Winning Formulas Are There — Pick One
July 25th, 2018
BY IRA KAUFMAN
Unbridled optimism abounds across NFL outposts this time of year as players report to training camp.
Every team enters the new season with a blank record — except here in Tampa, where the Bucs are apparently 0-3. If you’ve been listening to national pundits and local talk radio, it seems almost everyone weighing in already has the Bucs stumbling out of the gate.
Except for the Stick Carriers and a loyal core of supporters, an overwhelming sense of gloom hangs over One Buc Place as veterans return. What’s next, the Buc flag flying at half-mast?
Some Tampa Bay fans are hoping for a 7-9 finish, perhaps even 8-8.
Shame on you people.
Do you think San Francisco fans are sitting on their garoppolos, pining for a .500 record? In the Windy City, Chicago supporters are geeked, expecting big things from Mitch Trubisky. Nothing less than a division title will satisfy Raider fans giddy about Jon Gruden’s return to the Black Hole.
Yes, the early slate appears treacherous and Jameis Winston won’t be available until Week 4, but the Bucs plan on being one of those surprise teams that pop up every NFL season.
And I’ve got the game plan to do it.
Pound & Protect
First, win the turnover war. Everybody talks about it for a reason. Of the bottom 13 teams last year in turnover differential, only Tennessee (9-7) posted a winning record. Nine of the top 14 in that category secured a playoff berth.
Closer to home, the Bucs are 19-8 in the past five seasons when emerging with a positive turnover margin. When they are even or in the minus column, the Bucs are 7-46 since 2013.
See a pattern?
Along those lines, throw the football less often.
Winston has averaged 34 pass attempts per game since joining Tampa Bay, and that’s about five throws too many. He’s not Tom Brady or Drew Brees. If Dirk Koetter can ramp up the ground game after a two-year hiatus, Winston can pass less often while enjoying more efficiency.
Besides, you can be a winning team without stellar quarterback play.
Just ask the Jaguars — or the Ravens. Baltimore went 9-7 last year, even with Joe Flacco’s weekly struggles. Despite not featuring a 1,000-yard rusher or an 800-yard receiver, the Ravens were in line for a playoff spot until choking against the Bengals in the season finale.
How did they do it? Glad you asked.
Ranking No. 1 in turnover margin (plus-17) certainly helped. Special teams were outstanding as the Ravens scored eight touchdowns off returns — going the distance on three interceptions, three fumble recoveries, one punt and one kickoff.
Baltimore also posted 41 sacks while allowing only 27, overcoming a really down year for Flacco, whose average of 5.72 yards per pass attempt ranked last among the NFL’s 32 rated quarterbacks.
Dead last.
Team Game
All this data is my way of saying the success of the 2018 Bucs goes far beyond the play of Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick. If this pass rush is legit and Ronald Jones is the real deal, the Bucs should shock their many skeptics.
Pete Prisco has Tampa Bay winning six games. Colin Cowherd has the Bucs 3-13. Las Vegas figures they’ll finish with six or seven wins. USA Today is predicting 5-11 and Sports Illustrated chimes in at 2-13-1.
There hasn’t been this much gloom and doom infecting One Buc Place since MRSA arrived in 2013.
Players and coaches now have an opportunity to shake up the world.
Expectations are low and stakes are high. Confidence, precision and hustle can take you a long way in sports and the 2018 Bucs are about to write their story.
If you’ve relegated them to an 0-3 start, don’t bother reading.
Now in his 40th year covering the NFL , Ira Kaufman is the most revered sports personality and writer in the Tampa Bay area. He scored a full-time seat at JoeBucsFan.com world headquarters in July of 2016. Tampa Bay’s only Pro Football Hall of Fame voter, Ira busts out columns here every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, and his award winning podcasts fire Tuesdays and Thursdays. You can also hear Ira on SiriusXM Mad Dog Radio Wednesdays at 5 p.m. during football season. Also a TV start, see Ira now on Mondays at 10:30 p.m. on Spectrum Sports 360 (aka BayNews 9). Ira also is part of the FOX-13 Tailgate Sunday NFL show and enjoys beet salads, Riesling, Chiefs victories and needling Joe.
