I think unsure is the only answer
Who knows who is gonna be there after pick 4 and what other teams might want to move up. To many unknowns to say anything else
I’m surprised Joe has no comment on the Jeff Garcia foolishness. Not that it’s worth discussing, but purely for the opportunity to post a pic of Garcia’s wife.
If Chubb, Nelson or Barkley (normally against taking a RB in the first round, but will make an exception here) is on the board, then make the pick. Otherwise trade down.
If Licht picks one of these safeties, then I will be calling for his head. No safety is worth the no. 7 overall.
It’s really weird how the media seems to be picking spots 5 & 6 as big QB trade up spots but never mention 7 or the Bucs. I think it’s because we’re the Bucs honestly.
It’s insane to me no one has floated the analysis that a big trade down is LESS likely when a Nelson/Chubb/Barkley are still left on the board which is extremely likely at 5 & 6 but not as much at 7. The Broncos/Colts could use any of those 3 players badly. The price to give up that player should be a lot greater than the price of the Bucs taking a chance on not getting Derwin James. This is basic logic to me but wtfdik.
Dream scenario right now is that the big 3 are gone and the QB left is a guy coveted by 2-3 teams – i.e. Bills/Cardinals/Patriots.
At that point Licht can basically call around and say
“Hey Bills. We are shopping this pick hard. If you don’t make this trade then the Cardinals or Patriots will. The Cards are willing to give us another 2 and 3 right now – what can you do?”
And go around and around until they settle on the highest possible return between said 3 teams. These scenarios are how you blow up the trade value chart. And this is the only scenario where we can hit on like 4-5 players vs just 2 and a bunch of prayers
I want them to draft a leader regardless of position.
Barkley is talented but I don’t give Dirk enough credit to know how to use him especially if it took him all season to figure out how to use d Jack.
Nelson well I’m higher on our line than most and no offensive lineman has ever come into a franchise and led them anywhere. He’s very likely make them pro bowl often and even the hall of Fame but that would be as useless as Joe Thomas in Cleveland if it doesn’t translate into win like everyone assumes.
Will you people ever learn, you were stopping the playoff juices last year right after Howard was drafted we get to the season and Dirk only uses him when he needs to be bailed out from bad play calling. How many more first round picks and free agents do we give Dirk before we just say he has no idea what the hell he’s doing. No more 1st round picks for your sorry offense Dirk price you know how to run an offense, fix the defense and find is another Ali marpet guy in a later round. That position should be easiest to evaluate for Licht
Licht has focused an enormous amount of time scouting and meeting with prospects ranked from the mid 1st to the early 3rd round.
I believe Litch wants to trade back twice to the 20s and pick up 2-3 additional picks. He seems to be wanting to get OG, RB, CB, CB and SS in rounds 1-3.
Litch pretty much shows his hand on which positions in which round he is targeting.
I completely agree. Litch is playing this just right. The big 3 will be gone and 3 QBs will be off the board. Bills/Cards/Pats/Steelers/Saints all need to be considering QBs of the future.
If we ca trade back to the Bills #12, I think the Patriots/Cards will be happy to trade up to #12 as well.
Licht could end up with 2 first rounders 2 second rounders and 2 3rd rounders. Tossing in a player like DJax to the Patriots woud certainly sweeten a deal. Brady to DJax would be a nightmare for the entire league.
