Gamblers: Bucs Will Be Bad In 2018
May 2nd, 2018
Season-win projections.
The Bucs will be better in 2018 than in 2017 but still a losing team.
And still no playoffs.
That’s what Brent Musberger’s “friends in the desert” believe as the Westgate Superbook Monday came out with its season-win totals. And despite the Bucs overhauling their defensive line and adding a speedy running back to arguably the most talented offensive skill position players in the NFC, it was not enough to change the minds of the Las Vegas crowd.
Per the Westgame Superbook, the Bucs’ season win-total line debuts at 6.5 wins.
Joe thinks it is fair to type that if the Bucs only win six games this fall, barring a long suspension or another major injury to America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston, there may be new employees at One Buc Palace come the end of January.
May 2nd, 2018 at 12:04 am
Because Joe there is a perception that these coaches put a ceiling over the team. And a tough division again doesn’t help.
May 2nd, 2018 at 12:07 am
Honestly. All logic says they will have a loosing record. Jameis hasn’t progressed. Dirk doesn’t hold coaches and staff accountable and our defense has always looked good on paper until kickoff. 7-9
May 2nd, 2018 at 12:08 am
Very true.
May 2nd, 2018 at 12:12 am
This is where their staying safe with this 6.5. They will get alotta under bettors. I’ll bet over 6.5
Easy bet
May 2nd, 2018 at 12:20 am
What’s the payout on that line? I will throw chips on that, Jameis and the Bucs all day.
May 2nd, 2018 at 12:23 am
How did Vegas feel about the Eagles last year, Carson Wentz looked mediocre th year before, sorry experts, you really don’t know crap, but yeah we probably won’t win more than 7 games, it’s a Bucs life baby
May 2nd, 2018 at 12:25 am
Unless you’re the Cowboys, Patriots, Giants or Steelers, nationally no one really cares
May 2nd, 2018 at 12:26 am
Oh yeah forget the Cheeseheads
May 2nd, 2018 at 12:26 am
Info may be in the link above.
May 2nd, 2018 at 12:33 am
Lookayear….WE..are in in at tough division..Drew Brews( Somebody jameis is..aspiring to be) Matty ice (who at any given monent,,strikes like s a Cobra
And Mr Newton (the contrary one..yet very effective and venomous!) Jameis is..
LAST amongt these. thats right LAST!! Fake all you like..he is last. Jameis has to improve..immensely!!! Tough division. BUTT.. NO EXCUSES. Thats what WE..do..EXCUSES!! What really sets me to smokin (your interurpretation).
is..Every GD yr..WE..Yes WE..Bucs..got excuses. Saints got no excuse, Carolina got none, and the Falcons? laughin at us for taking Koetter and pressbox Smitty!!!
I just want…WINS..By any means..NECESSAry!!!!
May 2nd, 2018 at 12:35 am
The Eagles had an 8 game over /under and trailed the Cowboys 9/5 and Giants 2/1 to win the Division with 40/1 odds of winning the Super Bowl last year.
All they can go on is the prior year.
We will win more than 8 games I believe.
May 2nd, 2018 at 1:07 am
We will be lucky to get 8 wins. Our division is stacked and the rest of our games are no cake walk.
That being said, I do like our moves this off-season and it’s football. You never know what will happen. If a few things go right we can be a 10 win team and if they don’t we can be a 6 win team.
I’m excited for it either way! Go Bucs!!!
May 2nd, 2018 at 1:49 am
A losing mentality is a culture; a mindset, and a way of life. Losing begets losing in its mental state. This is the elephant in the room in Bucs country. This disease oozes from our star player Gerald McCoy, it is dripping from the remarks of fans here showing their “Already Defeated” mentality. It is destructive and sad.
Fact is the 2018 Buccaneers team is the perhaps the most talented Buccaneers team in Franchise history. No, I did not mistype. However, talent is not enough. The players have to silence the steady low hum of the losers in the locker room, send them to the corner and tell them to stay there until they learn how to be a winner. They must ask their fans, “Why not us? We are talented and we are driven to win. Why not us?”
Winning takes more than just talent; it is the drive to win at all cost. It is the ability to shut out the naysayers, to refuse to listen to their self-pity. Winners-Win. Kwon is a winner. Winston is a winner. Mike and Cam are winners. I believe that JPP, Jensen, and Curry are winners. Buckner is a winner.
With a little hard work and strong will, they can transform this team and finally defeat the Buccaneers’ losers attitudes.
No team on the 2018 schedule scares me, not a single one. The only thing stopping the Bucss from dominating is silencing the evil within that is the losers entrenched in the Bucs locker room and in the local Bucs culture.
