Game-changer
April 5th, 2018
Can do it all.
Joe is of the belief that if this guard Quenton Nelson is on the board when the Bucs select at No. 7 in the draft later this month, Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht will pull the lever on the Notre Dame product.
Joe, however, would not.
Now Joe is not being told by anyone that the Bucs will pick Nelson. It is just Joe reading the tea leaves. Why would Joe pass on Nelson? Simply put, Joe has never seen a guard in his life that can change a game.
If Saquon Barkley, Bradley Chubb and Nelson are all gone when the Bucs are on the clock, then Licht should find a quarterback-hungry team to trade down with and ensure that the Bucs grab running back Sony Michel. Joe has spent weeks campaigning for this.
Why? Because he is Michel game-changer.
Brett Sobleski of Bleacher Report agrees. He has a list of the top game-changers in the draft and he lists Michel at No. 3 behind quarterback Lamar Jackson and Barkley.
Don’t blink, because Georgia product Sony Michel will rip through a defense in a heartbeat on his way to a long touchdown run. Michel finished first among running backs in this draft class with 7.9 yards per carry last season. The 220-pounder also registered a run of 20 or more yards in eight of his 14 games and averaged 28.4 yards on his 16 rushing touchdowns.
Surprisingly, Michel didn’t test as well as expected at the combine with a 4.54-second 40-yard-dash. Yet defensive backs, even those in the SEC, never caught him from behind. His production wasn’t necessarily a byproduct of raw speed. Instead, Michel is a decisive one-cut runner with a noticeable burst through the hole.
Michel’s game is better suited to the NFL because he’s a better third-down back, with 64 career catches for 621 yards and six touchdowns. The Bulldogs staff didn’t use the Florida native nearly as much in the passing game this past year, but his contributions in protection were vital to the offense’s success. Big, physical backs aren’t in vogue anymore. Organizations want those who contribute on all three downs, and Michel can.
Imagine. If the Bucs trade down, in theory, they could get Marcus Davenport, Will Hernandez and Michel. That would be a freaking haul.
No, Joe doesn’t know if Michel can pass block.
April 5th, 2018 at 5:18 am
So you never seen a bad O line change a game? Interesting
April 5th, 2018 at 5:21 am
I do agree with the trade down for two first-round picks plus. but I’ve seen plenty of bad line Play Change games
April 5th, 2018 at 5:24 am
The last team to win a SuperBowl with a first round running back on the roster was the 2010 Saints (who had two).
Running backs don’t win you superbowls any more, having a great defence and a great QB do. Therefore keeping that QB upright is pretty important. Chubb, Nelson or James please.
April 5th, 2018 at 5:24 am
I’m sure plenty of guards have changed lots of games. Just because you don’t see them score a touchdown doesn’t mean that there not game changes. What about when a guard shuts down a teams best D lineman and or is opening up huge holes for a running back. Without good linemen there are no game changers. There’s more to a game then just watching the ball.
April 5th, 2018 at 5:32 am
Is no one reading “Hernandez” in Joe’s list?
The incremental value of Nelson compared to Hernandez is not greater than an additional 1at round talent. In this case Davenport.
Also, Joe’s assuming Davenport and Hernandez are 1st’s and Bucs get Michel in 2nd.
Don’t worry Joe. I got ya.
April 5th, 2018 at 5:35 am
If a ten year starter and all pro level talent is staring us in the face at 7 we better take him – any position but Qb or WR – so yes take the OG if he’s there and own the middle of every D we face
I’d like that
April 5th, 2018 at 5:59 am
If the big 3 are gone, they should definitely try to trade down. But they shouldn’t pass on Chubb, Barkley, or Nelson, IMO..
April 5th, 2018 at 6:07 am
Just as the Joe who wrote this article was trying to assert earlier in this off season that the Bucs don’t value an edge.
I would say it is equally obvious that this Joe doesn’t value Interior offensive line play. Nelson is easily worth a top 10 pick and would go a long way towards having a truly dominant O-line.