I think if Licht trades back the room will explode like we picked up one of the big three. Hopefully this time he takes advantage of teams desperation especially if he’s bold enough to trade back with a team in his own division….. Don’t do that with the saints, we need them to hurt for a qb a few years
This going down to the wire but I think we are trading down with Bills. We are gonna get those two first round picks. Im at the point where the trade down community is at a split of what we should do. It’s simple they have pretty much said it that we trade down still get James and grab Michel with the other first round pick. A trade with the Bills would also give us some bottom capital to leverage another trade with another team that has two first round picks which is Licht’s former, former employer the Patriots. Licht’s and Tampa as an organization have a great realationship with the Patriots so I say we can convince them to move down in the second and pick up more late round picks to have a chance at the hidden gems late. It’s now a game of trade more or just being happy we got one trade but I think we got something cooking with them as well. That got two first round picks and immediately called Tampa the next day after trading Cooks. News flash ppl that call wasn’t to move up in the draft that’s for damn sure. Like I said really connect these dots together that have gone down this offseason within Tampa Bay front office. They already tip the Giants in the draft pretty much letting Buffalo know they ain’t getting that trade either so Tampa is their last resort. The Patriots are interesting though because they love moving down and accumulate picks. They have four second round picks already but they may looking to reposition those picks and we have the sixth pick of that rounder could give them one we get from Buffalo deal and swap the picks would be even bigger for them. They will load up in that round regardless but it’s a premium round so position would be everything for the Patriots in the second round plus They could still move back themselves in the first round and just gain loads more late round capital and stack their offensive line with quality and disciplined players like they were in the beginning
The only way we trade down is if we get an offer that is too good to pass up. And if one of the “Big 3” is on the board at 7, we say “No thank you to the team wanting to trade up…”
Although, if we could score Hernandez and McGlinchy in the first round, then I would be on board with trading back.
Pa Privateer Says
“He seems to be wanting to get OG, RB, CB, CB and SS in rounds 1-3.”
We don’t actually know that.
The fans and media are predicting it, but he could go DE in round one after a trade down…heck, he could go LB with the intent of converting him to a DE.
Colts have been tied heavily to Nelson/Chubb/Barkley and now Roquan Smith and haven’t interviewed many candidates in the mid to late 1st.
Broncos have barely met with or shown interest in a lot of mid to late 1st round candidates.
Meanwhile the Bucs have met with a ton of guys pegged as mid to late 1st rounders (Jaire Alexander/Joshua Jackson/Taven Bryan/Marcus Davenport/Derriuce Guice/ – hell even Derwin James / Vita Vea / Denzel Ward / Minkah Fitz are not top 10 locks by any means)
But yeah it makes the most sense that 5 and 6 are trying to trade back and the Bucs aren’t even mentioned by the media as a possibility :\
Considering the media never correctly predicts draft trades I am feeling good about the chances
BlogTalkFootball says:
“if we could score Hernandez and McGlinchy in the first round, then I would be on board with trading back”.
Wow. Ya know what? I never even thought of that possibility – probably because our needs at RB and CB seem so great.
But if a really good OT prospect falls into your lap on draft day – its foolish not to take advantage of that. Licht 100% should have drafted Tunsil instead of VH3 2 years ago…
If the Bucs could trade down with either Buffalo or NE – and come out of this draft with TWO 1st rd OLinemen – McGlinchey/Hernandez or Wynn/Orlando Brown for instance – that would set this offense up to succeed for years. It all starts up front dammit! Complete that “rebuild the trenches” offseason goal with an exclamation point!!
Gencoimports Says:
April 25th, 2018 at 9:52 am
If Chubb, Nelson or Barkley (normally against taking a RB in the first round, but will make an exception here) is on the board, then make the pick. Otherwise trade down.
———–
Oh, but you’d take an EFFING guard in the top 10… .brilliant!
First off, I love yours and LC and everyone else’s level headed discussion this time of year. Thank you for that. My background is intelligence and analysis so I look for patterns and licht shows a lot of patterns over the last 3 drafts. I am not a special person, just a researcher who loves the bucs and the draft. One more day guys!!!!
I agree it is always a crap shoot from every angle, like who falls or player trades, but every year I look at who Licht brings in as far as position and ranking.
Last year he focused on TE and S in the first 2 rounds definitively compared to only one DE, one OT, one RB etc. That shows he has more interest in obtaining that position over another. IF he is looking into level 2-3-4 players at a specific position, that means he wants options to take that position at a certain pick. I went TE, SS, RB in that order last year, but also had Godwin listed as his second choice in the 3rd round and Stevie T in the 6th (went 7th).
