Age = Wins
January 8th, 2019
Older the better.
It may not have worked with Raheem Morris so why not try Bruce Arians?
In the post-Chucky era, going the youth route had mixed results.
When the Bucs hired 32-year-old Raheem to take over for Chucky, he won 10 games his second season (2010) but in his third year after starting 4-2, the Bucs lost 10 straight to finish out the season and Morris was gone the next morning. (Joe remembers that day well, tailgating at the Outback Bowl when news broke).
So now it appears the Bucs are going the Senior Citizen route, as Joe first reported Friday. Bruce Arians, 66, would buck the current NFL trend of hiring young, up-and-coming coaches, which the Bucs thought they had in Morris.
In a nice piece with exhaustive research by Greg Auman of The Athletic, he looked at all NFL head coaches in the past 20 years hired at 40 or younger, and all hired to run their teams who were 60 and older.
First thing that jumps out is Arians. If the Bucs close the deal, Arians will be the oldest coach hired in the past two decades.
The second thing that jumps out from Auman’s research is the coaches who were 60 or older not only lasted longer, they won more.
The 60-and-older coaches were twice as likely to finish with a winning record — and half as likely to be gone in fewer than four years.
Auman pointed out something that has to be a wee bit of concern for Team Glazer if not Bucs fans in general. None hired in the 60-years old-or-older range lasted longer than five years.
As you likely heard on the special Monday edition of the “Ira Kaufman Podcast,” Ira talked about the Bucs and Arians setting up a succession plan, as it cannot be reasonably expected that Arians will be here long before he retires for good.
January 8th, 2019 at 5:10 am
BA is the only guy available with the resume to institute a complete culture change in Tampa and finally begin to build a lasting winner. If he can’t do it then we’ll have to all face the truth: the curse of chucky is real.
January 8th, 2019 at 5:26 am
Byron Leftwich will be offensive coordinator, I feel it. And when BA gets moved to president of organization, Leftwich will be his recommendation. I’m liking it.
January 8th, 2019 at 5:31 am
Then Leftwich will be HC coach?
Arians: “Too much to live for to die on the sideline”
Posted by Darren Urban on January 9, 2018 – 10:16 pm
Bruce Arians was doing the media tour Tuesday, talking with both Rich Eisen and Colin Cowherd a week after retiring and mentioning he’d like to get into the media business. I can’t imagine someone won’t be willing to give him a chance. During his appearance on the “Rich Eisen Show,” Arians talked again about retirement, touching on familiar subjects with some more detail.
— He admitted his 2016 health scares “were eye opening.” He didn’t want cancer to drive him out of the game, and he was able to return. But there was concern for both himself and his wife, Chris.
“The stress of being a coach’s wife, of watching my health go up and down with wins and losses,” Arians said. “I knew I was done too, I was, ‘Yeah, you’re right, there’s too much to live for to die on the sideline.”
— He reiterated he knew he was done in the last game in Seattle when Phil Dawson made his field goal and then Blair Walsh missed. But he acknowledged the family had talked about it as far back as the weekend after the Thursday night home loss to Seattle. “My wife, she was done,” Arians said. “God bless her, 47 years in this business is enough.” (Arians had previously written he was considering staying one more year and renting an apartment if his wife went back to their “forever home” in Georgia.)
January 8th, 2019 at 5:33 am
“First thing that jumps out is Arians. If the Bucs close the deal, Arians will be the oldest coach hired in the past two decades.”
Period?
Oldest by the Bucs or by anyone?
Hmmm…
January 8th, 2019 at 5:34 am
“The 60-and-older coaches were twice as likely to finish with a winning record — and half as likely to be gone in fewer than four years.”
Does that include just age or factor in being sick and exhausted just a year ago?
January 8th, 2019 at 5:40 am
Bruce will hire competent coordinators to run the offense and defense. He’s not going to go into coaching again without a plan. He’s too smart, and his wife isn’t going to put up with it otherwise!
January 8th, 2019 at 5:44 am
Unfortunately it’s a pay site, what Joe was the sample size?
There are 4 coaches currently over 60. And all have been doing this a long time…Zimmer, Reid, Belichick and Carroll.
Marvin Lewis and Koetter were on the cusp of 60 when relieved of duties or mutually left.
