Projecting Jameis
April 5th, 2018
Looking forward.
So we know who the Bucs will play this season. We just don’t know when.
That should come in a couple of weeks.
But spreadsheeter Mike Clay of BSPN decided to dust off his crystal ball and printer, and his analysis suggests America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston, will have a fine season in 2018.
In fact, Jameis just might make his second Pro Bowl if Clay’s numbers are accurate. He has Jameis throwing for the sixth-most yards in the NFL this season with 4,469. You can see the Clay’s chart of the top projected passers for 2018 below.
Joe is going to go out on a limb and guess that if Clay’s guess is close to accurate, the Bucs should have a decent season this fall.
April 5th, 2018 at 1:31 am
Spreadsheeting or guessing? Still, If Vegas was putting a number on it and specifying that injuries or suspensions canceled the bet (kind of like in baseball where a pitcher scratch means no action—the qb would have to start all 16 games) that number would probably make a decent over-under.
April 5th, 2018 at 2:20 am
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Jameis would have led the NFL in passing yards last year by a wide margin AND finished in the top 5 in passer rating last year, had he stayed healthy imho.
When he was finally healthy towards the end of the year, he was BY FAR the best QB in the NFL in weeks 13-16 which was 25% of the season and every game was played against teams in the playoff hunt, so it’s a great sample size.
As for next year, I think Jameis, Roethlisberger, Stafford, Rivers and Luck (if healthy) will be the top 5, not in any particular order, for passing yards on the season.
As for record … I think we’ll win between 7 and 9 games most likely … although I could even see us going 10-6 and still missing the playoffs in a loaded NFC.
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April 5th, 2018 at 2:30 am
Also, to all the loons that say yards don’t matter, etc., take a look at that list … those are 10 of the best QBs in the NFL … you don’t see any “average” QBs like Flacco, Manning, Dak, Mariota, Tannehil, Dalton, Cam, etc., on that list.
One name is strangely missing though … Aaron Rodgers … but maybe that’s because they are expecting him to once again miss time with injury … some people are worried he’ll be the new Romo …
April 5th, 2018 at 2:57 am
Cant consider flacco average. Dude was 2 drops (anquan, houshmandzadeh) from nearly 3 straight super bowl visits. The others i cant argue at the moment. Not in jameis’s qb class
April 5th, 2018 at 2:58 am
And aaron will NEVER be a bum front-runner, like romo
April 5th, 2018 at 3:17 am
Matty ICE
He just saw this list and got PISSED!
We got 4 future HOFers in our division.
Ours just happens to be the youngest 🙂
April 5th, 2018 at 5:33 am
NFLNUT- actually, if JW had simply played to his average last year for all 16 games he would have finished with over 4300 yards, 23 TDs and 13 INTs.
Not bad considering the total lack of a running game and the number sacks/hits he took. I agree with you that he was showing a glimpse of greatness during the last quarter of the season. I was at the Falcons and Saints games and he made some throws that were simply Aaron Rogers like.
Put the threat of a good running game behind this kid and thee Bucs will be scary.
April 5th, 2018 at 6:22 am
But what Mike Clay FAILED to include in his spreadsheet are the games Gooddell is gonna invite Jameis to sit down. His corrected spreadsheet should reflect 2793 yards (6 game suspension) or 3350 yards (4 game suspension). Damn details.
April 5th, 2018 at 6:32 am
Andrew Luck is going to be the 4th QB on the list? I don’t see that happening.
April 5th, 2018 at 6:49 am
Walter Seidel – it seems to me, unless there is evidence the NFL has seen that we have not, they would be in a very vulnerable position if they were to suspend JW based on what has been reported thus far.
He has an eyewitness that says her story is BS. Unless she can produce something that shows otherwise, it seems very unlikely to me they would have just cause to suspend him for 6 games.
April 5th, 2018 at 6:55 am
Still finishing at 0 Playoff wins and 0 respectability. TU A in TWO Oh
April 5th, 2018 at 7:08 am
Lol. You know this is a joke when Aaron Rodgers didn’t make the top 10.
April 5th, 2018 at 7:16 am
Win….
I don’t care if he throws for 3000 yards….just win and quit giving the football to the defense.
April 5th, 2018 at 7:35 am
I’m pretty sure that Kirk Cousins now PAID and with those weapons is going to do a lot more damage than that spreadsheet factored in. Plus Andrew Luck’s BUM shoulder is going to throw for 4,500 yards?! No.
