Skillset Vs. Production
March 3rd, 2019
Breakdown of Michigan DE.
There is something about this Rashan Gary of Michigan that smells to Joe.
The talented defensive end tested well at the NFL combine in Indianapolis, but looking at his stats, Joe just shrugs his shoulders.
The most sacks Gary had in a season was 5.5 in 2017 in the soft Big Ten. Yeah, the B1G has good teams at the top, but after, say, Iowa or Michigan State, that league is horrible. And Gary could only get 5.5 sacks in a season?
Last year as a junior, Gary had 3.5 sacks. Go look at Michigan’s schedule last year. Gary should have had 3.5 sacks in four or five games each!
Former NFL offensive lineman Brian Baldinger is back from his weeks’ long scuba diving vacation in Hawaii and is already pumping out video. In the clip below, Baldinger studies tape of Gary and tries to answer the question with Gary that is, “Where is the production?”
#RashanGary is the biggest mystery in this draft to me very early in the process. He tested very well in Indy as many thought a former #1 HS prospect from Paramus Catholic should. But where is the production. Is he really a top 10 player? #BaldysBreakdowns pic.twitter.com/XBIuY3tIxS
— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) March 3, 2019
March 3rd, 2019 at 7:08 pm
Agree stay away
March 3rd, 2019 at 7:12 pm
Gary epitomizes the old adage “looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane.” Let him be someone else bust.
March 3rd, 2019 at 7:17 pm
Always a tough call. I remember seeing people like jj watt and Cameron Jordan and thinking along similar lines and I was dead wrong. Im no scout or gm. I do think you’re rolling the dice when a guy tests well but his tape doesn’t line up. But the whole thing is some hey of a crap shoot. I will say there are many athletic people out there that aren’t great football players. Just because you cN run fast or jump high doesn’t mean you have the skills, instincts, toughness needed. It’s hy I feel like there should be a real limit on how much a guy moves up or down your board based on thr combine. Your opinion of what he showed on gamed should only be swayed so much based on projection of how athletic he is and potential. Obviously if you think he was coached poorly, misused, etc and you think you can get more out of him I come into play
March 3rd, 2019 at 7:18 pm
Good one!
March 3rd, 2019 at 7:33 pm
Pounding the drum for a defensive lineman. To replace whom exactly? GMac? JPP? Nassib?
How about replacing Dotson and Benenoch? OL please
March 3rd, 2019 at 7:41 pm
We need to be absolutely certain at #5……..the player should have zero concerns….off & on field….Williams, Allen, Bosa, White, Oliver……there are 5 without questions………oh….someone will disagree….but generally….they are consensus picks.
So…..we stick with one of those we should be safe.
March 3rd, 2019 at 7:42 pm
Great skillsets+lack of productions=higher bust potential
great production+average skillsets=lower bust potential
March 3rd, 2019 at 7:46 pm
I’m not sold on Gary. If Bosa, Q Williams, and Josh Allen are gone there is Montez Sweat or Devin White. Just don’t trade down too far and wind up with none of these guys. If we take a Right Tackle with our 1st Round pick this year it’d be a travesty.
March 3rd, 2019 at 7:48 pm
Starting to come around to Brian Burns if Allen, Bosa, Williams are gone and we don’t trade dow, 6’5 250 4.53 speed and was productive, he reminds me of Simeon Rice
March 3rd, 2019 at 7:51 pm
Sweat would thrive under Bowles but I think Ben B from TCU is gonna be the sleeper pass rusher in this draft.
March 3rd, 2019 at 7:52 pm
Just a question cause I don’t follow college ball but why are y’all in love with Oliver so much? Most of the experts have him behind a few others like Gary & Ferrell & Sweat.
Y’all watching a lot of Houston University?
March 3rd, 2019 at 7:58 pm
Remember that guy Quincy Black? Or more contemporary, chiseled Noah Spence. Looks the part, lacks the production.