April 5th, 2018 at 6:34 am
OMG… Its almost like a top 10 pick shouldnt be used on a RB…
April 5th, 2018 at 6:56 am
Sony and guice are 2 favorite backs not named Barkley
It seems the bills , Dolphins and cardinals are all interested in a qb. Rumor is the patriots may be the 4 th team looking for that last guy so a trade down is possible. Patriots have 2 1st rounders. Josh Rosen , the forgotten qb is getting some late love from teams
We need picks. We need players. My ideal scenario would be trade back and somehow still get Derwin James or Denzel ward & either guice or Sony
April 5th, 2018 at 6:57 am
@Buc_Down_Under … “Joe’s assuming Davenport and Hernandez are 1st’s and Bucs get Michel in 2nd. Don’t worry Joe. I got ya.” Down_Under, Joe woke up delusional this morning; it’ll wear off, don’t feed him. There are optimistic scenarios, then there are not-a-chance-in-hell scenarios. Only 2 teams below us with 2 picks in 1st Rnd … Bills (#12 & 22) and Patriots (#23 & 31). IF (and that’s a BIG IF) we traded with either, odds of us landing Davenport, Hernandez AND Michel with those picks is about as close to 0 as you can get9picks are just too far down). Two out of 3? Yes, but we could have that without trading down. Besides, it’s much more likely IMO that trading partners will try to package in at least 1 pick from next year’s draft.
April 5th, 2018 at 6:58 am
Bills have two first rounders as well
April 5th, 2018 at 7:10 am
Nelson, Chubb or Trade down.
I like Sony Michel best of the non-Barkley RBs too Joe. But only if he can be had for decent value (outside the top 20).
Davenport, Michel and Hernandez are all likely to go in the 15>30 range – so that seems an unlikely “Haul” unless we were to spend most of our draft resources strictly on obtaining those 3 players (which I wouldn’t be opposed to).
April 5th, 2018 at 7:12 am
Totally agree. But if Nelson is there that most likely means 4 QBs have been taken ahead of us. No one is trading us for Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudolph. In that case a 10 year all pro that will make our interior O-Line one of the best in the league is not a bad conciliation prize.
April 5th, 2018 at 7:18 am
Sorry Joe but a good OLine is everything it you wanna score. And if you fan score that changes games.just ask the Dallas cowboys how important their OLine has been for them the past few years.and Sony Michel?!please….Guice over Michel ANYDAY OF THE WEEK.
April 5th, 2018 at 7:20 am
BUCS FINAL MOCK DRAFT
Draft Strategy – Bucs trade down
*Hold on to your trade hats, this could happen on draft night.
*Giants trade the #2 pick to the Bills for their #12 and #22 picks and a 2019 1st round pick. (Got the idea from a USA Today Mock).
*Bucs trade the #7 pick to the Giants for their #12 and #22 picks with OG Nelson on the board. Throw the trade book out the window, if you want him you gotta pay for him! Don’t look at me Kiper and McShay passed on Nelson too! Lol.
*Giants get OG Quenton Nelson at #7 and Bucs get two 1st round picks.
*WHEW!!!
RD1 DE Marcus Davenport 6-5 264 4.58 (pick #12)
*Signing JPP in FA is reassuring, but Tom Coughlin says you can never have enough pass rushers. Marcus Davenport is raw and a development project, but at every point he’s been tested he passed with flying colors, Senior Bowl, Combine. If you want an elite edge rusher in today’s NFL that doesn’t cost a fortune, you’ll have to develop your own. Look no further than Ezekiel Ansah and Demarcus Lawrence, even JPP. This should be a defensive player. SS Derwin James or DT Vita Vea could be in play.
RD1 OG Will Hernandez/UTEP 6-3 327 5.15 (pick #22)
*Trading OG Quenton Nelson, the Bucs still need a trophy left guard to complete their desire for a mauler-style O-Line. Hernandez is no Nelson, but he’s the next best OG in the draft. The Bucs could opt for a shutdown CB here too – Josh Jackson or Isaiah Oliver.
RD2 RB Rashaad Penny/SDSU 5-11 220 4.46
*Penny is an electric back that can do it all – from inside running to catching passes from the backfield. His ST play is excellent. His pass blocking needs work but will improve in time. This pick makes a lot of sense if RB Charles Sims is not re-signed. The Bucs have a private visit scheduled with Penny in Tampa. RBs Derrius Guice, Sony Michel, or Nick Chubb may still be there as alternatives. I like Penny for his added PR/KR value.