July 25th, 2018 at 9:42 am
Ira, it doesn’t mean anything to these people that we had a huge draft haul, JPP, Ryan Jensen, Vinny Curry, Beau Allen, Vita-freakin Vea?! We know our history around here but this is a team made up of very different people than last year – and that’s for a reason.
July 25th, 2018 at 10:05 am
This is our year. 12-4. Defense is going to be tough!!!
July 25th, 2018 at 10:06 am
Ira you are a genius. I seldom get in theses team/fan psychology analysis but you hit the nail on the head IMO. Teams like SF, Cleveland, Chicago, Jets ect. with huge fan bases get down when they lose and don’t make the playoffs. They go home in December pissed off in search of a good hockey or basketball game. But in July you can’t convince them that they are not going to the Super Bowl. Buc’s fans go home pissed in December and come back pissed in July predicting a losing season and blaming players, coaches, and management for loses before the season starts. No wonder FA’s come to Tampa just for the money. If the truth be known most of our draft picks are pissed when the commissioner announces “Tampa Bay.” We need a big dose of “Fan Adjustment,” in this town.
July 25th, 2018 at 10:06 am
Well said Ira.
I would much rather fly under the radar though than be featured on Hard Knocks and everyone clamoring for the Playoffs.
Pundits from last year are just disappointed that their predictions were way off.
Problem is they really weren’t WAY off. A very small sample of things going wrong derailed the season.
I really truly think we will be beneficiaries of a shock treatment from the Bucs this year.
Rojo runs left outside; Rojo runs right outside; Rojo up the middle for 75 yards.
BRING IT!!!
July 25th, 2018 at 10:14 am
I want what your smoking in your pipe Reality_43Says: 7-9 and thats only if all the stars align up in the milky way. So it was said so it is written.
July 25th, 2018 at 10:20 am
good article sage…..
I like the fact that you pointed out the keys to success are a run game, stout defense and good special teams play…..
unfortunately, we all know dirk abandons the run early and often and loves to throw the ball…..smitty is a lousy DC that lacks creativity and adjustments….and we have possibly the worse special teams coach in the league….I don’t see how he was retained…..the only good thing about the special teams was the punter…..
#NOEXCUSESIN2018!!!!!….#PRESSURESONTHECOACHES!!!!….GO BUCS!!!!
July 25th, 2018 at 10:46 am
If the current occupants at OBP are aware of a winning formula they have done a very good job of hiding it.
Not like these folks just showed up, we have a pretty good sampling of their work. Mediocre would be a kind assessment.
But, a turnaround is not impossible. Ask Dungy.
July 25th, 2018 at 10:49 am
Pretty much agree with everything…..The turnovers has been the biggest liability on this team since Dk is the coach….second VERY poor kickers….If you get better on those two areas this team will show a LOT of progress on there winning records, I am sure about that……This time I think we have a much more talented team than the last 3 or 4 years…..I beg JPP, Beau Allen, Curry and the other additions play hard and don’t remind us on the Ghost johnsosns, the Bakers or the TJ wards around!!!!!!
I also love to be perceived as a poor team, as a losing team by the national media, really love it……….Most of them are irrelevant , and stupid and irresponsable words come out of there mouth just because they have to say something……Love it
July 25th, 2018 at 10:50 am
Fitpatrick won games for us when he started last year, so I don’t think they will go 0-3 just because Winston is suspended. the Bucs are going to be improved on defense and should continue to get better on offense as well, so they certainly will shock some people who have such low expectations for them.
July 25th, 2018 at 10:52 am
Yet another really nice and well written piece Ira.
IMO – the degrees to which the OLine and DLine are improved will determine how well this 2018 team can be.
Aside question Ira – why are you crediting the Ravens’ Special Teams with 8 TDs when 3 were INTs and 3 were fumble returns. Wouldn’t that be 6 for the defense and 2 for special teams?
