probably picking the third or 4th best…..
White is a consensus best MLB….and we need one.
It sounds to me that there may be so many options at 5 that many fans will not be happy with the pick. We would be better off if there was a “no brainer” choice….maybe Allen or Williams will drop.
A trade down (not too far) could still produce a very good player of need…
I am concerned more with the 2nd & 3rd round pick…..Licht has a history of bad picks there…..hopefully Arians & Bowles will be the primary influence on all picks this year….and I think they will be.
April 4th, 2019 at 6:19 pm
I love the Licht Weight movie usher costume…Joe’s photography skills are very underrated. 🙂 Lots or talent on the board @ 5. Blowing the 17 point lead in the season finale was a good thing.
April 4th, 2019 at 6:23 pm
LB’s are the strength of a 3-4 defense not Ends…
April 4th, 2019 at 6:24 pm
Oliver could play end.as well. Oliver looks dominant.
April 4th, 2019 at 6:33 pm
Take white and never look back!
April 4th, 2019 at 6:35 pm
If most the people on this site don’t want him the I know he’s the right pick lmao
April 4th, 2019 at 6:36 pm
Bucs added a DT today..
April 4th, 2019 at 6:36 pm
Nick Thurman
April 4th, 2019 at 6:42 pm
Damn! We could of had a V8!
April 4th, 2019 at 6:51 pm
The Bucs have had great success drafting LB’s under Licht, so I’d go with the idea of getting a top defensive lineman early, or trading down a few spots and getting a top corner.
I mean I won’t hate the pick by any means, you’d have a day 1 start who by all means should be a pro bowler pretty early in his career, so that would make the pick look good. But I also have a lot of confidence in Licht to find a guy who is really really good in the 2nd, 3rd or 4th as well.
April 4th, 2019 at 6:58 pm
Geraldine would be. Bigger hole than kwon could ever be, I think most people are doing their mock as if the Bucs are not trying to replace Geraldine. I no longer think linebacker is the biggest need and definitely should not be the pick without trading down
April 4th, 2019 at 7:01 pm
Knowing Jason Gump he will probably draft a holder with the 5th pick and give Batman a raise to 20 million a year…. NO faith in Licht!
April 4th, 2019 at 7:03 pm
I’ll keep saying it: Belichick runs a hybrid like Bowles. Who does he keep getting rid of? Chandler Jones, Trey Flowers, Richard Seymour. Who does he keep? Tedy Bruschi, Jerod Mayo, Dont’a Hightower.
April 4th, 2019 at 7:03 pm
Glowing personality? Great intangibles? LSU? Yeah, we’ve had one of those captaining the worst defense in NFL history.
April 4th, 2019 at 7:06 pm
@TouchDownTampaBay….
Lol…cool. You put your faith in “mocks” huh. Do all 20 of your supposed mocks, that you have read so dutifully, account for trades, trades that will go down in round 1 during the live bullets firing??? Nope. And even if you found one that might have trades…..
1) No one knows what Gruden will do at #4….no one but Jon himself.
2) Whether or not Murray goes to ARI at #1 as many suspect now, do you think all 7 QB-needy teams from #6 thru #15 will just sit there and let the Giants pick who they want at #6????
So…..you don’t “know” squat. I don’t know for certain anything either. What I do know, thus my previous comment for QUINNEN, is….that QB-needy teams owned by billionaires will not be told which QB toy they can or can not have. So they will…….trade. Like WAS at #15. Like DEN and Elway at #10. CIN at #11…new coach doesn’t want Dalton. Patricia as HC at #8 tried to trade Stafford twice before 2018 season, so says the HC himself.
So…..in summary, GMC might be a trade toy with a future restructured-contract acquisition to say OAK at #4 should Quinnen get to #4, for Bucs to get him, then OAK
April 4th, 2019 at 7:07 pm
*gets GMC, and can take whomever they want at #5. Just one example….
