Jameis And The Deep Ball
April 24th, 2018
The good and the bad.
The numbers may surprise you.
Over at FootballOutsiders.com, an outfit Joe respects, John Kinsley decided to do a project on deep passes thrown by quarterbacks. Who is the best and who is the worst.
Of course, a sect of haters wants America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston, run out of town on the first bus and holler until they are hoarse that Jameis is the worst thrower of the deep ball in the history of the NFL.
There is one element of a deep pass that is a struggle for Jameis: passes over 40-yards. Per Kinsley, Jameis has completed but 20.0 percent of these attempts, which ranks 26th in the NFL.
But you know what, Jameis isn’t even the worst quarterback in the NFC South throwing at that distance. Who is worse? That would be future Hall of Famer Drew Brees. The Saints quarterback connected on just 15.4 percent of passes 40-yards or longer ranking him No. 28.
In passes targeted from 16-19, 20-24, 25-29 and 30-34 yards, Jameis is in the top-half of NFL quarterbacks. In the targeted range of 20-24 yards, Jameis has one of the best accuracy rates in the NFL hitting on 73 percent of his passes, No. 3 overall. That’s better than Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan.
What does this tell Joe? Well, Joe remembers how fans flamed Joe for writing that Dirk Koetter should quit throwing bombs to DeSean Jackson and instead throw him shorter passes in space and let Jackson’s wheels take over. That idea still irks some of readers to this day.
The data supplied by Kinsley only buoys Joe’s contention. Koetter should craft an offense around Jameis’ strengths, his accuracy levels and not lean so much on the Don Coryell, bombs-away attack.
After all, it was Koetter himself who compared Jameis to Aaron Rodgers. So why not have an offense more like Rodgers excels in?
Of course, if, with all the work Jameis and Jackson are putting in this offseason somehow turns things around, then Jameis likely will become a lethal quarterback.
April 24th, 2018 at 8:06 am
That might be because Drew Brees is a peanut
April 24th, 2018 at 8:09 am
Nothing wrong with a 20 yard completion……..any completion over the middle to Djax is a potential TD. Get him the ball.
April 24th, 2018 at 8:13 am
Everyone knows what they see….
April 24th, 2018 at 8:14 am
Sorry Joe. Stats are for losers. And my eyes don’t deceive me. If you’re even SUGGESTING that Jameis is better than Brees in ANY passing category is sheer nonsense.
April 24th, 2018 at 8:18 am
It’s a head-scratcher that the average fan could see this and the guy calling the plays couldn’t.
Call plays to your team’s strengths. It’s not rocket-science!
April 24th, 2018 at 8:18 am
I wonder what percentage of those throws were made in “garbage” time?
April 24th, 2018 at 8:21 am
Amen Joe! Ladies love the long ball and so do a bunch of b!tch bucs fans. Let’s get the ball in the hands of our play makers and watch the success roll in.
I’m pretty sure Jackson can run just as fast with the ball in his hands so let’s get it there fast and early.
April 24th, 2018 at 8:27 am
@bucsfanman … “Call plays to your team’s strengths. It’s not rocket-science!” Best line in a long time bucsfanman. Sometimes we tend to overlook the obvious. Of course, without a respectable running game, team strengths are easier to defend against. And they’re probably a lot more predictable.
April 24th, 2018 at 8:28 am
Exactly why I think intermediate passes are a Jameis strength. Not sure the the length of a pass required to be considered to be a deep pass ,but 25 and under
sounds reasonable to me for intermediate description. Would love to see his numbers for 15 and under passes,suspect his accuracy might be better in the intermediate range also. That may be why Evans and VJAX were so effective
in 2015.
April 24th, 2018 at 8:44 am
Come off of it Joes, the vast majority here don’t hate Jameis just because they critique his playing honestly! We just want his idiocy to stop, on and off of the field (i.e. double-covered-Evans-forced interceptions, fumbles, ass-passes & lewd acts or reports of them). We want him to be great but those things are incongruent with greatness, no?
You state that he is good at deep passes but, your first statistic has him ranked 28th at passes over 40 yards. By definition, isn’t that a deep pass, the deepest in fact?! That only confirms what the eye sees that, he is bad at it! Drew Brees has a lower completion percentage because he probably has many more attempts at that range. The kid clearly needs to get better on his deep throws. However, I do agree with your view of a shorter passing game and playing to his strengths.
