Not A Kind Prediction For Bucs
July 20th, 2018
Sad drumbeat continues.
Joe is pretty sure we all know what may happen if this comes true.
Props to Nate Davis for not being lazy. The USA Today NFL writer could have been sloppy like so many others and picked the records of each team and have 90 percent with winning records or vice-versa.
That’s 267 games, if you are scoring at home (well done).
Instead, Davis decided to pick each and every game scheduled in the NFL this fall. And what he has come up with is a 5-11 record for the Bucs.
Davis sums up the 2018 season for the Bucs in one sentence.
Their offseason seemed encouraging … until their quarterback got suspended.
If that does come true, there will likely be massive changes at One Buc Palace come January. The only mystery would be if Team Glazer grants Bucs coach Dirk Koetter a mulligan for losing his starting quarterback to open the season.
July 20th, 2018 at 9:11 am
10 – 6
July 20th, 2018 at 9:12 am
Three games.
Jameis was out three games last year, and he still had his best year in most stats.
So this team is not just about him. Nick Folk cost two games last year. Defense blew the lead in the final minutes four times last year. Flip those and the Bucs could have been 11-5 instead of 5-11.
What that tells us is that with the improvements made this off season, we’re ready. The Jameis suspension will not be as big a deal as people think, because the rest of the team is so much better.
Better protection for the QB, which means fewer fumbles.
Better pass rush.
Better secondary.
Improved kicking.
Better running game.
I realize the haters and doubters will a!ways be negative, but if anyone truly takes an objective look at this team, they will realize their time is now.
July 20th, 2018 at 9:13 am
aint no passes this year!!!!!…..this staff used their pass in 2017!!!!!!!……im not buying what davis is trying to sell…..this staff has known about the possibility of Winston having to sit since nov of 2017!!!!!….they’ve had more than enough time to create a game plan around fitz for 3games…..
news flash: when Winston comes back, we’ll still have 13games left to be played!!!!….losing Winston for 3games is no excuse to have a lousy season….we’ve made upgrades to the defense and this will be the 4th year dirk has been in charge of this offense….
this year, we’ll finally get to see if its coaching and scheme or players and talent….
#NOEXCUSESIN2018!!!!!….#PRESSURESONTHECOACHES!!!!!….GO BUCS!!!!
July 20th, 2018 at 9:22 am
@ Bonzai
You are on point for all your projections and rationale…..
Bucs are not just about the starting QB anymore (hopefully)
July 20th, 2018 at 9:24 am
screw the stats…..I would rather have Winston have career lows as far as stats and career highs in the “W” column…all those stats Winston had last year and it only produced 3wins…..
#NOEXCUSESIN2018!!!!!….#PRESSURESONTHECOACHES!!!!!….GO BUCS!!!!
July 20th, 2018 at 9:25 am
Agreed Bonzai, we are bigger than ONE player. Most will agree that we seemed to have improved in the offseason. I won’t make a prediction but I will say this: I’m a Bucs fan and I EXPECT to go to the playoffs. If you’re a fan this is what you SHOULD expect.
Anything remotely similar to 5-11 should get EVERYBODY fired! Plain and simple!
Say it with me 813: NO EXCUSES!!!!
July 20th, 2018 at 9:28 am
I think 8-8 or 9-7…..But if you examine both of those records, we are likely having a winning season that falls apart at the end…..or another losing season that rallies just short….again. The suspension of Winston might be a valid excuse not to hold Koetter to the playoff or fired stance….but reality is after 4 yrs with Koetter, if Winston still is just middle of the road, the team has to explore what they have with another coach before its time to pay Winston an extension. They have a 5th yr option….they can tag him 2x….so that’s 3 yrs for a new regime to get Winston on track. If that still hasn’t happened, then you let him walk or trade him.
Sucks to be Koetter……
July 20th, 2018 at 9:44 am
Joe,
Any chance you can add a like button or a comment button to posts?
July 20th, 2018 at 9:47 am
Everybody is putting an awful lot of stock on a QB that hasn’t really won this team sh!t in the first place.