FWIW, I was heartily in favor of drafting Spence. This is his last chance. And Quincy Black… looked pretty good (finally) right before his career went up in smoke. So, maybe all of this is just a big “Who the hell knows” scenario anyway.
March 3rd, 2019 at 7:59 pm
Oliver is explosive, lots of tackles behind the line of scrimmage, but not many sacks. To me, Oliver is in the same catagory as Gary. There was the jacket issue with his coach at Houston, which they say that Major Appelwhite (sp?) was upset with Oliver because he was sitting out games he could’ve played in. He didn’t run at the Combine. I like it when guys just do all of the drills, unless injured.
March 3rd, 2019 at 8:00 pm
@ Guzzie: Agreed! I’m absolutely on the Brian Butns train. I was waiting until after today to say so after he weighed-in at 250lbs, but to get those numbers today….I’d put him up there with, if not ahead of Josh Allen. He displays more of an onslaught of pass-rush moves than Allen and it’s not even close.
March 3rd, 2019 at 8:09 pm
@JimmyJack
Ranking of prospects is always subjective. People are high on Oliver because the best DT in the world right now is Aaron Donald and Ed Oliver has a similar build and skill set.
Both are slightly undersized DTs with elite quickness and a ton of strength for their size. Both showed the ability to shed blocks in college and do well against double teams.
The one thing that people don’t often bring up is that Donald came into the league with production as a pass rusher. Donald racked up sacks at Pitt where he recorded 11 sacks in a season twice in 4 years there. While Oliver topped out at 5.5 sacks in 2017.
But to Oliver’s credit he outpaced Donald at TFLs in his time at Houston and generated consistent pressure on the Qb and was used as a Nose at UH when most agree he’s a natural fit at 3 tech.
Oliver is a heck of a player. But so is Devin White and about 10 other guys just on defense. This draft is loaded. Really hoping Licht doesn’t screw the pooch this year…
March 3rd, 2019 at 8:14 pm
I’m hoping for a small trade down. Ideally down to 7 with Jacksonville for a minimum of both their 3rd rounders this year. Because the list of players that were considered 2nd and 3rd day prospects that are scratching the surface of 1st round talent on every level of the defense in this draft is just insanely long.
March 3rd, 2019 at 8:15 pm
This team is thin at LBr,this young man from the bayou steps up and easily runs a 4.42 and people here are talking about Dlinemen. Not Wagner,not Kuehly,not Willis,not Urlacher not even Ray Lewis came close to this and all were nasty on the football field for many years. Lewis like Devin White was a converted RB. BA says he wants a fast football team. If you can’t see the Bucs are drafting Devin White (no matter who is on the board) you on something.
March 3rd, 2019 at 8:17 pm
Joe
Speaking of production, why the Bucs letting Adams go to FA? He was the most productive safety on the roster with 4 picks in half a season. Not sure that Evans or any safety in recent history has had 4 ints. Maybe Brady McDougald but ….. oh I see, never mind! The Bucs don’t like productive players. Gary should fit right in.
Just a reminder the all-pro, all-Star, great ice cream man in the history of everything had 17 tackles last season. 17 ….. 17 tackles, worst in the division. I bet Licht extends his contract and pays him 22mil for 1 season.
Licht for President.
March 3rd, 2019 at 8:18 pm
I agree with Joe from Michigan, if Bosa, Q Williams, and Josh Allen are gone we should look in more detail at Montez Sweat.
For Sweat, besides the 4.42 40 time, his actual 10 yard split was 1.5 which typically is more key to determining explosive pass rushers.
I would rather Baldinger spend time looking at Sweat’s tape and determine whether he was a big reason for Mississippi State’s number 1 in the nation defense.
I don’t know if Sweat’s explosiveness show on tape or whether he is a typical underwear wonder.
.
Yet, I understand that he played both RE and LE for MSU. So that versatility is a nice plus as well.