But please, give us a break, he’s not living up to the expectations, not yet but, we/I hope it happens, SOON! Oh yes, right after his suspension, however long that will be!?…but by pointing out yet another “negative” FACT about Jameis, I’m hatin’?!?!
April 24th, 2018 at 8:44 am
Also have seen some evidence Jameis might be getting a little better on the deep pass ,but the injury did not help his progress. No doubt in my mind Jameis wants to
complete the deep pass as much as Koetter does. See his last pass to Godwin.
At any rate, we should try two a game to stretch the defense until the
accuracy justisfies an increase. If we don’t throw them ,I see little chance of improvement in this area.
April 24th, 2018 at 8:53 am
I’m sure someone can dig up #’s that shows our defense isn’t that bad either.
April 24th, 2018 at 9:00 am
The number 1 skillset of a nfl reciever is route running and separation.
This is why vikings reciever laquon trendwell cant sniff the field and reason why bellichick/ brady was fine trading brandin cook to the rams
The bucs recieves MEME and djax is 2 of the worst route running recievers in the NFL
“”Give JW a descent route runner(rashad greene) his percentage/ effiency/3rd downs/scoring will double
April 24th, 2018 at 9:12 am
In what world is a 35-yard pass not “deep?”
April 24th, 2018 at 9:20 am
@miken … “I’m sure someone can dig up #’s that shows our defense isn’t that bad either.” Hard to argue with Joe who has Bucs listed as the #32 defense in the league based on passing yardage given up. Yup, same Joe who has Bucs’ offense listed as #4 because they passed for the 4th most yards last season.
In processing the above, please disregard the 5-11 record last year.
April 24th, 2018 at 9:31 am
I have never been a JW fan.. Having said that, if he had protection, he may not have to worry about that next hit.
Its the trenches that matter
April 24th, 2018 at 9:32 am
26 and there’s only 32 teams …I’m totally impressed and have decided that Winston’s the best thing to happen to this franchise since the days of Dan Fouts, and Kenny Stabler were chucking fly patterns. Just to think if Winston could’ve actually hit Jackson on just a couple more of his deep passes last season he might have been 25th. smh
April 24th, 2018 at 9:34 am
Kyle Lauletta 2nd rd to NE
April 24th, 2018 at 9:38 am
Most people here watch Buc games and highlights. That’s it. So they see all of the misses from Winston and all of the hits from the other qbs. Truthfully, if Winston improves the deep ball marginally, he will be one of the most dangerous QB‘s in the game. I don’t mind Koetter calling the deep ball. My issue is how he sets them up. Get a great running back and the safeties will come up. Not drafting a RB in the first or second is criminal. Not playing him due to pass blocking is equally criminal.
April 24th, 2018 at 9:54 am
“N” is a universal constant used in statistics to expand and thus prove a theory as applicable in all cases. Statistics as it applies to football is predicated on whoever is holding the pencil at a given time. Logic would dictate that a high percentage of 10 to 20 yard completions would provide a team with the opportunity to maintain offensive control, thus depriving it’s opponent access to the ball while gaining field position, and hopefully a score. If the game was determined on how many passes 60 yds+ were completed fans would eventually become board and we may see an increase in Ping Pong stadiums. In summary, forget the statistics, watch and enjoy the game, get drunk, and stop burning brain cells analyzing trivia.
April 24th, 2018 at 10:00 am
Joe c’mon man you are comparing a very old Brees to a young man. He should be able to throw deeper than a guy who is bear retirement. Why not compare him to the guys under 38 yes old? I didn’t know it was cherry picking season. Like one poster said how many in garbage time when the D is soft? Face it your soon to be suspended quarterback hasn’t done anything to elevate the status of this team
If anything there is a dark cloud that even the national guys can see. Trade the groper for a haul and make every non Seminole fan happy. The Browns are dumb enough to do it for the two first and a second. Then we can grab Saquon, Chubb, or Nelson and get a Qb that can pass beyond 25 yards. After that we can solidify our secondary with the 2nd round picks and a safety in the early 4th
Now we no longer have holes, Own the best Rb since Gurley and get a top notch pass rusher or generational guard. Oh and a qb that can make EVERY NFL throw. Trade him before he has no value because you know if he has had a few incidents with women at such a young age, there is likely going to be more just based off the history. What a disgrace to have a guy who violates women on the regular “allegedly”! We need a quality human being as the leader of this team, not a guy I would be worried to leave my daughter around.
