Survival
August 29th, 2018
Security?
It is a question Joe has asked since NFL strongman Roger Goodell sentenced America’s Quarterback to a three-game sentence to start the season.
What happens if the Bucs go 0-3?
An 0-3 start simply dooms a team from having any realistic postseason dreams or aspirations. It is virtually impossible to overcome that, especially in a division where everyone but the Bucs was in the playoffs last season.
More importantly, what happens to the job stability of Dirk Koetter? Good guy Mike Tanier of the Bleacher Report sort of wonders the same thing when he had a question for each team to answer as we need the opening of the 2018 season.
Will head coach Dirk Koetter survive the almost inevitable 0-3 start?
Joe has been skimming over various football sites and it seems many have stories speculating Koetter will be the first coach bounced this season, ignoring the fact Team Glazer has never fired a coach in-season.
There is little to no buzz around the interwebs that the Bucs will make any kind of a run this season. Many think Jameis’ sentence all but kills the Bucs, which fuels the guessing of Koetter’s job status.
If the Bucs play decently in the final 13 games after Jameis’ return but still miss the playoffs, will Team Glazer give Koetter a mulligan? Koetter had absolutely nothing to do with Jameis’ suspension so why should he, in theory, pay the price if that Pearl Harbors the Bucs’ season.
Joe has wondered for the past two months if Jameis’ suspension could grant Koetter a pass.
August 29th, 2018 at 4:09 pm
Team sport. Gonna see what the rest of the team, not just Jameis will look like. If Koetter is fired I guarantee Mike Smith is going with him or even prior.
August 29th, 2018 at 4:15 pm
I’ve never seen the media so sure if a teams fate before the regular season started, it’s incredibly ignorant and stupid which apparently wins over a lot of people. How did take missing key players become so unbeatable?
August 29th, 2018 at 4:18 pm
I hate to talk about games we lost before we play them. I hate to talk about losing seasons before it’s evident we can’t win, and I hate to talk about a guy losing his job until before he loses it. Seems like nobody lives in the day anymore. Can’t we just be glad the season is about to begin and enjoy looking forward to Sundays?
August 29th, 2018 at 4:19 pm
i think he stay’s this franchise has never ever had a QB or an offense this talented, now if the defense sucks, smith is gone, they have to improve by leaps and bounds for him to keep his position, like ya’ll have said they don’t have to be lights out on the D side of the ball, just somewhere in the middle and room for improvement, now if jameis get’s the itus, and try’s to make contact with anyone affiliated with the franchise, pumping them for information, and gets caught, were back at square one because that will be the shot that sinks the ship, there all gone at that point, new coach, new staff, and 1st pick in the draft
August 29th, 2018 at 4:20 pm
I have to admit before preseason. I figured the Bucs would come out of the first three games at 1-2 or 0-3, but if the strong preseason can translate to the regular season I think 2-1 is not unrealistic even without the Bucs having their starting QB.
August 29th, 2018 at 4:23 pm
Would be interesting if the team did do something if the Bucs start out 0-4, and remember, they hardly ever win in Chicago, so people thinking that they win that game, you don’t know your Bucs history.
But if Mike Smith took over it could be a huge upgrade, mainly because it would hopefully mean he’d no longer be DC. Ideally Dirk would just be moved back to OC, but yeah, I know pride means that can’t happen, but Dirk shouldn’t be more than OC. There’s a reason why you have a ton of success at doing one thing yet you don’t get a HC job until you’re into your mid-50s, and Dirk has so far shown us why. On the positive side I think most people agree that this year the team seems more like how a team should feel at this time of year, so perhaps Dirk has finally grown into the job, we shall see.
But anywho, if Dirk got the boot and Mike Smith was head coach, someone else was the DC and the current OC was calling the plays, I don’t really know see how that’s a downgrade. Mike Smith is very much a proven HC, knows how to prepare a team and has had a lot of success, but Mike Smith is a god awful DC who doesn’t seem to have any feel for calling the defense.
Anywho we shall see. I’m not convinced the Bucs can’t win one of those first 3 games, and if they can win in Chicago (which again they almost never do) then they’d be 2-2 going into the bye, with Jameis back, and from there they really could go on a roll. But it’s more likely they’re 0-4 and it’s complete chaos as Dirk falls apart.
August 29th, 2018 at 4:26 pm
A 2-1 start for the Bucs is more likely than an 0-3 start IMO.
1-2 start is the most likely of all probably
August 29th, 2018 at 4:29 pm
Wait and see. That’s why they play the games. My guess is that the Bucs will win one or two of the first three. Surprise most fans.