On and on…with scenarios.
April 4th, 2019 at 7:07 pm
6-10. So it doesn’t make a difference who they take.
I couldn’t care less this dumpster fire of a franchise will F it up anyway.
Other than about 5-6 years it’s all bad.
I’ve seen literally every single game since 1987 and somehow someway it ends badly.
I don’t know why I chose to like this pathetic loser shi tty year after year team.
Why are they always so bad you ask?
Terrible pathetic owners that invest in a pathetic sport like soccer ⚽️
And the owners before that were even worse.
I revel in watching this crappy franchise find new ways to lose from week to week.
I laugh as all you idiot FSU millennials get all butt hurt as if this team is a team with a history of greatness for football.
Maybe one year I’ll have an actual reason to care.
But I still continue to plan my sundays around the Bucs games even though the result is usually easily predictable.
Yawn
Wake me up when they matter again.
April 4th, 2019 at 7:09 pm
Does this make the picture any clearer for you Joe??? Seems everyone outside Tampa see’s Devin White for what he is pertaining to the Bucs accept all GM team building fans on this site. And that iisss. A Perfect Fit.
April 4th, 2019 at 7:10 pm
Christopher don’t waste your time bro. Draft night approaches.
April 4th, 2019 at 7:10 pm
We all gone see what’s up then.
April 4th, 2019 at 7:13 pm
Trade back, stack up some picks, take Oliver.
April 4th, 2019 at 7:13 pm
We should be trying to trade down as much as we are trying to trade GMC!…..w/the same effort!!! No lower than pick #15……should net bare minimum a 2nd rd pick this year and more. Quinnen W./Oliver/Sweat/White if we stay at #5. After a trade down and an additional 2nd rd pick:
1st: Christian Wilkins (DT)/Rashaan Gary (Edge, OLB)/Cody Ford (OG/OT)
2nd: Jerry Tillery(DT)/Rock Ya-Sin (CB, nickel)
2nd: Damien Harris (RB)/Chris Lindstrom (OG)
3rd: Vosean Joseph ( MLB)/Germaine Pratt(MLB)
April 4th, 2019 at 7:17 pm
Trade down, collect draft capital for this year and next. Three top 40 picks this year and one in 2020 could be the haul to slide back ten picks or so.
April 4th, 2019 at 7:24 pm
Oh and czar let me guess it would sensible for the raiders to draft him at 4 but of us at 5 right.. You right who knows what grudog will do but we do know he’s signed two LBr over the summer one of whom Vontez Burfict.
April 4th, 2019 at 7:30 pm
It is easier to find 3-4 pass rushers deeper in the draft than it is to find 4-3 DE. College football is full of functional tweener DE/OLB’s.
I would say this about White, he is dominant and he is still learning the position. I also think it’s possible that he could play both inside and outside in a 3-4 look.
April 4th, 2019 at 7:44 pm
Stopped reading after I saw her with San fran taking CB from Georgia at 2.
April 4th, 2019 at 7:46 pm
White is a player in any scheme….4-3….3-4….He fits. When you factor in Licht does have some success drafting LBs….maybe its best not to over think it.
April 4th, 2019 at 7:47 pm
Cynthia Frelund is really good with statistics and smoking hot to boot. I can’t be the only one that thinks this. Anyway, she makes a good point. As for McCoy being a bigger loss than Kwon, not in a 3-4. I’m ok with White and he won’t be available in a trade back scenario unless we drop back 1 spot with the Giants. That being said I’d rather take a pass rusher if one of the top guys is available.
April 4th, 2019 at 7:47 pm
Give me a trench player at 5.
If Bosa and Quinnen are gone- then expect one of Allen, Sweat or Oliver to be the guy.
My preference:
1 Quinnen
2 Bosa
3 Oliver
4 Allen
5 White
April 4th, 2019 at 7:52 pm
There seem to be so many good players mentioned for us at 5….it is very possible some of them will be there later in the first round.
