Getting Outdrafted
April 24th, 2019
Want to know one reason why the Bucs reside in Buccaneers Cove (last place in the NFC South)? Well, one could point to several reasons.
A nasty habit of hiring incompetent coaches is a good (bad?) start. Moronic player personnel decisions is another (highlighted by tossing Michael Bennett and Darrelle Revis out onto Martin Luther King Blvd. and not even getting a warm beer in return is key).
Per jet-flyin’, kiss–stealin‘, data-analyzin’, Bucs-film-studyin’, limousine-ridin’ Thomas Bassinger of the Tampa Bay Times, it is no more complex than the Bucs are being outdrafted by their NFC South counterparts.
Bassinger and the Times decided to do serious research on the draft the past few years. Simply put, the Dixie Chicks, the Stinking Panthers and the Saints are outdrafting the Bucs and Bassinger types that the gap is widening.
Because the Bucs, by virtue of their poor regular season finishes, often pick earlier in the draft, you would think that they would land more high-performing players. The numbers, however, show that hasn’t been the case. …
Of more immediate concern to the Bucs is that the other teams in their division have been outperforming them in the draft. The Panthers beat expectations by 27 percent, the Falcons by 18 percent and the Saints by 8 percent. In fact, Atlanta and New Orleans produced two of the five best classes since 2014. In 2016, the Falcons landed safety Keanu Neal, linebacker Deion Jones and tight end Austin Hooper with their first three picks. In 2017, the Saints landed cornerback Marshon Lattimore, offensive tackle Ryan Ramczyk, safety Marcus Williams and running back Alvin Kamara with their first four picks. It’s no wonder Tampa Bay has finished last in the NFC South in four of the past five seasons.
As Joe pointed out yesterday, second-round draft picks have killed this organization. It’s not a Jason Licht thing. It goes all the way back to when Chucky first came here. And it hasn’t improved.
That is why Joe has no issue whatsoever if the Bucs think they have that franchise-changing defensive lineman on the board to start the draft tomorrow night (tomorrow night!) and use their second-round pick as bait to move up and get their guy.
And then hope by some divine intervention that guy isn’t an inside linebacker.
April 24th, 2019 at 12:25 am
“One year players scare me”- BA.. But y’all swinging from Q.
April 24th, 2019 at 12:27 am
Can’t blame the saints they had one decent draft in 2017 but beyond that they have been as bad as us. Not sure why licht over thinks the draft instead of taking the best player at a position but obviously the owners no nothing about evaluating draft picks otherwise they would see how bad he is At drafting, all his hits come late in the draft and he butchers early picks
April 24th, 2019 at 12:29 am
the worst part is that in most cases fans on all the buc boards be clamoring for the same players our rivals draft. Case in point honestly the list is too long but Ramcyck and Donte Jackson stand out not to mention Michael Thomas and Dalvin Cook oh wait….Derwin James? What?
What is it about the Bucs and FSU players? You’d think Derrick Brooks and Warrick Dunn were enough proof but wtfdik?
April 24th, 2019 at 1:17 am
I love when idiots repeat stuff they’ve heard, without any thought to whether or not its the truth, simply because it supports their arguement. Licht sucks at drafting cause someone said so. Winston, Smith, Marpet, Alexander, Evans, ASJ, Pamphile, Howard, Godwin, Beckwith and Vea. All players that have produced either here or elsewhere. That’s 11 players. If you lump all the other draft picks together as busts, that’s a 32.3% success rate. Pretty freaking low and does seem to support the premise of being an idiot on draft day. Except the fact the league average over the last 20 years is a 31% success rate. So Licht is 1 percentage point higher than average and that’s with including all the players from last year as busts except Vea. If you eliminate last years draft, because it’s truly impossible to get a realistic evaluation for at least 2 years or more, that success rate for Licht jumps to 38.5%. Try doing some research and actually think for yourselves instead of getting your opinion from someone else. Worthless lemmings.
April 24th, 2019 at 1:24 am
And everyone likes to throw Derwin James as an example of his miscues. Derwin James would have sucked if they had drafted him. Do any of you actually believe he would have come into this defense last year and balled out? Bad coaching, bad scheme and an inadequate pass rush would have doomed him just as it doomed everyone else. And then all you guys claiming you were all for them drafting James would be saying the exact opposite now.
