Window Closing
July 23rd, 2018
Controls Bucs’ future.
Roughly two years ago, during Joe’s weekly, hour-long local radio appearance with his good friend “The Big Dog,” Steve Duemig, Joe predicted the Bucs had a short window to make a Super Bowl run.
Joe also wrote the same thing on this here website more than once. And Joe got absolutely roasted for such a suggestion.
Why did Joe write that and speak it on the radio? Because too many players were going to need to get paid in 2019, and the Bucs were going to have to make difficult decisions on who to keep and who to let walk in order to stay under the salary cap.
Well, those days are just around the corner. Not only are Donovan Smith, Ali Marpet and Kwon Alexander free agents after this season, there is also the crossroads on retaining America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston.
The Bucs could release Jameis at any point before the 2019 league year begins March 13 without any salary cap consequences.
Quite a few fans will scoff at Joe for bringing this up, but Mike Sando of BSPN is of the same mind. In fact, he said no player on the Bucs roster has a greater ability to pull Tampa Bay out of Buccaneers Cove (last place in the NFC South) and lead them to glory than Jameis.
And that’s a double-edged sword, Sando writes.
Winston maturing on and off the field is the one variable that could influence the Buccaneers’ trajectory most dramatically. The problem is, Winston will only become more expensive from a salary-cap standpoint, which will restrict the team’s ability to build around him. That means Winston must take a huge step forward.
Here is why all of this stinks out loud: There likely is not a more talented NFL team widely expected to once again finish last in its division. That’s how good the NFC South is. And if the Bucs part ways with Jameis and return to the dark ages, it will set the team back years.
In so many words, Jameis has the Bucs by the cojones.
The Bucs are a frighteningly short period of time from matching one of the worst stretches of sorry football in NFL history. From 1983 through 1996, the Bucs missed the playoffs in 14 straight seasons. If the Bucs miss the playoffs again this fall, that will be 11 straight seasons without a meaningful January game.
And who knows how many more to come if the Bucs wash their hands of Jameis?
July 23rd, 2018 at 12:25 am
“The 4 rookie QBs (w/ Mahomes, Trubinsky, DWatson) will decide JW3 fate here in Tampa”
Kobe Faker
“How so?”
The Buc Realist
“If half of the 7 rookie/1st year QBs are successful this season, it will give confidence and direction to the Glazer boys that drafting a new franchise QB in the coming draft is possible and the correct move forward for the Tampa Bay Bucs”
Kobe Faker
“You are Legend on your own mind”
The Buc Realist
July 23rd, 2018 at 12:34 am
[Here’s another one that has to learn the hard way. — Joe]
July 23rd, 2018 at 1:37 am
If Winston shows no improvement when he finally does play then why spend all that money? Will it make Jameis play better? What’s the difference between having a QB that doesn’t win, to a new rookie QB who might struggle? Now if Jameis plays really well none of this talk will even matter. It’s still up to Jameis.
July 23rd, 2018 at 2:29 am
In 2016 I thought that 2018 was supposed to be the year. I hope I am right, but my now expectations are low.
July 23rd, 2018 at 4:39 am
Draft a serviceable rookie QB (see Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott) and watch that window open back up faster than you can say famous jameis.
July 23rd, 2018 at 6:00 am
Once again, I feel duty bound to point out a few things. Last year:
Jameis Winston and the offense played well enough for this team to be 11-5. Scoff if you like, but if you add the two games Nick Folk (kicker) and the four games the defense blew the lead late in games, that’s six. Six plus the five games we won is eleven wins.
Winston’s throwing shoulder was first injured in game two. That means he played injured from then on, yet STILL managed more that 3,500 yards and a 92.2 QB rating, the highest of his career. That rating being so much better means he actually DID improve last year.
And keep in mind, Winston kept reaggrivating his shoulder because of bad LG, RG and RT blocking (when Dotson was not in). Play after play, he was hit. Hard.
Also keep in mind that he had no running game.
Also keep in mind that they had no bye.
Also keep in mind that 21 of 22 starters were injured throughout the season.
Also keep in mind, Jameis eventually missed three games because of that injury.
So 11-5 was not that far away, even in the toughest division in football. And guess what? All of those weaknesses have been addressed.
Winston’s shoulder is healed.
RG and LG and even Center have been upgraded.
Defense has had a major influx of talent.
A new, allegedly more reliable kicker has been signed.
A future RB has been drafted (at least we hope he will turn into a feature back).
How anyone with a lick of sense cannot see that this team has the potential to take a huge leap forward this year in unfathomable to me. Honestly, I don’t understand how every Bucs fan paying attention can not be excited.
July 23rd, 2018 at 6:08 am
If drafting a great franchise quarterback is so easy, why did the Bucs not draft one between Doug Williams and Jameis Winston?
Unless Jameis does something stupid off the field, the Bucs would be idiots to let him get away. He is the straw that broke the Quarterback Curse’s back. Wanting him released brings the Quarterback Curse back to life!