The rest of the TEAM can rally around each other, choose to ignore the clown show, and you know…play good football.
July 20th, 2018 at 9:51 am
Totally confident, right guys?
The only people the Bucs are going to surprise are those that think they will have a winning record this year. I hope I’m wrong.
July 20th, 2018 at 9:54 am
Shane247,
That’s a terrible idea. It’s a lazy way to agree or disagree with someone without putting in the effort to respond. For some it’ll become a popularity contest and the site will become an echo-chamber for those that think a certain way. Look no further than any site that utilizes a voting feature.
July 20th, 2018 at 9:54 am
I won’t make a prediction but I will say this: I’m a Bucs fan and I EXPECT to go to the playoffs. If you’re a fan this is what you SHOULD expect.
^^BINGO^^
they’ve had time….they’ve made upgrades….they must make the playoffs…..
#NOEXCUSESIN2018!!!!!….#PRESSURESONTHECOACHES!!!!!….GO BUCS!!!!
July 20th, 2018 at 10:02 am
@813, I love your passion and most of your takes but on this I think we disagree. I don’t see this team making the playoffs and not because they won’t be better but rather, because our division foes are still just better. I hope I am wrong but I have no reason to think otherwise.
July 20th, 2018 at 10:15 am
Sticking to my guns sports fans Bucs Record 7-9 if im right heads will roll both coach’s and players when the season ends. P.s. but i hope im wrong though.
July 20th, 2018 at 10:28 am
The above prediction is clearly based on each teams results from last year. We all know that every year 5 or 6 teams that did not make the playoffs the previous year make the playoffs. So where are they?? The Jags who were 3-13 in 2016 are now going to go 12-4? Could happen. So could the Bucs making the playoffs this year. I believe!!
July 20th, 2018 at 10:32 am
If you are being objective, a prediction over 8 wins this year is tin hat territory. Rare when any 5 win NFL team turns it around on a dime. FA moves never produce big dividends we hope for so I think the DEF line moves will help us but maybe not as much as some hope. Atlanta OL is stout and Ryan-Jones is peaking. Our OL is untested and we have a rookie RB who I think will show some big talent but I worry he will get nicked up over 16 games. I still question the coaches on moving Marpet; they were wrong about him at center hence the Jensen move. Keep Licht out of the OL game plan room. I have little to no confidence in any DEF coach not named Buckner.
July 20th, 2018 at 10:33 am
As a bucs fan I am rooting for 11-5 and the playoffs. But what I would really love to see is the team just show up every game. And actually look like they are well prepared. We have always looked like the least prepared team in the league. So just show up every game and be competitive. Not let every player in the league have career games against us. And when we play the worse team in the league in pass coverage. Let’s throw for 400 yards instead of always having on of our worst days against some of the worst defenses. Show up every game give me something to cheer for every Sunday and I will be happy. Getting blown out by Arizona and Minnesota games like that can’t happen this year.
July 20th, 2018 at 10:35 am
Wow Joe, I’m not sure what to make of Nate Davis’ prediction. 5-11 really? I took a look at this year’s schedule a couple weeks ago and came up with a 10-6 prediction. Twice as many wins, half as many losses (and that was with going 2-3 in December).
My optimism (‘cautiously optimistic’ admittedly) comes from my belief that the Bucs will be a better all-around T-E-A-M this year. As Bucsfanman & Bonzai put it “we are bigger than ONE player”. One player’s ‘good’ stats don’t mean diddly if you go 5-11. The Bucs DESERVED to be in last place in 2017; I don’t buy into the “If this had happened or that had happened, we could’ve been 11-5 instead” argument. As the old saying goes … “If pigs had wings they could fly”.
