Paper Champions?
August 27th, 2018
Spreadsheeter likes Bucs’ talent.
Very interesting words from one of the four-letter’s chief spreadsheeters.
Apparently, the only ones who don’t think America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston, could be a top-shelf quarterback are the Bucs fans who howl he cannot win games.
But a funny thing is happening the past few months. The spreadsheeters, who used to loft Marcus Mariota in the air as the new standard of quarterbacks, have turned on him and instead are singing the praises of Jameis.
It used to be that the spreadsheeters made a face when discussing Jameis as if a mongrel was passing gas in the room.
Take this Michael Clay character. Previously, he was no fan of Jameis. But now Clay claims the Bucs, on paper, have one of the more talented teams in the league. And Clay claims one could make an argument that the Bucs were a cool sleeper team to bank on this year… until NFL strongman Roger Goodell slapped Jameis with a three-game suspension.
The Buccaneers’ sleeper appeal took a hard hit when Winston was handed a three-game suspension. It’s going to be very difficult for this team to avoid a slow start with the Saints, Eagles and Steelers on tap while Winston is out. And that’s a slow start they can’t afford in a competitive NFC South. The secondary is also in rough shape, which will make it tough to slow the likes of Drew Brees and Matt Ryan.
As Clay noted, for the Bucs it is a race to 10. Clay noted that 93.6 percent of the teams that win 10 games or more the past decade have reached the playoffs.
We all know what one of those 6.4 percent teams was, don’t we?
Joe wonders what Clay was getting at when he said the Bucs were one of the more talented teams in the NFL (on paper)? Clay expects the Bucs to win seven games.
If the Bucs have so much talent, why does he expect them to lose?
August 27th, 2018 at 10:06 am
The Fantasy Football crowd also thinks this is a “talented team”!!!!!!! But the “real” fans want the “bad azz team”!!!!!!!! and that meant that they need to win the line of scrimmage!!!!!!!! The recipe for “bad azz” teams is always very good lines!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The Lines have been upgraded, but are not dominate!!!!!!! They will have to continue the Job next offseason!!!!!!!
#trust the coaches!!!!!! Fix the “real” problem, the roster!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
GO Bucs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
August 27th, 2018 at 10:42 am
Koetter is an excellent Offensive coach, but IMHO his loyalty to Mike Smith may cost him his job. Bruce Arians was critical of the defense Mike Smith was playing, and so have other national media types.
August 27th, 2018 at 10:51 am
Joe, I love this site and I’m hear for YOU, man!
I’m sure you’ve done research into seeing what your core demographic is and it may have told you it’s the “Archie Bunker” crowd that appreciates making fun of metrics and spreadsheets. But, I don’t want you to age out like the dinosaurs, man. What those demographics are not telling you is that while your commenters are most likely older – your core is probably younger and of the generation that does buy in to the modern methodology of analysis.
The metrics guys were right to be a bit down on Jameis after his rookie year. His accuracy was bad as were a lot of his other metrics. A lot of QBs who start out that way do NOT improve the way Jameis has year to year. His stats have improved and THUS, so has the analysts’ opinion of him.
Improvement is not a given. So, for them to change their minds does mean that Jameis has improved his game.
Stay current and evolve, amigo! The world waits for no one.
August 27th, 2018 at 11:14 am
We have such a “talented team”. So talented that we do not have a single player ranked in the top 100. How did Evans not make the list. Even better, where is “America’s QB” Jameis Winston? The NFLs top 100 is voted on by the players and none of them have any respect for our supposedly best two players. Another big name missing is Gerald McCoy.
August 27th, 2018 at 11:51 am
Chris, I doubt seriously that Smitty still has his DC job because Dirk is HC. If the Glazer Boyz AND Jason Licht didn’t believe in Smitty, he wouldn’t be here right now. For the 2 years he’s been our DC, we simply haven’t had the horses on defense, especially on the DLine & in the Secondary (but our LB corps has been quite good most seem to believe). And yet, in terms of POINTS ALLOWED (IMO the key measure of effectiveness for a defense) he’s done quite well with what he had.
Bucs have finally figured out that they can’t JUST focus on offense; we’ve got to bring in some beasts on defense too. Kudos to Licht for what he accomplished this year in terms of UPGRADING our defensive TALENT. Smitty & his assistant coaches may not be the right ones for us, but we won’t know that until the end of the year. Let’s see what this defense can do with better TALENT using his defensive concepts and his play-calling. Personally I think it has the POTENTIAL to be a Top-10 defense. And yet, only time will tell … keep an open mind & let’s see what we’ve got. (BTW, met Jamie the other day, and he’s an awesome father).
August 27th, 2018 at 12:00 pm
El Buco Realisto Says:
August 27th, 2018 at 10:06 am
The Fantasy Football crowd also thinks this is a “talented team”!!!!!!! But the “real” fans want the “bad azz team”!!!!!!!! and that meant that they need to win the line of scrimmage!!!!!!!! The recipe for “bad azz” teams is always very good lines!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The Lines have been upgraded, but are not dominate!!!!!!! They will have to continue the Job next offseason!!!!!!!
#trust the coaches!!!!!! Fix the “real” problem, the roster!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
GO Bucs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
______________________________________________________
You need more exclamation points.
August 27th, 2018 at 12:05 pm
Chris- It made me cringe watching Detroit march down the field on that final drive. It was totally reminiscent of last year’s collapses. I don’t care WHO is on the field or whether it’s preseason, there’s no excuse for a team to just march down the field like that.