July 25th, 2018 at 10:52 am
@Buctooth
It’s real easy to agree with the majority isn’t it?
You have NO idea what this team will look like and neither do I, but I CAN say that fixing the D Line is what has been needed for a LONG LONG time therefore I have reason for optimism.
N.O. without Ingram; Philly might not have Wentz and Foles could look terrible.
But just keep on bitching and see where that gets you.
July 25th, 2018 at 10:57 am
Most glaring issue is shaking off the losing culture/mentality.
And stop punting in opponents territories
July 25th, 2018 at 11:18 am
“the success of the 2018 Bucs goes far beyond the play of Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick”
100% agree.
We had a top passing offense last year. That wasn’t the problem at all.
No run game. No pass rush / no secondary / no defense in general. Worst FG kicking situation in the league.
The above = why we went 5-11. The QBs moved the ball up and down the field last year but we couldn’t punch it in or convert enough FGs. (I.e. Run Game / Kicker / some bad Red Zone execution). Or we secured leads late in the 4th only to see the defense and the lack of pass rush give up the go-ahead scores late (Bills, Packers, Panthers).
Kind of crazy with how bad the overall defense and run game were along with an injured QB; that we still were 3 defensive stops and a made FG away from a winning record.
July 25th, 2018 at 11:27 am
Was curious so I just looked up Fitz’s career stats in the 1st 3 games as a starter to see how he tends to start a year.
Ryan Fitzpatrick as a starter 1st 3 games
2011 – 3-0 Buffalo Bills
2012 – 2-1 Buffalo Bills
2013 – Didn’t start 1st 3
2014 – 2-1 Houston Texans
2015 – 2-1 New York Jets
2016 is the only year he started 1-2 and the Jets were absolutely terrible that year. A declining Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker for WRs. ASJ for the Tight End.
All I’m saying is it doesn’t look as bad as people are making it out to be, and Fitz might be just the man to start our season off right!
July 25th, 2018 at 11:28 am
The Stickcarriers you speak of may be blinded by the screaming, jason licht has mismanaged this team since he got here, I think he addressed some areas of need like the DL, but i mean the entire right side of the OL is a HUUUGE question mark as well as the RB position, 6-10/7-9, bigger question is when belechik is the new HC in 2019 the stick carriers need a new schtick
July 25th, 2018 at 11:36 am
I’ve frequently mentioned that playoff teams and especially those that win titles have players who enjoy a “career year”.
That obviously would great for the Bucs as well but we don’t even need “career years” out of many of our players to win ten and reach the playoffs.
We need to OL to ALL have good years if not career seasons.
The D line is the same…JPP just has to be the average of all his past NFL seasons…he doesn’t need to have a “career year”. Same for GMC…although of all our players I would expect GMC if healthy to truly have a career year…he’s finally surrounded by talent…a healthy Spence will make a big difference.
We need some rookies to come through as well…notably ROJO of course and at least one of our top draft pick DB’s has to emerge as the real deal.
Then we use Ira’s formula and it’s all good…no matter WHO plays QB.
July 25th, 2018 at 11:38 am
Ira says: “There hasn’t been this much gloom and doom infecting One Buc Place since MRSA arrived in 2013.”
Couldn’t agree more, that season was a mess with the MRSA and the Freeman collapse and other shenanigans that went on. I never thought we would have as much distraction and gloom as that season, will the Bucs never cease to amaze me? Hopefully this year will be on the uptick and a different kind of amazement, only way from the bottom is up!
July 25th, 2018 at 11:40 am
“Some Tampa Bay fans are hoping for a 7-9 finish, perhaps even 8-8.
Shame on you people”
Optimism usually leads to disappointment with this team.
July 25th, 2018 at 11:53 am
In years past, I always…ALWAYS…waited to make by season prediction until the final roster was known or in Joe’s prediction thread.
Why? Because I had to wait to see how good the players who made the roster really were.
This year is different.
Ira, here’s a prediction for you: 11-5.
I know you’ll like that. What people here are falling short on is forming their own unbiased predictions based on this off season.