This year is different for his scouting trends. He is heavily looking at OG(3), CB(2), and FS(2) in the first 1st rounds in that order. All of those prospects are mid to late 1st. In the 2nd/3rd round he is heavily looking at CB(5), RB(4), WR(3), OG(2). Interestingly is that those are high numbers for those positions. Past drafts by Licht show low numbers of prospects scouted in each round. Licht has never done that massive amount of scouting in set positions or rounds. IMO that means he wants to move down and gather a lot of picks R1-3……….after all, we have multiple holes and if he scores in this draft I am sure Licht will be given an extension.
tidbits of Licht 2018 scouting based on numbers/ranking/day:
OG will be taken in R1-2 (5)
We are taking a RB in day 2
DE is highly unlikely in 2018 unless one falls
DT Tavon Bryan is on his radar
9 CBs are in play in the R1-3
Shaq Griffin is the only LB he took his time with
WR Hamilton is a possibility in R4 and DJax is definitely up for trade bait
FS Armani Watts in the R4 is likely
I can’t post my entire research on here but I am telling you guys, Licht is desperate to trade down and get OG, FS, CB, CB, and RB in R1-3
High probability we are coming out of the early picks with a CB, RB and OG. (counting #102 as an “early” pick for these purposes assuming we don’t move down.)
Its a strong draft at all 3 of those positions which is a great match for our “needs” and there’s a # of ways that could go:
– Nelson/Jaire Alexander/ BPA RB
– Nelson/N. Chubb/ BPA CB
– Barkley/Hughes/ BPA OG
– Ward/Ragnow/BPA RB
That’s assuming Licht sticks at #7.
All the mid and late 1st rd prospects that Licht brought in for interviews this year – really signals his anticipation of a trade down.
Grabbing even 1 extra top 50 pick for moving down substantially increases the likelihood of filling 3 holes with good prospects. And with all these good players available at areas of need between 20>60 – that’s the real sweet spot in this draft – for the Bucs especially.
The farther we trade down – the more good players we will get. I know that sounds counter intuitive – but this year I believe its true as long as Licht is doing the picking and the picks we attain are mostly in the top 50-60.
Trading with New England for example would be ideal. We could fill some serious holes with picks #23, 31, 38, 63 and 102 from this years field of prospects.
April 25th, 2018 at 9:31 am
Unsure…. We’ll know when our pick is up and we see who’s left on the board.
April 25th, 2018 at 9:37 am
Keep it… if one of the big three are there. If not please trade down!
April 25th, 2018 at 9:37 am
I think unsure is the only answer
Who knows who is gonna be there after pick 4 and what other teams might want to move up. To many unknowns to say anything else
April 25th, 2018 at 9:43 am
I’m surprised Joe has no comment on the Jeff Garcia foolishness. Not that it’s worth discussing, but purely for the opportunity to post a pic of Garcia’s wife.
April 25th, 2018 at 9:45 am
Thank you Doc for reminding Joe about Garcia’s wife. Joe’s slipping. 🙂
April 25th, 2018 at 9:51 am
Chubb, Barkley, Nelson or Trade Down!!
EzyPeazy
April 25th, 2018 at 9:52 am
If Chubb, Nelson or Barkley (normally against taking a RB in the first round, but will make an exception here) is on the board, then make the pick. Otherwise trade down.
If Licht picks one of these safeties, then I will be calling for his head. No safety is worth the no. 7 overall.
April 25th, 2018 at 9:54 am
It all depends on what happens in front of them and who may fall to them at 7
April 25th, 2018 at 9:55 am
This sounds silly but how can I vote in this poll? It all depends on who’s available at number 7 when we’re on the clock
April 25th, 2018 at 9:59 am
@trey
then the 4th option is for you!!!!!!! Which “really” means you have no opinion and you are just wasting everyone’s time!!!!!!!!!