Bucs are now poised for the biggest turnaround in the division (New Orleans won that honor last year because of their IMPROVED DEFENSE). Big picture stats can tell ya quite a bit I think:
o Saints: 11-5 … Points For: 448 … Points Against: 326 … Difference: +122
o Panthers: 11-5 … Points For: 363 … Points Against: 327 … Difference: +36
o Falcons: 10-6 … Points For: 353 … Points Against: 315 … Difference: +38
o Bucs: 5-11 … Points For: 335 … Points Against: 382 … Difference: -47
So the Bucs had the lowest scoring offense AND our defense allowed significantly more points against than any of the other defenses in the division. The MINUS 47 differential represents on average 3 pts/game for our 16 games.
But now look on the bright side. Bucs have made the most significant defensive upgrades of any NFC South team. That SHOULD translate into giving up at least 3 points LESS per game on average. Bucs offense had a couple upgrades itself (Jensen being added, Marpet moving to LG, RoJo being added, etc). That SHOULD translate into scoring at least 3 points MORE per game on average. IF those predictions are anyplace close, the MINUS 47 differential now changes to a PLUS 49 DIFFERENTIAL between Points Scored & Points Allowed for 2018. IF Bucs can be consistent in meeting those goals over the season, a 10-6 record is certainly achievable.
July 20th, 2018 at 10:37 am
chan
I respect your opinion…..
I think we have enough talent on paper to make it….
imo, if we don’t make the playoffs it wont be because of players and talent…..of the 4 HC’s in our division, where would you rank dirk?….I say dead last at 4th….and if we miss the playoffs it’ll be because we have the 4th best HC in our division….
like you, I hope im wrong…..
#NOEXCUSESIN2018!!!!!….#PRESSURESONTHECOACHES!!!!!….GO BUCS!!!!
July 20th, 2018 at 10:48 am
Anyone expecting more than 6-10 isn’t living in reality.
Have you not seen the schedule?
How can anyone believe this team is gonna be 8-8 9-7 10-6?
Unbelievable lmao.
July 20th, 2018 at 10:51 am
This is the absolute worst prediction I’ve ever seen just for having chargers in the Superbowl. They did us wrong but they did a lot of teams wrong in the NFC
So basically the bucs get Noah Spence back who was out for the season in addition to 4 defensive lineman not including drafting vea, an upgraded o line and running back position but we’re going to have the exact same record as last year? Absolutely stupid!!!
July 20th, 2018 at 10:56 am
Jameis suspension cost this team far more than just three games.
What would we have been talking about absent any of the Jameis conversation?
We would be jacked up heading into this seasons with all the defensive moves and the drafting of ROJO.
I agree with the guys who claim this is just another obstacle and if this team has the heart and character I believe it does they will overcome it. 10-6 should be doable.
As guys have pointed out…this season is going to be about our Defense..and our OL and ROJO and the running game.
Or as Tony in LA likes to point out..”the trenches”. On paper I think we’ve fixed the DL…OL looks a little shaky on the right side but their are some solutions.
Run the ball well…play defense and we can still win. After all it’s not like we haven’t utilized this formula before quite successfully.
July 20th, 2018 at 11:01 am
Jameis saved Joe.
And people wonder why he’s “America’s Quarterback.”
July 20th, 2018 at 11:02 am
Anybody can throw predictions and numbers out there and crap out.
July 20th, 2018 at 11:13 am
DR
I wouldnt say we made the most significant upgrades…..we for sure made the most upgrade but that’s not exactly a good thing having to over haul everything…..
no doubt we got better(on paper) but so did all 3 teams that made our division last year….
-falcons added some offensive weapons and some defensive help that was already good….
-panthers went mostly defense….they had 8picks and selected 2 offensive players….their defense will again be stout….
-saints added the 2nd best DE and also selected 2 CB’s back to back….
even with all of our upgrades, we’re still behind the 8ball when it comes to 1 critical area and that’s coaching…..I have dirk ranked 4th in our division as an HC….and he’s near the bottom when it comes to the entire NFC conference….
regardless of the talent, until we ditch the finesse style of play by dirk and smitty nothing will change imo…..
we’ll see…..
#NOEXCUSESIN2018!!!!!….#PRESSURESONTHECOACHES!!!!!….GO BUCS!!!!