Possible partners @ 6, 7, 11, 13, 15
There are definite possibilities moving down.
April 4th, 2019 at 7:53 pm
It will be DT or LB.
April 4th, 2019 at 7:53 pm
@Joebucsfan: Why do you NOT post my comments?
April 4th, 2019 at 7:55 pm
Bonzai-
It could be DE?
Maybe Gary or sweat?
Both are supreme physical talents.
April 4th, 2019 at 7:57 pm
No way Bosa falls. I’m kind of hoping Murray and Haskins go 1-2, and someone either trades up for Lock, or offers us a King’s Ranom to leapfrog the Giants.
I will lose my effing mind if Quinnen Williams falls to us. Dude is a BEAST.
April 4th, 2019 at 8:16 pm
Great effort / article but it won’t happen at 5 , even though they are ultra thin a LB
April 4th, 2019 at 8:17 pm
I also don’t think Gary goes in the top 15
April 4th, 2019 at 8:18 pm
Put y’all up on a little game. When BA took over the gig one of his first statements was “Levante David is my middle linebacker” now why would he publicly make a point of saying that??? When you figure it out in your mind you’ll see who from day one who this man has been eyeing in this upcoming draft.
April 4th, 2019 at 8:19 pm
Joe gives up. Why?
April 4th, 2019 at 8:20 pm
Just don’t understand anyone who says a prototypical 4-3 DE should be picked 1st.
This in NOT gonna be the Tampa 2 anymore from a 4-3 base.
They even questioned how JPP would work and BA said they wanted him in Arizona.
I can totally live with a 2nd or 3rd round linebacker only if we take a DT at 5.
White should be the pick at 5 if Q is gone.
April 4th, 2019 at 8:20 pm
Considering Levante has been a weak side LB his whole career.
April 4th, 2019 at 8:36 pm
@Billy_43
Teams are only in their base defense ~30% of the time these days. Even though the defense might not be a base 4-3, they will still use 4 man fronts in Nickel packages.
3 Tech and DE are still needs
April 4th, 2019 at 8:42 pm
Bucs just signed a DT and below is a quote from an article about Todd Bowles.
It’s aggressive. As Greg Cosell stated, “Now, you could argue that they don’t have a pure pass-rusher, but this is where Bowles comes in. This team blitzes more than any team in the NFL, and they blitz more on first down than any team in the NFL, and they’re creative with their pressures. They’re also very good with disguise.”
Now what about that makes you think DE will be pick 5?
April 4th, 2019 at 8:48 pm
I watched some tape of white, and he was getting blown off of the ball in the run game, TB could use him for sure, but not at #5. I think he makes it to the second round after the tape I watched. That being said this is all speculation, good chance I’m wrong with this prediction. I wouldn’t want him at 5 but if he made it to 37 I’d pick him for sure
April 4th, 2019 at 8:51 pm
Mel Kiper’s latest 2 round mock has us taking Devin White at 5 and then Jeffrey Simmons at 39. That is a dream start to the draft imo.
He also doesnt have some notable EDGE players not picked in the 2 rounds. Chase Winovich, Christian Miller, and Zach Allen to name a few.
Bucs should dream the draft plays out like that.
April 4th, 2019 at 9:13 pm
Draftwire USA Today has a 4 round mock draft. I hope there’s is exact. It has us trading back with Cincinnati getting there 2nd and 3rd. With the 11th pick getting Oliver. In the 2nd getting Lindstrom the gaurd from Boston college and the safety from Florida’s Chauncey Gardner. The 3rd round getting polite from Florida and Campbell the speedster wide receiver kick returner from Ohio state. Then in the 4th getting the second best running back from Alabama. Who I think is better than the guy they have hyped up. If the draft goes like that I would be ecstatic. Stud defensive tackle and good end with high ceiling. Top 3 gaurd in draft.