RD3 Traded to Giants for JPP.
RD4 CB/S Dane Cruikshank/Arizona 6-2 209 4.41 (pick #102 from Giants)
*Dane is another Combine phenom. He is a converted Arizona Safety that came out as a CB. Even though he has CB speed, I still think he is a safety and has the size to play in the box and the speed to play deep. He could be the eventual replacement for Chris Conte.
RD5 DE Ade Aruna/Tulane 6-5 262 4.60
*Aruna is my “sleeper” pick in this draft. He is late to big league football and has been under the radar until his explosive Combine performance. This guy can play – go watch his tape.
RD6 RB Ito Smith/So. Mississippi 5-9 201 4.50
*Ito Smith is the Tarik Cohen/Bears of 2018. He could be the second coming of Darren Sproles. He is not OJ Simpson, but he could be Judge Ito. I can hear Buc fans chanting “here come da judge” lol.
RD6 CB Michael Joseph/Dubuque 6-1 190 4.49
*As a senior, Joseph totaled 56 tackles with 8 INTs and 8 PBUs. Joseph made 4 picks as a junior and 3 as a sophomore. So why the 6th round? Joseph has the talent to work with but because he is a D-III player and hasn’t faced the kind of competition he would have seen at the D-1 level, his transition to the NFL will likely require some time and development.
RD7 WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling/USF 6-5 206 4.37
*Why is a WR in this mock when the Bucs currently have 8 WRs on the roster? For one that’s 4 too many and Scantling is 6-5 206 that has Mike Evans measurables and RAC ability – something the Bucs are missing. Scantling had a blistering 4.37/40 with a good Combine performance. At this size and speed he might be gone!
April 5th, 2018 at 7:21 am
Guice is not going to be there in the 2nd round.
April 5th, 2018 at 7:26 am
🙂
Get 6-8 TRADE UP scenarios ready between now and 8pm April 26th. Saquon Barkley.
🙂 (Brett Sobleski of Bleacher Report)…uh-huh.
Go Bucs! Go Bold! Go Barkley! Go Primetime!
April 5th, 2018 at 7:31 am
I agree totally with Joe on Sony…..after Barkley, he would be my choice.
It would present an interesting dilemma if we had a choice of Nelson or trading down…..I suspect that would make Licht more likely to require a treasure for the trade.
As the days go by, we seem to be in a good spot at 7.
April 5th, 2018 at 7:43 am
Assuming Browns take Barkley, Washington at 13 is looking at Guice, still have to worry about Giants, Colts, Broncos and Jets picking in front of us interested in RBs, Michel and Guice will not make it to our 2nd pick, so realistically I’m hoping we get Nick Chubb
April 5th, 2018 at 8:01 am
Guice, Michel or Chubb for the RBs if they cannot get Barkley……..another guy if they go later is the guy from Tennessee JOhn Kelly, he is a great 2 way threat at RB or Bo Scarborough who has fresh legs, after splitting carries
April 5th, 2018 at 8:02 am
Our best chances are to trade down with the Bills and get their two picks (#12  ) and get Guice at #12 and THEN at #22 pick a guy for the secondary or the the OLine. Also I’m sure the bills might package in a 2nd in this draft and next year’s first. that would help us greatly in this draft with 4 picks and 2 in next year’s first.
April 5th, 2018 at 8:02 am
I’m with you Joe. Guards don’t have that kind of impact. I wish I knew how or why RBs became taboo in the first round. Yes they get injured and yes you get duds, but if you hit on one, it instantly makes you a playoff team.
April 5th, 2018 at 8:08 am
Michel and Guice are on my “short list” behind Barkley. However, is Michel the next Reggie Bush?
April 5th, 2018 at 8:12 am
Joe, I feel like this take that I’ve read and heard you offer up a number of times seems awfully short sighted. Yeah, a guard hasn’t won a game by himself. Of course. But a guard can be a cog in a solid offensive line and that will change the complexion of a team. It can open up both the running game and the passing game. It can allow us to grind the ball and keep our defense off the field. It can do all of those things that we watched Dallas doing when they were covering up the warts that Dak Prescott showed us this year.