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
April 25th, 2018 at 10:09 am
This team needs day 1 starters more than it needs depth. Please don’t trade down.
April 25th, 2018 at 10:16 am
It’s really weird how the media seems to be picking spots 5 & 6 as big QB trade up spots but never mention 7 or the Bucs. I think it’s because we’re the Bucs honestly.
It’s insane to me no one has floated the analysis that a big trade down is LESS likely when a Nelson/Chubb/Barkley are still left on the board which is extremely likely at 5 & 6 but not as much at 7. The Broncos/Colts could use any of those 3 players badly. The price to give up that player should be a lot greater than the price of the Bucs taking a chance on not getting Derwin James. This is basic logic to me but wtfdik.
Dream scenario right now is that the big 3 are gone and the QB left is a guy coveted by 2-3 teams – i.e. Bills/Cardinals/Patriots.
At that point Licht can basically call around and say
“Hey Bills. We are shopping this pick hard. If you don’t make this trade then the Cardinals or Patriots will. The Cards are willing to give us another 2 and 3 right now – what can you do?”
And go around and around until they settle on the highest possible return between said 3 teams. These scenarios are how you blow up the trade value chart. And this is the only scenario where we can hit on like 4-5 players vs just 2 and a bunch of prayers
April 25th, 2018 at 10:19 am
I want them to draft a leader regardless of position.
Barkley is talented but I don’t give Dirk enough credit to know how to use him especially if it took him all season to figure out how to use d Jack.
Nelson well I’m higher on our line than most and no offensive lineman has ever come into a franchise and led them anywhere. He’s very likely make them pro bowl often and even the hall of Fame but that would be as useless as Joe Thomas in Cleveland if it doesn’t translate into win like everyone assumes.
Will you people ever learn, you were stopping the playoff juices last year right after Howard was drafted we get to the season and Dirk only uses him when he needs to be bailed out from bad play calling. How many more first round picks and free agents do we give Dirk before we just say he has no idea what the hell he’s doing. No more 1st round picks for your sorry offense Dirk price you know how to run an offense, fix the defense and find is another Ali marpet guy in a later round. That position should be easiest to evaluate for Licht
April 25th, 2018 at 10:24 am
Licht has focused an enormous amount of time scouting and meeting with prospects ranked from the mid 1st to the early 3rd round.
I believe Litch wants to trade back twice to the 20s and pick up 2-3 additional picks. He seems to be wanting to get OG, RB, CB, CB and SS in rounds 1-3.
Litch pretty much shows his hand on which positions in which round he is targeting.
April 25th, 2018 at 10:35 am
@LC
I completely agree. Litch is playing this just right. The big 3 will be gone and 3 QBs will be off the board. Bills/Cards/Pats/Steelers/Saints all need to be considering QBs of the future.
If we ca trade back to the Bills #12, I think the Patriots/Cards will be happy to trade up to #12 as well.
Licht could end up with 2 first rounders 2 second rounders and 2 3rd rounders. Tossing in a player like DJax to the Patriots woud certainly sweeten a deal. Brady to DJax would be a nightmare for the entire league.
April 25th, 2018 at 10:38 am
I think if Licht trades back the room will explode like we picked up one of the big three. Hopefully this time he takes advantage of teams desperation especially if he’s bold enough to trade back with a team in his own division….. Don’t do that with the saints, we need them to hurt for a qb a few years
April 25th, 2018 at 10:46 am
I hated to do it but I voted “Unsure”.
April 25th, 2018 at 10:52 am
Voted unsure. Very willing to trade down but if one of those top three are at 7, gotta go with one of them.