April 24th, 2019 at 1:55 am
Well put you Buttmonkey, I just wanted to say that, but you have a good point.
How can we sit here and dump on the horrible scheme and coaches then in the same breath say the draft picks suck?
Does the scheme suck because the draft picks suck or do the draft picks suck because of the terrible scheme? I think most football fans know the answer to that magic question,
Outdrafted? Try outcoached in every way.
April 24th, 2019 at 1:58 am
None of those teams who out-drafted us traded away their early draft picks. If we are to mimic success, perhaps let’s start here.
April 24th, 2019 at 2:21 am
Very good and thorough article. In response to WhatTheBuc cherry picking some drafts from playoff contenders picking at the end of the round vs Licht who only started with a pick outside of the top 10 once in six years here I decided to dive into the Bucs draft capital per year vs the median NFL team picking 16th overall. I used Rich Hill’s draft value chart which starts at 1000 for the top pick: patspulpit.com/platform/amp/2018/4/21/17256758/2018-nfl-draft-value-chart-rich-hill
So if you look at a team squarely in the middle of each round, the team that you expect to be your “average” which is a hypothetical team that selects 16th in every round and gets the 16th of 32 compensatory pick you get a draft value of 528.9.
Now let’s look at what Jason Licht has had to work with vs that league average value by the total value of all of the draft picks he made each year:
2014: 686.35 2015: 1298.81 2016: 654.27 2017: 486.35 2018: 785.23
Now if you add those points up, divide by 5, you get a yearly average draft value of 780.2. That average starting position for Jason Licht is 148% the league average value of 528.9. Meaning Licht should have essentially gotten 1.5 more starters, Pro Bowlers, All Pro’s and HOFers than a team picking in the middle of the round and significantly more than a team like the Saints, Pats or Steelers that commonly start picking at the end of the round due to their wins.
So dear Buc fans, what say ye about your emporer with no clothes and his drafting prowess?? 🤔
April 24th, 2019 at 2:24 am
Lichts a moron hand picked by a moron, simple as that
April 24th, 2019 at 2:26 am
Buttmonkey-
very well said. I think the Agayo pick was so bad, that it’s easy to jump to the conclusion that he’s bad on draft day. But what if Agayo would’ve worked out great? Bucs kicking team has cost us games for years now. If Agayo lived up to expectations and we had a Matt Bryant type dependable kicker for the next 10 years, even as foolish as it is to draft a kicker that early (and it is still very foolish), it might look like it was somewhat justified. Especially with how much moving the XP has wrecked kickers, he may have looked ahead of his time. But since it failed so badly, it’s really embarrassing. If he drafts even averagely this year and our secondary matures and plays well in Bowles system, then licht could completely change his reputation.
April 24th, 2019 at 2:40 am
Well ButtMonkey, if Licht is given $1.48 to spend for every dollar that all of his friends get to spend and he comes back with the same dollar return they do would you rather give all your money, say 148k to get you with Jason Licht so he can give you back 100k or would you rather give 148k with the other guys and get your 148k back?
To your point about players being schemed in or out of success. If your premise is true and all of these professional athletes who have been playing football for 10-20 years need is a good professional head coach to make them successful, then why aren’t more draft busts successful on their second team? Why isnt a guy like Johnny Manziel or Jamarcus Russell getting signed to a second team despite their draft status and college accolades? Oh that’s because these are adults and not young children and even the worst NFL coach knows more about football than the best beat writers and fans in the league.
There really is nothing like an idiot who calls other people idiots.
April 24th, 2019 at 2:49 am
Tom S, nice, that is some crazy statistical work you put in there but the draft is anything but a perfect science or your numbers would hold true.
The human elements such as how hard a player works at his craft, does he go to a team with a good scheme and does he fit, and also can he stay healthy or does he deal with nagging injuries constantly.
I am of the belief that the great players fall into great circumstances much of the time. If Steve Young stays on the Bucs, does he end up a hall of famer? Most likely not because the circumstances (bad team) don’t lend themselves to success.