August 29th, 2018 at 4:30 pm
You think philly is thinking they are going 0-2 because wentz is out and Foles looks like a rookie learning a new offense. Do you think the jets and bills thought they were going to lose every game because they had Fitzpatrick at qb. He also is a professional quarterback who has been in the league along time. I love how everyone says jameis sucks and isn’t a top quarterback. But in the next breath say we are doomed to start 0-3 because he isn’t playing. So there like godeep in me jameis on this site will just say whatever to bash winston even if they contradict themselves.
August 29th, 2018 at 4:31 pm
I think Jameis suspension might work to Koetter advantage. There was a good chance the Bucs open up the season 0-3 with Jameis. The hardest opening schedule in modern football history. The Bucs will be underdogs in every game. if the Bucs go 8-8 or worst bye bye Coach. Now if Fitzs goes 0- 3 and Jameis goes 8-5 Bucs finish 8-8 Koeter might get a pass.
August 29th, 2018 at 4:33 pm
Didn’t Fitz go 10-6 with a Jets team that had one real receiver???
August 29th, 2018 at 4:38 pm
Our last game in Chicago was a 36-10 win. If jameis comes back in this game , no question he will want to repeat this. As for our record in Chicago, weather
most likely be a problem as in the past. Bucs had more troube winning games under 40 degrees back when we used to play the Bucs. Fortunately they finally broke that mile stone.
August 29th, 2018 at 4:39 pm
edit: when we used to play the bears
August 29th, 2018 at 4:41 pm
The Bucs must do at least 2-2 their 1st 4 games to have a chance at 8-8. Yes it can be done. I juust want to see if our Defense has improved. I’m not judging by preseason either. If this defense starts studdering early, we can kiss the Baby!
And if Koetter and his sidekick Smitty cannot do the 8-8, I say have the night janitors at Buc one place..sweep them out of the building forever..with the evening trash!!!!!
August 29th, 2018 at 4:51 pm
Famous Jameis 13-0 like at FSU!!
August 29th, 2018 at 4:56 pm
You know who has pressure to win right away? The Saints-
8 of their final 10 games are against :
Vikings
Rams
Eagles
Steelers
Cowboys
Falcons
and Panthers twice
and some of these reports are predicting 12-4 for them??
August 29th, 2018 at 4:58 pm
@ Mike Johnson
So you think they have to be 500 in the hardest games on the schedule to be 500 at the end?
Awesome math skills!!
August 29th, 2018 at 5:10 pm
Bob – The last time the Bucs played @ Chicago they lost 21-13.
The Bucs are 5-20 all time at Chicago (not counting 2002 when the Bears played at the University of Illinois).
August 29th, 2018 at 5:14 pm
Oops, my bad, the Bucs are actually 5-21 all time at Chicago, not counting the 2002 game at UI.
August 29th, 2018 at 5:15 pm
Fitz went 10-6 with the Jets and no talent. He has the most talented people around him in his career. By a long shot. One year he had TO and no one else. Bucs start 2-1
August 29th, 2018 at 5:25 pm
Some more stats…
The Bucs are 11-18 all-time @ NO.
The Bucs are 1-5 all-time vs the Steelers in Tampa.
The Bucs are 3-3 all-time vs the Eagles in Tampa, if you include the ’79 playoff win.
The Bucs are 6-21 all-time @ Chicago (including 2002)
The Bucs are 10-13 all-time @ ATL
The Bucs are 1-3 all-time @ Cleveland.
The Bucs are 5-2 all-time @ Cincinnati
Wow, who knew the Bucs dominate the Bengals all-time in Cinny?
Anywho the Bucs are by far the most losing team in NFL history (and it’s not even close), so them having very bad records against nearly everyone is to be expected.
August 29th, 2018 at 5:25 pm
@Mike Tanier … “Will head coach Dirk Koetter survive the almost inevitable 0-3 start?” ‘Inevitable’ is a pretty strong word … as in “certain to happen’; unavoidable; destined; inescapable according to Webster’s. The only descriptor the dictionary & thesaurus left out? Horsepuckey!
Tanier has no more clue how the Bucs will do in those first 3 games than the man in the moon (he’s probably totally convinced there’s one of those too). He’s obviously making the assumption that without Jameis the Bucs are dead in the water. Personal belief is that TEAMs win championships, not individual players. Still remember when Brady was suspended for 4 games to start the 2016 season … Garropollo won the 1st 2 games, then Brissett went 1-1, letting the Pats’ TEAM start 3-1 before Brady came back (and oh ya, they went on to win the Super Bowl that year). Point is that the TEAM responded beautifully, even after losing their superstar QB to open the season. Tanier probably had them opening 0-3 that year also.
