Ranking The Running Backs
April 13th, 2018
Second-best?
This is some interesting mumbo jumbo.
Now if you can ever master the art of crystal ball gazing, you could make an absolute killing.
Imagine being able to ply your wares with NFL teams to tell them which players will be busts in the draft, which will be surprise stars and which will be injury-prone. Joe is just going to guess an invoice for one’s services would begin in the low seven-figures. A year.
Well, the spreadsheeters are trying this very thing. An outfit Joe respects called “Football Outsiders” has a formula it believes fairly predicts how college running backs will do in the NFL. They cite their work last year predicting running backs Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook and Joe Mixon.
(They were dead wrong on Mixon and didn’t see Cook’s knee injury coming.)
So Football Outsiders, by way of Nathan Forster of BSPN, is trying to gauge how this year’s crops of running backs will nurture on the next level.
Of course they have Saquon Barkley atop the list and believe he is the best running back prospect since Ricky Williams. After that, they predict a big drop off in production. But their No. 2 running back? That would be Royce Freeman of Oregon.
In last year’s draft, BackCAST had three very good prospects that it rated relatively close together: Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook and Joe Mixon. This year, there is a huge gap between Barkley and BackCAST’s second-rated prospect, Freeman. That said, Freeman is actually a pretty nice prospect who may be severely underrated as a mid-round pick.
A good all-around prospect, Freeman received relatively heavy usage at Oregon, he has a good size-speed combination, and he had a better yards-per-attempt average than Barkley.
Maybe Joe doesn’t know how to breakdown running backs. Joe’s not saying Freeman won’t have success, but Joe wasn’t blown away by Freeman.
Joe embedded a Freeman highlight video below. You be the judge.
April 13th, 2018 at 11:03 am
The kid’s a Sleeper.
April 13th, 2018 at 11:04 am
*
April 13th, 2018 at 11:05 am
Yeah that’s just odd. I don’t get that. I wouldn’t even put him in the same class as like 8-10 other backs in this draft.
Even in his highlights – there isn’t much in terms of play s where he made something out of nothing or turned small gains into huge chunks. He’s running through huge holes most of these runs… Just nothing special in this compared to guys like Guice/Michel/Barkley/Chubb/Penny or even guys like Hymes or Walton.
And lol @ citing their predictions of those 3 RBs as some sort of chest pounding. What about Kareem Hunt & Alvin Kamar bozos? And everyone had Mixon/Cook/Fournette high so …
April 13th, 2018 at 11:05 am
damn I may have a disagreement with LUV
Now I have to reconsider my entire position lol
April 13th, 2018 at 11:10 am
What the Hell is crystal ball grazing?
Munching on crystal balls?
April 13th, 2018 at 11:12 am
I see stellar blocking in this video more than an RB doing stuff. Just my take.
April 13th, 2018 at 11:14 am
No one ever mentions Kerryon Johnson. He’s a more complete back than a lot of these guys.
April 13th, 2018 at 11:18 am
Royce Freeman isnt even in my top 10 RBs. This is the beauty of draft season I guess.
April 13th, 2018 at 11:26 am
https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/royce-freeman-1/gamelog/2017
Pretty consistent production…
April 13th, 2018 at 11:27 am
L.C lol
April 13th, 2018 at 11:31 am
Good spell check Joe
You can pull my previous post now 🙂
April 13th, 2018 at 11:57 am
I couldn’t help but think of the 2 year healthy Doug Martin, maybe bigger, when watching this. Not a lot of speed, good balance.
Don’t we already have this guy in Peyton Barber?
April 13th, 2018 at 11:59 am
If we are unable to move down and gather more picks I believe the Bucs take the best defensive back available in the first round. The next pick should be a running back. There are several solid running backs that will still be available in the early second round. We don’t have a third round pick but I would be fine with moving up into the third to pick a solid offensive guard/tackle.
We did absolutely nothing this off season to improve the leagues worst pass defense. We have no choice but to go DB in the first round. Sorry Winston I hope this line can protect you better with what we currently have on roster.
April 13th, 2018 at 12:36 pm
Royce can play and is a complete back, but the 2nd best in the draft? Um, no, not imho!
