“Accurate” Is The Word For Jameis
August 21st, 2018
Precision.
This ought to make the haters spit coffee through their noses.
There are two statistical outfits that seem to rule the land with their research. There is the PFF tribe, which Joe views with a very skeptical eye, and FootballOutsiders.com, which Joe trusts.
Why does Joe trust Football Outsiders? Well, Joe knows a few of the guys that run the joint. And Joe also has background info on the PFF tribe which they really don’t want the general public to know.
Additionally, the crowd that runs Football Outsiders is not arrogant in a way that suggests, “This is what the numbers say so that has to be the way it is and you can go to hell.” Joe remembers once the guy who runs Football Outsiders, Aaron Schatz, wrote a feature using his statistical information but openly questioned his own research because he thought it was skewered.
That speaks volumes to Joe. That’s an open mind and someone who is not a slave to numbers.
Anyway, Scott Kacsmar of Football Outsiders, typing for BSPN, produced an exhaustive list about who are the best and worst quarterbacks in all sorts of categories.
Included in that list is the most accurate (and least accurate) quarterbacks. Kacsmar said his All-22 research and statistical homework and passing charts analysis show that the third-most accurate quarterback in the NFL is none other than America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston.
Winston actually set a lot of career-highs in passing in 2017. One of the main reasons his C%+ was so high is that he threw the deepest passes in the league, at an average depth of 10.3 yards. He also was efficient with almost every player he targeted, save for departed running back Doug Martin (minus-20.7 percent C%+) and deep threat DeSean Jackson (minus-0.1 percent C%+). With O.J. Howard and Chris Godwin entering their second seasons, Winston could be poised for even better numbers once he returns from serving a three-game suspension.
What is “C%+?” Kacsmar has the definition here and how Football Outsiders came to this conclusion.
As you read in the excerpt above, Kacsmar reached this finding even factoring in how Jameis and DeSean Jackson had troubles connecting.
And this was even with Jameis having a bum shoulder no less!
Yeah, the way some folks freak out over Jameis, the Bucs should run off this guy, one of the more accurate quarterbacks in the league and the best quarterback this franchise has ever had not named “Steve Young” because of an Uber hassle in Arizona two years ago?
C’mon! Give Joe a friggin’ break!
August 21st, 2018 at 1:21 am
JW really likes to push the ball downfield, and I think that is great in high school and college, but in the NFL, the defenders are so fast, athletic, they make the field very small (ie, cover lots of ground in no time)
If you look at the best QB in the NFL of the past 15 years (at least), it is clear Brady doesn’t dare push the ball as far downfield as JW does–he goes for the quicker, shorter routes, hitting receivers in stride & allowing them to get YAC. That is really the model for a QB to play”chess” in the NFL. JW is never going to have Brady’s lighting quick release, however, so maybe he can indeed create a new paradigm someday for the model NFL QB.
August 21st, 2018 at 9:20 am
Joe, why did you hide this one? Nobody knows it’s here. Shouldn’t the good ones get max coverage? Move it up the page. You’ll get a lot more than 2 comments.
August 21st, 2018 at 9:31 am
most haters already had their minds made up before he became a buc…..Winston is coming for blood this year!!!!…lol…
#NOEXCUSESIN2018!!!…#PRESSURESONTHECOACHES!!!!…GO BUCS!!!!
August 21st, 2018 at 9:34 am
Told y’all JW is a top 10 qb
August 21st, 2018 at 9:35 am
D-Jax is just so darn fast. Even when they connected deep in Tennessee, Jameis threw that ball about 55 yards and STILL was slightly underthrown. Unreal. But JW is looking sharp so far this preseason.
August 21st, 2018 at 9:37 am
The biggest change in Winston throws this year is his ability to put the ball in the basket. He has always been able to put the ball in the receivers gloves but not their basket. Do to Winstons history with baseball has always been able to fire that ball into a target. However to have the ball fall into a receivers hand Like a basketball player shooting a 3 point basket while the receiver is running underneath it was very much a foreign concept for Winston. It appears through 2 preseason games he has improved that throw. Now the last QB pass he needs to master is hitting the receiver in stride for YAC yards
August 21st, 2018 at 9:40 am
Hes the best qb in nfc not named rodgers.. He is the best in the league out of the pocket besides rodgers.. Best thing tampa ever did .. So many games he had us up in the 4th and the defense lost it .. At l.east 3 last year alone that i can think of off the top of my head .. He seems alot more focused on the football aspect of football then all the things the orginzation wants him to be ..
