The Madden Curse
August 17th, 2018
Uncanny Bucs accuracy.
Most folks consider the best source for NFL season predictions comes from the wise guys in Las Vegas (or Newark? Or Far Rockaway? Or Wheeling? Or Providence? Or Reading? Or Biloxi? Or Wilmington?).
Of course, folks who like to play with numbers can also go to FootballInsiders.com for their almanac.
But Jet-flyin’, kiss–stealin‘, data-analyzin’, Bucs-film-studyin’, data-driven, limousine-ridin’ Thomas Bassinger of the Tampa Bay Times has found a different, more accurate source. At least when it comes to the Bucs.
And the source is of all things a video game. Yeah, really.
In recent years, Madden has been scarily accurate in predicting how Bucs seasons will finish, often missing the mark by no more than one game.
While everyone else was jumping aboard the hype train last August, Madden NFL 18 was pumping the brakes. Before anyone had taken a meaningful snap, I powered up my PlayStation 4, downloaded Madden and simulated the regular season 10 times. The Bucs won an average of six games and didn’t make the playoffs once.
That forecast was no fluke. In 2016, the game predicted eight wins. The Bucs went 9-7. In 2015, it predicted five wins. The Bucs went 6-10.
Bassinger also documents how he built his team and ran simulations for this season’s result. Bucs fans may want to brace themselves.
So for the folks who plan to go to Vegas (or any of the aforementioned new sports wagering hotspots in the nation) to lay cash on Bucs’ season-win totals, you may want to play some Madden.
Or have your kid do the work.
August 17th, 2018 at 11:15 am
The Madden AI has gotten very sophisticated!!!!!!! It takes so many trends, possibilities into account!!!!! In fact , even Madden knew that hard knocks was a distraction!!!!! The “real” question is, If the “real” fans can see it, If Vegas odd makers can see it, If madden the video game can see it, why couldn’t Joe??????????
GO Bucs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
August 17th, 2018 at 11:19 am
I am an avid Madden player and have been for years. Most of Madden’s ratings for the players on the roster was fair. I was very surprised when the overall rating for the team last year was only at 80. An overall score of 80 is not very good. They are rated at an 80 this year as well. On this year’s roster I think some players are under rated and some are over rated
It’s scarily accurate because there isn’t bias in how these ratings are put together. That being said, the game simply cannot account for how a team is coached when running through these simulations. The simulations probably follow specific algorithms to do certain things in certain situations. For example, the simulation may have a run up the middle when the Bucs are on a goal-line situation because that makes the most sense. In real life, Koetter calls a pitch play.
August 17th, 2018 at 11:20 am
If he is 1 game off I’ll be optimistic and go up 1 to 7-9, might be enough to save Koetter/Jameis/Licht and maybe Smitty. Did he tell you how the first 3 games went with Fitz?
August 17th, 2018 at 11:30 am
D-Rome Says:
August 17th, 2018 at 11:19 am
“For example, the simulation may have a run up the middle when the Bucs are on a goal-line situation because that makes the most sense. In real life, Koetter calls a pitch play.”
LMFAO!!!! It wouldn’t be so funny if it weren’t the truth! Well played D-Rome!
I love my Madden too. However, I’m an unapologetic cheater. I have to simulate games in order for there to be a chance to LOSE! 🙂
August 17th, 2018 at 11:31 am
I wonder where they had the Jags, and Eagles at? I for one am not gonna base anything off of a freakin video game, C’mon man!
August 17th, 2018 at 11:36 am
What I do is change the player ratings for certain players that I feel are rated too low. O.J. Howard was rated an 80. I bumped him up to 83. Same with Jameis (up to 83). I bumped up Donovan Smith to an 80 and Caleb Benonoch up to 75 (he was 68). A few other adjustments as well most notably to Justin Evans, M.J. Stewart, and Carlton Davis. Nothing crazy. I also bumped up Peyton Barber to an 80. Basically I wanted to make sure when I play on All-Madden mode I’m not unfairly destroyed.
When I played Bucs vs. Titans the other day Derrick Henry steamrolled Chris Conte on his way to a 68 yard touchdown run. That might actually happen. :-/
August 17th, 2018 at 11:40 am
LOL!
August 17th, 2018 at 12:04 pm
Someone run the #’s!
August 17th, 2018 at 12:19 pm
D-Rome- I do the same exact thing. Occasionally, I “might” take some liberties and bump a little higher. For me, I left Barber where he was at. I’m still trucking people!
Conte “steamrolled”! Hilarious! Hopefully we’ll get the opposite and Conte will steamroll Henry!
Here’s to hope!