Depending on where you look he had between 21 and 22 sacks in the last two years. He also had about 50 tackles in each of the last two seasons. I do know that he played in a much tougher SEC than that weak Big 10.
So let us at least get off the consensus bandwagon
March 3rd, 2019 at 8:20 pm
This team is in need of a defensive face. Clean cut like they like’em in Buc town. Butkus award winner certified,the answer to the aunts kamara the answer to kitty cats mccaffery. Hell not Lamar Jackson running away Devin White. You folks have lamented for years over not getting Kuehly. Now the answer to him is right in front of you and you’re too blind to see it.
March 3rd, 2019 at 8:23 pm
Welcome to Tampa Devin White. No need to mention really wanting to be drafted in the top 5,I’m sure BA winked at you and told you he coming to get you.
March 3rd, 2019 at 8:25 pm
Montez Sweat: 6-6, 260, 4.41 40 time, overall grade: 6.32 (NFL.com)
2017: 10.5 sacks, 15.5 tackles for losses
2018: 12 sacks, 14.5 TFL
Brian Burns: 6-5, 249, 4.53 40 time, overall grade: 5.94
2017: 4.5 sacks, 13.5 TFL
2018: 10 sacks, 15.5 TFL
March 3rd, 2019 at 8:28 pm
I’d be happy with Devin White. Great ILB, can use his 4.42 speed to blitz up the middle…Drew Brees hates pressure up the middle!
March 3rd, 2019 at 8:29 pm
Oh and theirs that 39 1/2 in vertical!
March 3rd, 2019 at 8:30 pm
I just don’t see the dog in Gary.
March 3rd, 2019 at 8:33 pm
If you wanna talk Dline think 2nd round and start with Khalen Saunders. Not calling him the next Sapp but eerily similar.
March 3rd, 2019 at 8:35 pm
Devlin white please don’t over think it Jason
March 3rd, 2019 at 8:38 pm
I don’t see it in Gary either. I heard one analyst say his numbers were down because he had a lot of talent on his defense and they were competing for stats. Then I heard them talking about the Clemson line saying that their stats could be padded because they had so much talent around them. So which is it? I think the guy is overrated and the fact that he says he is the best player in the draft but he hasn’t developed yet, is a loser excuse.
March 3rd, 2019 at 8:42 pm
Agree Devin White has to be the pick at 5 if the top 3 guys are gone.
March 3rd, 2019 at 8:48 pm
I’m with you Joe. Production and measurables need to be there if you are a top ten pick.
March 3rd, 2019 at 8:48 pm
Speaking of production, why the Bucs letting Adams go to FA?
No idea man.
March 3rd, 2019 at 8:48 pm
Thanks AwShBucs…….Didn’t know Oliver was a NT. That could explain why he dips in some ratings since it’s not a glamorous position.
If we go DL with our pick it will be very interesting to try and guess how they will fit. We really are going to need either McCoy or JPP to be flexible if needed. We can’t be drafting lesser talent because McCoy can only play 3T or JPP can’t play 3-4.
At the end of the day whoever we draft is(well, should be) more important then the two 30 year olds on that line.
March 3rd, 2019 at 8:52 pm
I’m just glad that we can get solid player/immediate contributor on defense at 5
Bosa, Williams , Allen , white and Oliver
Honestly , I am pulling for us to take devin white. The kid can play. Also, we have so many elusive speed backs in nfc south.
White is the guy to shut them down. He excels in coverage unlike Kwon
March 3rd, 2019 at 8:53 pm
Bucs draft either White or sweat
March 3rd, 2019 at 8:55 pm
Next weekend is when legal tampering free agency begins.
Can’t wait. Ready for some football
March 3rd, 2019 at 8:56 pm
David- Kwon- White
JPP and Sweat
March 3rd, 2019 at 9:05 pm
The tough part is we may enter the draft needing a LB most of all. Especially since Kwon can run right now. They could plan on taking White but have Q drop right to them. Now you take Q and you are very desperate for a LB.