What if we drafted Derwin James and lined him up 30 yards deep, would he be a pro bowler year one? Probably not.
Who knows David Carr might have been a Super Bowl QB if he wasn’t drafted to an expansion team with a garbage Oline.
I’ll end my rant, but my point is it’s too hard to judge these draft picks who have played under some tough circumstances in what I believe to be a poorly coached, outdated scheme.
April 24th, 2019 at 2:53 am
Buttmonkey vs. Tom S
Two arguments saturated w/analytics obviously!
I’m riding with Buttmonkey on this one! Its simple: bad-coaching! And absolutely!
Derwin James would’ve sucked in our scheme!
April 24th, 2019 at 3:02 am
Let’s face it…Licht’s mistakes haven’t been just in the second round. They’ve been from round one all the way through round seven. Plus undrafted free agents. Plus NFL free agents. Plus dealing with the Bucs’ own unrestricted free agents.
Truth is, Licht is an average-at-best GM in this league and has the same EXACT win-loss record through five seasons that Mark Dominik had. Not even a single win more. Not one. How do you spin that?
April 24th, 2019 at 3:05 am
Also to the ButtMonkey who tries to support their point by arbitrarily naming players as “produced” including ASJ who was a total bust here (and elsewhere, he’s never had more than 357 yards receiving in a year and had 90 yards last year for Jacksonville) as well as Kevin Pamphile who appeared in 3 games for the Titans last year and Kendell Beckwith who will probably never play another down in the NFL after his ankle injury…
I ask the dear genius, non-lemming poster what the line for “produced” is? If ASJ “produced” as a second round pick, then what high draft pick that actually played for the Bucs didn’t “produce”? What is your standard of production? Is it 90 yards receiving for Jacksonville? Is that what the Bucs next second round pick needs to do to be a successful pick? By the same standard didn’t Eric Curry, Adrian Clayborn, Kenyatta Walker, DaQuan Bowers, Gaines Adams, Johnthan Banks, Reidel Anthony all “produce” because they literally played and started games for the Bucs? Is what they did any different than half the players you named?
April 24th, 2019 at 3:08 am
This franchise hasn’t had a competent GM from a drafting or free agent perspective since Rich McKay. That must be a record-setting stretch of futility if I’ve ever seen one.
Until that changes this team will NEVER be able to compete in the NFC South. Somehow, some way, they need to figure out how to get a competent GM into position at One Buc. And I don’t think the Glazer boys have the competence to make that decision, unfortunately.
April 24th, 2019 at 3:09 am
Tom, guys like Demarcus Russell and Jonny Football are out of the league because they didn’t have it between the ears and they didn’t work at their craft enough.
Mark Barron sure got better on his second team. Jake Plummer, Steve Young, Rich Gannon, Nick Foles, shoot even Alex Smith revived his career in Kansas City. Trent Dilfer won a SB, Doug Williams too, there are plenty of players who moved on from one team after not meeting expectations and went on to have great season with new teams.
Did anyone ever think Matt Ryan was a MVP quality QB? Hell no until Shanahan coached him, you think he is winning an MVP next year with Koetter?
April 24th, 2019 at 3:34 am
I really hate to dissappoint anyone that thinks that because the Rams switched Barron into a linebacker and gave him a lot of money that must mean he got a lot better..he didn’t. He might’ve been able to use some more skills in some areas, but his average tackles per year and interceptions are almost identical, his PD’s per year are higher as a safety but his TFL’s were higher as a LBer. Basically same player just in a different position. So no, your argument that he’s magically a better player than he was in Tampa isn’t very valid.
Mark Barron TB (3 seasons): 226 Tackles 177 Solo 20 Pass Defl 3 INTs
Mark Barron LA (5 seasons): 398 Tackles 302 Solo 19 Pass Defl 5 INTs
pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BarrMa00.htm
Nick Foles is an odd one to mention since his best year was in his first go-around in 2013 with Phi (27 TD’s 2 INT’s) before he performed poorly one year in StL and eventually returned to Phi as a backup.