April 24th, 2018 at 10:03 am
Why is every comment of mine being moderated? It’s like I’m in Russia talking bad about Putin or something. How dare I question the king…
April 24th, 2018 at 10:13 am
Jameis got it
April 24th, 2018 at 10:21 am
Honestly if you look at Winston’s numbers/statistics he is Top 10 in a lot of categories. Drew Brees averaged 270.5YDs/Game and Jameis 269.5YDs/Game
If he had played in every game he would have been 6th in the League in Total Yards.
Drew Brees only threw 23 touchdowns and Winston 19, again in 3 less games and an injury.
His Comp Percentage has gone from 58% to 60% to 63%.
I fully believe that Winston is Top 5 in at least 4 categories in the upcoming year.
April 24th, 2018 at 10:37 am
Winston throws darts to a spot 15-25 yards downfield about as well as any QB in the league. That’s a good range to be your strength. He’s also pretty good at shorter passes and putting some”touch” on the ball when appropriate.
Saw him hit tons of “long” passes at FSU and considered that a strength coming out.
Seems like the “Jameis can’t hit the long ball” narrative didn’t even really get any traction until DJax got to town.
I think this “problem” goes away this year.
The only real “problem” will be the mis-perception by the many who think Jameis has “accuracy problems” that ANY QB consistently hits more than 25-30% of their passes that travel 40 yards downfield. Its a low percentage pass by its very nature.
I can think of at least 2 or 3 of those type passes last year that should have been caught by DJax . One of them WAS caught and it was for a score – but an Evan Smith penalty negated that play. Connecting on even just 2 more of those type plays within 13 games played would have raised Winston’s “long ball” percentage and league wide rating in that category quite a bit.
April 24th, 2018 at 10:43 am
He’ll be the best garbage time QB we ever had! Point, points, points. Until he starts throwing touchdowns as regular as he fumbles the ball, we’ll always be in the losing column. Weapons for Winston = 20 points per game? GTF out of here.
April 24th, 2018 at 10:50 am
Fine Joe, Jameis is good under 35 yards and dreadful over it, with possibly the greatest modern day deep threat in the NFL. How far did the ball travel in those completions? Of course we’ll take a 35 yard completion, however we get it. But he clearly struggles with his deep (& sometimes short) accuracy.
DJax has been fantastic with several other quarterbacks; everyone but Jameis. You are capable of reading between the lines. Jameis can’t hit a guy who is virtually wide open after 20 yards, in Jackson.
No, I’m not a Jackson jock-sniffer either as his effort leaves me wanting, as you have written about.
I simply want Jameis to be better in ALL areas.
April 24th, 2018 at 10:50 am
In looking at Jameis long ball stats, let’s not forget the fact that Evans is the kind of guy that will go up and get the ball over many corners. It doesn’t have to be on a dime for him to make a catch. Frankly, from what I’ve seen so far, I’d have to say “average”.
April 24th, 2018 at 10:57 am
Some posters here act like “I already have my opinion, don’t confuse me with facts!”
Add a run game and watch the ‘accuracy problems’ vanish!
April 24th, 2018 at 11:22 am
“JW deep passing will be much better when….
He throws deep to Chris Godwin….
Because he runs the deep routes better”
Kobe the Parrot
April 24th, 2018 at 11:37 am
Run game has nothing to do with accuracy. Don’t say he’s fantastic because all of the garbage time yards he racks up in the short game, but its the run games fault for his lack of accuracy? Delusional. Same stupid logic saying its the play calling fault or his fumbling, inaccuracy, lack of TD’s – but all the yards he racks up that makes the homers drool have nothing to do with it.
April 24th, 2018 at 11:42 am
Try and justify Winston all you want with Stats. The fact is he’s 18-45 as a starter. You would this a QB with all the so called great stats would win more games. Can I be the first to buy Winston his one way Bus ticket!
April 24th, 2018 at 11:55 am
Koetter should craft an offense around Jameis’ strengths, his accuracy levels and not lean so much on the Don Coryell, bombs-away attack.
