Bruce Arians’ 27 Plan
March 19th, 2019
Yes, Bucco Bruce Arians is going to demand Chucky-era accountability from his players without the Greg Schiano stupidity. It will be so refreshing.
But the bigger plan at One Buc Palace is simpler than that.
With all the smoke Arians has blown this offseason, including saying Ryan Fitzpatrick would be an asset, Arians has told some truths. And one is his amazement by the array of weapons available to America’s Quarterback, Jameis Winston. Arians drools when he looks at Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, O.J. Howard, Cameron Brate and Peyton Barber. He really does.
Why?
Because Arians sees an offense that should have no trouble scoring 27 points per game after ringing up 24.8 per game last season, despite a mountain of turnovers. The 2018 Bucs led the NFL in passing yards but couldn’t finish, couldn’t turn those yards into the appropriate number of points.
So why 27 per game?
Well, through the last eight NFL seasons, teams averaged 27 or more points per game 37 times. And only five of those teams missed the playoffs. Of those 5 clubs that missed the playoffs scoring 27 per game or more, only 2 had losing records: the 2016 Saints (7-9) and the 2012 Saints (7-9 while Sean Payton was suspended all season).
So if you score 27 per game, then you are just about guaranteed a solid season, which is exactly what Arians needs in Year 1 of his repair job.
This is the core reason why you see no panic in the Bucs offseason. Arians is sure he can score enough points, and he’s sure Todd Bowles is a lot better than the hot mess of defensive leadership that preceded him.
Can these Bucs score 27 per game? Joe’s going to have the calculator on high alert.
March 19th, 2019 at 6:16 am
My concern is stopping teams from averaging 35 against us.
March 19th, 2019 at 6:29 am
Common sense would suggest that the exact same offensive staff and game planning last season would have resulted in more points averaged per game had they had a defense that wasn’t the rotten embarrasment of the league from a more favorable time of possession.
Add Tod Bowles, Add Bruce Arians and most important subtract Mike Smith and Desean Jackson = A MUCH BETTER COMPLETE TEAM THAT WILL SCORE MORE POINTS!!!!!!
March 19th, 2019 at 6:40 am
Gotta have a reliable special teams and a defense that can give the ball back to the offense to average 27 points
If this offense could limit turnovers and penalties they’d easily score 27 a game
March 19th, 2019 at 6:41 am
Grt1
That’s funny and pretty accurate.
Todd Bowles should have something to say about that. Better coordinator then head coach. He will run a scheme that suits the players. Not round block in square hole (mike smith)
He will get after the QBs , so should be fun to watch too. Can wait to see the blitz packages.
I think this draft is so crucial in getting the best defensive players we can get who can contribute right away …cause the offense should have scored 27 per game last season.
March 19th, 2019 at 6:48 am
Right on Bird.
I can’t wait to see our new defense.
Should be Badass $
March 19th, 2019 at 7:21 am
BucEmUp 7 … I’ve often thought the exact same thing about the Bucs offense scoring more if we “had a defense that wasn’t the rotten embarrassment of the league” because we might’ve had “a more favorable time of possession”. And IMO there’s a LOT of truth in that.
But the OPPOSITE also holds true unfortunately. IF the Bucs offense had done a better job of extending drives & scoring on the possessions it did have, the TOP should’ve increased as a result (from say 2018’s 30 min/game to 33 min/game). Thus the Bucs defense would’ve been on the field for less time and potentially given up fewer points. Also, IF the Bucs offense not turned the ball over as much as it did, our TOP should’ve also increased (as well as our points scored). There’s also the notion that IF our offense had scored more (especially EARLY in games), it might’ve caused our opponents to modify their game plan & our defense MIGHT have benefitted.
Only real point being BucEmUp7 that there’s a myriad of scenarios that COULD HAVE played out. The ONLY reality that counts IMO is that the 2018 Bucs TEAM was 5-11. And that obviously resulted in a new 2019 reality: new coaches, some new players, with 16 new games to show what they’ve got. Only time will tell.