I’m not saying that he’ll be the cure all, but I think it would be a great pick if it’s available and they choose to go that route. Either way, we’re set up to land a game changer no matter what falls to us. That’s not a bad place to be.
April 5th, 2018 at 8:16 am
Football come playoff time was/is/will always/ be about running the ball and stopping the run…….Nelson would go along way towards the running the ball half of the puzzle…..and buy time of Jameis throwing the ball and being able to STEP UP into the pocket instead of scramble
April 5th, 2018 at 8:20 am
Yeah Joe, I agree with most here, you’re nuts about Nelson and the importance of an outstanding guard. That kid is a monster!
I like Sony but, to me he is a little difficult to evaluate. I admittedly have not seen many of his games but, in his highlights, he is running through gaping holes. No doubt he’s good but, huge holes in the NFL are rare as we know. He can take it to the house which, we haven’t had since Warrick Dunn.
Chubb is probably a bit more realistic for us in the second round. I would not be upset with either of them.
April 5th, 2018 at 8:23 am
Now to entice that call …who wants to dance?
April 5th, 2018 at 8:38 am
All of those traits and stats are interesting but the most important thing is can he pass pro? Otherwise don’t draft him. Pass protection is the singular most important factor for koetter’s approval. Running, for yards, is just so cliché. Anyone can do that.
April 5th, 2018 at 8:41 am
I’m cracking the whip on the RB Chubb bandwagon…..
April 5th, 2018 at 8:45 am
Good OLs dont change games? Its not about the 1 players, its about building a top 10 OL to run and pass behind. And imagine still getting Michel in the 2nd
April 5th, 2018 at 8:57 am
Bart Star over right guard in the ice bowl.
Only the most famous play in NFL history.
A guard can’t change a game? Silly.
April 5th, 2018 at 9:10 am
Who Joe pick at #7 if there was not a trade down opportunity worthy of moving?
April 5th, 2018 at 9:19 am
The draft is a fail if they go running back with the first pick, this draft is to deep at that position for it to be necessary and they production is always up and down. Guard doesn’t have to be first pick either. Corner, safety or d line.
April 5th, 2018 at 9:22 am
Pretty sure the game has changed since the days of the ice bowl
Most offenses ran the ball and ran the ball again and again and again Offensive line and running back was the offense
The qb handed the ball off.
April 5th, 2018 at 9:56 am
I like guice over sony but guice may be gone before we pick in the second round…..hell sony could be gone early second round…..
as long as we add 1 starting OG and RB to the offense and add dline and CB depth to the defense im fine…..
#NOEXCUSESIN2018!!!!!….GO BUCS!!!!
April 5th, 2018 at 10:00 am
Too often General Managers have place all their chips on one player. I would think it would be a safer bet to trade down and spread the deck to multiple picks.
April 5th, 2018 at 10:04 am
Joe you are 100% spot on.
I don’t say that often haha
April 5th, 2018 at 10:14 am
Boyd Dowler strongly disagrees.
April 5th, 2018 at 10:20 am
Ha! There’s a blast from the past.
April 5th, 2018 at 10:20 am
How does this guy Joe have his own site. What a moron. Offensive line and defensive line change everything and are the most important part of every team. You think any RB outside of Barry Sanders is going to have long term success without a good line? Come on man. You know this!
April 5th, 2018 at 10:21 am
Uh, oh! 🙂
April 5th, 2018 at 10:25 am
Joe has never seen the following in the hundreds (thousands?) of football games he has watched:
A guard intercept a pass and seal a win with a pick-six.
A guard throw a touchdown pass to turn a game around.
A guard sack a quarterback to kill a drive.
A guard break a tackle and run 30 yards for a game-winning score.
A guard lead a team on a 90-yard drive with no timeouts with two minutes left to win a game.
If you have witnessed a guard do any of the above, can you provide a link to the video?
April 5th, 2018 at 10:38 am
STICK TO THE PLAN, MR. LICHT.
