Arians Not A Measurables Guy
April 5th, 2019
Production > measurables.
Fortunately, thanks to Joe’s many readers, Joe’s been around going on 11 years. In that time Joe has learned a few things he never knew before.
A lot of scouts and personnel folks are big on measurables. Production? Not so much. For example, Joe’s confident former Bucs rock star general manager Mark Dominik drafted leaky, sleepy Josh Freeman was because of measurables.
This is also why Michigan edge rusher Rashan Gary is rated so high. His measurables are through the roof but his production is appalling.
Well, Joe thinks it is safe to say Bucs coach Bucco Bruce Arians is a production kind of a guy. At the coaches breakfast at the NFL owners meetings, Arians was talking about how the NFL has evolved. Back in the 1980s, Doug Flutie and Warren Moon had to prove their worth in Canada because NFL types thought they were midgets or worse, derisively labeled “runaround quarterbacks.”
Arians noted Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield would never have been considered first-round picks 10 or 20 years ago. But now, the NFL is about production.
Or as former Bucs coach Dirk Koetter often said, “It’s a production league.”
“The game has changed,” Arians said. “The game is changing. Aaron Donald never fit the mold. Everybody at the Senior Bowl said he can’t play, he’s too little. He’s an MVP!
“You cannot measure heart and brain at the combine or anywhere else. And that’s really what makes a player. Those two muscles, you can’t evaluate.”
This manbeast out of Houston, Ed Oliver, Joe has heard some gripe about how he’s not big enough for this or big enough for that. But the dude when positioned properly is a gamewrecker. So it sure doesn’t sound as if Arians is a slave to measurables.
If he believes a player can produce, he will leave it up to his assistants to find a way to get a guy on the field and in position to make plays.
In other words, it sure sounds like Arians doesn’t own a tape measure or a weight scale, but does own a DVD player.
April 5th, 2019 at 5:17 am
Ed Oliver and Brian Burns were the 2 guys that stood out to me immediately when reading this.
Both produced in college and have the athleticism to be top 10 picks but are being knocked because of their height and weight.
Im sold on everything Arians has talked about this offseason. Everything he says I feel can actually happen because he has a history of winning.
Sure it might leave me like a bitter ex-girlfriend come December, but its cool having someone lead the team that you know is successful and not just hope and prayers they will be successful.
April 5th, 2019 at 5:20 am
Guess we can (thankfully) scratch RashanGary off the list…
April 5th, 2019 at 6:14 am
Im pretty sold on Oliver. I think I may ve slightly dissapointed if they take White. They will surley regret not taking Oliver
April 5th, 2019 at 6:25 am
I like BA’s logic here, although his describing the brain as a muscle reminded me of Yogi Berra. And yet I’d still prefer getting BOTH production AND measurables from 1st round picks. Production in college IMO doesn’t always translate to production in the NFL (Ryan Leaf?). Of course, neither do measurables (could use Ryan Leaf there again?). The draft is a gamble, but GMs & HCs simply can’t afford to miss on 1st round picks (or 2nd round picks IMO). DRAFT DEVIN WHITE and we’ll get BOTH measurables AND production that’ll fit any defense we run.
April 5th, 2019 at 6:46 am
Joeypoppems Says:
April 5th, 2019 at 5:17 am
Ed Oliver and Brian Burns were the 2 guys that stood out to me immediately when reading this.
So why Brian Burns over Clelin Ferrell if we are talking about college production?
April 5th, 2019 at 7:07 am
Like what you said defense. I totally get it joe GMC is on the wrong side of 30 an has taken a beeting over the years an we need his replacement but I thought that was why we drafted vea. We also need a pash rusher who can terrorize QBs especially in this pass happy league but an it’s a big one I really do think we need devin white. He’s a game changer like Patrick Willis an Luke Keukly. The way you slow down a great pash rush is short quick passes an screens an besides David we don’t have a LB who can do that. In our division we have Kamara McCaffrey an freeman all who can catch an do damage after the catch lineman arnt going to cover those guys
April 5th, 2019 at 7:21 am
Defense
And Devin White has only played linebacker for 3 years in college. He was a Former running back. His upside is the moon.
Inside linebacker may be the most important position on defense in 3-4. And he can rush the qb too. So he can put pressure on qb and get his sacks.
I’m good with Olivier (if big 3 gone ) as well but think white is instant starter who could win rookie of the year. We just don’t have many linebackers that are young and on long term deals.
