Goal Missed Badly; Koetter Theory Proven
December 24th, 2018
With one game to play across the National Football League, it appears seven teams will rush for 2,000 or more yards this season.
Five have locked up playoff berths. One won’t make it, and one will be in with a win.
Two thousand yards rushing is another way of saying averaging 125 yards per game. That was Dirk Koetter’s goal for the Bucs this summer.
Koetter trumpeted that he had the secret sauce to make the postseason: grinding out yardage on the ground. In other words, Koetter believed a balanced offense would win a lot of games.
“There was only one team [in 2017] that rushed for over 2,000 in the season and didn’t make the playoffs. That was the [Dallas] Cowboys,” Koetter said as training camp opened. “Two-thousand yards in a season averages out to 125 yards a game. That’s where you’d like to be. Teams that do that are going to win games. They’re going to average a little over 10 wins and they’re going to get in the playoffs.”
Joe scoffed at the take at the time because that formula didn’t hold true in 2016.
But looking back, Koetter made a strong and accurate case.
The teams that now have at least 1,900 yards rushing with one game to play? Seahawks, Ravens, Rams, Panthers, Titans, Cowboys and Patriots. The Texans are just outside the group with 1,887 yards.
The Bucs rank 28th with 1,431 yards. They’re also second-worst in the NFL in yards per carry at 3.9.
You want yet another reason to overhaul this Bucs regime? Look to the failures in the rushing attack after they were a very clear goal and made an offseason priority with the signing of Ryan Jensen and the drafting of Ronald Jones.
December 24th, 2018 at 1:34 pm
WHAT?! Rushing attack?! Who needs that?!
I’ll tell you who needs a rushing attack: Any NFL team that wants to reach the playoffs, that’s who.
December 24th, 2018 at 1:35 pm
Were not going to run anything well, with Benenoch on the line.
December 24th, 2018 at 1:35 pm
Sit Barber ..promote DO to the game day 53 and let DO & RJ carry the ball next game…I liked DO in preseason…guy is smash mouth !
December 24th, 2018 at 1:37 pm
Teams don’t win because they’re balanced, they’re balanced because they win.
December 24th, 2018 at 1:44 pm
a lot of those yards are from QB’s that are running this season.
December 24th, 2018 at 1:46 pm
The Bucs rank 28th
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But Winston is supposed to win games. Please do tell where the defense is ranked? How about kicking?
So the guy has zero support but these real fans want Winston to take them to the playoffs. Hmm okay!
I wonder where the coaching and oline would be ranked? Probably right around 28th.
December 24th, 2018 at 2:07 pm
Dude has been making excuses for mediocrity since he got here. The first thing he said he needed at the owners meeting after last season was a running back and to improve the run game. Well it’s clear the coaching is the main issue. They signed Rojo who rarely caught passes in college and wasn’t asked to block much either and they are all surprised he can’t do it lol Koetter is pathetic and that wasn’t just a Licht pick the coach has a hand in it also which is why he’s there on draft day.
He tried to cover up for the bad coaching staff he assembled by saying we are a passing team knowing that he really wanted to be able to run. Winston is not Brady so obviously he needs a run game. Out on dirk bye bye
December 24th, 2018 at 2:20 pm
who plays next week should be in hands of ownership Dirt has proven he is clueless and simply doesn’t get it JW has suffered no running game since he has been here ,and teams know it and its is embarrassing .
December 24th, 2018 at 2:31 pm
Pitt…to be honest Jameis has suffered from many many mistakes of his own doing
December 24th, 2018 at 2:45 pm
And what did the rams back up back rush for !!!!
December 24th, 2018 at 3:02 pm
Very deceiving stat. If you give up a lot of points, you can’t run the ball.
December 24th, 2018 at 3:05 pm
Last game against the dirty birds, I wanna see Griffin start, ROJO as starting RB, & Alex Cappa starting RG, and Justin Watson get a ton of playing time.
Let ME13 play first 1/2 and set new Bucs record for receiving yards in a season, then shut him down completely. Watson plays 2nd half w Godwin.
THIS is what ownership should be telling the coaches to do…
December 24th, 2018 at 3:07 pm
Blame Jameis… somehow it’s his fault. No it’s Jason Sorry A— Licht! Fireeeeee Licht!!