2018 is the offseason of trench warfare.
Nelson at 7
Young DE in round 2
FIX THE TRENCHES, FIX THE BUCS!!
April 5th, 2018 at 10:38 am
Macabee..I like your thinking there pal!!
April 5th, 2018 at 10:50 am
I was reading an article the other day. I wish I could remember where it was from. It was talking about are need at running back. Are running backs gained the 2nd fewest yards before contact. But it said are offensive line was ranked 10 in run blocking using that same metric as how many yards before the running back got contact. They were basically saying are offensive line was opening holes. Just are running backs weren’t hitting the right lanes and were slow going through the holes and lacked burst. So if this info is common knowledge to the coaches I would think we would pass on Nelson. And try to trade back to get are pick at the second best runningback.
April 5th, 2018 at 10:51 am
You all clearly didn’t watch Sweezy and Evan Smith nearly get Jameis and our RBs killed for a majority of last season if you don’t think a guard can change a game.
The issue is ultimately this roster has way too many holes still (RB, G, CB, S) and they still should continue to draft/develop on the lines.
April 5th, 2018 at 10:54 am
I am just proud of this Joe for finally writing a article that doesn’t say the Bucs cant develop a cornerback. But then again he did say not to draft Nelson which is the other thing he says pretty much daily.
April 5th, 2018 at 11:24 am
Joe
Football is still a team sport. It’s a lot easier to break open a game with a TD pass or a 30 yard run if someone was there to block for you and give you the time and space to “break open the game”.
I get nervous in sports discussions about football or hockey…big team sports…where we focus too much on how much an INDIVIDUAL is going to change things.
In hockey you MUST have a great goalie and in football it’s the QB. But after that you need an entire Team to play in front of these guys.
The greatest goalie in the NHL is not that good if his team consistently leaves guys unguarded in front of the net or give up bunches of odd man rushes.
Same in football. Without a good OL in front of him even great talents at QB become mere mortals and may turn in some game breaking plays but can’t do enough consistently to produce enough wins. Can you say Jameis Winston?
Andrew Luck?
Jameis is a game changer..remember out last game? But he can’t do it all by himself and some “stud’ DB can’t stand out with zero pass rush and very little run defense.
So which is more important? DJAX is a game breaker…say he gets two TD passes and “breaks the game open”. But it’s the NFL and the other teams have game breakers as well. We get to the 4th quarter and crunch time…if we’re losing yeah we want that game breaker…but if we’re winning we’d simply like to control the ball with a stout OL and decent RB.
April 5th, 2018 at 11:32 am
Joe is not anti-Quenton Nelson. In fact Joe had stated in a previous Ira Kaufman Podcast that if the Bucs somehow got Le’Veon Bell, then Joe would be all in on drafting Nelson.
Joe just thinks at No. 7, given the holes on the roster, you need to draft a game-changer there. Hopefully, we won’t see the Bucs draft in the top ten for a long, long time.
Besides, Joe also thinks Will Hernandez and Isiah Wynn are fine guards as well.
April 5th, 2018 at 12:08 pm
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Sony could do it all in college too … except start ahead of Nick Chubb … just saying.
**********
April 5th, 2018 at 12:12 pm
Kerry Jenkins sure changed the Bucs O-Line in that Super Bowl run.
If Nelson is there, take him. He is a rare talent to put with Marpet & Jensen. Would there be a better interior line than those three?
April 5th, 2018 at 12:12 pm
Joe Says:
April 5th, 2018 at 11:32 am
Joe just thinks at No. 7, given the holes on the roster, you need to draft a game-changer there.
_______________________________________________________________
I have a question for you Joe. Say the big three are gone, and we can’t find a partner to trade back with. Who do you think a “game changer” is that is worthy of a pick at #7? There is not wrong answer here, you are just around the Bucs more than most and I value your opinion. Personally I like James a lot, but a lot of people seem to think SS @ 7 is insane.
April 5th, 2018 at 12:14 pm
Football is won with large, angry men fighting for inches of turf. The pretty boys just get the credit,
April 5th, 2018 at 12:27 pm
So Joe, the 1990’s Cowboys didn’t win 3 Super Bowls by having the most dominant O-line of that Era?
