Hideous Bucs Drafting
April 25th, 2019
“I’m going to Vegas next year Ed and you will still have to deal with all of those m@#$%^&&cking know-it-alls in Tampa. Jiminy Christmas!”
Reading this will make any Bucs fan want to vomit all over his keyboard.
Regular readers know Joe has often said the way the Bucs draft in the second round, the team is much better off trading those picks to either move up in the first round or for established players.
Well, after reading this deep dive on the Bucs’ draft history in the 21st century by Greg Auman of The Athletic, the Bucs would be better off going full-blown George Allen and trading entire drafts for proven players and simply relying on undrafted free agents to replenish the roster.
Perhaps the Bucs’ best drafting in this timeframe is the second round, which gave the current team both Smith and Marpet on the offensive line, as well as linebacker Lavonte David. A more recent sampling of the second round isn’t as flattering, with kicker Roberto Aguayo (2016) a punchline for Jason Licht’s critics.
It doesn’t show up in these charts, but the Bucs have been better in recent years at identifying undrafted talent than they’ve been at hitting on late-round picks. Tight end Cameron Brate and receiver Adam Humphries were undrafted in 2014 and 2015, respectively, and the team’s longest-tenured player, tackle Demar Dotson, joined the team undrafted in 2009.
It is truly appalling how bad the Bucs have been at the draft in the past 20 years. Per Auman’s information, the Bucs have been so terrible on what is now considered Day 3 of the draft, rounds 4-7, the Bucs’ front office may as well head to a beach bar on Treasure Island on Saturdays of the draft and let interns make the picks.
Seriously, when you read Auman’s piece, you realize a drunk in a bar throwing darts at a draft board could do just as well as professionals being paid seven- and six-figures a year to do this for a living.
When a team has better luck signing guys who weren’t good enough to be drafted than the team has at the draft itself, there is a serious problem.
April 25th, 2019 at 2:03 pm
Nice cheery article on draft day. Bring on the gloom.
April 25th, 2019 at 2:08 pm
A freaking MEN
April 25th, 2019 at 2:09 pm
No truer words spoken…If you personally go back and look, it’s no exaggeration. 20 frickin years! Day 3 picks = nearly nothing
April 25th, 2019 at 2:10 pm
The later in the Draft picks are made, the better the chances you draft someone that doesn’t turn out well.
This article actually “jokes” about just trading most of the non-1st round picks to trade back into the 1st round to draft higher rated talent, but it’s actually not a bad strategy.
Any team is better off giving up their 2nd and 3rd rounder to move back into the 1st round.
April 25th, 2019 at 2:11 pm
What happens when you place positional importance and need over BPA.
April 25th, 2019 at 2:12 pm
So you think the coaching in secondary and running game was good the last 2 years? None of those coaches have NFL jobs . What does that tell you?
April 25th, 2019 at 2:13 pm
2014-ASJ – bust
2015-D Smith / Ali Marpet – cornerstone starters
2016-Noah Spence / Roberto Aguayo – a question mark with potential (5.5 sacks as a part time player rookie) and a bust
2017-Justin Evans – starting player
2018-Ronald Jones, MJ Stewart, Carlton Davis – at least 1 starter in that group
9 total players
Only 2 definitive busts so far.
At least 4 starters – 2 OL and 2 secondary.
Even if Noah Spence / Ronald Jones / MJ Stewart are all busts that’s a 45% success rate.
I’m reading an article right now stating the average success rate of 1st round picks is 53%.
So Licht – regardless of this article – has to date been about average in the 2nd round to date.
Average+ GM in the draft.
Below average GM in general tho.
April 25th, 2019 at 2:14 pm
But guys, we have so many well thought out Bucs fans that randomly assign players like ASJ, Alex Cappa and VHIII as great picks who assure us that Jason Licht is a really, really good GM!
We can’t possibly let any amount of research or objectivity get in the way of the fact that MJ Stewart and Ronald Jones are going to the Pro Bowl next year. I bet those two will be at Alex Cappa’s Hall of Fame ceremony to just to get a feel for what their ceremony will be like a few years later. 2018. Best. Draft. Ever.
April 25th, 2019 at 2:16 pm
LOLZ @ OUR JENIUS NEW HEAD COACH…
In an NFL.com article he mentions if you “Draft for need you get fired” and that in the draft you have to just draft Best Player Available.
I’m sorry, but that’s DUMB.
In the era of the Salary Cap, you have to draft for need. Teams don’t have the luxury of paying for multiple players at a high value position here some will never see the field. Just can’t do it.