April 5th, 2019 at 7:34 am
Montez Sweat has elite measurables and also has the production to match. If the big 3 defenders are off the board I’d take Sweat over Oliver (although I wouldn’t complain too much about Oliver either). White and Gary are not top five picks in this draft unless they are overdrafted, which the Bucs are famous for.
April 5th, 2019 at 7:40 am
The more I hear from Arians the more he sounds like barry melrose
April 5th, 2019 at 8:20 am
Hopefully he is not a “wins” guy either, or it could be an early “re-retirement”!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
2019 will reveal answers to the sheep, That the “real” fans already know!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
GO Bucs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
April 5th, 2019 at 9:14 am
Ed Oliver will be the pick…..
#REALISTKNOWSNOTHING!!!!!!….GO BUCS!!!!!
April 5th, 2019 at 9:22 am
I see Gary and Oliver in much the same way. Eye popping measurables, not so much on production. I’d be reluctant to take either one, especially Gary, but they both give me the willies. I’ve always preferred production guys over combine guys. I remember how the Eagles in 1995 were duped into trading up with the Bucs to get workout warrior Mike Mamula while the picks we got in that trade turned into production guys, Hall of Famers Warren Sapp & Derrick Brooks.
When looking at both Gary and Oliver on tape, we see superb athletes who should dominate the college game. The problem in both cases is they flash big playmaking ability and dominance, but there are far too many plays in which they do little or nothing.
Great players tend to dominate all the time. If you scout Aaron Donald on tape when he was at Pitt, you see down after down he refused to be blocked and played at a consistently high energy level.
Oliver has been compared to Aaron Donald because of the size and athletic similarities — and that is a good comparison — but as competitors, it’s not even close. He is a great athlete but has yet to show he is a great player.
As a raw freshman in 2016, Oliver logged five sacks and 23 tackles for loss. As an experienced junior, those numbers dropped to three sacks and only 14.5 tackles for loss. Shouldn’t they be going the other way?
Watching tape was a disappointment, as there were times he was knocked off the ball and didn’t come close to making plays. His down-after-down effort level was poor. The coaches saw what was happening and were disappointed.
A 5th overall pick is too valuable to be throwing the dice, hoping that you can coach a player into fulfilling his “potential.” You can’t gamble on a “potential” bust. Don’t get swept off your feet by someone who knocks your socks off in his underwear. Give us a consistent production guy.
April 5th, 2019 at 9:35 am
@geno711
I was mentioning guys who are losing value because of their size. Ferrell doesnt have a size issue. Ferrell’s issue is athleticism. That plus the depth of the draft is why he isnt talked about as a top prospect.
April 5th, 2019 at 9:39 am
Here is to hoping 813 is right on this one!
April 5th, 2019 at 9:39 am
Can’t measure heart!
April 5th, 2019 at 9:51 am
Devin White has the best Intangibles in the entire Draft, according to NFL executives…
And he’s obviously got the best measurables at his position as well.
This guy is going to be the leader of our defense for at least the next 5 years (think Patrick Willis).
Embrace him, Bucs Fans. He’s going to be a Dominant, Versatile, Alpha-Male ILB.
Who wouldn’t want someone who has the potential to be better than Luke Kuechly?!?? Joes?? Bueller? C’mon Man!
April 5th, 2019 at 10:33 am
Dusthty Rhothdes Says:
“The more I hear from Arians the more he sounds like barry Melrose”
——
What an odd comment.
April 5th, 2019 at 11:02 am
We don’t want a selfish player either and White’s mouth sounds too much like Meshawn Jackson to me! Bucannon is a sideline to sideline LB who has proven he can dominate on blitzes and can cover passes as well. With David standing next to him we are set at inside LB and we have trustworthy ILB Minter in reserve and he and Buccanon both know our new system too; and our present LBs are all team players and not narcisstic like White who has never played in our new Defense. Pass on White and trade down and get more 2d and 3rd picks because there are plenty of productive players with smarts and heart in those rounds like BA is looking for! After our first pick we need an OG and OT and a DT, DE, CB, and Powerful RB who can be our third down back and backup to Barber, and also a clone of Mike Alstott, and a run back specialist. We really need a bunch more picks than just 7 this year. Follow the example of how the Patriots move down and get many more picks every year and they don’t overpay their players either.
April 5th, 2019 at 11:46 am
The thing with Oliver is his measurable s are amazing lol
6’2 281 lbs running 4.73 40 and RB shuttle times plus a 36″ explosive vert and still 33 reps in the bench
Production also amazing when factoring where he took his snaps (NT) and the lack of any talent around him
Would be fine with that at 5. Not sure he lasts in a trade back. I could see Gettleman targetting this guy with his old school approach to trench building