August 21st, 2018 at 9:45 am
It appears that Jameis has greatly improved this year throwing tighter spirals with greater accuracy.
He is clearly the best player on the field and his confidence shows.
Even Koetter has admitted this.
August 21st, 2018 at 9:51 am
Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
August 21st, 2018 at 9:55 am
Jameis was the second highest rated QB during the last month of last season per PFF(Brady was number one).
Jameis has a 132.2 QB passer rating so far during this preseason.
August 21st, 2018 at 9:58 am
Just keep the blinders on .. Or look at the glass half empty ..but that is a poor outlook to have on life..
August 21st, 2018 at 10:21 am
Remember all last year when I said the only WR Jameis had issues with was Desean Jackson and that if everyone else had the connection, the fault was on JAckson?
So nice to be proven right:
He also was efficient with almost every player he targeted, save for departed running back Doug Martin (minus-20.7 percent C%+) and deep threat DeSean Jackson (minus-0.1 percent C%+).
In your face naysayers.
August 21st, 2018 at 10:24 am
813bucboi Says
“most haters already had their minds made up before he became a buc”
You nailed it. Drop the Mic.
August 21st, 2018 at 10:28 am
So he was accurate, except for his number two wide receiver and his number one RB? Oh, ok.
August 21st, 2018 at 10:31 am
It is a sorry thing that people make the decision to hate regardless of whether it is deserved or not. What if they were treated the same way?
Jameis Winston has gotten better each year in all areas except one, and there is a reasonable explanation for that one area.
As I said in my latest post on my page (click my name to read the whole thing):
From 2015 (his rookie year) his passing percentage went from 58.3 to 60.8 to 63.8 . During that same span, his QB Rating went from 84.2 to 86.1 to 92.2. That’s substantial improvement. But it does not stop there. From 2015 to 2017, his average yards per game went from 252.63 to 255.63 to 269.54, while his passing attempts went from an average per game of 33 to 35 to 34. He threw for more yards per game with an injured shoulder last year (2017), and was on pace for 4312.64 yards for the year had he not been injured…yet another improvement. When speaking of Interceptions, he averaged 0.94 per game in 2015, 1.13 in 2016, and 0.85 in 2017 (which is an improvement of 0.28 over 2016).
Fumbles were the only area he did not improve…but let’s look at them a second: In 2015, he fumbled 6 times and lost 2. In 2016, he fumbled 10 times and lost 6. In 2017, he fumbled 15 times and lost 7. In this, he certainly did get worse. But everything happens for a reason. Discovering that reason is how we can find ways to improve. So why have the Jameis fumbles increased? Well, to begin with, in 2017 he injured his throwing shoulder in game 2. From then on, his grip on the ball had to be tenuous. But more than that, in 2015, the Offensive line let him get sacked an average of 1.7 sacks per game. In 2016, this number increased to 2.2 per game. But in 2017, while he was playing injured, the number of times the Offensive Line let him get sacked increased to 2.5 times per game.
So the myth that the haters perpetrated all this off season, claiming that Winston has not improved from year to year, has been a complete fabrication. A lie.
August 21st, 2018 at 10:35 am
Walter Seidel may as well Say
“God himself could show up and say Winston has his favor and I would still hate Winston.”
August 21st, 2018 at 10:53 am
JAMEIS WINSTON IS MY QB he will be here, whether ya’ll like it or not, unless he gets pissed off bout all this hatred, he might want to move on, like when shaq dumped orlando for the lakers, ya’ll make dat happen and you set this franchise up for failure for at least 5-6 years maybe more imho, then it will be too late, then i don’t want to hear your whining when we have a QB just like McClown running the damn offense, get a grip, we have an accurate elusive, strong armed, big time QB that is going to get better and better as the years go by. start supporting this young man. he’s paying his pentance for his offence, the team and the league has moved forward, get over it!!!!