March 19th, 2019 at 7:38 am
Inconsistency on offense & turnovers…..missed kicks kept us from 27……just scoring a decent number of points vs Wash with over 500 yards would have gotten us near 27…….500 points and only 3 yards…..how does that happen?
March 19th, 2019 at 7:50 am
Our defense should be improved just by coaching alone.
March 19th, 2019 at 7:56 am
In 2017, the Bucs averaged less than 21 points per game, so there was actually improvement.
March 19th, 2019 at 7:59 am
Kicking and defense…that’s the weak areas that cost us. Defense was due to coaching.
Kicking was due to talent. And that talent has not been improved thus far…unless that foreign kicking turns out to be golden.
March 19th, 2019 at 8:00 am
Foreign kicker.
March 19th, 2019 at 8:16 am
Defense, kicking, and TURNOVERS! It’s a team game and we failed as a team.
I agree with Easy- just the coaching alone improves this football team.
March 19th, 2019 at 8:22 am
Other than Bowles I don’t see any improvement on defense. So far offense doesn’t look any better than last year, maybe worse. (Hump) Guess we’ll just wait & see.
March 19th, 2019 at 8:30 am
What fans are now saying about Bruce, and Bowles, is the same thing fans have said about Lovie, Schiano, and Koetter only to be disappointed over, and over again. If it was only that simple that a new coach will make all the ills of the past go away.
March 19th, 2019 at 9:04 am
Difference is Hodad BA and Bowles winning percentage and resume’ validates what’s being said this time around. Those others not so much.
March 19th, 2019 at 9:11 am
27 points per game! To quote JG, “Jimminy Christmas Joe!”
I remember the days of Buc Ball – before Gruden – when all the Bucs had to do was score 13 points per game to win because their kick azz defense would hold the enemy at 10 points.
27 points per game!
Father Dungy’s head must be spinning after reading that!
March 19th, 2019 at 9:14 am
Hodad….I’m not all fired up about BA like some….but his resume is better than any of the Koetter and Schiano’s. So there’s that.
He can’t be worse than Lovie…. can he?
March 19th, 2019 at 9:44 am
Father Dungy’s head must be spinning after reading that!
____________
Actually you can in part thank Tony Dungy for the NFL rules being stacked against defenses. Look back at the fall out of the 2003 AFC championship game. The patriots beat the hell out of those colt receivers. Manning threw 4 picks, his receivers we breaking off routes, when they did catch the ball they just went to the ground trying to avoid the hit. After that ass beating, Dungy, Bill Pollian and Irsay went on the warpath trying to get the rules changed about hitting receivers.
March 19th, 2019 at 9:48 am
Balance. And the Bucs aren’t there yet…
March 19th, 2019 at 9:48 am
we’ll win 4 more games off better coaching alone…..simple as that….
#REALISTKNOWSNOTHING!!!!!!….GO BUCS!!!!!!
March 19th, 2019 at 9:57 am
TBBF has nailed it. Horrid kicking and turnovers cost us tremendously last year!
I know NDOG and ’87 go crazy over the blame JW crowd but if you’re the franchise QB you need to be RESPONSIBLE. I get the lack of running game…defense that put us in the hole forcing too much passing in a comeback effort…questionable OL but at the end of the day those are all EXCUSES!
The facts simply do not lie. We were 31st out of the 32 teams in turnover differential. Only SF was worse and we did this by a significant margin! We led the league in ints and by a large margin. Only three teams had more than 20 ints…the Bucs led with 26!!! That’s almost two per game!
We actually fared well in fumbles…only 9..12 teams did worse.
It wasn’t JW’s fumbles it was the ints. We could say that the Bengals game perhaps inflated those stats a bit but we were far and away the most intercepted team in the NFL!
It’s not my purpose to “blame” or disparage JW. I thought he finally learned his lesson by the final six games. I believe BA is well aware of the ints killing us and will emphasize decision making and working on the “excuses”..run game…OL play and defense to make us better.
I’m the optimist. I think JW will play well and the team makes the playoffs. But the truth is the truth. We rise or sink on JW and his decision making.