Alex Smith literally went 13-3 with San Fran leading the 49ers into the playoffs with a 90 QB rating in 2011 then went 6-2-1 in 2012 with San Fran with a 104 QB rating before going to the Chiefs. Basically he turned a corner by age 27 and never looked back. So how exactly did Alex Smith “revive his career” in Kansas City?
It really helps to look players up before you posit ideas about them on a post and find out that it’s not like you remember them.
pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FoleNi00.ht
pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SmitAl03.htm
April 24th, 2019 at 4:03 am
Fun facts about Trent Dilfer :
Played in parts of 13 seasons in the NFL until age 35.
Never had a season where he completed 60% of his passes in his career.
Had only two seasons out of 13 played where his QB rating was 80+ (80 was considered average at the time).
One of those two was the 1997 season where the Bucs started 5-0 and Trent made his only Pro Bowl.
Dilfer, then signed with the Ravens to be Tony Banks backup and started due to Banks ineffectiveness then rode one of the best defense in league history to the championship.
After winning the Super Bowl with the Ravens, Trent, the only SB winning QB not retained by his team in NFL history, signed to be the backup for the Seahawks and Matt Hasselbeck. Because obviously a 29 year old starting QB for the SB champ has tons of value on the open market…oh wait, everyone knew he was the same QB he’d always been and still didn’t offer him a starting gig.
You know it’s kind of weird how these examples of players keep reinforcing that they are relatively similar regardless of which team they end up going to. You’d almost think there is something to that…
April 24th, 2019 at 4:41 am
Tom you obviously have a lot of free time, I wasn’t trying to be a d!ck but you excel in that area I must say.
I’ll just say Dilfer was a bust or he would’ve got a second contract. A bust went on to win a Super Bowl. He didn’t win one here, neither did Doug Williams, and neither did Steve Young.
Alex Smith was a total bust until Harbaugh came and saved him but he still lost his spot to Kap. Plus all 3 of his pro bowls were in a Chiefs uniform.
Foles lost his job to Case Keenum and then the next year became super bowl MVP in a season where Carson Wentz played until he got hurt in week 14 and was a leading MVP candidate in his second season, obviously a very talented team.
I hardly think any of those examples are similar on both teams.
April 24th, 2019 at 6:14 am
The quoted article is not accurate.
And last year’s draft was a lot better than people think.
April 24th, 2019 at 6:18 am
Analytics? You guys are hilarious! You’re using analytics to bolster the argument that Jason Licht is NOT a bad GM?!
Analyze this then: What is the Buccaneers record under Jason Light’s management?
Oh, sure, there are more variables than just drafting that affect wins and losses. There are those other GM duties like free agency and hiring/firing coaches just to name a few. Those duties also fall under the office of GM, no?
Well, simple deduction concludes that the Buccaneers are NOWHERE near their rivals in terms of the only variable that matters in team sports…..WINS!
If you are a fan, you know this conclusion to be accurate and factual, or in this case, “common knowledge.”
But please continue to tell us how dumb we are as it pertains to the”drafting ‘success’ of Jason Licht!”
April 24th, 2019 at 6:21 am
Fireeeeeeeee Light! He sucks. Derwin James did everything at FSU and would’ve been rookie of the year no matter where he went. Licht is an idiot and needs to be fired. Don’t like the last ditch effort of hiring Arians either. This franchise is a dumpster fire. Its a Bucs life…
April 24th, 2019 at 6:34 am
Bruce Arians: Bucs would need “hellacious” offer to trade down
April 24th, 2019 at 6:57 am
Tom S, Alaskan & ButtMonkey … Fascinating back-and-forth, especially for the wee hours of the morning. I particularly enjoy arguments backed by facts, especially those that show long-term trends.
In several ways, you’re all right (well, except for the “idiots” and “worthless lemmings” conclusions). But by limiting the discussion to individuals, it seems to me that each of you failed to mention the key to NFL football: it’s a TEAM sport. And the notion of TEAM in the NFL, by design, includes ownership, management, coaches AND players. IMO, it takes all FOUR, working in concert, to build a winning team. I happen to be one of those who believe that it STARTS AT THE TOP (dynasties like the Steelers & Patriots have been quite ‘stable’ and supportive at the top it would seem during their ‘dynasty years’).
