Projected 2019 Wins
February 1st, 2019
Nerd down on Bucs (again).
Few teams make follicly-challenged Billy Barnwell feel like his underwear has run up the crack of his backside quite like the Bucs.
And in particular, America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston.
Billy doesn’t care if the Bucs got a new coach or if the Bucs have a dangerous passing attack. He sees a truly horrific defense and a team led by Jameis, and it’s enough for him to actually read a fiction novel — without numbers!
(Nothing makes a numbers guy dread life more than to read words.)
Essentially Barnwell believes defensive coordinator Todd Bowles will have to turn in a job for the ages and his defense must overcome the play of Jameis for the Bucs to have a prayer of the playoffs.
The perennial breakout pick will be among the favorites to take a step forward in 2018, given that the 5-11 Buccaneers went 3-6 in games decided by a touchdown or less and replaced Dirk Koetter with wise sage Bruce Arians, who went 29-12-1 in those same games with the Colts and Cardinals.
The issues are, well, also perennial: Jameis Winston is unreliable on and off the field, the defense is coming off a horrific season, and the other three NFC South teams have a more plausible path to the postseason. Chances are that the Bucs will improve, but new coordinator Todd Bowles would need to turn around a woeful Bucs defense overnight to get Tampa into playoff consideration.
The defense is going to be a much bigger issue than Jameis.
Now Joe doesn’t know if the following is a football version of the chicken-or-the-egg: Just on face value, it seems the Bucs sure know how to identify nickel corners. The Bucs have used a first-round pick and two second-round picks on corners the past three seasons and it seems damn near all three are considered nickel corners, though Carlton Davis does show some promise.
What Joe doesn’t know, but we should learn in a few months, is if the Bucs simply don’t know how to evaluate cornerbacks and drafted accordingly, or the previous coaching staff had no clue in how to develop these players?
Joe leans to the latter, but it’s more of an educated guess after seeing how veteran corners played much better than the younger corners.
What Joe is confident in is that Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht did not draft Vernon Hargreaves or M.J. Stewart to be part-time players.
February 1st, 2019 at 8:10 am
We should win more with healthier players.
Bucs just hired new coaches!
Roger Kingdom will coach speed and conditioning.
Anthony Piroli will be the head strength and conditioning coach.
This is great news!! Hopefully, this gets rid of our massive injuries every frickin season.
February 1st, 2019 at 8:19 am
the experts see we have crap talent.
I went 6-10 last year
I think I am staying there again for this year.
February 1st, 2019 at 8:20 am
No….WinSTUNNED is the biggest issue! Do or die with that guy, again….
February 1st, 2019 at 8:22 am
Let me be the first to congratulate Joe on an article sans Djax.
February 1st, 2019 at 8:40 am
The big issue IMO, is that Jason Licht drafted too short and too slow corners to
stay with the big and fast receivers that are on many teams. Then then entire staff coaches and GM were foolish enough to resign ” let somebody else do it”
Grimes. If he wasn’t falling down he was easily moved out of the play with a slight push this year. Coupled with the fact that he was also a malcontent and
didn’t show much effort until the last game, player evaluation was the most serious flaw with our corners last year.
February 1st, 2019 at 8:41 am
I agree Joe. Experience is critical at the DB position. Our guys have spent 1-2 years learning how NOT to play the position.
Rookies tossed into the fire with no pass rush. They had to learn quickly and in harsh circumstances. Are we surprised that they embarrassed themselves?
But they had no pass rush and no experience. This year they have some experience but the big wild card will be our pass rush.
It’s been so long since we had a good pass rush that it’s hard to imagine but hey perhaps it’s possible. A good pass rush will make our DB’s a LOT better. We did improve our pass rush last year…just not enough…if we can make the same jump this year and get even better our D could actually be at least decent and maybe good.
We have some good players now…JPP…Vea…not a sack master but his size and his experience could make him better at collapsing the pocket in the center setting up our edge rushers.