July 20th, 2018 at 11:18 am
Bonzai. I see 9-7 realistically. The regime gets a mulligan and next year we go 10-6 or 11-5. But that depends on Jameis. He’s too unreliable for my taste.
July 20th, 2018 at 11:28 am
@813 – Oh I am most definitely including our coaching staff in my take about the “Team”. I have little faith in Koetter and less in Smith so that plays into my assessment. We literally should be hoping for significant(not horrific) injuries to star players on division foe teams to have a shot and that’s for a Wildcard as I have 0 faith in the ability of this team to win the division outright. And the 2018 Wildcard race will be INSANELY competitive as it always is. Sigh, I think we just don’t enough going for us, THIS YEAR.
July 20th, 2018 at 11:30 am
Ok Joe that was funny…but the truth is always the funniest as successful comedians discovered long ago.
July 20th, 2018 at 11:42 am
I think the Glazers will look at the whole body of work from JL and DK and others, plus all of the circumstances. Again, I woldn’t call it a “mulligan” as much as mitigating circumstances. I will predict this: we will see JW#3 gone before DK. They may both go at the same time, but I think it’s a better than average chance they’ll both be here in 2019, for more reason than one. I’d bet money on that. But also, I don’t think JW#3 will be in the same role (i.e., not face of the franchise, and perhaps not even the team captain this year). They will make him earn it back, and I don’t see a $100M+ deal coming for him either.
July 20th, 2018 at 11:47 am
DR
always respect your takes…
I can’t get past the feeling that while we did make some improvements, that what we really did was upgrade from really terrible to a little better. Not sure it will be near enough but it is a start, I suppose.
I mean it’s not like we brought in Demarcus Lawrence, Aaron Donald and the like. I’d say I’m cautiosly optimistic, but really just cautious in general.
July 20th, 2018 at 11:48 am
Looking at:
Joe Says:
July 20th, 2018 at 11:01 am
What would we have been talking about absent any of the Jameis conversation?
Jameis saved Joe.
And people wonder why he’s “America’s Quarterback.”
——————
Really. Don’t agree. I would have loved to have no issues knawing at us…would have been great to be able to talk about small stuff. Winston reinserting himself as the national debacle with his serious problematic behavior and deceit would have been nice to avoid. But it IS the topic when the Bucs come up anywhere.
That is not America’s “anything” I am sorry to say.
July 20th, 2018 at 12:15 pm
Wow what a shocker they picked everyone who was good last year to be good this year! Man way to go out on a limb there guys and I just wonder where this same outfit had the Jags, Philly and the Rams finishing up last year. People simply don’t do their research making their predictions. How can anyone who knows anything about football think this defense will be as bad as it was last year when we have added 5 defensive lineman 3 in which have won SuperBowls and one is pure freak of nature? Will we be a top 10 defense with the youth in the secondary, probably not, but all we need to do it not be the worst defense in the league to improve. In addition having any running game would help the defense and with Jensen at C, Marpet at G and Beneoich at RG our run game should be improved, again elite probably not, but all we have to do is be better than 26th in the league to improve to average. Lastly if we just improve to have an average kicking game we will be greatly improved in that area. We have made a strong effort to improve each of those areas so to say none of the 3 are going to be improved at all just doesn’t seem realistic.
July 20th, 2018 at 12:55 pm
Now if our QB would stop giving the other team the ball, we’ll be good. 19 turnovers from our QB alone last year… the defense did it’s job, averaged the same number of points as the #3 defense last year. Say what you want, but when the D is on the field all day long because our slow starting, fumbling/interception ridden QB (look at the box scores), not much will change. Never liked Winston, may never like him… but that doesn’t keep me from wanting my team to win.
July 20th, 2018 at 1:08 pm
Roy
Well one thing is clear. If you go back you will see the Jameis controversy threads drew the largest number of posts by far.
As for America’s QB….time for us to get a sense of humor….its like Mary with the Ben Stiller character….”Just effin with you”.