Agree with Pickgrin … “A 2-1 start for the Bucs is more likely than an 0-3 start.” I’ll even go one step farther: Bucs will be 3-1 after Chicago. Fitz will be the starting QB for all 4 games. Our offense will score a lot of points in those 4 games, but our improved Bucs defense will be the real story.
August 29th, 2018 at 5:27 pm
Rod … Which vocal group was it that sang “But that was yesterday, and yesterday’s gone”?
August 29th, 2018 at 5:43 pm
I have a STRONG feeling that it will be a 10-6 year for us with a playoff berth.
I admit that it’s a gut thing. However the math looks right to me. And personally, I’m NOT blown away by the bears. There quarter back hasn’t even achieved more than 1 count them, 1 touch down in any game he has EVER played in as a pro.
Hey I. Might eat crow but I’m sticking with 10-6 with a playoff berth….
GO BUCS!!!!
August 29th, 2018 at 5:45 pm
Atrain
That team did have a very good defense. So if we have truly gotten our defense solid your point is very valid. There is no reason we can win 2 or even 3 of those games.
Depends on how our Oline plays and if our D is for real.
August 29th, 2018 at 5:47 pm
“The Bucs will be 4-12 and Klueless will not be fired and will be the Bucs HC next year”
Kobe Faker
August 29th, 2018 at 6:21 pm
Jameis is going on a run when he gets back. No time for losses. The Bucs defense will save the first 3 games.
August 29th, 2018 at 6:36 pm
D.R.
Chad and Jeremy in the mid 60’s. Man am I old. LOL
August 29th, 2018 at 7:21 pm
If 0-3 is “inevitable”, then it can’t be the coaches fault. Maybe the GM, but I strongly disagree. I know it’s preseason, but the Bucs are moving the ball with regularity (just like last year), and have improved many facets of this team, especially defense in general and kicker. This feels to me like the season we should’ve had last year before Jameis got hurt and our kicker sucked. it’s all set up for the 9-7 Bucs to become the playoff bound Bucs. Put Jameis in the corner, Mr. Goodell, and the other teams will pay the price while he redeems himself on and off of the field.
August 29th, 2018 at 7:46 pm
Rod ,my bad the last time we played was at home. AS I said the cold weather was often something the team struggled to overcome.Doesn’t mean they are a cold weather team ,but I don’t see weather being a factor this year. This should be a winnable game. A lot of people want to see both the team and coaches succeed. and hope we can be at least be 2-2 at after this game. Its still any given Sunday in the NFl. There was also a time where they couldn’t beat PHilly and I liked how that turned out.
August 29th, 2018 at 8:11 pm
Yes ,Rod that is a whole lot of losing,BUt how many players on 2018 Bucs or Bears team played in any of those those games?
August 29th, 2018 at 9:11 pm
I just made a comment on another article that would have fit better here. Basically in that comment I feel if they go 0-3 the Glazers will be merciful and give Koetter another chance unless they listen to the inevitable loud white noise from the media.
August 29th, 2018 at 9:20 pm
Bob – Not saying the Bucs are doomed to lose, I’m addressing those that say the Bears game is an automatic W, which I’ve seen a ton of in the comments. Also the majority of those games in Chicago were not cold weather games, it’s just a place where the Bucs historically play poorly for whatever reason. It’s like when the Packers come to Tampa, even if the Bucs are bad, they generally (but not always) beat the Packers at Tampa. Same with the Vikings in Tampa. Home field advantage is a legitimate thing, it’s why those that put money down on games factor it into things.
Also while I think that Bears game is going to be really tough, I also think the Bucs have a good shot at beating the Eagles in Tampa where the Bucs generally play the Eagles really tough.
Anywho people can choose to completely dismiss history, or they can look at the stats and look at the history and say wow, we generally stink in X situation, so perhaps we don’t just assume an automatic W. Also that comment is not aimed at you as an individual, I don’t know if you’ve been saying that or not, I’m speaking in generalities of various comments I’ve seen since the schedule was released.
August 29th, 2018 at 9:24 pm
@StPete … “Chad and Jeremy in the mid 60’s. Man am I old. LOL” What’s even sadder is that I can’t even remember who Chad & Jeremy were StPete. But then again, had other things on my mind then.
August 29th, 2018 at 9:24 pm
BTW I did the Cleveland record wrong as for some reason I was thinking they played at Cleveland. The 1-3 record is correct for @ Cleveland, but here’s the stat in Tampa.