Nassib showed promise and perhaps the most intriguing player is Spence. He disappeared last year but I still remember a couple of years ago when the Bucs and Jags had a few joint practices and JAX players were raving about Spence. I still haven’t figured out what happened but if Bowles can that would really help.
And then there is GMC. His haters get angry that he is not Warren Sapp…and I agree he’s no longer worth 13 million but if he re-negotiates his contract he still has value. He’s averaged six sacks the past two years and he averaged 8.5 sacks the previous four years. If GMC gives us between 6-8 sacks and JPP gets double digits then there is Nassib who had 6.5 sacks in the final 11 games. Vea had three sacks in the final 11…if he’s learned from his rookie experience and stays healthy it’s not unreasonable for him to get six this season.
That represents approximately 30 sacks from the front four…the wild card is Spence who opened with 5.5 sacks his rookie season…half of which was played with a sling on his shoulder.
If Bowles figures a way to use him…as an edge speed rusher…he’s simply not a power rusher and he reaches his rookie level of play there’s another six.
36 sacks compared to last year’s improved rush produced just 27 sacks tied with KC at 29th in the league. 36 sacks would move us up to the middle of the pack tied with Buffalo at 18.
But here is the real wild card. I’ve just figured the front end of the defense. What if Bowles comes up with some good blitz packages? If we could add six sacks from blitzes we are now a decent rushing team with 42 sacks…a top ten sack team.
Whenever projecting one has to consider if there is pie in the sky. I do not believe there is except for injuries…that of course could really upset the applecart.
February 1st, 2019 at 8:41 am
The only ones surprised by this are the ones that have not been paying attention!!!!!!!
The 2019 season will reveal answers to the sheep, that the “real” fans already know!!!!!!
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
February 1st, 2019 at 8:42 am
Bad defense, which is hoping for a miraculous turnaround
Non clutch QB who has lead the league in turnovers
A QB whisperer who isn’t calling plays
A GM who is bad in free agency
Playing 6 games against former MVP Quarterbacks
Yep expect the losing to continue
February 1st, 2019 at 8:45 am
Since 2002, betting on the Patriots to appear in a Super Bowl and betting on the Bucs to have a losing season have been profitable for me over the long term.
February 1st, 2019 at 8:54 am
Destin Johnny I was with you last year as 6-10, this is still a 6-10 talent team. PERIOD and not completely sold that arians is all in
D-Rome….100% with the gambling on that…it is impossible for an NFL team to suck for this long and conversely its amazing for an NFL team to be on an elite level for this long
February 1st, 2019 at 9:08 am
@TBBF…funny sir!
Indeed hopefully Arians will greatly influence the W/L in games of 7 points or less, through a myriad of things in-game, i.e. 4th down calls, etc…maybe a real kicker too.
Even though the NFC South is indeed one of, if not the toughest division in football, we simply have to start beating our division opponents more regularly, with a minimum of a 1-1 split every year with the Saints until Brees retires. If we can’t go 2-0 against the Cam-bum-shoulder Panthers only covering McCaffrey, and can’t go 2-0 against the hapless-staff-changing-everything Falcons, then we’re NOT GOING to get anywhere. Going 1-1 against the Saints, maintaining the rest our schedule performance as expected, getting to 10-6 should be doable, and would result in a very viable Wildcard chance at a minimum.
10-6 with a real RB and a real CB, 2 offensive linemen. (Insert Free Agency Tracker here).
Go Bucs!
February 1st, 2019 at 9:09 am
I am certain they get at least 1….that is all I know
February 1st, 2019 at 9:49 am
10-6 if players play inspired
12-4 + Super Bowl if Jamies connects with Djax on deep pass
February 1st, 2019 at 10:04 am
i think we have at worst 8-8 talent but imo we have at worst 10-6 coaching….i think we win 9 or 10 games next year….but we’ll see….
#REALISTKNOWSNOTHING!!!!…GO BUCS!!!!
February 1st, 2019 at 10:19 am
If we had Kareem Hunt in the backfield that would help a lot.