January 8th, 2019 at 5:52 am
Clarence Says:
January 8th, 2019 at 5:10 am
BA is the only guy available with the resume to institute a complete culture change in Tampa and finally begin to build a lasting winner. If he can’t do it then we’ll have to all face the truth: the curse of chucky is real.
You are probably right! It’s HIS health, his life and his wife I suppose. Maybe a year off charged two sets of batteries.
Then no more delay. The Packers have their shiny new coach!
January 8th, 2019 at 5:53 am
But the Card’s weren’t lasting winners after he left? So he didn’t build anything there. Just saying…
January 8th, 2019 at 5:58 am
@Joe … “Ira talked about the Bucs and Arians setting up a succession plan, as it cannot be reasonably expected that Arians will be here long before he retiring for good.” Setting up a succession plan … YES, YES, YES. Byron Leftwich? NO, NO, NO. Take a close look at HIS offense in Arizona (Hint: it sucked).
Great article BTW Joe. And as you pointed out, it can’t ” be reasonably expected that Arians will be here long before he retiring for good”. That’s not a bad thing IMO. providing that he sets the foundation for a succession plan/strategy. I still see BA as a poor man’s version of Bill Belicheck (President of Football Ops, GM and HC all rolled into one, for all practical purposes). If hired, he instantly becomes the ADULT IN THE ROOM. Bucs need that more than anything right now IMO.
January 8th, 2019 at 6:16 am
Pete I… he didn’t exactly leave AZ with a succession plan in place…
January 8th, 2019 at 6:30 am
@Pete, succession and an endgame is being talked about up front here. In AZ, it wasn’t foreseen and they were trying to capitalize on what they thought was their championship window with some key aging stars
January 8th, 2019 at 6:44 am
read …
@Pete I
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.. and calm down. BA is not for us and not for any team.It doesn’t meter your knowledge when your age is up, and your health is questionable. You add in this and spouse disagreement, and boy o boy, is going to be over before even start.
Go fresh, young, go long term. GM has a duty, go find one IT IS YOUR JOB.
January 8th, 2019 at 6:49 am
watching Dabo Swinney last night make you think: that is what we miss here, find some one with that kind of spirit, mentality, and believe….It is JL job.
Hope he is not going for easy, short term solution…..
Dabo Swinney, what a leader!
January 8th, 2019 at 7:03 am
There is no such thing as a “Lasting winner” in the NFL. Either you have a great QB and you win games, or you don’t. Say whatever you want about New England, but they win NOTHING without Bledsoe and obviously Brady. Same with Peyton and Indy, and Nawlins and Brees. Lasting winner is only as long as your great QB is great.
January 8th, 2019 at 7:04 am
Today’s the big day!!! 🤗🤗
January 8th, 2019 at 7:11 am
pats got the hoody…we got the hat 🙂
January 8th, 2019 at 7:21 am
Still would rather have a Dabo Swinney
January 8th, 2019 at 7:26 am
How many times do I have to say this. Arians will bring in 2 top end coordinators, one will take over when Arians retire for good in about 3 years. I was hoping that’s what the K Richard interview was all about. ( wishful thinking). I think Richard would be great as the bucs HC after 2 to 3 years under Arians turoledge. If not Richard, maybe we do end up with Kitchens as the OC and then he take over when Arians retire Really don’t like the Bowles taking over deal
January 8th, 2019 at 7:28 am
Let me tell you, suffering from Diverticulitis is no joke. It’s horrible. You feel like you’re going to die and you can’t be more than the Bucs rushing average away from a toilet. You feel like you’re sitting in John Holmes lap unprotected. That’s what out the kid in the toilet in Arizona for BA.
That said, you CAN bounce back from it 100%, which it seems like BA did. So I don’t have ANY concern about his health. He’ll smartly manage his diet and not eat the foods that cause flare-ups.
I don’t consider him old, but wise and seasoned.
Let’s close this deal!
January 8th, 2019 at 7:28 am
No Bowles!!!
January 8th, 2019 at 7:31 am
Somebody quick send BA a sombrero, some excellent sunglasses, and a gallon of sunblock. FL heat is no joke.