If Jameis had not been accused and suspended, how would they have felt about the state of this team?
They would, for the most part, be excited about this season, and I dare say many would be hopeful of a superbowl. Now let’s pretend they had a crystal ball and knew in advance that Jameis would be injured three games throughout the season, meaning Fitz would start. How would their expectations change then?
Still possible to make the playoffs.
The reason Jameis is not playing does not affect the record. Period.
This is a team. Not a single player. Massive improvements has been made in all positions of need. How can this team not be twice as good? Twice as good would be 10-6. People should at least hope for that much.
But I believe the Bucs will go 11-5 and reach the NFC playoff game, maybe even the Superbowl.
July 25th, 2018 at 11:56 am
10 – 6.
#Get after it!
July 25th, 2018 at 12:02 pm
Reality_43 Says
“Problem is they really weren’t WAY off. A very small sample of things going wrong derailed the season.”
Buctooth Says
“I want what your smoking in your pipe Reality_43”
Here’s the thing…Reality is right.
The facts support it:
Jameis led the offense to take the lead late in 4 games, only to have the defense blow the game at the end. That’s 4 games we should have won…making us 9-7.
Nick Folk, the kicker, cost us 2 of his 4 games played by missing kicks. Add that to the 9-7, and it makes us 11-5 last year.
We were one circumstance from being a winning team, and two circumstances from a possible superbowl run.
Those are the absolute, unbiased, unopinionated facts. There is no point in denying it, because the numbers completely back it up.
And this year, that defense has been massively addressed with good players and great draft picks.
So, whatever you are smoking? It’s killing brain cells.
July 25th, 2018 at 12:15 pm
IRA, I agree with your points on what it takes to win in this league. I am a skeptic only because the BUCS just don’t win. They have added a few nice pieces the past couple of years and I think they hit a home run this offseason with the draft and free agency. I want to believe that it will be all puppies and roses but until I see it on the field and the win/loss column I wont believe it. Also when you throw in our coaches it doesn’t make me all warm and fuzzy. Please pass me that joint you are smoking!!!
July 25th, 2018 at 12:19 pm
Duthsty Rhothdes Says:
“The Stickcarriers you speak of may be blinded by the screaming, jason licht has mismanaged this team since he got here, I think he addressed some areas of need like the DL, but i mean the entire right side of the OL is a HUUUGE question mark as well as the RB position…”
I don’t know why I’m bothering, but he did address the RB position, and so far as the OL, it’s only a question mark because we don’t know if it will be good or bad yet…but he did address it.
Caleb Benenoch has stuck around for a reason, you know. He;s the new starter at RG.
And so far as RT, Dotson is solid when healthy, and they DID draft a Tackle who is a beast…Alex Cappa. People are saying he’ll play guard, but that’s only because that’s where fans perceive the need. But when Dotson gets injured (and he will), Cappa will step in and prove he is the right man for the job.
July 25th, 2018 at 12:20 pm
And with Beckwith injured, it looks like Bully will finally get some playing time!
July 25th, 2018 at 12:23 pm
@Ira … “If you’ve relegated them to an 0-3 start, don’t bother reading.” Great article Ira, but wasn’t making that ‘warning’ the LAST LINE kinda fruitless (If pessimists had already read to the last line, the ‘warning’ kinda came a little late maybe?).
Agree 100% with your winning formula: (1) Win the turnover battle; (2) Pass less, run more; (3) Play great defense; and (4) Have exceptional special teams. I suspect that’s what the Bucs’ coaches have tried to accomplish every year (albeit unsuccessfully). I’d also add a 5th factor in there: Control the clock (i.e., win the time-of-possession battle). Bucs were #19 in TOP last year at 29:43 per game average. Eagles were #1 in TOP at 32:48 per game, so they basically held the ball 3 mins longer per game than we did (more time wearing down the opponents’ defense, less time your own defense has to be on the field, etc).
What’s interesting is that Philly had 66.9 offensive plays per game (2017) to our 64.7 offensive plays per game. All it took was 2.5 more offensive plays per game to average over 3 mins more per game. Running the ball more … and more effectively … is the key IMO to controlling the clock.