July 23rd, 2018 at 6:09 am
Joe, you talk about Winston like he’s been the savior, returning the Bucs to the Greatness of the Dungy/Chucky days. WTH?? How can a team be “set back” from the turd this team is currently?? Disposing of Jameis will lead to the light.
July 23rd, 2018 at 6:10 am
I agree the window is closing probably faster than we think. It appears not only for the reasons Joe listed but also because of the incessant protesting these players are hell bent on doing. When will millionaires learn that protesting is a poor man’s way of doing things. Millionaires do things more intelligently by getting involved and creating foundations and other instruments that will correct whatever it is they think is wrong. Don’t protest, do something positive. You’re losing your fan base and don’t give me the line that I’m wrong about that.
July 23rd, 2018 at 6:39 am
If you need an example of this, just look at former Buc, Vincent Jackson. He saw a need and met it. No protest, just a commitment to make a difference. Great role model.
July 23rd, 2018 at 6:41 am
Yah. I disagree. What if they sign Jameis to big deal and he plays like last year. He played like a franchise qb in 4 of the 13 games last year. Injury or no injury. Is that good enough to get 100 mil. I think not And that my friends will set the bucs back 5 -10 years.
I said before the suspension that Jameis would take next step and have best year. Sitting three games could mess up everything , including timing with receivers which could take several games to get back. By then , it could be to late.
I hope I am wrong.
July 23rd, 2018 at 6:46 am
Window closed draft day 2015
July 23rd, 2018 at 6:58 am
@Joe … “There likely is not a more talented NFL team widely expected to once again finish last in its division. That’s how good the NFC South is.” Another excuse Joe … Wah, wah, wah, the competition is too tough. Horsepuckey! Bucs haven’t been a BALANCED TEAM since our SB year, and even that wasn’t truly balanced. Dominating DEFENSE & decent OFFENSE.
The two of them together, playing COMPLIMENTARY FOOTBALL, dominated. Bucs defense ranked #1 (in POINTS ALLOWED) … giving up an incredible 196 points … while the Bucs offense ranked #18 (in POINTS SCORED), scoring 346 pts on 5,002 total yds … meh. Bucs QBs threw 10 INTs on the season … but the Bucs defense had 31 INTs that year (Bucs had 21 turnovers altogether, but our defense forced 38 total turnovers). In short, we won the turnover battle handily & our offense capitalized. Bucs rushed a little over 40% that year & used a lot of short/intermediate passing (Brad’s arm wasn’t the strongest). Winning the turnover battle also had a lot to do with us winning the TOP battle IMO. COMPLIMENTARY FOOTBALL, where one side feeds off of what the other does. We’re poised to do that again … IF our offense can limit turnovers this year.
The NFC South BTW was reasonably strong that year too. We won the division with a 12-4 record, but the Saints (9-7), the Falcons (9-6-1) & Panthers (7-9) weren’t that shabby. We lost to the Saints … TWICE … but beat the Falcons & Panthers TWICE each. Time for NO MORE EXCUSES. All winners have one thing in common … THEY WIN.
July 23rd, 2018 at 7:25 am
The idea of this Bucs team sniffing a Super Bowl is absurd but I thought you were correct two years ago, there was a window of opportunity for a Super Bowl run.
July 23rd, 2018 at 7:38 am
While I agree that getting rid of Jameis RIGHT NOW is a mistake, I don’t understand why people prop him up like he’s the greatest thing since sliced bread. Just like everyone else on this football team, he CAN be replaced. Frankly, if he doesn’t improve, he SHOULD be replaced.
One of my favorite sayings from the GMC vitriol is that we can lose with him, so we can lose without him. The same applies to Jameis. The Bucs owe him nothing nor do the fans if he can’t produce.
Jameis will get every opportunity to show he belongs this year. As a fan I am rooting for him to prosper.
July 23rd, 2018 at 8:06 am
I think we will likely find ourselves in the middle with Jameis……plays well enough not to cut but doesn’t play well enough to commit big bucks to a long term contract. We will see.
July 23rd, 2018 at 8:17 am
I like how joe thinks it is go with Jw3 or its back the the dark ages!!!!!! It seems that joe does not think that the Bucs cannot find a good, accurate QB thru the draft or free-agency????
Bucsfanman is right!!!!! And Joe, if you think fans are rough on GMC, wait until JW3 gets 20 mil a year, and he throws inaccurate, missing wide open wr and watching wr have to stop and sit and then make an acrobatic catch with no yac because the ball was off target!!!!!! Wait until the “real” fans see that and average win-loss record and how fast they will come down on the former face!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
July 23rd, 2018 at 8:17 am
Perhaps, just perhaps this whole off field fiasco can work to our advantage.
It COULD pull the team together, focus a shaky coaching staff and allow Ownership to lowball a good QB for a few years with a prove it, incentive and performance laden contract – thus not messing up the cap situation.
Im not predicting this year – just cant do it again – so I will wait and see and cheer on my team AGAIN.