January 8th, 2019 at 7:33 am
Actually Arians in that same interview stated whom he thought should take over…Keim went a different direction. But the team was trending down anyway…
January 8th, 2019 at 7:35 am
I’m just glad that St Joe’s hospital is right across the street from One Buc Place. FYI-The average age of the head coaches left in this weeks playoff games is 53 years old, so sounds to me like under 60 wins more JOE! However, your sight and you can spin it anyway you want. Go Bucs!
January 8th, 2019 at 7:40 am
Just announce the new coach already
January 8th, 2019 at 7:41 am
Dwayne Haskins. Put Tampa back on the map!
January 8th, 2019 at 7:44 am
Man….some of you guys are pretty harsh.
Pete! I certainly respect your opinion because your posts are always well written but you seem to be obsessing on this.
No doubt Arians is older…therefore he may have some more health risks than a 35 year old dude…but they are not absolute.
And so you wouldn’t have supported Ronald Reagan or Donald Trump or FDR. I say this NOT politically…not talking about Dems and R’s but rather age.
The Presidency makes coaching the Bucs look like a vacation. There is no more important or strenuous job. Three dudes OLDER than BA did OK physically…again not going to get into any politics but physically they performed or are performing fine.
Oh but Reagan did have the temerity to get shot…that certainly didn’t improve his health yet he finished his terms.
Age is a number!!! And yes I’m obviously prejudiced since my number is getting Reaganesque. LMAO
January 8th, 2019 at 7:49 am
@adam from NY
“.. and we got the hat!” Pithy commentary, think we can all agree the hoody wins. That said, I dig BA in a Kango.. really seems to go well with the sideways grin. I’m so relieved that Team Glazer has stepped out of the HC lab. BA will right the Pewter Pirate ship. Go Bucs!!
January 8th, 2019 at 7:49 am
Ok, it’s Tuesday, what time is the press conference to announce the signing of the new Head Coach, Bruce Arians?
January 8th, 2019 at 7:56 am
Can’t help myself; visualize the cheery-cheeked round face, short cropped hair, and what I wound up with is a cross mix of Bad Santa and Curly (yes, that Curly). I got a kick out of it anyway. Waiting for the presser Jason…
January 8th, 2019 at 8:03 am
Old coaches fall victim of the game passing them by. I hope ba can adapt with the game.
January 8th, 2019 at 8:11 am
Can we think about this for a minute…Does anyone really think Jason Licht, who is fighting for his job, would decide one day to hire anyone, even someone he knows and respects, whose ideas are so old and stayed to be the Head Coach of a multi-million dollar organization that is on the cusp of losing its fan base? Come on… This hire whoever it may be has to be the absolute best that can be had at this time in the Bucs’ history. Let’s think with our brains and not our disappointments.
January 8th, 2019 at 8:15 am
Dabo would make a huge splash, bringing youth, energy, excitement.
January 8th, 2019 at 8:31 am
LOL with our history I would be happy if AB made it even 4 years…
January 8th, 2019 at 8:44 am
Hiring Buddys doesn’t work!! Just happened with Koetter and Smith!! If I were the Glazers at this point I would fire Licht and hire Arians to take his place and let him hire the Bucs Savior to rebuild a dysfunct franchise!!! Hell keep GMC and Famous Jameis and make it work. And oh by the way if they do hire Bruce tell him to trade in his goofy ass looking Kangol in for the round one at least!!!!👍
January 8th, 2019 at 8:51 am
Monte kiffin was coaching in his 70s, and is arguably the best dc of all time.
January 8th, 2019 at 9:00 am
So now that we have dumped Koetter for Arians, how many more wins can we expect this season? Don’t give me this, “well it’s his first season BS”. Supposedly Bruce walks on water so that should be worth at least 5 more wins right? Or do we end up with 5-8 wins …again? I hope he is the QB whisperer everyone makes him out to be. Call me skeptical.
January 8th, 2019 at 9:06 am
tandyman
i agree….
hiring friends and buddies dont work…..folks wants to get the “old gang” back together just so we can become the tampa bay cardinals….
#REALISTKNOWSNOTHING!!!!…#KRISISTHEPICK!!!!…GO BUCS!!!!
January 8th, 2019 at 9:21 am
stpetebucsfan Says:
“Pete…. you seem to be obsessing on this.”