April 25th, 2018 at 10:59 am
This going down to the wire but I think we are trading down with Bills. We are gonna get those two first round picks. Im at the point where the trade down community is at a split of what we should do. It’s simple they have pretty much said it that we trade down still get James and grab Michel with the other first round pick. A trade with the Bills would also give us some bottom capital to leverage another trade with another team that has two first round picks which is Licht’s former, former employer the Patriots. Licht’s and Tampa as an organization have a great realationship with the Patriots so I say we can convince them to move down in the second and pick up more late round picks to have a chance at the hidden gems late. It’s now a game of trade more or just being happy we got one trade but I think we got something cooking with them as well. That got two first round picks and immediately called Tampa the next day after trading Cooks. News flash ppl that call wasn’t to move up in the draft that’s for damn sure. Like I said really connect these dots together that have gone down this offseason within Tampa Bay front office. They already tip the Giants in the draft pretty much letting Buffalo know they ain’t getting that trade either so Tampa is their last resort. The Patriots are interesting though because they love moving down and accumulate picks. They have four second round picks already but they may looking to reposition those picks and we have the sixth pick of that rounder could give them one we get from Buffalo deal and swap the picks would be even bigger for them. They will load up in that round regardless but it’s a premium round so position would be everything for the Patriots in the second round plus They could still move back themselves in the first round and just gain loads more late round capital and stack their offensive line with quality and disciplined players like they were in the beginning
April 25th, 2018 at 11:09 am
The only way we trade down is if we get an offer that is too good to pass up. And if one of the “Big 3” is on the board at 7, we say “No thank you to the team wanting to trade up…”
Although, if we could score Hernandez and McGlinchy in the first round, then I would be on board with trading back.
April 25th, 2018 at 11:11 am
Obviously we all mostly want to trade down and acquire more picks, preferably in the first, second and third rounds.
But if a miracle happens and Chubb falls to us (anything can happen), we’d have to take him.
April 25th, 2018 at 11:12 am
@Jason Mclaurin
Some advice…hit enter a couple times to form shorter paragraphs. That;s a big block of text to read, lol.
April 25th, 2018 at 11:15 am
Pa Privateer Says
“He seems to be wanting to get OG, RB, CB, CB and SS in rounds 1-3.”
We don’t actually know that.
The fans and media are predicting it, but he could go DE in round one after a trade down…heck, he could go LB with the intent of converting him to a DE.
Or he could Right Tackle.
He may not want what we want at all.
April 25th, 2018 at 11:22 am
@Privateeer
Sounds freaking great to me.
Another thing –
Colts have been tied heavily to Nelson/Chubb/Barkley and now Roquan Smith and haven’t interviewed many candidates in the mid to late 1st.
Broncos have barely met with or shown interest in a lot of mid to late 1st round candidates.
Meanwhile the Bucs have met with a ton of guys pegged as mid to late 1st rounders (Jaire Alexander/Joshua Jackson/Taven Bryan/Marcus Davenport/Derriuce Guice/ – hell even Derwin James / Vita Vea / Denzel Ward / Minkah Fitz are not top 10 locks by any means)
But yeah it makes the most sense that 5 and 6 are trying to trade back and the Bucs aren’t even mentioned by the media as a possibility :\
Considering the media never correctly predicts draft trades I am feeling good about the chances
ONE MORE F*CKING DAY
April 25th, 2018 at 11:47 am
BlogTalkFootball says:
“if we could score Hernandez and McGlinchy in the first round, then I would be on board with trading back”.
Wow. Ya know what? I never even thought of that possibility – probably because our needs at RB and CB seem so great.
But if a really good OT prospect falls into your lap on draft day – its foolish not to take advantage of that. Licht 100% should have drafted Tunsil instead of VH3 2 years ago…
If the Bucs could trade down with either Buffalo or NE – and come out of this draft with TWO 1st rd OLinemen – McGlinchey/Hernandez or Wynn/Orlando Brown for instance – that would set this offense up to succeed for years. It all starts up front dammit! Complete that “rebuild the trenches” offseason goal with an exclamation point!!
CB at #38
RB at #102
Ready to F’N Rock
I love it. Won’t happen – but I love the idea.
April 25th, 2018 at 11:48 am
LC & privateer
that would be great……especially if we could end up with 2 first rounders 2 second rounders and 2 3rd rounders.
then its all on the coaches!!!!!!