Winning – Why Not Us? Go Bucs
May 2nd, 2018 at 2:03 am
OHhh Yea,…talented on the..Books! I disagree about Mc-Coy though. He realy is a star player. never had the sippotroting,,huh?..
May 2nd, 2018 at 2:09 am
Trust me Joe 6.5 is not the true number. The line they gave has the over at -160, meaning you have to lay more than 3/2 to bet over. 6.5 over 160 is closer to 7.5 flat than 7 flat. BetDSI has us at 7.5 with the over still a slight favorite. Westgate posted this for publicity only; they’re only taking very small bets.
It’s amazing how well they promoted this; it seemed like every sports oriented show, podcast and website posted these numbers and cited Westlake. Also, since they’re in Vegas, they get a lot of west coast money. I heard an interview with the lines maker; both SF and Oakland got a lot of support (money bet on them) for division, conference and Super Bowl propositions.
I said right before free agency that the best win total we could expect with our schedule was 7.5. To me, a post-draft win total of 7,5 means that Vegas likes what we did in the draft and free agency. And it means that Vegas thinks more highly of America’s quarterback than the general population does.
May 2nd, 2018 at 2:32 am
I couldn’t remember earlier, but their biggest surprise in terms of proposition support was that a lot of money has been bet on Detroit. To which, both the sports book guy and the interviewer gave audibly visible chuckles.
May 2nd, 2018 at 3:25 am
I dunno. 9-7 even 10-6?? This D-line is stacked with good players. Jones and Barber. Cappa make’s me drool if he can play like he did in college. Two second round CB. All depends on Jameis I suppose, but I like having Fitzpatrick as our back up.
May 2nd, 2018 at 3:45 am
Thats a fair line
May 2nd, 2018 at 4:28 am
Last year Jacksonville had an over under of 6. They won ten games plus two playoff games, beating Buffalo at home and Pittsburgh on the road. Why? A good draft and free agency— that’s why. Also, at this time last year, they were trying to run Blake Bortles out of town. The last thing a Jaguar’s fan could have imagined was that this year Bortles would still be their quarterback after having just signed a big contract.
Conclusion— anything’s possible…
May 2nd, 2018 at 4:41 am
I have lost a lot of bets betting on the Bucs. I just can’t bet against them even to win a stupid weekly football pool. Now Cleveland, different story, I bet against them almost every game. Maybe if I could swallow my pride and hold my nose and bet against them I could win but No-o I have to be a dumbass loyal fan. lol
May 2nd, 2018 at 4:50 am
I feeding have real turn over in our defensive backfield …there will be no change so I’m predicting both drafted corners and that Iggy guy will make the final roster ..not to mention Smitty has had the last 6 months to come up with a better scheme !! CONTINUE TO BUILD A WALL ON BOTH SIDES OF THE BAY!!
May 2nd, 2018 at 5:06 am
4th toughest schedule in NFL. The way they star the season will be a true test against some of the best in the business
Hoping for the best. The key will be Jameis.
May 2nd, 2018 at 5:18 am
I agree with JA … “anything’s possible”. Even with a very tough 2018 schedule, Bucs could run anywhere from 10-6 to 6-10 IMO. It all depends on 3 key people: Dirk, Smitty & Jameis.
Koetter’s major problem IMO is that he’s a OC who also happens to wear a HC hat. Unless he figures out how to make that dual-hat situation work, Bucs will once again be mediocre (personally I’d give Monken the OC reins, but Dirk won’t do that). Smitty’s major problem IMO is that he’s not tough enough with this young team. Plus Smitty’s situation is the reverse of Dirk’s … he thinks more like a HC than a DC, and he needs to do a better job of holding players accountable for their performances on the field as a DC.
But in the end, this team will only go as far as Jameis will take them. If he plays like he did in 2017, we’re 6-10 (at best). But what’s cool is that Jameis is capable of MUCH more than that. He’s got a supporting cast that most NFL QBs would give their left arm for & he needs to take charge. No more ‘WTF was that’ plays, no more fumbling, no more running this team up & down the field without putting points on the board. No more excuses … Time to git er done.
May 2nd, 2018 at 5:33 am
This is the best balance of talent on both sides of the ball we have ever had, and last season nobody quit. The effort was there to the very end. These guys will be fun to watch, and I believe they will have a winning record. Hopefully the Glazers will stop playing musical chairs and let our GM and HC build on the best foundation in team history. Free agency is not over. More cuts are coming. More opportunities to plug any perceived holes in an already improved roster. Go Bucs.
