Countdown: Top 10 X-factors For 2018 – No. 8
July 17th, 2018
Lotta carrots on Jason Licht’s buffet
The march to No. 1 continues! It’s Joe’s daily countdown look at the top 10 X-factors for your 2018 Buccaneers season.
Joe is fired up! Training camp is just nine short days away.
No. 8 – Contract Years
Remember 12 months ago when general manager Jason Licht said Doug Martin might be one of those guys who “needs a carrot” in front of him to perform at his best? That was one giant vomit-inducing moment from Joe.
Regardless, there are “carrot” players in the NFL. It’s human reality; the lure of massive cash can lead men to do extraordinary things — good and bad.
That’s why Joe has a very sharp eye this season on Ali Marpet, Donovan Smith, Kwon Alexander and Peyton Barber.
Marpet and Smith, 2015 second-round picks, are looking at $11 million to $15 million each, respectively, next season if they perform well and stay healthy. Alexander is one good season away from $10 million annually, and if Peyton Barber is strong as a No. 1 running back, he’s sure to score a restricted free agent tender of at least $3 million, which represents a massive raise.
Joe believes those contract years will be massive factors for Smith and Marpet, who will play next to each other on the left side of the offensive line, and room together in training camp. In fact, Marpet and Smith already referenced “turning passion to a paycheck” while prepping for this season.
Joe thinks Alexander and Barber are less-driven by money than Smith and Marpet.
Those won’t be the only Bucs will massive money on the line. Obscenely wealthy veterans like DeSean Jackson, Gerald McCoy join other defensive linemen, all of whom have no guaranteed money for 2019.
No. 9 – Ryan Fitzpatrick
No. 10 – Noah Spence
And just in case you missed Saturday’s series introduction, here are four guys you won’t see on The Countdown and why.
July 17th, 2018 at 12:33 pm
Yes, contract years can give players intense focus. I am more concerned about the right side of the line. It seems to me that is a major area of concern.
July 17th, 2018 at 12:41 pm
I certainly do not disagree with the thrust of Joe’s point here.
I think Barber is the only one who needs to worry about his next contract.
He’s a UFDA and has made less in two years than either Smith or Marpet received in just their signing bonuses. And he still has a lot left to prove. The other two have made their bones already as NFL starters.
Smith has already been paid over 4 million and after this year that will be more than six million dollars.
Marpet has already earned a whisker less than three million and will be paid right at 4 million when this year is over.
I understand many more MILLIONS are on the line…but let’s be honest…if someone pays you 4 million you should be set for life unless you’re a financial moron or get taken advantage of by bad advisors or too many hot women and fast cars.
It’s America and everybody is entitled to make as much as they can. But in America we are also entitled to our opinions and at some point the word GREED should surface here. No I would not turn down the money or not think about it…but not as much as I would succeeding with my first love football!!!
Cyndi Lauper had a great hit in the 80’s “Money Changes Everything”.
Indeed it does.
And another Man/God weighed in frequently on money or mammon.
Matthew 6:24
“No one can serve two masters. Either you will hate the one and love the other, or you will be devoted to the one and despise the other. You cannot serve both God and money.”
I like all of these guys and if they do well the Bucs benefit so I’ll be glad to see them earn more. But I could give a rat’s arse about their personal financial situation since they are already wealthier than 99% of their fellow Americans.
And no I’m not simply jealous. I have been blessed…not in the wealthy category but at least more than enough to satisfy my needs. If I were to be jealous of these guys it’s because they have been blessed physically and get to play an exciting game every Sunday.
July 17th, 2018 at 12:41 pm
I certainly do not disagree with the thrust of Joe’s point here.
I think Barber is the only one who needs to worry about his next contract.
He’s a UFDA and has made less in two years than either Smith or Marpet received in just their signing bonuses. And he still has a lot left to prove. The other two have made their bones already as NFL starters.
Smith has already been paid over 4 million and after this year that will be more than six million dollars.
Marpet has already earned a whisker less than three million and will be paid right at 4 million when this year is over.
I understand many more MILLIONS are on the line…but let’s be honest…if someone pays you 4 million you should be set for life unless you’re a financial moron or get taken advantage of by bad advisors or too many hot women and fast cars.