August 21st, 2018 at 11:09 am
All’s well that ends well, and barring a meteor hitting Earth, Winstons end with the Bucs is far off. In fact you can say this is near his beginning.
August 21st, 2018 at 11:17 am
Bucs team passer rating this preseason? 1 OH freaking 2! JW doing well, but not surprising if you saw his last 6 games of last year… he was lights freaking out. BUT don’t ignore Mookin’s play calling. It’s been very very good. If the defense wasn’t such a disaster I’d say Bucs would go 2 and 1 during JW suspension however 0-3 here we come.
August 21st, 2018 at 11:25 am
These Jameis articles are Xanax inducing!
I’m happy to see him improving. Some of the aspects Bonzai mentions however, are a direct result of trying to throw downfield too often (ie. sacks, INTs, etc.). Some of it is design, some on the QB. I would rather Jameis throw less or throw short than risk a turnover. We have to have balance.
I think this will be a BIG year for Jameis! I hope anyway!
August 21st, 2018 at 12:03 pm
The lack of short passes is an indictment on the oc not the qb. Koetter runs a vertical offense with a very high priority on explosive plays. Brady plays in a modified west coast system that thrives on short passes and moving the chains. Apples and oranges.
August 21st, 2018 at 12:14 pm
Thank you
1. Football Outsiders
2. bucsfan90
August 21st, 2018 at 1:13 pm
It’s skewed, not skewered. Skew is when one side of a distribution of data points has a longer tail. Satisfaction data for example typically has a pronounced negative skew.
And it’s been nearly two and a half years since the Uber thing.
Still, Joe has a good point. Anyone who actually watches the Bucs games can see how accurate Winston is. Yet, national talking heads routinely say he “isn’t accurate enough” or “has accuracy issues.” This meme is parroted here by the anti-Jameis trolls.
And that’s not to say I haven’t been disappointed at times. I really thought Winston was going to seize the (Peyton) Manning Mantle of Manliness. Manning went 32-32 his first four seasons with 81 interceptions. After that, he went 154-47 which disaggregates to better than 12-4. Think about it. A 12-4 season was below average from his fifth season on.
I’m beginning to think, though, that Winston may not become the next Peyton Manning. He’s much more an Aaron Rodgers type quarterback. I’m hoping that Pickgrin or St. Pete or even Joe can convince me I’m wrong, but I think we’ll have settle for watching a quarterback of Aaron Rodgers caliber lead our team for the next 15 years.
August 21st, 2018 at 3:32 pm
@Gambalero,
Winston looks more live Favre than Rodgers to me.
August 21st, 2018 at 4:52 pm
Dapostman, you give Winston time and he’s an assassin. I expect from here on out, Jameis is gonna show up. He’s known the story all along, but there’s no false pretense anymore. The local media have been downright brutal toward him, and the vitriol sent his way was way out of line. So he’s just gonna do his thing without trying to please the locals. He’s just gonna be Fameis. He’s gonna be Dad. That’s who he’s playing for now. Tampa better hope he wants to stay. He’ll be writing his own ticket after this season.
August 21st, 2018 at 5:35 pm
@Gambelero
You won’t get negativity or criticism of JW’s talent from me. Now…he’s already got a poor three game start…that upsets me…but there is little doubt JW can ball.
But I agree with Dapostman…perhaps we’re nitpicking but JW reminds me a lot more of Favre than Rodgers. All three play fearlessly or like the cliche “gunslinger”. But Rodgers is smooth…he glides when he runs…throws the ball great…this is not to diminish JW’s skill set. I consider JW a pretty good runner…but he’s slow…not smooth…but hey I nitpick here because JW has that uncanny ability to make guys miss and still get off good passes or a run for first down.
Bottom line…IF JW can stay on the field…he’s absolutely talented enough to lead us deep into the playoffs if we have a good team. Rodgers…ditto…same for Favre…but those two have SB’s so it’s not being a hater to suggest we’re being homers comparing JW to these two before he at least reaches the playoffs…which I hope begins THIS YEAR!
August 21st, 2018 at 7:17 pm
Holy sheyet Bonzai! Hahahaha I never knew you could click peoples moniker! Thanks!
August 21st, 2018 at 9:21 pm
Is it a hater to call him inconsistent ?