However, the SuperBowl is in our house for the 2020 season. . . Im not sayin, Im just sayin
July 23rd, 2018 at 8:17 am
IMO if Winston doesn’t take a giant step this year he should be gone. Also there is a QB out there that I think would be a better pick up than Bridgewater & thats McCarren. If gven the chance I think he could be a starting QB.
July 23rd, 2018 at 8:44 am
D.R. I’m not trying to be obsequious but I just agree with the vast majority of your posts.
I certainly understand that QB is the single most important position on any football team. But as you point out football is still a team game.
I think I’d rather try and repeat our old success that you laid out…top D in the league and an adequate offense.
And so how good does the QB have to be in that scenario…Trent Dilfer…Flacco…
Last year’s SB winning QB Foles? Thing is if you pay your QB 20 million…the minimum we’d fork out to keep Jameis that represents at least FIVE good players at 4 million each. Just head to Spottrac and see what that currently represents on the Bucs. Five players…close to ten percent of the roster…that’s a lot of talent at a lot of different positions. Of course you may wish to spend 7 million on three really good players.
My point is paying that kind of money for hope is not prudent. ONLY the proven superstars are truly worth that money. Jameis is not going to emerge from his rookie contract as a proven superstar…he’s not even going to be a winning QB.
And while I take Bonzai’s point he actually also makes mine. Jameis needs a good defense and other great players to QB a winning team. No shame a lot of
QB’s need that. Point is Jameis is not that QB that carries a team on his back.
He flashes for sure but he’s wildly inconsistent in both his personal and professional life. If he blows up the final 13 and wins 9 or 10 then things change. But average will NOT be worth 20+ million annually.
I’d rather stop looking for the next Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady..as in Jameis…and simply find the next Brad Johnson. Keep building the D and our offense is already good enough if we found a QB with composure and management skills.
Leadership and management skills start with the individual’s ability to manage THEIR OWN life…something Fameis has failed miserably.
July 23rd, 2018 at 9:01 am
I can’t believe I’m actually going to agree with you. If Jameis Winston doesn’t pan out it won’t be back to the dark ages. We’re *in* the dark ages and have been here for a very long time. If Jameis doesn’t work out then a new QB with a proper head coach can turn things around very quickly.
July 23rd, 2018 at 9:21 am
Joe I remember 2 years back when Jameis said something along the lines of “I would take a pay cut to get Ramsey in the draft” that statement plus his supposed love for the game would leave me to believe he wouldn’t go for a max deal when he could take less to keep others around.
July 23rd, 2018 at 9:30 am
2019 will be a total rebuilding year for the top down. Solid GM and hopefully a pro bowl level QB…..not one that snuck in because someone else did not want to play in the pro bowl. Do keep in mind that that Winston only got in because Brady decided not to do lay in it. *** And Kirk Cousins should have been the replacement over JW as depicted below:
If you’re looking at the stats to try and make sense of this, take your pick. Cousins has more passing yards than Winston (4,166 to 4,042), a higher completion percentage (69.8 percent compared to 58.3), more passing touchdowns (29 to 22), fewer interceptions (11 to 15) and a higher quarterback rating (101.6 to 84.2). Winston has one more rushing touchdown (6 to 5), but is one rushing touchdown enough to make up for all the other stats?
July 23rd, 2018 at 9:35 am
If Winston plays well he should get paid if he doesn’t move on as simple as that. I just have a different theory because everyone is looking at market value of good quarterbacks who’ve gotten paid, Winston hasn’t done anything to expect to be paid 30 mil a year, no he couldn’t get less than his 5th year option
People should just stop because your thinking like fans and you don’t make sense. The decision is made based on production trust and the direction he’s leaving his team in…… It’s not based on how much he will get paid, that’s your silly theory, everyone knows what any first overall pick will get in a second contact. It’s about whether he should get the contract not about how much it will be worth. Haters are mad and don’t want him to get the cash. STFU
July 23rd, 2018 at 10:02 am
well Winston and dirk are tied to the hip….if Winston fails, dirk fails…..with good coaching, winstons window could be wide open….dirk, not so much…..
with that said, both have to win this year or their careers wont be the same after this year…..
#NOEXCUSESIN2018!!!!….#PRESSURESONTHECOACHES!!!!….GO BUCS!!!!
July 23rd, 2018 at 12:10 pm
Very sorry to say that the Bucs will never win a championship with Winston as their starting QB. I think the Bucs brass are starting to realize that.
July 23rd, 2018 at 12:33 pm
SuperBowl? we cant even win 6 games, lets be real. i would rather lose every game and have quality players than a crotch grabber like winston.
July 23rd, 2018 at 1:34 pm
I say we should lock him up now at a discounted rate. That has an out clause if he causes any little distraction. I think that would show the team is supporting him so the media will move on from his latest incident. He will sign so he can say he is moving on and learning from his mistake. And knowing the team has his back is motivation to never let them or the fans down again. All the haters can quit with there we should cut him. And he knows if he performs well and stays out of trouble he will get a huge contract where his grandkids won’t have to worry about money at the ripe old age of 28-29. So take a little less now knowing it is up to him to cash in in 4-5 years when the contract is up. Sounds like a great move for everybody to me.