February 1st, 2019 at 10:23 am
How can anyone posssibly talk about or predict wins for 2019? OMG stupid
February 1st, 2019 at 11:11 am
I honestly had never of Bill Barnwell before this, so I’m not really interested in his thoughts. His Wikipedia page says he worships Tom Brady so there you go.
February 1st, 2019 at 11:22 am
BTW…all this talk about winning close games…has everybody noticed a common thread in this year’s SB teams.
Yeah…one GOAT QB and another talented up and comer…two excellent coaches…
But one thing both of these teams have that we do not..an excellent kicker. They win the close games. When you can risk it all to send a kicker out in a title game for a 57 yarder that makes a profound difference.
When was the last time we had a good kicker….Bryant…I’d take Grammatica because of leg strength.
February 1st, 2019 at 11:29 am
To be fair Davis, Stewart and Whitehead were 1st year players.
February 1st, 2019 at 11:37 am
Who the F is Bill Barnwell?
Screw his picks and the horse that he rode in on.
February 1st, 2019 at 12:22 pm
This isn’t a reflection of talent IMO.
This is a reflection of the national perception you gain when you finish last in your division basically every year for a decade and have had possibly the worst collective defense in the NFL of the last decade.
We will and should be predicted to win just 5-7 games until we actually prove we can do better. Regardless of the talent on paper or the coach. That’s simply how perception works.
February 1st, 2019 at 12:50 pm
A “fiction novel?”
Since all novels are works of fiction …
Sounds like someone should read one of my “fiction novels” and become illuminated.
February 1st, 2019 at 1:08 pm
“The defense is going to be a much bigger issue than Jameis.”
crdibility lost.
February 1st, 2019 at 1:16 pm
Lord Cornelius There is a perception when u have the 28th worst talented roster in the nfl and U don’t sack the gm that gave u that talent
February 1st, 2019 at 2:02 pm
Robert, you have no credibility.
February 1st, 2019 at 2:10 pm
I’m down with the short term tank job. I think ownership sees what QBs are in the next 2 drafts and are savvy enough to keep a lame duck QB, GM, and foot in retirement HC to get us a couple #1 overall picks.
February 1st, 2019 at 2:30 pm
ANYONE who predicts a record for next season at this point is a complete idiot.
The Superbowl hasn’t even been played, players have not been re-signed, no draft, no trades and no free agency.
Get serious.
“Jameis Winston is unreliable on and off the field,”
Jameis has kept his hands clean for three years now. I’d say he’s reliable off the field now.
February 1st, 2019 at 2:36 pm
You definitely can’t coach speed and there’s no substitute for it. Licht likes his 4.5+ guys and says they have game speed. They don’t and they get burned because they’re too slow. This is just another reason why Licht should have been dismissed, but he’s now along with his army of inept scouts.
February 1st, 2019 at 2:36 pm
Destinjohnny Says:
“…the 28th worst talented roster in the nfl…”
That is a completely assessment.
The record of a team does not determine the value of an entire roster. A team that goes 5-11 one year can improve 4-5 roster spots and go 11-5 the next.
Would the 48-49 players they kept still be among the worst?
No.
February 1st, 2019 at 3:03 pm
Why would we expect Jameis to change. As I recall Dirk preached constantly to him to not force the ball . Heck he dii it right on hard knocks and still he turns the ball over on average once to twice per game . Why would another coach telling him to not do the exact same thing be any different . Jamis is NOT a good qb .It’s just a shame we have to watch another bad season for the owners to realize the because 4 WASN’T ENOUGH!!!
February 1st, 2019 at 3:03 pm
Bonzai well then call me out for all of last year…
I said on this site 3000 times we had 6-10 talent way before the season started then Repeated it all season
Hell I even bet SB a game jersey. He said 10-6
He along with 83% of the people on this site called me out
So how many times I have to be right before u see the light ?
February 1st, 2019 at 6:00 pm
bonzi
bucs are a garbage joke of a franchise and yes the talent on your roster is a direct reflection of your record…. you have been making excuses for these pathetic losers for years…. outside of Winston and Evans there are very very few keepers