Hopefully Jameis’ total is that strong absolutely, really don’t care where it ranks for him, the more the merrier! But…this “list” isn’t great, or very accurate in this fan’s opinion.
Go Bucs!
April 5th, 2018 at 7:57 am
His total yardage should actually decline slightly do to the strong run game we’re going to have, after drafting a young stud and an improved defense, if only slightly.
He has to stop being J-miss and improve his accuracy, deep ball accuracy and cut out the ridiculous turnovers which, is what we’ve been saying since he’s gotten here.
At least his toes will be straight.
April 5th, 2018 at 8:45 am
Those garbage time yards when the opponent’s defense is playing soft really do add up. Plus it’s hard to put up big numbers when you are suspended
April 5th, 2018 at 9:14 am
Joe, why do you almost always use those pictures that make Jameis look like a goober?
April 5th, 2018 at 9:22 am
If the Bucs don’t win games, those yards are COMPLETELY worthless. In fact, I “project” that if Jameis throws for 4,000 yards again, we will miss the playoffs for the umpteenth time. But hey, he’ll be “top 10” something. Right?!
Balance. Must have balance.
April 5th, 2018 at 9:35 am
I would like to see his passing yards and turnovers go down and the RB rushing yards go up!!!!!…..
when jameis was at his best at FSU he had a great defense and a great rushing attack……that’s the identity we need to have this year…..stop being pass happy…..
#NOEXCUSESIN2018!!!!!….GO BUCS!!!!
April 5th, 2018 at 9:42 am
^^^CHA-CHING!!!!!!!!
Good call 813!
April 5th, 2018 at 10:41 am
Someone has to explain to Joe at what point should an offense throw in a towel and give up.
Wasn’t that the Bucs when they had Mike Glennon as a starter?
April 5th, 2018 at 10:42 am
@ 813
You mean the year jameis won the heisman and threw for over 4000 yards and 40 tds? Some of you dont get it. You dont buy a ferrari in order to be a soccer mom. The bucs will never be a ground and pound team as long as jameis is qb. Sure, they want to have a good rushing attack and will draft a good back this year but jameis if healthy will always throw for over 4000 yards. Sorry to burst your bubble.
April 5th, 2018 at 10:46 am
Garbage stats? Hey clueless jameis hater, the bucs were in every game but three this year. They were 3-7 in ONE score games. Do your clueless hater @$$ believe their was soft defenses in ONE score games? Educate yourself and stop throwing out false uneducated statements
April 5th, 2018 at 11:32 am
NFLNut
Great post.
Rome wasn’t built in a day and neither are the Bucs. But I think we’re catching up. I love FA this year…if we get Nelson I think the offense will finally get a running game together. I like Barber but obviously we are going to draft one as well. If it’s Guice who is a big mean bruiser we may end up with a nice tandem of backs and be able to pound the rock when NECESSARY.
We have been built to be a passing team. We didn’t spend the #1 pick in the entire draft on a QB like Lamar Jackson and in fact we passed the best running QB in the draft in years to take #3.
We signed DJAX to go with a top ten draft pick…a steal in Godwin…we drafted OJ last year when we had far greater needs than TE. If we complete our OL and #3 stays healthy…I agree totally with these projections. We are builit to throw the ball. If we can run it as well….watch out baby.
April 5th, 2018 at 11:34 am
Webster
Sorry for stealing your point about us being built as a passing team. I obviously agree with you. 🙂
April 5th, 2018 at 12:12 pm
TVAL … Joe Flacco will have to buy a ticket to get into Canton … the guy has been an “average” or “below average” QB his entire career … his entire reputation is built off one playoff run … he’s one of the more over-rated QBs ever. TEAMS not QBs win games and especially rings … and Flacco has played average ball on some GREAT teams …
April 5th, 2018 at 1:03 pm
JW will be playing for a new contract and the 5th year option. He’s going to go bananas next year. He was already playing lights out after the injury, next year watch the fak out. So excited to watch this team next year.
April 5th, 2018 at 1:31 pm
NFLNut
Not sure if we agree or not. Certainly accept your point about Flacco…maybe there’s something in the water in Baltimore…the Ravens also gave Trent Dilfer his ring.
So I will agree you don’t have to have a “star” QB to reach the big game…it becomes a lot easier…and I do believe there are QB’s who hold their teams back and keep them from winning.
Some might even be pretty good QB’s. EG. I think Rivers is talented and accompished but he hasn’t really gotten the job done for the Chargers. Some nice seasons but he hasn’t been “the guy” to get them deep into the playoffs.