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No DOUBT! Good lord.
January 8th, 2019 at 9:22 am
I am very concerned about another Jeff Tedford situation. BA had two different cancers and I am concerned about his health, especially when coaching a team as bad as the Bucs. Lol.
January 8th, 2019 at 9:25 am
I’m a Tandyman Bucs Fan Says:
“Hiring Buddys doesn’t work!! Just happened with Koetter and Smith!! ”
~~~~~~~~~~~~~
That definitely can be true sometimes, Tandyman, but that is one area where I think there is a really big difference between Arians & Koetter. — I love Koetter but his loyalty ended up being a fault. Arians would not have any trouble making the move that needed to be made.
January 8th, 2019 at 9:32 am
Jean Lafitte Says:
“Supposedly Bruce walks on water…
…. Call me skeptical.”
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Skeptical. No kidding!
Wow, no one said he could walk on water.
He just seems like a really good hire for this team.
January 8th, 2019 at 9:37 am
813bucboi Says:
“hiring friends and buddies dont work…..folks wants to get the “old gang” back together just so we can become the tampa bay cardinals….”
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Your opinions are of course always respected, 813, but don’t you think this is a bit over the top? – Every single NFL head coach that is ever hired anywhere is going to bring in coaches that he knows and has worked with. I mean every single one.
January 8th, 2019 at 9:38 am
I don’t have a big opinion on age but I do on old. What is old is being losers!!!
January 8th, 2019 at 9:41 am
Age = has been and drain on society…. every one that comes to tampa fails Arians will be no different
January 8th, 2019 at 9:43 am
@St.Pete
A little history lesson:
FDR was fifty years old when he was elected in 1932 and only sixty-three when he died in April of 1945–hardly in the Reagan and that other guy category.
Sorry-as a history nut surrounded by non-income generating degrees in the category, I am sometimes overcome with names, dates and often the ages of the names. Don’t mean to offend, just correct.
January 8th, 2019 at 9:49 am
demon
over the top?…nawl buddy…
all i did was agree with tandy….lol…his comment “can be true sometimes” but my comments for “over the top”….
tandy said hiring buddies doesnt work….i agreed….you admitted its sometimes true….
which one is it….over the top or sometimes true…..
#REALISTKNOWSNOTHING!!!!…#KRISISTHEPICK!!!!…GO BUCS!!!!
January 8th, 2019 at 9:52 am
Current president is 71. DNC is rolling out people to run for the 2020 elections aged 76 j biden, 77 b. sanders, 69 l. warren.
I think BA with a medical clearance from a Doc will do fine and join Belilchk and Carroll as the elder statesmen of the NFL
January 8th, 2019 at 9:57 am
haha fair enough my friend. Definitely sometimes true!
January 8th, 2019 at 9:57 am
I just meant the “tampa bay cardinals” part, but I get ya
January 8th, 2019 at 10:02 am
Age = Wins ? Then hire Marv Levy
January 8th, 2019 at 10:38 am
Age and experience historically is a good foundation for success, but there are a lot of young coaches winning big time. I think articles like this often tell us that while coaches are in charge, players win games. Team chemistry wins games. Coaching while important is just a small part of the equation. Anyone watch Saban get his ass handed to him by a 19 year old freshman who was playing in high school a year ago?
January 8th, 2019 at 1:29 pm
The whole part that scares me is LICHT, not Arians. We have a GM that swung and missed on just about every 2nd round pick (not to mention a few firsts!) since he’s been here. Yeah, GMs don’t get them ALL right, but dang! Spence? Aguayo? Jones?
January 8th, 2019 at 1:40 pm
Would have to believe that Arians will have heavy duty influence in FA and Draft. Think like will be checking with him on all personnel matters.
January 8th, 2019 at 1:47 pm
martinii- Agreed. It’s the ONLY way that will work IMO.
January 8th, 2019 at 4:56 pm
JA
I’m sure you and I would get along very well. Obviously you are correct. I suspect I let the polio and the struggles confuse my age of FDR.
Kind of sad since FDR is one of my faves and a man I really admire.
Thanks for the correction. I like having my mistakes repaired. LOL Seriously I’m always more concerned the the right info gets disseminated more than my “rep” which is pretty limited anyway.