July 25th, 2018 at 12:23 pm
@BucfanBF
Just what makes the coaches so bad?
I mean, okay, I can understand Mike Smith being looked poorly upon, especially since his defense cost us a winning season last year. But then again, what has he had to work with?
By the same token, Koetter coached the team well enough to win the last two seasons. 9-7 in 2016. 5-11 last year, but if the defense had kept the lead, Koetters offense would have had us at 9-7 or better again.
So tell me…how exactly are these coaches so bad?
July 25th, 2018 at 12:27 pm
Bucs predicted to go 0-3 in first 3 games (Saints, Eagles & Steelers)
well what about our NFC South foes and their schedule
Falcons first three (Eagles, Panthers & Saints)
Panthers (Cowboys, Falcons & Bungles)
Saints (Bucs, Browns & Falcons)
Since everyone is predicting
Bucs go 2-1
Falcons go 0-3
Panthers go 3-0
Saints go 2-1
mark the tape. Who has more to play for
July 25th, 2018 at 12:28 pm
Let me put it this way…in 2016, the team was good enough to go 9-7. A winning season. That means the offense was good enough. That means the defense was good enough too.
Fans were concerned enough at the end of 2016 that they worried Mike Smith would be hired away. Suddenly, because of a bad year filled with injuries, no bye, and the defense mostly ignored or poorly addressed again in the off season, he became a bad defensive coach?
I don’t buy it. I think in 2016 he was good enough to squeeze good games out of players, but then some of those players were cast aside and he had less to work with. He may have squeezed blood out of a turnip in 2016, but he would have had to be a miracle worker to do it with what he had in 2017.
Now he has the weapons he should have had all along. great free agents, which are not long term solutions, but good enough to carry the team through 2-3 years or good defensive drafts.
July 25th, 2018 at 12:29 pm
I predict the Bucs go 1-2 or better the first 3 games…and the game they win will be the first one.
July 25th, 2018 at 12:30 pm
Some Tampa Bay fans are hoping for a 7-9 finish, perhaps even 8-8.
Shame on you people.
Shame on em for hoping at all.
July 25th, 2018 at 12:31 pm
And yes, I know that means Jameis will lose only 3 games in order to reach 11-5.
Faith…it is the substance of things HOPED for…and the evidence of things unseen.
July 25th, 2018 at 12:41 pm
Buccaneer Bonzai
I will do my best to answer your question:
I understand that Mike Smith didn’t have much to work with on the DL and the secondary so my disappointment isn’t totally on him but mainly on Koetter. I don’t like his play calling at times and his clock management is spotty at best. His determination to keep giving the ball to Doug Martin was ridiculous to me. He had a young and determined Barber who ran well when give the chance on the bench. Now maybe Koetter didn’t trust his pass blocking as much as Doug but Doug wasn’t a threat last year to break a long run and his pass blocking was questionable to me as well. I’m not down on the coaches because outside of WR and the TE group the offense wasn’t loaded with talent and particularly not loaded on the OL.
The defense with the exception of our LB’s just sucked!!
I like the additions Licht has added including last years draft. If Fitz can win at least one of the first three games and Jameis comes back and plays mostly turnover free football and with a improved running game I can see this team at 9-7 or better. Been a fan since their inception and maybe all of the losses have taken its toll on me.
Go Bucs!!!!
July 25th, 2018 at 12:46 pm
@Bonzai … “Those are the absolute, unbiased, unopinionated facts.” Uhhh, no not really Bonzai … your use of ‘selective’ facts is actually quite biased (OK, and opinionated too). The old saying “If pigs had wings they could fly” holds true in your example.