After all, it was Koetter himself who compared Jameis to Aaron Rodgers. So why not have an offense more like Rodgers excels in?
^^BINGO^^
only competent coaches adjust and scheme around players strengths……we witnessed this staffs inability to make adjustments and fail to put players in position to be successful and play to their strengths…..simple as that’s…..
#NOEXCUSESIN2018!!!!!….GO BUCS!!!!!
April 24th, 2018 at 12:07 pm
All this nonsense reminds me of the morons assessment of Doug Williams when he was here.
The joke was that he could overthrow the Ayatollah.
Its just hatred, pure and simple.
April 24th, 2018 at 12:15 pm
Winston cannot throw a deep ball with accuracy. We heard he would’t be able to overthrow jackson. Suprise suprise. Winston couldn’t hit a wide open receiver in stride if you gave him a bucket of balls.
April 24th, 2018 at 12:30 pm
While i agree with 95 % of your take Pickgren,here’s mine. Jameis strugggled to hit the go routes to mike Evans before D jax came here. It is an area he can improve on. Some were over his .head or to the wrong side of the field. Several of throws, the defender had a better chance to catch the ball. He has uncorked a perfectly accurrate 68 yarder in the middle of the field on the run,so I would like to see
less go routes and more passes to the middle of the field or take take advantage of Evans’ sideline toetap routes. And I also think he showed some improvement toward the end of the year so it is a work in progress.
April 24th, 2018 at 12:53 pm
Jameis is around 70% accuracy with everyone except Djax. With Djax it fell to like 50% of lower. Plus the longer he holds the ball the more he gets hit.
This kid has been playing hurt since the bengals preseason game problem is some of ya too dumb to see what really going on.
After that article last night I’m hoping Jameis finds a new home quickly. You guys deserve Josh McCown, Ryan Fitz and Ryan Griffin as your QBs.
April 24th, 2018 at 12:54 pm
There are certainly areas where Jameis can improve…he would say so himself.
But I swear…people here resemble where America is right now…facts that you don’t like you can simply dismiss as fake news. So facts like in this piece that show #3 was more successful with the deep ball last year than Drew Brees simply doesn’t fit “some” narratives here.
In America we believe what we feel not what is real. Fact be damned.
April 24th, 2018 at 12:57 pm
Plus another factor you won’t consider is that some if not most of these receivers can’t catch. Our very own JBF called Mike Evans K-Y hands. Simms drops a perfectly thrown ball, Winston completes a 80 yard pass but gets called back bc of holding.
This whole team is a dumpster fire but please let’s call out the best player on the team.
April 24th, 2018 at 1:24 pm
I keep going back to the play-calling. The very definition of insanity is repeating the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Get the ball out of his hand faster with more short/intermediate routes until the defense starts cheating. Boom, right over the top.
Koetter has him standing back there like a statue with an, at best, average offensive line and zero commitment to the run-game. It’s a recipe for failure. The TWO times (maybe) all season they hit DJax short in open space he went 20-30 yards. Um, hello!
Just because you CAN throw deep doesn’t mean you SHOULD!
April 24th, 2018 at 3:00 pm
3 can throw a deep pass. His problem is adjusting to DJax’s speed, his height, and the fact that DJax likes the ball to fall perfectly in the bread basket and in stride. He has hit Juice, ME13, Brate, Godwin, VJax, ASJ long. Can anyone spot the similarities? HEIGHT!
But, let’s not get carried away with the stats either. If Drew Brees had our WRs and TEs, he would be breaking records quarter by quarter. He has a good deep ball as well, he just doesn’t have 6’5″ highpoint WRs/TEs running to catch his balls.
The chemistry between 3 and 11 has to come together cuz he was brought here to stretch the D. But, they have to mix it up with shorter passes with him to maximize his threat effect.
April 24th, 2018 at 4:22 pm
Record breaking pro bowler national champ Heisman winning franchise QB 24 yoa leader of men
Nowhere in there is perfect no one is
Give the kid a running game and a halfway decent defense and watch out
April 24th, 2018 at 5:20 pm
A lot of you Winston fans were saying …”just wait”…Well 2 years later how $&%@ing much longer do we need to wait?
April 24th, 2018 at 10:05 pm
Eric, you are insane. If your posts are monitored it’s because you probably need to be Baker Acted