They better have a couple backup plans.
March 3rd, 2019 at 9:05 pm
Devin
March 3rd, 2019 at 9:14 pm
“Just say no to Sweat”
“Just look at the toothpick legs at Sweat!
Look at Sweats thighs vs Bosa
Sweats skinny toothpicks cant handle the weight of a NFL lineman when they get their weight and maul him
LOOK AT THE SWEATS SKINNY TOOTHPICKS AND YOU WILL STAY AWAY!”
Kobe Faker
March 3rd, 2019 at 9:31 pm
I see Sweat as a rush linebacker, not a base DE. Are his legs too skinny for that position, Kobe?
March 3rd, 2019 at 9:43 pm
There’s no absolute certain at any position. I remember all the offensive lineman drafted in the first round by Dallas and they talked about that line for what one or two seasons? That line didn’t win them anything. Go find a stop gap at right guard in free agency and fix the d line. Let benonach go back to his natural position and see how he develops at tackle where he actually belongs and see how Alex Cappa develops for another year also. Fans have the ability of giving up on a guy after one or two seasons but teams and gm’s cant do that. If those late round guys develop under a competent coach which they never had then you can reload the defense but still think we should draft a guy just not say one maybe day two with multiple picks
March 3rd, 2019 at 9:44 pm
Bosa has maxed out his body potential & is nearly a finished product there. Sweat still has a ton of growth to come. When he grows into his man body…He’ll be a faster vs of Julius Peppers.
.
March 3rd, 2019 at 9:59 pm
Bucs need ron stay away from this guy. being from New jersey i never heard to much of him in high school until senior year. Did some utube tapes about his quickness and strength and next thing you know he is supposed to be #1 recruit. Very shocked at his position he picked Michigan but he went there because his high school coach was higher by Michigan the year befor he graduated. to me he seemed very soft. STAY AWAY!
March 3rd, 2019 at 10:07 pm
Prior to this season, he was a freaking human wrecking machine. Against Oklahoma and he went nuts and that was against a damn good offensive line.
Throw in the fact Daniel Jeremiah said he was misused by Houston, seems sky is the limit.
March 3rd, 2019 at 10:52 pm
Oliver’s stats are similar to Gary’s. Most sacks either of them had in a season is 5.5, I understand that it’s harder to get sacks at DT, but Oliver hardly lit it up.
March 3rd, 2019 at 11:12 pm
For what it’s worth, I’ve heard the draftniks say that Gary was misused at Michigan. So I see some parallels between Gary and Oliver.
March 3rd, 2019 at 11:40 pm
Watch the film before making a statement about his play… Don Browns defense features one rush end and the opposite side to play the run. Him and Chase would switch every play to make sure Chase was one on one with the tackle. He also played hurt this year and came back early. He reminds me of Da’shawn Hand honestly, didn’t live up to the lofty expectations with being a top 5 recruit but will be a beast at the next level.
Lastly, if you look up who had the least amount of holding calls against them in the Big 10 Michigan leads it by a country mile even though they had a top 10 defense (been a running issues for years now) this year and one of the best defensive lines the past couple of years.
March 3rd, 2019 at 11:58 pm
“You need the low body strength to stand your ground and plant to make moves even as a standing pash rushing linebacker. Legs are the base and foundation
Sweat just worked his upper body and ran track for his legwork
Fast legs does not mean his legs are strong
I dare anyone to look at Sweats legs and thighs and tell Kobe Faker is wrong
Gump is making a huge mistake if he takes Sweat over Devin White
#SayNotoSweatsChickenLegs”
Kobe Faker
March 4th, 2019 at 12:55 am
That my was exact thought too prior to the combine. I watched some highlights of him earlier in the week and it looked to me like a lot of his sacks came on missed blocking assignments where he was running free. I was blown away by his combine numbers but something’s just not matching up for me.