May 2nd, 2018 at 5:45 am
Joe needs to give Mike Johnson a weekly column.
May 2nd, 2018 at 5:59 am
Vegas is rarely off in their projections. Yes, the number is set to encourage the most action but still…
The more pertinent question is the over/under on how many games until Dirk is fired.
May 2nd, 2018 at 6:20 am
History has taught me to never bet on the Bucs.
May 2nd, 2018 at 6:57 am
Ah the positivity on this site is so refreshing…….Breath it in……lol.
I understand the way of the Buc fan, for years disappointment after disappointment but every year i get my hopes up only to have them squashed. They did a great job of hyping this team last year with Desean and the draft, and i for one ate it up. Just remember we were supposed to be loaded with talent last year, but i know one thing our defense can’t be worse than last years because we hit rock bottom last year IMHO and the only way from there is up, that being said better defense equals more wins, with the undeniable talent we have now up front on our d-line alone should net a few wins in it self with compared to the close games we lost last year. Barring Jameis staying healthy and not being suspended helps but we’ll see and i truly like when we are overlooked as a competitive team because i think we will hit our stride this season and surprise some teams. I just would like this year to be less talk and want more show me rather than tell me from the Bucs.
May 2nd, 2018 at 7:13 am
Mike Johnson Says:
May 2nd, 2018 at 2:03 am
“never had the sippotroting,,huh?..
_______________________________________________________
+1
tickrdr
May 2nd, 2018 at 7:27 am
I like the posts that claim that the oddsmakers know nothing….lol…..they don’t build those palaces in Vegas because they “know nothing”…..they were correct last year, for sure……come late August, go through that schedule, take off the rose-colored glasses, take your fan emotion out of it and see how many game are on that schedule that you know are SURE WINS…..
May 2nd, 2018 at 7:38 am
The Bucs will surprise everyone…pummel offensive lines…shred defenses…win the division and, yes, become Super Bowl Champs! I more stinkin’ thinkin’!!!
Go Bourbon Street Takeover!
May 2nd, 2018 at 7:40 am
I meant, “NO more stinkin’ thinkin’!”
May 2nd, 2018 at 7:42 am
KfromFL
I agree. These are the most talented losers in the NFL. Bar none.
May 2nd, 2018 at 8:02 am
Winston, M. Evans, Godwin, Humphries, Brate, Howard, ROJO, Marpet, D. Smith, Benenoch, Cappa
Vea, Spence, Kwon, Beckwith, J. Evans, Hargreaves, R. Smith, Stewart, Davis,
Folks – THAT is a LOT of young talent. Go ahead and take a bow right now Jason Licht.
That’s TWENTY very talented players who are 25 years old or less – that are either just getting started or who are playing (many quite well)but have not really come close to hitting their ceiling yet.
Vets like DJax, Dotson, McCoy, JPP, LD54 and Grimes already know how to play at a high level consistently.
Nobody talked much about the “youth factor” playing a prominent roll in the failures of 2017. These very talented but still young players that form the core of our team heading into the foreseeable future are the ones that have to step up and play with more consistency for this team to succeed.
I believe that is what we will see this year. Especially from Winston and Evans and Kwon – the young leaders of this team.
10-6 or better and our 1st playoff birth in 11 years is well within reach. The holes are mostly filled and its time for the young talent to shine.
Winston is the key of course. If young Jameis can continue his improvement and start coming into his full capabilities in 2018 – the sky is literally the limit for THIS Buccaneers team.
If not the Bucs – then who? If not NOW – when?
May 2nd, 2018 at 8:15 am
It is all on Jameis, and that line is on him, as he goes so do the bucs, I was a big supporter of him but this is a mke or break year for him and the franchise, but 6-10 is about right
May 2nd, 2018 at 8:20 am
I couldn’t be happier. After last year and all the preseason hype I hope we are the underdogs in every game. One of the most embarrassing features about last year that we were a potential playoff team compounded the negative perception of the team as they broke camp while every other NFC South headed for the play-offs. It opens the door for haters and provides them with ammunition with which they can on a daily basis inflict the sites with despair.
May 2nd, 2018 at 8:29 am
BucsFanScout3 Completely agree… I would DEFINITELY take that bet. I think well be around 8-8 or 9-7.
May 2nd, 2018 at 8:32 am
Exactly! They set the number based on a variety of statistics and metrics and it’s a fair number most of the time. Heck, last year Vegas’ projections was off for the Bucs. They set the over/under at 8 and the Bucs and people thought that was an insult. The team ended up far below that number.