March 19th, 2019 at 11:17 am
Dirk couldn’t reach the 27 mpg mark because his offenses are notorious and legendary for stalling out in the redone because he can’t pound the rock inside the 20. Same reason we torched the Leadskins for 501 yards and 3 points.
No more of that BS with BA.
March 19th, 2019 at 11:21 am
Sign of a good coach right here guys. Giving his men tangible goals. Dungy did it. Maddon does it. Cooper does it. When you have a team goal everyone gets their priorities. It a lot easier knowing why you are doing something and you have a path to follow to get there. Team building at its best.
March 19th, 2019 at 11:41 am
I saw this Mock with trades just now
5. Cincinnati Bengals (from TB)* | Dwayne Haskins | QB | Ohio State
Finally, a team pulls the trigger and moves up for a quarterback. While other teams are signing veteran stop-gaps, the Bengals could make a bold move to end the Andy Dalton era by trading their picks in the second and third rounds of this draft (and likely a high pick in 2020) to land my top passer in the class.
March 19th, 2019 at 11:59 am
St Pete-
Fitzpatrick had 12 interceptions on 120 less attempts than Jameis, who had 14 interceptions.
It was bad coaching, especially illustrated in the Redskin game
March 19th, 2019 at 12:32 pm
Lovie took a team to the super bowl.
March 19th, 2019 at 12:35 pm
The Bears took Lovie to a SB
March 19th, 2019 at 12:45 pm
@ Altered ego, what did we get from CIncy for our #5?
March 19th, 2019 at 12:47 pm
@Alan
Alan that’s still and EXCUSE. JW has far too many interceptions.
Again I thought his decision making improved dramatically over the last six games and I believe he will do even better this year under BA/Leftwich’s guidance.
But the facts combine with the LEAGUE’s opinion. Talib and other DB’s have commented on how they looked forward to playing JW and the pick opportunities. JW has been a turnover machine and it simply needs to stop if we truly wish to get to the playoffs.
This is the single biggest off season move we have made. While people were kvetching over no FA’s BA was figuring out how to utilize JW’s talent. If he does we’ll win. It’s as simple as that.
There is a reason for the term “franchise” QB and when you spend the #1 pick in the entire draft you expect results.
That’s all I’m sayin’.
March 19th, 2019 at 1:13 pm
The best offensive showings point-wise were mostly against the bottom-half defenses (Falcons, Bengals, Giants etc.). Against the good defenses (Bears, Cowboys, Ravens, etc.), not so much, unless it was Fitzmagic (Saints,Eagles etc.).
tickrdr
March 19th, 2019 at 1:17 pm
Examples of above: Points Allowed rankings
Cleveland 21st
NYG 23rd
Atlanta 25th
SF 28th
Cinncinnati 30th
tickrdr
March 19th, 2019 at 1:19 pm
GhostofSchiano Say
swapped 1st rounders ..followed by the compensation…I think that mock had us taking Ed Oliver with what was the Cinci 1st round pick…that scenario would be too good to be true as it had the UF edge Paloite ,sp, and OG Lindstrom with the Buc 2 2nds…I forgot the 2 3rd round picks
March 19th, 2019 at 2:11 pm
Oh tickrdr! You and those pesky little facts!
March 19th, 2019 at 3:04 pm
As with all successful teams the o and d lines are the main difference between w’s and l’s to score 27 pts per game it’s gonna take superior line play , to me a buc fan since day 1 season tickets 1976-1986 at airport after 1st win against saints , we have squandered too many high picks while ignoring the lines untill this changes we’ll get same results .
March 19th, 2019 at 5:32 pm
27 a game is doable, just have to hope the defense isn’t giving up 29 a game again.
March 19th, 2019 at 6:29 pm
All I know is when the opposing team scores more than us we usually lose the game. Which is way to common with us!
March 20th, 2019 at 1:50 pm
lol I don’t go crazy like Ndog…I just don’t put W/L squarely on the QB….ESPECIALLY on this team.
I say with or without JW this team will still suck….
Negative. Perhaps I am at this point.
I’m not as worried about the “turnover machine” as I am about this sieve of a defense that’s going to be trotted out there once again. Yeah Bowles and whatever….