What about the difference between the 2015 Bucs running game versus 2016 when the only major difference was Logan Mankins? That sure did change our team.
Maybe lay off the Jim Beam for a while and you’re memory would improve.
April 5th, 2018 at 12:31 pm
*****************
BucFanFromOhio,
If the big 3 areal gone AND no trade-down is available, I’d rank the “game-changing prospects” as:
1a – 1c. Denzel Ward/Minkah Fitzpatrick/Derwin James
4. Viti Vea
5. Marcus Davenport
That’s it … and I’d be fine with Ward/Minkah/Derwin at #7 if that’s the best we can do … I’d be very disappointed with Vea or Davenport though.
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April 5th, 2018 at 12:42 pm
Thx NFLNut. I agree in the disappointment if Vea is the pick. Even watching his highlights I don’t see what all the hype is about.
April 5th, 2018 at 12:43 pm
If Nelson is on the board at number7,run Roger Goodell ‘s ass over and turn the card in!!!starts in the trenches,running back class is deep again this year so you will still get one in rounds 2to3!
April 5th, 2018 at 12:54 pm
Joe cmon man, bringing up wynn and Hernandez who are late 1st rounders. Thats where the bucs shpuld get their RB after they get Nelson.
April 5th, 2018 at 2:25 pm
**************
MACABEE … GREAT POST!
Personally, I think the Giants stay at #2 and draft a QB though … I think the Bills move up to #4 as Saquon isn’t worth the massive package of picks Buffalo will give Cleveland for that 4th pick.
I still have it:
Picks 1-4: QB
Broncos #5: Chubb or Nelson
Colts #6: Nelson or Chubb or Saquon
Bucs #7: Saquon or Chubb or Nelson
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April 5th, 2018 at 3:41 pm
So Joe doesn’t think physically dominating players are important to football games.
Whatever dude it’s your site. Just hope the front office disagrees.
April 5th, 2018 at 3:48 pm
But to Joes point if we walk away from the draft with Davenport, Michael and Hernandez I’ll be ecstatic.
But it’s very confusing to say you will pass on Nelson. Sure if you got this trade down offer I’m game. But to pass on Nelson cause you don’t think physically dominating players change games is just something I will never ever agree with…….IMO the big guys up do the most to impact games.
April 5th, 2018 at 5:12 pm
Joe- regarding your requesting video of a guard being a game changer:
https://youtu.be/m834LXXuzVs
April 5th, 2018 at 5:23 pm
Joe #2 doesn’t value Interior Offensive line play. Despite it being one of the most important aspects of the game.
April 5th, 2018 at 5:37 pm
Like I said yesterday … ask Emmitt Smith if guards can be game-changers … they can!
April 5th, 2018 at 5:41 pm
WATCH THIS VIDEO … IT’S WORTH IT …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BOdxMqmWO3Q
April 5th, 2018 at 5:44 pm
QUENTON NELSON … LARRY ALLEN 2.0? IF WE GET HIM, I SURE HOPE SO!
https://247sports.com/nfl/chicago-bears/Bolt/Quenton-Nelson-gets-compared-to-to-Steve-Hutchinson-and-Larry-Allen-115389516
April 5th, 2018 at 6:48 pm
Alan nice video. Larry Allen gets all the credit from the announcers, deservedly so. But you can rewatch that drive and if you focus on the RG he is blasting his guy off the ball and throwing his body around.
You can then rewatch it and focus on the Center.
The clip is an example of interior lineman changing a game. Maybe Joe can watch and see it for the first time in his life. Or maybe he will say that it was only Emmit Smith making the difference…….It can be an opinion thing but in this case I will take John Maddens opinion that a Guard can change a game.
April 5th, 2018 at 7:06 pm
Looking forward to macabeebucsfan.com in the near future.
April 5th, 2018 at 7:35 pm
miht not alwaya agree with joe but i here forsure… guards are easy to find. All pro guards hit FA all the time haha… ever see a safety in his prime hit free agency on the regular? Seahawks want 2 first for earl thomas and he is 29! Hello Derwin James 🙂