Am I nit-picking?! You bet your a$$ I am. Fans deserve better than to see 57 minutes of pretty good football be swept away by a defense playing scared. That was 100% on coaching and it absolutely petrifies me that we would even see it in a preseason game. Preseason is where you throw caution to the wind, no?
August 27th, 2018 at 12:33 pm
Agree with Roof Cleaning. And Bucsfan comments about marching down the field are on the mark. Smith’s defensive strategies are too often just dumb. And he can’t seem to adjust mid-game. The 4th quarter march is a good example. They knew the short passing game was going to be in play and yet could (did) not change their approach. Lost game. Dumb.
August 27th, 2018 at 12:41 pm
This is the most talented roster since the Super Bowl team and I think it’s pretty obvious. Many tried to say and think that last year but it just wasn’t true. We filled most of the holes on the roster and yes, on paper I’d say the starting roster stacks up well against other contenders. But injuries happen and every Super Bowl champion has had to rely on their depth to get them there. Not sure we’re there yet. Then there’s that whole not having your best quarterback the first three games thing.
August 27th, 2018 at 1:07 pm
Can we wait to hate on MS when the games count and the actual starters look bad?
For one – even with the starters – we’ve been out a ton of bodies (Vea/Unrein/Allen/various CBs each game).
Second – even without like 1/3 or 1/2 of the starting defense out there; the 1st team has held their own.
Vs the Dolphins – 2 sacks by early in the 2nd quarter. Tannehil’s 1st drive stopped for a long missed FG. 79.9 QB rating. Gave up too many big runs early; but not terrible performance in general. Speaking of run defense:
vs the Titans – Derek Henry/Dion Lewis combine for 4 carries for 8 yards. In general we held the Titans to 3 YPC throughout the game. Forced a punt the 1st possession; before giving up 1 TD drive to Mariota on a big play that Brent Grimes and Justin Evans wiffed. Still – it was 20-7 at half. We gave up 14 points in the game…
vs the Lions – gave up 6 points total in the 1st half with more starters playing. Stafford completed just 50% of his passes… 18 attempts to get to 113 yards is bad.
So in general – this preaseson the Bucs have given up an average of like 8 total points in the 1st halves of games; which would be one of the best figures in the league – especially when you consider this has been one of the highest scoring preseasons.
They’ve done that while typically missing 4-5 key starters each contest.
I honestly feel pretty damn good about the defense compared to last year’s sh1t show
August 27th, 2018 at 1:20 pm
Spot on Lord C. Bucsfanman, nit-picking about 4th qtr window-washers in preseason is actually kinda funny.
August 27th, 2018 at 1:26 pm
Lord C.- Your point is valid. Yes the defense is better (How could it be worse?!). However, the mindset has to be to curb-stomp teams from whistle to whistle. Preseason or not, we’re trying to change a culture. That drive indicated to me that we are going to play similarly in similar situations. There were no adjustments at all. Why settle because it’s a preseason game?!
Overall, the Bucs have looked sharp outside of a few moments. If we get an average defense and continue to move the ball like we have, we should be a playoff team, IMO.
August 27th, 2018 at 1:29 pm
Defense Rules- Fanman demands perfection!!! LOL!
Seriously though, that didn’t bother you at all?! I find that hard to believe when “defense” is your first name!
August 27th, 2018 at 1:33 pm
Chris@Apple Roof Cleaning Tampa Says
“Koetter is an excellent Offensive coach, but IMHO his loyalty to Mike Smith may cost him his job. Bruce Arians was critical of the defense Mike Smith was playing, and so have other national media types.”
Arians was only critical in the second half, and by that point it no longer mattered.
Bearing in mind that Smith would have withheld some things because it was preseason, and that the defense dominated in the first half with the first and second stringers, the criticism of Smith is unfounded.
He;s showing what he can do when he actually gets decent talent.
August 27th, 2018 at 1:36 pm
Godeep66 Says
“We have such a “talented team”. So talented that we do not have a single player ranked in the top 100.”
Cut the crap.
This team was 5-11 last year, that’s why no one got in the top 100, but to ignore the changes made this off season is idiotic at best.
August 27th, 2018 at 1:42 pm
@Bucsfanman
Preseason just isn’t the place for that imo.
You aren’t game planning and adjusting much in-game to opponents and you typically aren’t calling plays or managing the game with the #1 goal of winning the game. For the starters the goal is to get out healthy and get meaningful reps so that they’re a more well oiled machine by week 1- especially on offense. For everyone else preseason is basically glorified practice/evaluation. And the players in the game in the 4th quarter likely are not making the team and probably don’t even have enough grasp of the playbook to execute complex adjustments even if they wanted. A lot of these guys get signed in the middle of camps as a needed body.
August 27th, 2018 at 1:55 pm
Lord C.- I understand your argument but I’ll have to disagree on this one. I’m not crazy upset by it but it’s one of those things that you try to instill in a team, not just players, coaches too. There was no exotic defense needed, no major adjustments. We dropped into soft zone all the way down the field. Would it have killed us to run press or man for one or two plays?! That’s all I’m saying!
I’ll put it this way. If we were running blitzes or playing man and got burnt, I would’ve felt much better about it. We went straight into prevent. And, what do they say about the “prevent” defense?!
Preseason. Lets see what these guys can do.
August 27th, 2018 at 2:29 pm
#FreeTheAmishRifle