May 2nd, 2018 at 8:51 am
KfromFLA – A well-thought post and one I wholeheartedly agree with. The fact is, that’s the biggest change Dungy made was in the mindset of the team. The mindset which inspired Warren Sapp to exclaim, “You guys see that s***? He and his teammates were watching Berman and Company call them the Yucks.
In one moment, Sapp proclaimed, “This s*** stops today.”
They went out and beat San Diego, and then the ball rolled from there.
My point is, these leaders on this team will have their moment of being fed up. They will step up and say this stops now. I’m not so certain that didn’t happen last year with the Saints game.
When my Panthers neighbors come up and ask what ya’ll got? I tell them 10-6 this season and the playoffs.
If I believed my team was going to be 6-10 or lower, I wouldn’t bother watching. Not because I’m not a true fan; it’s because I cannot bear to see my team lose. I go into every Sunday believing we are going to win.
May 2nd, 2018 at 8:52 am
D-Rome right on and they put the number where they make it on both sides and win with the vig, last year my win total bet was the jags it was super low, I think the eagles might be lower due to the shakeup with the team chemistry and then having foles for probably first half of the year which includes the home opener here
May 2nd, 2018 at 8:52 am
Remember many of those analysts predictions are by the same group who bring Mock Drafts, and we know how reliable they are. The weatherman has a better record.
May 2nd, 2018 at 8:54 am
bucs got me with the hype last year but it wont happen again…..im not making any predictions until I see how TC goes…..
if they win only 6games, this staff is canned…..you can bet that!!!!
#NOEXCUSESIN2018!!!!!….#PRESSURESONTHECOACHES!!!!…GO BUCS!!!!
May 2nd, 2018 at 9:06 am
D-Rome, Big Dust and Tom E: you guys are pretty much spot on with how the wise guys set the over/under totals with one other consideration that Vegas takes into account which is that the number is also set where the wise guys think they will get 50% of the money on each side of the line to avoid getting burned too bad if something unpredictable happens so they often over or under inflate numbers of teams with national appeal such as the Bellicheats, the NY teams, Pittsburgh, and Dallas, etc so if they think a bunch of nimrods are gonna float coin on their favorite team to knock it out of the park (think arrogant Steeler, Patsy, Packer or Raider fan in Vegas on a bender) they may edge the line up a bit and a team that is nationally expected to bottom out like the Jets may actually get a number slightly depressed as many are counting on a 12+ loss season, especially Giant fans….. Needless to say, Vegas rarely loses coin on any posted number.
May 2nd, 2018 at 9:13 am
Sorry, i am on the other side of the fence. I do not have a lot of faith in JW, but he now has weapons on both sides that should take a load of his shoulders. No longer will the opposing QB’s be able to eat lunch in the pocket while waiting for the target to get open. No longer will the LB’s need to compensate for the DL. No longer will McCoy be double teamed on every play.
There will be a learning curve but I see much improvement everywhere except for QB.
May 2nd, 2018 at 9:13 am
I agree with Vegas. But with a different perspective this time.
For the first time since the Super Bowl years, Jason licht has assembled a team that has the pieces to win.
The Bucs are finally a good team!
Yay
Buuut,
Too many Rookies are going to be intragal parts of the team.
And Rookies always suck year one.
Plus new D Line players need time together, to jell as a unit
Same with O Line
The Bucs have all the pieces. They will be contenders
But they too young, and Critical units havent played together, and will need time .
But Im excited with the Teams future. Even at 6-10 this year.
And thats a great feeling
May 2nd, 2018 at 9:16 am
I’ve got 10-6 for Tampa. 4-4 vs division and Eagles/Steelers. 6-2 vs the rest. Cowboys, Giants, Redskins, Niners, Bears, Browns, Bengals & Ravens.
Go Bucs!!!
May 2nd, 2018 at 9:39 am
Vegas always posts the opposite of what they think teams will do. Their objective is to get people to accept the predictions and spend money according to them, so that they themselves make more money.
May 2nd, 2018 at 9:41 am
Capt.Tim Says
“Rookies always suck year one.”
That’s not always the case, but for the most part you are right.
Many rookie RBs have great rookie years and then suck after that (Doug Martin, for example). WRs sometimes have great rookie years. A good DT can have one too.
I think it depends on the position and the player.
May 2nd, 2018 at 9:42 am
As to making predictions, I think it is way too soon for that. We don’t even know if ANY of the draft picks will be good.
May 2nd, 2018 at 9:54 am
Tom Edrington Says: “I like the posts that claim that the oddsmakers know nothing….lol…..they don’t build those palaces in Vegas because they “know nothing”…..they were correct last year, for sure.”