Of course in fairness River’s supporters would point out how he reached the playoffs including the AFC championship a couple of years in a row only to have Tom Brady and the Pats end his run.
I’m really torn in my assessment of Rivers. Good QB…Great?
April 5th, 2018 at 1:33 pm
You cannot be a one-sided offensive team and expect to go far. Even the mighty high-flying Patriots manage top 10-15 run games. Simply put, if this team can’t run the football we will be looking at 6-10, 7-9.
webster- Just because he can, doesn’t mean he should. If our offense becomes balanced the yards will naturally go down while the scoring goes up. TDs not yards are what win games. Plus, the balance will aid our defense by keeping them fresh.
34 of the last 47 Super Bowl winners had top 10 rushing attacks. That’s not a mistake.
Look, if we’re able to run, this offense SHOULD open up. If and when that happens, nobody will even blink about yards.
April 5th, 2018 at 2:21 pm
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STPETEBUCSFAN,
If Flacco is “good” than Rivers is “all-time great” as he is infinitely better than Joe Flacco and always has been.
In reality, Flacco is slightly “below average” and Rivers is “very good”.
However, I don’t think Flacco has any shot at the HOF and I believe Rivers will rightly be a first ballot HOF’er.
Rivers is also infinitely better than Eli Manning … who will also be a first ballot HOF’er …
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April 5th, 2018 at 2:40 pm
NFLNut
Agree that Flacco does not belong in the same class as Rivers.
I’m not sure though that I see Rivers as being as good as say Marino who also failed to win the ring.
Rivers did have LaDainlian Tomlinson….and Flacco and Dilfer had incredible defenses.
It all just amplifies your original point….football is a team game.
April 5th, 2018 at 4:42 pm
just because you have a rarri doesn’t mean you have to redline every place you go!!!!…..lol….you’ll kill yourself or someone else……
that’s nearly what happened this year…..being too pass happy nearly got Winston killed vs the vikes….arz….n.o. and car……
FSU had more rushing yards and atts as well as a dominate defense in 2013 and he won the Heisman and a national championship……
FSU rushed more fewer yards and had less atts in 2014 to go along with a defense that had taken a step back and what did he win?….ACC championship…..
at this stage in Winston’s career in think its foolish to have him throw 35-40 times a game and rely on him to sling it all over the field to win games……
tell smitty and dirk to stop f’ing around!!!!!…..we have to score more than 20.9 points per game and we have to stop somebody on defense….simple as that……
#NOEXCUSESIN2018!!!!!….GO BUCS!!!!
April 5th, 2018 at 4:54 pm
@ bucsfanman
Not once did i say the bucs do not need to be more balanced. The bucs can have the same amount of rushes and be a much better rushing team due to a better line and back. And you contradicted yourself. You brought up the patriots offense. Tom brady and his 9 out of the last 11 years of over 4000 yards passing says hi. The two years without 4000? Injuried season and two years ago when they won the superbowl. He was suspended the first 4 games and finished with 3554 yards. So my point stands. As long as jameis stays healthy, he will throw for over 4000 yards every year because you do not by a ferrari in order to be a soccer mom. Sorry to burst your bubble.
April 5th, 2018 at 5:04 pm
One last thing. Jameis rookie year, martin rushed for over 1400 yards and sims rushed for 500. Thats a total of 2000 yards rushing ie a very good rushing attack. Jameis still threw for over 4000 yards. Ferrari
April 5th, 2018 at 5:36 pm
STEPETEBUCSFAN,
Oh, don’t misunderstand me … Rivers is infinitely better than Flacco but Marino is also way, way better than Rivers … in fact, Marino was better than Montana and was better than Brady ever was honestly … he just played on horrendous teams.
People who don’t understand football will flip out about such a statement, but it’s still true, and the same thing can be said with all positions and in all TEAM sports.
TEAM wins mean basically nothing when evaluating INDIVIDUAL talent.
April 5th, 2018 at 10:41 pm
Winston should have a new deal by now. I don’t know why they are going into his last year without him locked up.
April 6th, 2018 at 1:44 am
^ They aren’t … it’s not his last year … his 5th year is the last year as it’s the team option … his “new deal” as in a 5-6 year extension does NOT need to happen right now.
In fact, it’s more imperative the team locks up Marpet, Kwon AND Donovan Smith before Jameis as they don’t have that extra 5th year as none of them were first round picks.
Also, I imagine Jameis’ agent has told him there is no way he should sign an extension before Mariota as whatever Mariota gets, Jameis should get a great deal more …