It’s America and everybody is entitled to make as much as they can. But in America we are also entitled to our opinions and at some point the word GREED should surface here. No I would not turn down the money or not think about it…but not as much as I would succeeding with my first love football!!!
Cyndi Lauper had a great hit in the 80’s “Money Changes Everything”.
Indeed it does.
And another Man/God weighed in frequently on money or mammon.
Matthew 6:24
“No one can serve two masters. Either you will hate the one and love the other, or you will be devoted to the one and despise the other. You cannot serve both God and money.”
I like all of these guys and if they do well the Bucs benefit so I’ll be glad to see them earn more. But I could give a rat’s arse about their personal financial situation since they are already wealthier than 99% of their fellow Americans.
And no I’m not simply jealous. I have been blessed…not in the wealthy category but at least more than enough to satisfy my needs. If I were to be jealous of these guys it’s because they have been blessed physically and get to play an exciting game every Sunday.
July 17th, 2018 at 1:34 pm
I’m not worried about Contract Year, he always comes motivated and ready to play.
July 17th, 2018 at 2:16 pm
Usually contract years mean better production. Nothing would please me more than to have Peyton Barber rush for a 1,000 yards behind Marpet and Smith while Kwon amasses 100+ tackles.
July 17th, 2018 at 2:23 pm
I think Peyton will only rush for 500 yards, but RoJo will have over 1,000…
July 17th, 2018 at 2:24 pm
Franchise don smith. It’s a tool for a reason. He’s a carrot guy.
July 17th, 2018 at 3:30 pm
“Marpet and Smith, 2015 second-round picks, are looking at $11 million to $15 million each, respectively, next season if they perform well and stay healthy”
Only 12 NFL LTs make 10M+ per year. Donovan Smith is NOT a top 12 NFL LT!
Only 3 LGs make more than $7M – Ali Marpet MIGHT be a top 3 LG but he’s going to have to prove it this year.
Your figures are JUST a bit high there Joe… Really? Might want to revisit your data. –Joe
July 17th, 2018 at 3:51 pm
That carrot talk was worse than eating Ws
July 17th, 2018 at 7:28 pm
Jason Licht has a giant dilemma on his hands when this season ends Joe (maybe ‘conundrum’ is a more appropriate term here). More than likely you’ve got Jameis in line to make $21 mil (an increase of almost $17 mil). Donovan Smith & Ali Marpet maybe $26 mil together (an increase of almost $25 mil). Kwon Alexander maybe $10 mil (an increase of over $9 mil). LVD will be making $1 mil more in 2019, as will GMC. Unrein will be making almost $2 mil more too. That’s over $50 mil INCREASE right there if Licht re-signs them all.
In addition, Conte, Fitz, Humphries, Rodgers, Lynch, Taylor, Robinson (and a few others) will be free agents, meaning we either pay them or replace them (potentially with someone more expensive). That MIGHT be even more outlay, although I wouldn’t be surprised to see their total salary number stay about where it is.
Surely the CAP will go up again next year, but not $50 mil worth (or even close). Bucs will need to make some hard choices. Personally think that 3 particular Bucs will be scrutinized VERY closely because of their age-salary combination: (1) DJax; (2) GMC; and (3) LVD.
Given that we don’t have much CAP space left right now,
July 17th, 2018 at 7:31 pm
Great piece, Joe!
I wonder if Monken’s promotion makes the list? I hope Monken is the dog mentality, toughening up the offense, and Koetter is more free to be creative and call plays.
I have to believe our defensive line will be better, thus making the secondary’s job more manageable. We are due for improvement.
What about Vita Vea? Imagine if he comes out absolutely wrecking sh!t? Wow. A lot to be excited about this year.
I believe Jameis comes back strong this year. We’ve seen his capabilities when locked in, this suspension may very well be his biggest reality check. If he’s going to get a second contract then he needs to ball out this year and keep us in the playoff hunt.
July 18th, 2018 at 12:31 am
“Might want to revisit your data. –Joe”
My “data” is correct Joe. Selective but correct. There are quite a few RGs that make more than that but only 3 LGs currently make more than $7M. Look it up – then come back and admit I was right.
Your estimates are high and these guys new contracts will bear that out. Marpet will top out at an average of $10M per and likely less. Smith MAY get more than $10M per year average but if so – not by much. Neither will get anywhere near your high # of $15M per year.