December 24th, 2018 at 3:10 pm
Fairly weak running game, blah.
December 24th, 2018 at 3:46 pm
Solution, fire Koetter, the Ol, DB and special teams coaches. These areas have been the problems with this team all year
December 24th, 2018 at 3:54 pm
Koetter abandons the run every game
December 24th, 2018 at 4:02 pm
Wright says Teams don’t win because they’re balanced, they’re balanced because they win.
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That is some deep sh!t there.
December 24th, 2018 at 4:02 pm
Regardless of who’s Bucs 2019 GM/Coaching Staff…If they ever want to hit the 2K yard team rushing goal…They 100% need to rework the OL & draft a physical RB (Benny Snell Jr) to pair with Barber & RoJo 2.0… (LeVeon Bell @ his ask of $15M/yr is not even a consideration…Better ways to spend that $$$!!!)
December 24th, 2018 at 4:32 pm
What to expect when most of your cap money is spent on WR,TE, D-Line?
December 24th, 2018 at 5:07 pm
Let’s get real. The offense played well enough to win games the last 2 years. The kicking cost us games, and the defense could not hold leads.
A running attack is awesome but not the end all be all cure.
A kicker that doesn’t mmiss.
A defense that cancreduce opposing teams scores by one more touchdown, and our records the lastctwo years would have been reversed.
December 24th, 2018 at 5:10 pm
Lakeland, DJax wiil be gone after the season, so there’s 10m. McCoy might restructure, get traded, or be released.
Brate is going noowhere.
December 24th, 2018 at 5:12 pm
Dre, you mean Monken. Koetter doesn’t ccall the plays.
December 24th, 2018 at 6:27 pm
Sad because all fans have been calling for us to draft a stud RB, and all’s we kept doing was pass on many talented ones. We never got Robin when we had Batman. Most young QBs in the NFL have been paired with one.
December 24th, 2018 at 6:32 pm
Definitely on Licht. When the #WEAPONS4WINSTON tsunami hit, he bought into the idea that with an ultra talented receiving corps, Winston would be unstoppable. RB, defense, o-line…didn’t matter.
December 24th, 2018 at 6:47 pm
When I read the title, my first thought was turn overs. Despite no running game, terrible special teams, defensive ineptitude the game was lost on two turnovers.
If the team is so bad across all 3 phases of the game yet the game is lost because of turnovers. I don’t care about finding someone to blame or assign responsibility to for the turnovers , it isn’t the point. The point is how a team that is terrible in SO many aspects of the game is able to compete with and ultimately lose because of turnovers.
Oddly, when the team’s weaknesses are pointed out, that’s about 1000 times daily, it’s kicking game, no running game, league low defense. Never is turnovers included in the list. But a review of multiple games that includes previous seasons games clearly and concisely point to turnovers as , at minimum, a factor that prohibits the team from winning. The fact that this part of the game is either omitted or ,by the use of other deficiencies, used to mitigate turnovers as a significant factor in the team’s lack of success, is inexplicable and intellictually dishonest.
Turnovers have been at times the single most important factor that has lead to the team losing. There’s no reason to attempt to ignore or explain them away it’s not important. Acknowledging that turnovers are part of the team’s lack.of success is all that is necessary.
December 25th, 2018 at 2:39 am
Let’s look at the flip side of this.
12 teams are on pace to have 4000 yards passing, and 9 of them are still in the playoff hunt. Granted, that’s not the 8 of 8 teams that the rushing metric offers, however, there’s a bias in play here. Teams that are winning tend to run the ball, not necessarily the other way around.
Of the 8 teams leading the league in rushing, only 4 of them are in the top 10 in YPC, suggesting that their W-L success is at least aided some other factor. Maybe defense, ST, TO’s, or some combination of the 3.
Football is too complex to look at any one statistic as proof of anything.
December 25th, 2018 at 10:08 am
Ronald Jones will never get better getting two or three carries a game. Give the kid 23 overall touches and let him learn. Koetter isn’t a good teacher like I thought he would be
December 26th, 2018 at 7:02 am
Well we could have Kareem Hunt except we haven’t sign him. He would be a big help to this team.