However, he’d be a big upgrade over what we have imho … this draft has a ton of backs that could start for us:
Saquon Barkley
Derrius Guice
Nick Chubb
Sony Michel
Ronald Jones II
Kerryon Johnson
Royce Freeman
Marc Walton
Nyheim Hines
Bo Scarborough
That’s 10 right there that could all start for the Bucs and I know I’m missing some other off the top of my head … if I was a betting man, I’d say we’ll either get Saquon or Chubb …
April 13th, 2018 at 12:36 pm
He is a down field runner with size and speed and he is a good back. But we’ve already got one of those in Peyton Barber. Now we need a real speedster that can juke and get through the holes. Maybe we won’t get Barkley but that’s the kind of running style the Bucs should be looking to draft.
April 13th, 2018 at 12:45 pm
NFLNut
I would LOVE to see the Bucs get Mark Walton in the fourth. He is exactly the type of running style I was talking before. He would be ranked a lot higher probably if he didn’t get injured early last year.
April 13th, 2018 at 12:53 pm
I like Freeman just fine, I don’t think he’s the #2 or even the #8 RB in this draft. I do think he’s a upgrade over Barber, but this draft is pretty deep for RBs. To me we can wait for Hines or John Kelly in rnd 4, unless Barkley falls in our laps at 7 (which is NOT going to happen, no matter how hard we wishfully think it will). We need other positions in Rnd 1 and 2 far more than RB. A Safety, CB, DE right off the top of my head. Rbs are always one bad step away from injury and their shelf life is age 30. Unless they are a shoo-in stud I just have a hard time swallowing them early.
April 13th, 2018 at 1:18 pm
I think we’d be set for years at RB if we picked up any of the top 6 on NFLNut’s list and get an opportunity to add Bo Scarborough later in the draft. I don’t know that Scarborough would make it to the 4th round when we pick, but I wouldn’t complain if we moved up and got him.
I know that would leave some glaring roster holes, particularly on our poor neglected defense, but between getting those backs and keeping Peyton Barber, we’d instantly have a complete rushing attack with reliable depth. We’ve seen what Koetter’s offense did back in 2015 when he had a ground game that defenses had to respect. The 2018 version of that with any one of those top-6 backs plus Sarcborough, with OJ Howard, DJax, and our newly-reinforced O-line would literally keep DCs up at night chugging Mylanta. If we somehow managed to get Nelson on top of all that, we could practically score at will.
We’re in great shape heading into this draft. With our front 7 as it currently stands, no one will be able to run on us, forcing opposing offenses to be one-dimensional from the first snap. Granted, since we’re going to be forcing opponents to pass on every down, I’d like to be more confident that our back 7 can stop the bleeding.
But, what that would mean overall is that our offense would be two-dimensional in every game and very few opposing defenses (if any) will be able to take that flexibility away from us, while our defense will be taking that flexibility away from opposing offenses in most games. I think that, alone, is going to give us more wins. Maybe even enough to grab a wildcard spot in the playoffs.
April 13th, 2018 at 1:27 pm
Wyoming must be thrilled that this kid has entered the draft!
April 13th, 2018 at 1:29 pm
@William Walls … “I don’t know that Scarborough would make it to the 4th round when we pick, but I wouldn’t complain if we moved up and got him.” I’m a big Bo Scarborough fan also William, but NOT in the 4th Rnd. He’s a big back with an excellent time (4.52) but as of right now WalterFootball has him ranked #25 RB and projects he’ll go in the 6th Rnd at best (maybe even UFA). I’d certainly use one of our 6th Rnd picks on him in a heartbeat, regardless of which RB we draft earlier (and we will).
April 13th, 2018 at 1:51 pm
The Bucs like Guice in the 20s, Nick Chubb at #38 and Rashaad Penny in the 50s.
But would obviously take Barkley at #7 if he falls to us.
Unless… there was a good trade down offer made for that #7 overall….
April 13th, 2018 at 2:11 pm
Hahaha…..So they invented a formula that so far got one guy right and two wrong. Sounds like their crystal ball is just as bleak as the ones most GMs and experts use.
April 13th, 2018 at 2:32 pm
nut
I agree….10 good one right there….
#NOEXCUSESIN2018!!!!….GO BUCS!!!!
April 13th, 2018 at 2:54 pm
Sony Michel
Derrius Guice
Saquon Barkley
Bo Scarborough
Nick Chubb
Kerryon Johnson
Ronald Jones II
Royce Freeman
Marc Walton
Nyheim Hines
April 13th, 2018 at 3:12 pm
“End of the 2018 season, Derrius Guice will be widely regarded as the best overall runningback in the NFL….He will be a patriot…and the word “playaction” will have a new meaning with Guice and TB12″
Kobe Faker
April 13th, 2018 at 3:58 pm
Dimitri Flowers is all we need.