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001027837/article/bucs-bruce-arians-you-draft-for-need-you-get-fired
April 25th, 2019 at 2:16 pm
LOLZ @ OUR JENIUS NEW HEAD COACH…
In an NFL .com article he mentions if you “Draft for need you get fired” and that in the draft you have to just draft Best Player Available.
I’m sorry, but that’s DUMB.
In the era of the Salary Cap, you have to draft for need. Teams don’t have the luxury of paying for multiple players at a high value position here some will never see the field. Just can’t do it.
April 25th, 2019 at 2:16 pm
Dang I’m dumb I misread how this was mostly about rounds 4-7
Yeah Licht has sucked there. Kwon being the only gem in 5 drafts basically unless Ryan Smith does something
April 25th, 2019 at 2:20 pm
Yeah, great strategy…except for one thing: Licht drafts better than he does in FA. Yes, Virginia, HE is the reason why this team has no money, and has a slew of bad players, and why serviceable players are not here now. If an engine burns oil, it doesn’t do anything by putting in more oil other than prolonging the inevitable failure.
April 25th, 2019 at 2:27 pm
Licht is a horrible personnel guy and he learned tehtrade in Arizaon from the arians camp which arguably is as bad if not worse as personnel people. The cardinals arguably are the worst team in the nfl with not a bright future, even if they draft murray they are not anywhere near where teh browns were last year with that defense. Then you have the bucs which are the bottom 3 in the league, so you have a horrible personnel guy in licht and another guy in arians who is just as bad, and they are running the draft this year……GO BUCS
April 25th, 2019 at 2:32 pm
Licht already makes his most important decisions over wings and bottomless beer mugs might as well hold draft day war room activity at a beach bar.
April 25th, 2019 at 2:33 pm
Its because they take injured guys and “developmental” underclassmen. Also guys they project to other positions. No idea why. Find guys who are ready to play now and can make an impact. Maybe Bruce gets in his ear on that one.
April 25th, 2019 at 2:45 pm
Going back 20 years is absolutely absurd. It has NOTHING to do with tonight…I mean LITERALLY NOTHING!!! Totally different people making the calls…and a totally different NFL!!!!
If Lee hadn’t ordered Pickett’s charge at Gettysburg the South might have won the entire war. So freaking what.
Talk about crying over spilt milk!!!! This milk was spilt so long ago it’s dried up and gone.
Lord C’s 52% ratio is fine and the common number posted. But I was reading yesterday where 75% of the top 5 make it…62% of 6-10 make it…then about 50% of the rest of the first round.
So that 52% is the average. Pick #5 is on the cusp of being special.
If JW is our franchise QB Licht’s draft record is fine. Would you rather be Arizona at minimum seriously discussing using the #1 pick on a QB after drafting a QB in the first round last year.
How about the saga of Ryan Leaf and Peyton Manning? Leaf was 6-5 235 with a cannon arm…both he and Manning were viewed as can’t miss. Indy picked the right one first and Leaf contributed to that 50% rule. And this was among the first two picks where the success rate is supposed to be 75%
How about JW and Mariota? Both were considered can’t miss and went 1-2. JW still has a shot at being a franchise QB if he finally shows his stuff this year. Mariota not so much. Again 50-50 and that’s ONLY if JW turns out like we all hope and expect this year.
It takes no brains to dig up old MEANINGLESS stuff and try to apply it to today. There is NO connection.
The HARDEST position to draft correctly is at QB…a position littered with draft failures. IF JW is the franchise QB we still expect then Licht has done a very good job….if JW falters…Licht doesn’t look nearly as good. So I totally get those who have already written off JW as also writing off Licht. I still hold hope for JW.
As for constantly harping on Licht’s failures…I just finished a piece from a New England fan site that listed Bill Belichik’s 13 horrid draft picks. Yep EVERYBODY has busts…it’s not 50% for nothing. So listing Licht’s failures without matching up the other 50% is just WRONG and ignorant.
The 2nd round crap is coincidence not causation. Likewise we can’t say he’s great at 4th rounders because of Kwon. If you look at Licht’s entire body of work it’s decent and might be very good IF…IF JW works out…that is Licht’s most important pick.
April 25th, 2019 at 2:47 pm
SCBucsFan Says
“Nice cheery article on draft day. Bring on the gloom.”
LOL. I thought the same thing!
Ironic that their best drafts were second rounders too, especially since Joe and others claim they suck at second rounds.
April 25th, 2019 at 2:48 pm
Most forget that Peyton Barber is also an UDFA……..and Auclair to a lesser extent…….so, yes….very good with UDFAs.
April 25th, 2019 at 2:49 pm
once we start winning, all will be forgotten…..
#REALISTKNOWSNOTHING!!!!!!…GO BUCS!!!!!