April 4th, 2019 at 9:46 pm
Uhh Billy making too sense could get you banned around here bro. Be careful😊.
April 4th, 2019 at 9:47 pm
I’m talking bout Billy just gave y’all the breakdown and most of you still can’t see the vision.
April 4th, 2019 at 9:50 pm
And y’all think just because we can’t jump into a nickle that automatically means four down linemen. You might wanna watch 2018 New York Jets defensive film and see for yourself what Bowles was doing last season.
April 4th, 2019 at 9:51 pm
DE’s and 3 techs are not the focal point of these folks scheme. If you can’t understand now you’ll get it come week 1.
April 4th, 2019 at 9:57 pm
Tell you something else that’s gone rock some of y’all world. These cats are BIG on that safety position. BA drafted Honeybadger,once Todd was in charge he drafted Jamal Adams. Two studs.. Don’t cry when they draft Johnathan Abrams in the second. He’s In that same mold.
April 4th, 2019 at 10:08 pm
Lmfao! No way in hell does licht (with his job on the line) select a LB.im leaning towards Williams. Specially since rumors are floating the bucs are trying hard to trade GMC. Also i think if ed oliver is there by pick 30 we jump up from the 2nd round and take him.
April 4th, 2019 at 10:11 pm
My man el buc just said Ed Oliver and 30h pic In the same post. Lost for words.
April 4th, 2019 at 11:07 pm
Q Williams
Bosa
J Allen
Oliver
D White
The nice thing is it is a guarantee to get one of these if the Bucs stay at 5.
April 5th, 2019 at 3:04 am
Polk,
He also said he’s “leaning towards williams”.
—careful don’t pull anything. …
April 5th, 2019 at 6:59 am
Loyaltotheend Section 312 Says:
April 4th, 2019 at 6:23 pm
LB’s are the strength of a 3-4 defense not Ends…
Tell that to the Houston Texans and JJ Wyatt. Clowney was sometimes considered a linebacker and sometimes a defensive end. But when they went to the nickel which is about 70 percent of downs, Clowney was lining up as one of the 4 rush guys on the defensive line.
Think of Josh Allen, Brian Burns or Montez Sweat in that Clowney role.
April 5th, 2019 at 7:04 am
Jeffbuc Says:
April 4th, 2019 at 9:13 pm
Draftwire USA Today has a 4 round mock draft.
Who knows if they are right as you saw but teams value rush defensive ends so much that it is hard for me to believe that Polite will not be picked in the late 1st to early 2nd.
April 5th, 2019 at 8:37 am
Well, her mock is based of data vs. what teams will actually do. 99/100 times AZ is taking a QB here at #1, but I guess they could take Williams. Deandre Baker at #2? No.
Kyler Murray to Dolphins is plausible, but again, I think AZ is taking him. If not, we could see Dolphins trade up for Murray or Haskins. Giants will probably want a QB as well.
2nd Rd taking Lindstrom at RG.
“Overview:
Lindstrom is one of the most athletic interior lineman in the 2019 draft with a rare ability to match movement quickness with anyone across from him. His quickness can place him in position to make blocks on both the first and second levels and he has an impressive ability to cover lateral space and protect his gaps as a pass blocker. Lindstrom is scrappy at the point of attack but lacks the length, mass and strength some teams will want. His final destination could be as a guard/center in a zone scheme where he can become a long-time starter.”
April 5th, 2019 at 9:26 am
Buccaneerscotty Says:
“If most the people on this site don’t want him the I know he’s the right pick lmao”
~~~~~~~~~
Haha, good one man. LOL love it.
I too am finding this possible pick as very intriguing.
April 5th, 2019 at 9:39 am
Anonymous Says:
“@Joebucsfan: Why do you NOT post my comments?”
((((((((((
Why would they, with a dumb name like Anonymous?
April 6th, 2019 at 10:31 am
Jason Licht is very good at scouting LSU linebackers.