August 17th, 2018 at 12:35 pm
D-Rome -that’s just it. If you read this site you would have thought that last year the team was all world and this year is no different. Always remember that Joe has to be granted a press pass, they can’t just blast GM decisions, coaches, players etc… so you will not be getting the most unbiased information, articles, “takes” etc… I’m not saying you don’t get information outside of Joebucsfan but always read these puff pieces with a grain of salt 🙂
August 17th, 2018 at 12:38 pm
why is realist talking about HK?….LOL….that was last year…..everyone has moved on except the dumbest!!!!!….lol….
stop the excuses!!!!…start the accountability!!!!!!
#NOEXCUSESIN2018!!!!….#PRESSURESONTHECOACHES!!!!….GO BUCS!!!!
August 17th, 2018 at 1:49 pm
Average of 5.4 wins eh?
Man- I just find it really hard to believe this team will NOT be drastically improved.
The additions of JPP, Jensen, Curry, Allen and Unrein – just those free agents alone made the team better. That’s 4 upgraded starters at key positions in the trenches via FA. As well as Marpet moving to LG – that’s a HUGE upgrade over Pamphile. FIVE upgraded starters of the 9 starting trench positions!
It all starts up front. No WAY you can convince me in pre-season that we are not significantly better on the DLine (with DEPTH to boot). And at least somewhat better on the OLine.
Then Licht added a BUNCH of young talent in the draft – all at positions that needed bolstering. Vea – ROJO – Stewart – Davis – Cappa – Whitehead – Watson
That’s QUITE a haul of young talent! They won’t all work out. But at least 3 or 4 of those draftees are going to be good players for this team for years to come. Starters. At least 2 or 3 will play significant roles this year as rookies. Those all seem like low estimates but I’m trying to stay realistic.
Then there’s the added development/improvement of young players already on the roster.
Winston, D. Smith, Marpet, Kwon, Hargreaves, Spence, Benenoch, Howard, J. Evans, Godwin, Beckwith
That’s like 8 current starters and 3 key back-ups – all coming into their 2nd, 3rd or 4th years.
I’d say the vast majority of those young talented Buccaneers will play BETTER than they did in 2017. Not the same – not worse – BETTER!
So how is it possible that the “experts” (Vegas and Madden and so many others) do not see the Bucs improving in 2018 when I see improvement almost everywhere I look on this roster??
I just don’t get it…
August 17th, 2018 at 1:55 pm
@Joe … “In recent years, Madden has been scarily accurate in predicting how Bucs seasons will finish, often missing the mark by no more than one game.” Well duh, we’re talking about the BUCS … it’s not really all that hard to predict IN RECENT YEARS how each season will turn out. Like we’ve only had TWO winning seasons since Chucky left, and neither of those led to a playoff invite. An orangutan could predict just as well and be right just as often as Madden.
Let’s be real here: the ONLY ones who predict great things for the Bucs in recent years are (1) Bucs’ fans and (2) media types who like picking the underdog in the hopes that one day they’ll be right. When I talk to folks I know across the nation about football, they’re usually surprised to find out that Tampa still has an NFL team. Many seem to think the Bucs moved elsewhere after our 2002 Super Bowl victory. Respect? Nah, not so much.
Personally, I don’t give a rats what Madden or the Las Vegas crowd or 813bucboi or any of the other naysayers predict for 2018. This Bucs team is going 10-6 or maybe even better. We’ve been pushed around long enough and we’re not gonna take it anymore. Time to kick ass and take names.
August 17th, 2018 at 2:07 pm
Stay positive Defense Rules! 10-6 nah! 16-0….YES SIR!!!
August 17th, 2018 at 2:17 pm
You are always on fire with your articles Joes but the last few days y’all have been ON FIRE!
August 17th, 2018 at 2:41 pm
In real life Conte steamrolled Deion Lewis yesterday so hard it almost started a huge melee.
August 17th, 2018 at 2:50 pm
Madden head coach 09 for PS3 with Tony Dungy on label still remains the best Madden ever created and accurate as hell.
August 17th, 2018 at 3:41 pm
@Lamarcus
Is it so accurate that if tony dungy calls for a punt on 4th down that Payton Manning will over ride him and send the punt team back to the sidelines while Manning picks up the first down and then drives down the field to score??????
August 17th, 2018 at 5:21 pm
I’m on it guys I’ll do the 10 simulations with the new madden but … who’s the starting RG?
August 17th, 2018 at 5:29 pm
Realist
No Dungy and Manning is nearly unstoppable with that play action and the A.I. on the DEs seems to bite it every time chasing Addai that Manning has like 10 secs to throw the ball. So I mean they never in punt situations. The only defense u have is that they play cover 2 and u have to play alotta go routes.
August 17th, 2018 at 8:06 pm
Love these positive articles! lol
August 17th, 2018 at 8:09 pm
So does this mean the Bucs need a Priest and some Holy Water from the Caloosahatchee?
August 17th, 2018 at 8:09 pm
Roll Red Tide!!
August 17th, 2018 at 8:58 pm
A Broken clock is right twice a day!
Go Bucs!!!