April 25th, 2019 at 2:49 pm
Dusthty Rhothdes Says
“Licht is a horrible personnel guy…”
History proves you wrong about that. But hey, why let facts get in the way of trolling?
The truth is, Jason Licht had one bad draft. For the rest he bats around 50%, which is among the best in the league.
And for every bad free agent signing, I can show you a good free agent signing he made.
April 25th, 2019 at 2:54 pm
Someone really want to be entertained, go back and look at the last 5 Patriot drafts, especially the first 2 rounds. I’ve already highlighted it in a previous post. Its horrific. It highlights just how important coaching is.
April 25th, 2019 at 3:06 pm
The team is 27-53 during the Jason Licht reign of terror which is now entering year 6. Only bad teams led by bad GMs end up 5-11 with very little cap space.
April 25th, 2019 at 3:24 pm
Joe, think positive … TONIGHT’S GONNA BE DIFFERENT. Bucs have an excellent chance of exiting this draft with some critical improvements on BOTH defense AND offense. All we need to do is draft a starter capable DLineman, MLB, OLineman & RB. Piece of cake in this draft, even for Jason Licht, as long as he doesn’t try to get cute once again. (Don’t over-think it Jason). Out of our remaining 3 draft picks, I wouldn’t be surprised to see us take a CB, Safety plus another DLineman.
April 25th, 2019 at 3:24 pm
Bonzai says history proves wrong that Licht is a horrible personnel guy?
JASON LICHT’S RECORD IS 27-53 AS GM. WORSE THAN DOMINIK. Really dude, look up delusional disorder. You say the words “history proves you wrong” without any shred of history to support what you just said. And that’s not true about every bad free agent signing being matched with a good one unless you go by your Alex Cappa standard of whoever you personally like is good.
I’ll start with your thought experiment though…Michael Johnson, Anthony Collins, Josh McCown, Alteurraun Verner, Mike Jenkins, Bruce Carter, Henry Melton, George Johnson, Nick Folk, Chandler Cantanzaro, JR Sweezy (who did nothing more than cash a check and be below average before being cut), Robert Ayers, Chris Swaggy Baker, Vinny Curry, Mitch Unrein, Beau Allen, TJ Ward, re-signing William Gholston/Doug Martin/Brent Grimes to years they never lived up to.
Ok Bonzai, CANNOT WAIT to see what magical list you come up with.
April 25th, 2019 at 3:27 pm
Sony Michel last year. No draft picks in 1st or 2nd round in 2017. No 1st round pick in 2016. 2015 was bad. 2014 got them Jimmy G. Yeah, not great by any means but when you’re perennial Super Bowl contenders you tend to draft in the late rounds. Teams like the Patriots can easily afford missing on players and not missing a beat. For the Bucs, one or two bad picks can doom a GM and coaching staff. Licht’s moves have doomed two coaching staffs.
April 25th, 2019 at 3:40 pm
Some fans really don’t get the concept that the Patriots and all other perennial playoff teams get penalized in the draft by being slotted at the end of the round. Conversely, the historically bad teams like the Bucs and Browns gets rewarded for bad records by picking at the top of the draft each year.
You want to compare the Bucs drafts to another team? Choose the Browns, they are the only other NFL team to go a decade without being in the playoffs. No idea why someone would realize that fans actively root for the team to lose after it’s obvious that the team is only playing for draft position then simultaneously try to compare the Bucs drafts to the Patriots or Steelers LOL
April 25th, 2019 at 3:41 pm
You know how you screw up a draft, but bypassing star players because you don’t think their “value” is good enough. That’s how you pass on a year one ALL-PRO like James to take a 3-4 NT who averaged 3.5 sacks a year in college. Vita had a nice couple of games last year, and disappeared for the rest – he certainly could end up being really good but unless he’s an all-pro the Bucs took the wrong guy.
April 25th, 2019 at 3:43 pm
I would trade away every 6th and 7th round pick every year to maneuver around in the 3rd and 4th round.
April 25th, 2019 at 3:51 pm
IT’S LIKE THE BUC’S HAVE BEEN DRAFTING IN THE PASSED WITH THE HEAD IN THEIR PANTS INSTEAD OF THE ONE ON THEIR SHOULDER AND GOT NOTHING OUT OF IT. LOL……
April 25th, 2019 at 4:21 pm
Tom S
I like many others have agreed that Licht has done horrible in FA…picking out of desperation. Although FA also includes UDFA’s and Licht has done VERY well there…Brate…Hump..and as TBBF points out our starting running back Barber.
Drafting has been totally different. He’s done as well as others and better than many.