Browns @ Bucs, all-time, 2-3
August 29th, 2018 at 9:31 pm
@Rod … “Bears game is going to be really tough.” Funny how a lot of folks seem to be assuming that the Bears game will be the easiest of our first 4 games. They forget that the Bears had an excellent defense last year (even though it started slow). They ended up ranked #9 in POINTS ALLOWED (320 allowed on the season, but 104 of those were allowed in the first 4 games). Could well be reminiscent of our old Black & Blue Division games.
August 29th, 2018 at 9:45 pm
Defense – Yeah, I was going to post that, that the Bears have a really good defense AND if their QB takes that 2nd year leap, which most people expect, they might be a good team, but figured I was getting too wordy and no one would read it.
Also with Winston suspended that means he can’t practice until after game 3, so if the team just throws him out there after not playing or practicing in a month, that’s bad news. That game looks like it could be a bad one, hopefully they’ll get that Eagles win I think they can get.
August 29th, 2018 at 10:15 pm
So,,,, while we are prognosticating, my theory is a 1-2 start with a 9-7 final record. The back half of the defense and the lack of depth on the banged up o-line and RB position worry me. Optimistically tho, the d line and kicking game (as long as the kicker stays healthy) should be worth 3 wins vs last season.
My biggest worry has to do with Koetter. The combination of rolling with an injured Winston and Folk, sticking with Martin when Barber worked better with this o-line’s blocking scheme a couple of sketchy time management issues really gives me pause about is he really the best to be in the captain’s chair. I like him way more as the coordinator. I know Rod has been saying this for a while but put Mike Smith as the head coach, Buckner as the DC and Koetter as the OC and then you might be 11-5.
August 29th, 2018 at 10:16 pm
Not sure I can handle another year without playoff football.
August 29th, 2018 at 10:42 pm
@tnew
Amen!
August 29th, 2018 at 11:05 pm
I tend to agree we have a chance against Philly mainly because of the changes
to the defense. As good as Micheal Bennett is ,he has been disruptive in Seattle
and that may continue. Last year ,the majority of their sacks came from DE’s
Losing two players from the defense may disrupt their chemistry. Also curious to see how Fletcher Cox plays this year. He has not been getting the monster stats he got several years ago. Not sure if its the way Shwartz is using him to collapse pocket but tackles and stuffs are down considerably from 3 or four years ago.
August 30th, 2018 at 3:43 am
Philly will easily beat the Bucs.
* If philly loses to Atl first week, philly will utterly embarras the bucs at home opener
Bucs first win has the best shot against pitt at home agsinst pitts pitiful defense. There will be a total of 70 pts in that game
Kobe Faker
August 30th, 2018 at 4:43 am
Yeah tnew, I’ve been banging that dumb since halfway through the 2016 season. It’s like the Bucs have the talent and they even have the coaches, but they have them doing the wrong thing. Just shuffling people around would make a huge difference and let everyone do what they do best, AND it wouldn’t require a rebuild, it can all be done on the fly. I know I know I know, it won’t happen, but if it did, there could be a remarkably fast turnaround time. Also while I’d much rather keep Dirk as OC, if he has to go then I think Monken at this point knows the offense well enough to run it. If the Glazers waited until week 5 to pull this coup off, it would be a huge plus for the team as the defense would finally have a real DC, and the OC would finally be calling plays has he should – and Mike Smith is absolutely a proven talent at HC. All the pieces are there, it’s just moving some seats around.
We shall see how it goes.
August 30th, 2018 at 8:36 am
We should have made a deal to get Terry Bridgewater. The guy was 11-5 in 2015. He is a proven winner. It would have also allowed us to dump JW
August 30th, 2018 at 8:40 am
dirk will make history…..the wrong kind of history, but he’ll be in the bucs record books…..1st coach fired mid season…..
#NOEXCUSESIN2018!!!!…#PRESSURESONTHECOACHES!!!!…GO BUCS!!!!
August 30th, 2018 at 9:01 am
“It’s all about being content,smelling the roses and enjoying the little things
Glazer boys don’t care
“End of this year and going to the 2019 season, HOPE will be ripped out of the hearts of Buc Fans”
Kobe Realist
August 30th, 2018 at 10:26 am
I’m busy now, but I’ll give you guys probability breakdown during the first new thread after lunch. It’s stupid, though, to say that 0-3 is inevitable. Right off the top of my head, I’d say there’s only a 25-30 percent chance of us going 0-3.