I don’t want to hack off the guys who get upset at the “America’s QB” but sorry I gotta smile when Joe tosses it out there and somebody takes the bait.
July 20th, 2018 at 1:21 pm
chan
i’ll agree with that…..we both have little to no faith in dirk and smitty…..even tho I hope wish and pray we make it to the dance, I highly doubt it with this staff….
#NOEXCUSESIN2018!!!!!….#PRESSURESONTHECOACHES!!!!!….GO BUCS!!!!
July 20th, 2018 at 1:36 pm
ndog- Yea, I agree. To add to that is the strength of schedule moniker. SOS is completely based on past success, a.k.a. PAST rosters and past coaches.
Pittsburgh, for instance, everyone has the Bucs losing BIGLY (couldn’t resist!) because they have Ben, AB, LB and on and on. Yes, they have those stud players. But, will they all be healthy? Ben hasn’t played a full season in years. Will our defense shut them down and force others to contribute? What about their NEW offensive coordinator?
Last year’s success is NOT a guarantee of success THIS year! The SOS argument is BS, IMO. Simply put, you play and beat the team in front of you. You can’t control what happens week to week, let alone play to play. All it takes is one play to change an entire game.
If we go into this season with the mindset that “we have the toughest 1st three games,” guess what, it becomes a self-fulfilled prophecy. If we go into the season saying,” we’re going to beat New Orleans” well hmmmm. Maybe we beat N.O. Then Philly. Then we set our sights on the Steelers. It’s cliche, but it CAN be done.
July 20th, 2018 at 2:08 pm
813bucboi said
“I’m a Bucs fan and I EXPECT to go to the playoffs. If you’re a fan this is what you SHOULD expect.”
CHEERS, man. — Very damn well said.
“Tampa………………” ~~~~~~~~~ “Bay…………………”
July 20th, 2018 at 2:27 pm
Stange how no team is expected to go 8-8 and only two teams are picked 9-7.
July 20th, 2018 at 3:50 pm
To quote the great Mr. T, “I predict pain!”
July 20th, 2018 at 4:03 pm
@SPBF…oh yeah, I’m all about joking about Joe’s coined name for the local disgrace and national debacle…that doesn’t bother me. I get Joe does it and why.
But for those unknowing, it can certainly make the user of the term look foolish to them…and with a lack of fundamental common decency. No one can call Winston America’s QB with a straight face.
July 20th, 2018 at 9:48 pm
Glad to see expectations lowered from this time last year. However I do not see the Bucs being 5-11 again. I think 7-9 realistially 9-7 at best but still no playoff spot and a MAJOR housecleaning! Then back to square zero…
July 20th, 2018 at 9:50 pm
Glad to see expectations lowered from this time last year. However I do not see the Bucs being 5-11 again. I think 7-9 realistially 9-7 at best but still no playoff spot and a MAJOR housecleaning! Then back to square zero…
July 20th, 2018 at 9:55 pm
Realistically
July 20th, 2018 at 10:34 pm
donuts Says
“If you are being objective, a prediction over 8 wins this year is tin hat territory. Rare when any 5 win NFL team turns it around on a dime.”
You are forgetting that we had a winning record the year before, and that the team has vastly improved since last year.
Not to mention, if you look at Jon Gruden’s years in Tampa, he did just what you claim won’t happen. That’s where the last to first phrase started.
July 21st, 2018 at 1:15 pm
Here’s what they said last year:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-6): They seem poised to make their first playoff appearance in a decade after diversifying a lopsided offense with WR DeSean Jackson and rookie TE O.J. Howard. RB Doug Martin is apparently recharged, too, though he remains suspended for three games. They’ll see Falcons twice and Packers once during Weeks 12-15.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/2017/07/24/nfl-record-projections-predictions-patriots-cowboys-raiders-steelers/500328001/
July 21st, 2018 at 9:32 pm
Because of the additions on defense and a strong nucleus of offensive weapons I think the Bucs will win some close games and will end up being 8-8 and everybody will be safe