If circumstances are changed in a game (for whatever reason) there’s no way to know how that would affect the outcome (unless potentially the change occurs on the very lst play of the game with time expiring). Use Folk’s kicking as an example. Had he made his 3 FG attempts in the Pats game (instead of NONE), we MIGHT HAVE won 23-20 instead of losing 19-14. But you could just as easily say that IF the Bucs had been able to score in the 4th qtr when they had a 1st-and-goal at the NE 9-yd-line with 5:59 left in the 4th qtr (instead of ‘settling’ for a missed FG) then the final score would’ve been 21-19 and we’d have won. IF – IF – IF … meaningless. The only FACTS that count in that game is that (10 The Bucs’ OFFENSE scored 14 pts in that game (7 pts LESS than their average); (2) The Bucs’ DEFENSE gave up 19 pts in that game (5 LESS than their average); and most importantly (3) the Bucs LOST that game 19-14.
July 25th, 2018 at 1:08 pm
Bonzai man that pink stick carrier do rag you got on takes the oxygen out of your brain, im glad your an optomistic fan, but i have seen this crap for too long until they put a few positive games/seasons together i will be a drain instead of a fountain
July 25th, 2018 at 2:15 pm
“Pound and protect”! It’s almost as if Ira has been following Fanman’s running diatribe!!! 🙂
“Throw the ball less”! Amen Ira. There’s too much reliance on Jameis arm. He does have the skills, no doubt. But, he is also reckless at times. A more balanced offense, coupled with improved defensive play should get us to the playoffs, IMO.
July 25th, 2018 at 4:15 pm
10-6
July 25th, 2018 at 6:23 pm
I can’t stand the fact that you guys don’t even know how to assess the team and just bitch and moan. This team has improved the d-line dramatically. That hot garbage they were throwing out there last year on the d line was getting absolutely no pressure. That has been improved and it will improve every other facet of the defense. You fools can’t even see it though. I want the Bucs to win this year and I believe they will be good, I almost wish they wouldn’t so that you negative morons would deprived any joy of watching them succeed.
July 25th, 2018 at 7:56 pm
Well said Ira. Freaking “LOUSY” nay Sayers are obviously NOT fans!
July 25th, 2018 at 10:36 pm
I said above that it’s great for teams to have players who have career years.
Sadly the reverse is also true. When multiple players/coaches have bad years because of injury, poor play, bad decisions it’s a recipe for real disaster.
Can you say 2017 Bucs. It’s amusing watching guys here blast coaches, players, owners, many folks for last year’s horror show. But it’s not one guy. It was a large group of guys who had injury filled or simply poorly played or coached seasons.
Last year’s failure was truly a TEAM effort. But I’m the optimist and I take from that what many have already posted. What are the odds ALL of these professionals will suck two years in a row? Add the new guys and we should be a lot better.
July 25th, 2018 at 11:29 pm
Well said St. Pete. “It certainly takes a “TEAM”. The greatest “TEAN” sport ever invented.
And what the h3ll’s wrong with seeing a chance and having positive perspective. We definitely have a chance with quit possibly the strongest and most balanced team we have ever had. Both sides of the line of scrimmage is exactly what I mean. I believe it true. Sure, maybe we crash and burn.. “But maybe not” Not this time.
It’s just a gut feeling but it feels more right than it has in a long. I should know because I’ve either felt like I needed to throw up with a distinct sickly feeling deep down after being squished game after game and season after season
“GREEN” is the color I felt. And I don’t mean the color of money. More as said above, either sick to my stomach or “GREEN” with envy.
So I’ve suffered and I know like the rest.
But this time it feels different. I DO feel like the building through the draft is about to FINALLY pay off big time. Licht may be the best GM we’ve ever had as well. HE HAS MADE SOME DUMB MOVES! But…. He has also been quit brilliant. I’m sorry to say for some but that’s getting harder to deny.
And once and for all he has put it “damn near” all together via free agency and some very slick maneuvering.
We are as good as any of them.
Bottomline, it’s now up to the coaches and in my HOPES they WILL NOT let that dumpster fire happen again. And I don’t think they’re going to. I believe we can “FIST FIGHT” with the best of them. And I’mgoing with my gut and the simple math.
I’m calling it 10-6 with a playoff berth
“RIDE OR DIE” GO BUCS!!!!!