How ANY particular player performs at various periods in their career has always been impacted, good or bad, by the TEAM that surrounds them. Trent Dilfer was a good example (and yes, he rode an incredible defense to a Super Bowl). And so is Brad Johnson (who also rode an incredible defense to a Super Bowl).
Guess what … Jameis’ stats are already better than either of those two, but he hasn’t even sniffed the playoffs yet in his 4-year career. Why? Have I mentioned yet that NFL football is a TEAM sport?
April 24th, 2019 at 7:15 am
I find it interesting that Joe avoids mentioning Mark Dominick……”back to Chucky”……
April 24th, 2019 at 7:25 am
False. Those teams had better coaching. Plop Lattimore and Williams in a SitbackSmitty defense and they look exactly like the rest of em. We’ll see this season.
April 24th, 2019 at 9:49 am
Last years draft was a killer. Not going James i hated but brillant to add picks then blow them on Rojo , mj, and davis. I think davis will be good and mj will last on the roster for a while but not to spend a 2 and rojo just isn’t anything. We could have had a franchise altering draft
April 24th, 2019 at 10:13 am
I normally like Bassenger’s work but just have to disagree with his observations this time.
First and foremost…Licht’s drafts have not been the problem!!!
It’s his desperation in the “experienced” FA’s that have burnt us to a cinder. The UDFA’s have actually turned out great for an undrafted player. It’s the players with reps who we brought in who not only underperformed but on more than one occasion turned out to be a cancer in the locker room.
I give Licht and F in FA choices.
But I do not believe Bassenger gave Licht any credit for Kwon or Humphries. Kwon a 4th rounder and Humphries so lightly regarded he wasn’t even invited to the Combine. Licht talked him into coming to our rookie tryouts and the rest is history.
For some reason everybody goes to Licht’s failures…ALL GM’s have them…and NEVER look at some amazing successes. Yeah the Saints had their big class and so did the Bucs!
In 2015 we got JW…D Smith…A Marpet…and Kwon. ALL FOUR of those players have recently signed huge contracts. 3 of them are still with us and the 4th simply took a giant contract. Time will tell if Lynch overpaid.
So AGAIN…If JW plays like many of us believe he will this season and truly becomes our franchise QB…Licht has been successful in the draft.
Does he have failures…of course…let’s all see how many times we can type Aguayo…Aguayo…Aguayo….we get it!!! But he’s also had some great success.
I’m not defending Licht’s rep as GM….IMHO that’s still VERY much on the line. He’s done a poor job with our coaches…he’s done an abysmal job in FA…and many here like to point out he hasn’t done a good job strategically in terms of building a team.
OK I hear and accept those criticisms….the LEAST of his failures has been the draft. And the verdict is still out in many cases.
If Cappa or Benenoch become starters or major backups that will change things.
If Spence plays like his preinjury rookie year and blossoms in our new D…if VHG simply becomes a starter…if Carlton Davis continues to improve…
But the MAJOR factor still remaining to be determined is JW. Again if he plays lights out this year then Licht has done well…if JW fails or heaven forbid screws up off the field then Licht is a failure.
April 24th, 2019 at 10:46 am
Getting out drafted by the other teams in our division is understandable. . . go look at their resumes. . . each has at least 10 or more yrs on the job. Licht was hired as a rookie but has been pretty bad with missing on higher draft picks. He had a few drop into his lap like Winston and Howard.
He must make some noise with this draft or it could be his last one here
April 24th, 2019 at 1:44 pm
If we draft well this year. We will all know WHO was really making the picks.
April 24th, 2019 at 4:39 pm
Bucnole, Licht being a “rookie” is not an excuse if his first pick ever was his best (Mike Evans) and his third and fifth drafts (2016, 2018) have been his worst.
Also as noted it is NOT expected that the people in the same division drafting better is “understandable” if Licht is being given the top overall pick in each round in 2015 and a top 10 pick almost every year while the Saints, Falcons and Panthers are starting most drafts jn the middle or worse of each round. It is Licht by definition starting with more that should reasonably doing better, not the other way around.
April 24th, 2019 at 8:22 pm
We used a 2nd rounder on a kicker! Light should have been fired that night!