March 4th, 2019 at 1:07 am
On board with Devin White–try to trade down a couple first if possible, most important–do not draft a corner in the 1st, 2nd or 3rd round and preferably just get some udfa corners and coach em up–you(Licht) have piss poor ability to pick corners.
March 4th, 2019 at 5:10 am
@Joe in Michigan
Oliver and Gary’s stars really aren’t that similar except for sacks. Gary got 9.5 in 3 years while Oliver had 13.5 in the same span. However, Oliver left Gary in the dust in total tackles, 192 vs 119 (120 of Oliver’s tackles were solo vs 57 for Gary) and more importantly Tackles for loss.
Oliver lived in the backfield with 53 TFLs in 3 seasons where Gary only manage to generate 23 in the same time frame. That’s 30 less. Or 10 less impact plays per season. Oliver was clearly the more dominant player in college and it’s really not even close.
March 4th, 2019 at 6:05 am
Devin White is the pick
March 4th, 2019 at 6:13 am
pass needs to be a sure thing not a gamble
March 4th, 2019 at 6:19 am
White is the man TB needs please along side David and Kwon that would be a nightmare
March 4th, 2019 at 6:41 am
IF Bucs stay at #5 and IF one of the Top-3 supposedly ‘generational talents’ is still available, more than like Bucs will pull the trigger on them. But IF they’re gone when we pick at #5, my money’s on LSU’s Devin White. Bucs desperately NEED a MLB, and Kwon isn’t the answer there … but Devin White is.
Interestingly, back in 2013 the Cardinals (BA & Bowles first year there) drafted a MLB from LSU by the name of Kevin Minter in the 2nd round (drafted Honey Badger also from LSU with their 3rd round pick). Minter & White have similar size: Minter – 6′ & 246 lbs vs White – 6’1″ & 240 lbs. Minter didn’t start any games in 2013 & only a handful in 2014 while Bowles was there, but he played in almost all the games. Was the starting MLB for the next 2 years and did quite well (all 32 games & lots of tackles). Moved on to Cincy in 2017 but didn’t do much there & of course was here last year (only played in 5 games).
It’d be interesting IMO to see the Bucs sign Honey Badger to be a starting safety, draft Devin White to be our starting MLB, and re-sign Kevin Minter to be a backup MLB (Bucs desperately need quality depth in our LB corps).
March 4th, 2019 at 6:45 am
Devin White (LB) in the 1st, Justice Hill (RB) 2nd, Rock Ya-Sin (CB) in the 3rd, OL in the 4th
March 4th, 2019 at 6:49 am
No to Minter hell no David outside, White middle and move Kwon to the outside
March 4th, 2019 at 6:54 am
2 reasons as of now I’m going Devin White. 1 he’s a beast of an athlete and 2 we need a leader of this defense and he seems to be the kind of overall player/ leader we have to have on this defense. It’s hard to be a leader as a DT or DE unless you are killing it up front. Plus can’t you just see Via and White locking down the middle of the field for years to come? Two absolute freaks right up the middle working together! Wow that would be awesome.
March 4th, 2019 at 7:12 am
Trade down to #7 with Jacksonville for both their 3rd round picks.
Round 1 pick #7 – Devin White MLB
Round 2 pick #39 – Dre’Mont Jones 3tech/ 34 DE
Round 3 pick #69 – Jaylon Fergusson Edge
Round 3 pick #70 – Joejuan William’s CB
Round 3 pick #94 – Khalen Saunders DT/NT
Round 4 pick #101 – Will Grier QB
BPA for the rest of the draft.
March 4th, 2019 at 10:27 am
Bucs should concentrate on OL & LB more than DL IMO. They should sign Minter to a low end contract but knowing the Bucs they will let him go just like they did Adams to save 1 or 2 Mil toward the cap. What a joke. Same ol Bucs.