TNEW pointed out a great exercise…check out Belichik’s drafts and as I read on an NE fan site BB has at least 13 picks that totally sucked. And let’s be honest…do we give Belichik credit for Brady? Really? BB and the ENTIRE freaking roster of NFL GM’s scrwd the pooch badly on Brady. Picking arguably the greatest QB ever in the SIXTH round is an embarrassment to the entire league.
April 25th, 2019 at 4:23 pm
There are as many starting undrafted players in the league as fourth thru 7. It has nothing to do with drafting skill it’s math. Pure and simple. You have four players drafted competing with 20 plus undrafted.
April 25th, 2019 at 4:32 pm
In 1990 the Bucs took the defensive lineman/pass rusher Keith McCants over the inside LB Junior Seau…
Everyone thought Seau was a star, but the “value” wasn’t there I guess.
April 25th, 2019 at 4:32 pm
Tom S, preach!!!! Is Bonzai Jason Lichts burner acct, there is no defense of jason licht he is top 2 worst personnel guy in NFL, tied w his old boss of the cardinals. Id go get daniel jerimiah if he would want a gm job
April 25th, 2019 at 4:41 pm
Before we look at Jason Licht’s UDFA in a vacuum that presumes that UDFA’s make no impact allow me to name some Bucs UDFA’s throughout the years…
Donald Penn, Michael Bennett, Shelton Quarles, Al Singleton, Jeff Gooch, Ryan Nece, Karl “The Truth” Williams, Earnest Graham.
Wikipedia ANY NFL Draft, at the bottom of the rounds you’ll see notable UDFA’s. It happens every year. Jason Licht hitting a couple of them is no different then literally every GM in the league. The reason is because the NFL used to have 12 round drafts back in 1992. Back in 1992 Brad Culpepper was a 10th round selection.
If we expand beyond the Bucs we can look at the 2016 NFL Draft (abysmal for the Bucs, not so much for everyone else). The Rams signed a guy named Cory Littleton as an UDFA. He was a 2018 NFL Pro Bowler and 2nd team All Pro. Instead of drafting a kicker in Rd 2, Jon Robinson GM of the Titans signed Aldrick Rosas to be his kicker. Rosas made the Pro Bowl in 2018 and was also a second team All-Pro.
The problem with some of these comments is that either the commenter is cherry picking specific drafts of teams late in the draft or looking at Licht’s “accomplishments” in a vacuum as though no one else has hit on a UDFA before (it happens every year).
April 25th, 2019 at 4:49 pm
Also now that I’m thinking about it, wasn’t there a Bucs radio show in the late 90’s, Jorge and “The Truth”, with two former UDFA’s, starting LG Jorge Diaz and Bucs all-time leading Punt Returner Karl Williams?
April 25th, 2019 at 5:23 pm
Let me make sure I’ve got this right. The most significant draft we’ve had in years will start in a couple of hours, and you all are biting on the ‘Hideous Bucs Drafting’ beachball that Joe tossed out for grins? FORWARD … LOOK FORWARD.
There’s a new sheriff in town. I don’t give a hoot how Arizona drafted while he was there (BA wasn’t the GM BTW). What I care about RIGHT NOW is how well we do in filling the HOLES that we’ve obviously got on offense & defense. And yes, with very little $$$ this is our BIG CHANCE … tonight … to fill in the foundation for this year and beyond.
Several possible ways to do that, depending on what the other 31 teams do. BA says we’ve been ready for this night for weeks. Awesome! Batten down the hatches, full speed ahead. Fire them damn cannons. We’re in the Red Zone … let’s score this time.
April 25th, 2019 at 6:38 pm
I’ve said it for years, I’m available for consult. I do draft as a hobby and love it. Hit me up on email Joes or Licht. Don’t care, the advice is free.
No joke, no embellishments, I’m much much better at this than the last 3 GMs.
I bet many folks on here are..but seriously. I’m better at this than them.
(Hint:it’s not that difficult)
April 25th, 2019 at 7:05 pm
so many dump comments here..
so many people with no clue are
defending Jason Licht while the Roster
is a bottom 3 Roster and Bucs couldn’t
spend anything in Free Agency and couldn’t
even retain some servicable players and the
bucs do keep a typicall Buccaneer looser: the LT..
o line is sh… it besides Ali Marpert..
WR/TE group:
besides OJ Howard, Godwin, Evans, shhhhhh.. it
Brate is very servicable..
WR/TE group is one 7njury away from being tota bulll sh.. it
QB lets see (again)
i guess he will fail but its just a guess..
i see following happen: injury to WR/TE will be excuse for average performence..
he will sign a big contract and will be average for ages or sth like that..
Defense = total mess besides some bright spots..
this is gonna take at least 2 years (including this very draft as first year)
to turn into a ral winner..
lets see if Bruce can change this Organizational-Mess of a “professionell” team