April 13th, 2018 at 4:00 pm
I sure hope teams are rating the RBs like you guys. We’d be able to get Dimitri Flowers in round five and hit big time…
April 13th, 2018 at 4:02 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IPW_cRxKehc
April 13th, 2018 at 4:04 pm
He’s running behind some amazing blocking!
I definitely don’t think he’s the 2nd best back in this draft
April 13th, 2018 at 4:19 pm
Yeah, RF hasn’t gotten a lot of run in the national media. He lead the nation in touchdowns, I believe.
April 13th, 2018 at 5:08 pm
Nick Chubb….will have the longest most productive career….hope the Bucs take him in the 2nd round
April 13th, 2018 at 5:23 pm
Meh! Looks/runs like Doug Martin but slower…
April 13th, 2018 at 6:11 pm
The 5-foot-11, 229-pound Freeman demonstrated surprising quickness by posting the third-fastest times in the three-cone drill (6.9 seconds) and the 20-yard shuttle (4.16 seconds). His time of 4.54 seconds in the 40-yard dash ranked ninth, a solid performance for Freeman.
(These are rb rankings) He’s got physical ability. 229 4.54 6.9 and 4.16 17 bench reps. Those are impressive. Im not saying he’s the 2nd best rb in the draft but i’d like to see what he does albeit drafted in the later rounds.
April 13th, 2018 at 6:45 pm
This draft is the deepest draft in years, and guess what ? Tampa is gonna get one!
Maybe, just maybe, Barkley is there at #7
But if he isn’t, we will still get a possible game changer, in this draft.
April 13th, 2018 at 7:22 pm
JimmyJack, they actually got two right, Cook was the second leading rusher when he went down to the knee injury. NFL Nut, you left Penny off your list.
April 13th, 2018 at 8:09 pm
I’m not sure how you guys comment on the amazing blocking above and don’t see the same when watching highlights of Barkley?
Now granted, Barkley has some insane speed, but almost every play I’ve seen from him he’s also darting through a wide open hole just like RF…
April 13th, 2018 at 8:46 pm
Chris Says:
“This draft is the deepest draft in years”
No its not. An average overall crop at best. Less than average actually. Have seen a # of draftniks say there are only like 15 players worthy of a 1st rd grade this year.
That said there will be plenty of good players to find in the 1st, 2nd and into the 3rd rounds. Just have to choose wisely.
I like our position despite some bitching about the win vs the Saints to end last season.
April 13th, 2018 at 8:54 pm
This draft is deep at certain positions, like RB, DT, LB, WR.
Not necessarily a lot of 1st round talent guys, but a ton of 2nd – 4th round talent…
April 13th, 2018 at 9:25 pm
Reminds me a little of our RB we already have barber but I like him jus think we need some speed to go with our power we have in barber An quiz I hope we can land Sony from GA
April 13th, 2018 at 10:10 pm
Nick Chubb has an opportunity to be a BETTER version of Frank Gore. Barkley will be another Top-5 Penn State RB that busts and the signs are all there: a bruiser who avoids contact, lack of vision & instincts, inability to use natural leverage & balance. Okay, so I don’t exactly think he will be a bust, but he will have a very so-so career if he doesn’t get injured.
I would take Chubb with a 1st round pick, that’s how much I like him. However, the Bucs and the general fanbase are justified in being a little more cautious, so being able to get him in 2nd-3rd would be a major coup.
April 14th, 2018 at 8:56 am
Regardless, the Bucs need a running back in rounds one or two.
Saquon Barkley
Derrius Guice
Sony Michel
Royce Freeman
Nick Chubb
Ronald Jones II
April 14th, 2018 at 2:05 pm
Runs a lot like Marlon Mack….good one cut runner with deceptive speed and strength. A lot of his runs in his highlight reel involved terrible tackling and bouncing outside though…..Generally not going to have success with that in the NFL linebackers.
April 14th, 2018 at 4:26 pm
Chubb is not higher then Sony. Because of his 40 time? What the game tapes show
April 14th, 2018 at 6:57 pm
I really don’t think people realize how much faith the Bucs really have in Barber. They do. This draft is stacked with RBs. Trade back for Vea/Davenport in the first and Will Hernandez if he’s still at 38. Then go with BPA between CB and RB.