#NOEXCUSESIN2018!!!!!!….GO BUCS!!!!!
April 25th, 2018 at 12:34 pm
we need a QB and a DB and DE. the rest is not worth noting
April 25th, 2018 at 12:35 pm
Gencoimports Says:
April 25th, 2018 at 9:52 am
If Chubb, Nelson or Barkley (normally against taking a RB in the first round, but will make an exception here) is on the board, then make the pick. Otherwise trade down.
———–
Oh, but you’d take an EFFING guard in the top 10… .brilliant!
April 25th, 2018 at 12:42 pm
@ Bonzai
First off, I love yours and LC and everyone else’s level headed discussion this time of year. Thank you for that. My background is intelligence and analysis so I look for patterns and licht shows a lot of patterns over the last 3 drafts. I am not a special person, just a researcher who loves the bucs and the draft. One more day guys!!!!
I agree it is always a crap shoot from every angle, like who falls or player trades, but every year I look at who Licht brings in as far as position and ranking.
Last year he focused on TE and S in the first 2 rounds definitively compared to only one DE, one OT, one RB etc. That shows he has more interest in obtaining that position over another. IF he is looking into level 2-3-4 players at a specific position, that means he wants options to take that position at a certain pick. I went TE, SS, RB in that order last year, but also had Godwin listed as his second choice in the 3rd round and Stevie T in the 6th (went 7th).
This year is different for his scouting trends. He is heavily looking at OG(3), CB(2), and FS(2) in the first 1st rounds in that order. All of those prospects are mid to late 1st. In the 2nd/3rd round he is heavily looking at CB(5), RB(4), WR(3), OG(2). Interestingly is that those are high numbers for those positions. Past drafts by Licht show low numbers of prospects scouted in each round. Licht has never done that massive amount of scouting in set positions or rounds. IMO that means he wants to move down and gather a lot of picks R1-3……….after all, we have multiple holes and if he scores in this draft I am sure Licht will be given an extension.
tidbits of Licht 2018 scouting based on numbers/ranking/day:
OG will be taken in R1-2 (5)
We are taking a RB in day 2
DE is highly unlikely in 2018 unless one falls
DT Tavon Bryan is on his radar
9 CBs are in play in the R1-3
Shaq Griffin is the only LB he took his time with
WR Hamilton is a possibility in R4 and DJax is definitely up for trade bait
FS Armani Watts in the R4 is likely
I can’t post my entire research on here but I am telling you guys, Licht is desperate to trade down and get OG, FS, CB, CB, and RB in R1-3
April 25th, 2018 at 1:33 pm
Pa Privateer
That’s what I’m seeing without all those details.
High probability we are coming out of the early picks with a CB, RB and OG. (counting #102 as an “early” pick for these purposes assuming we don’t move down.)
Its a strong draft at all 3 of those positions which is a great match for our “needs” and there’s a # of ways that could go:
– Nelson/Jaire Alexander/ BPA RB
– Nelson/N. Chubb/ BPA CB
– Barkley/Hughes/ BPA OG
– Ward/Ragnow/BPA RB
That’s assuming Licht sticks at #7.
All the mid and late 1st rd prospects that Licht brought in for interviews this year – really signals his anticipation of a trade down.
Grabbing even 1 extra top 50 pick for moving down substantially increases the likelihood of filling 3 holes with good prospects. And with all these good players available at areas of need between 20>60 – that’s the real sweet spot in this draft – for the Bucs especially.
The farther we trade down – the more good players we will get. I know that sounds counter intuitive – but this year I believe its true as long as Licht is doing the picking and the picks we attain are mostly in the top 50-60.
Trading with New England for example would be ideal. We could fill some serious holes with picks #23, 31, 38, 63 and 102 from this years field of prospects.
April 25th, 2018 at 6:52 pm
No way a correct answer can be given until 6 picks have been made.