Tom- Vegas isn’t always right and doesn’t try to guess what any team will do. They want 50% of the bets on either side. And if you are betting over 6.5 wins you have to pay $160 to win $100. So the real line is closer 7.5. If too many people bet the over, the line will move up to 8 1/2 which is a as close to a perfect 50/50 for Vegas.
May 2nd, 2018 at 10:02 am
That’s not true at all. Vegas comes up with a number that they believe they will get the most action on and that number is usually close to how a team ends up actually performing. Last year Vegas set the number for the Patriots at 12.5. Patriots ended up winning 13 games. If what you said is true, that Vegas “always” posts the opposite of what they think teams will do, then they would be losing millions upon millions a year.
Every season there are a small handful of teams where the projection is way off like with the Eagles and Jaguars but most teams end up finishing within a game of that number. Personally I think the number is a point too low but it’s absurd to think this team is going 10-6 this season.
May 2nd, 2018 at 10:25 am
We will never win over 10 wins under Klueless koetter game management and philosophy…..going turtle
You cant win enough games going for field goals and playing close till the 4th quarter
The odds of getting over 10 wins in decisions from last possessions cant happen
Klueless doesnt have the temperment and too ego driven to bring in fresh aggressive modern offensive coaches to change his ways
“I am the Anti- Doug Pederson”
Klueless Koetter
May 2nd, 2018 at 10:53 am
They don’t call the oasis in the desert lost wages for nothing. If you’re there it’s tough to not bet on your home team to win or cover.
May 2nd, 2018 at 11:30 am
@Gambelor
Thanks for that breakdown. Sounds about reasonable to me considering the history of this franchise recently and the fact that casual NFL bettors are likely down on the Bucs after feeling a bit hyped last year.
I’d have been shocked if Vegas had us winning 8+ games as the line given the above
May 2nd, 2018 at 11:31 am
@Kobe
Agree that Koetter better have learned proper aggression usage. Too many turtles by too many of our recent coaching regimes. You don’t build an offense like this to play conservative and settle for 50 yard FGs that we are statistically likely to miss anyway
May 2nd, 2018 at 11:58 am
This conservative offensive attack leads to come from behind defeats from lesser teams and games that you have dominated for 3.5 quarters
This conservative offensive mentality puts tremendous pressure on the defense
For 2 years we have seen JW go from 20 to 20 in 3 passes….then the playcalling ,temperment and fetish for field goals takeover in Klueless
It is not the players fault and licht has given Klueless enough redzone playmakers…
The reason we cant score touchdowns in the redzone and step on the necks of our opponents throughout the whole game is…
KLUELESS TURTLEITIS
May 2nd, 2018 at 12:58 pm
Said it once, will say it again, May predictions now make no sense……all you need is one or two key summer camp injuries and it’s all moot……come back in late August and then tell me the Bucs are going 10-6……..
May 2nd, 2018 at 1:11 pm
Bonzi-
Rbs that have a great year rushing, wont figure out his blocking assignments for 2 years.
Wr make catch alot of passes- but will still occasionally run the wrong route- or line up illegally
Dts – job is more complicated then we think. Lots of switches, shifts, and stunts to lean. Plus learning how to teact to trapsi
You are right- rookies can contribute.
But they are a long way from being a well rounded player
May 2nd, 2018 at 2:07 pm
I think the Koetter/Licht line is 8 wins.
Get to 8 and you get 2019.
Jameis was fantastic at the end of last year to anyone watching actual games and stats.
If he survives suspension this team MUST win 8 games or there will be a regime change.
The Bucs did the most important thing…
They fortified the trenches.
(They need one more interior lineman)
THEY FIXED THE TRENCHES AND FIXED THE BUCS!!
it’s ALL on the coaches now.
May 2nd, 2018 at 2:09 pm
That’s fair, maybe a tad more than fair given the early schedule.
May 2nd, 2018 at 3:48 pm
I fell for the hype and lost more than I had business losing by taking over 8.5 last year. I won’t fall for this charade again…even at 6.5
May 2nd, 2018 at 5:09 pm
9-7 or better or the coaches deserve to be fired … unless there is massive injuries or a long JW suspension imho
May 2nd, 2018 at 7:51 pm
I’ve never placed a bet in my life, but I’ll take some o’ that action.
May 2nd, 2018 at 9:36 pm
Fitz played well last season and he can do it again, especially with a good O line and a running attack. I hope Jameis improved his long ball accuracy
May 3rd, 2018 at 11:07 am
I’m not big into projections and analytics for players/teams, but this is one of the most practical outcomes I’ve seen.