Davenport > Chubb?
April 6th, 2018
Big-time projection.
Joe has long been a proponent of trading down in this year’s draft.
And it seems the Football Outsiders crowd agrees with Joe.
Now the following is a bunch of statistical debris, but Joe trusts the Football Outsiders people. They make the case, per their research, that Marcus Davenport of University of Texas-San Antonio projects to be a slightly better pro than North Carolina State’s Bradley Chubb, who will make the Bucs very fortunate if he is still on the board at No. 7.
Nathan Forster of BSPN has the details.
SackSEER’s numbers give Davenport just the slightest edge over the more highly touted Chubb. As Clay Matthews and his 4.5 career college sacks can tell you, success at the edge rusher position can often be more about potential than production. Davenport shows statistical signs that he could be ready to similarly blossom in the NFL.
For one, Davenport had a strong combine workout, running the 40-yard dash in a blistering 4.58 seconds with a strong broad jump. Davenport also had a slightly above-average passes defensed rate. For a player slated to go in the teens (instead of the top five), Davenport sure looks impressive.
Football Outsiders compares Davenport to Osi Umenyiora and they project Davenport to have 26 sacks through his first five seasons. Of the defensive ends in the draft, Football Outsiders projects Davenport as the best prospect followed by Chubb and Harold Landry of Boston College.
Joe has been pushing for Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht to trade down with a quarterback-hungry team and then, in theory, the Bucs could land Davenport, Will Hernandez or Isiah Wynn for those who suffer unfortunate slip-ups in their dreams at night over guards, and running back Sony Michel.
That’s a haul.
April 6th, 2018 at 8:33 am
I am loving the qb craze this year. Best players to be had at 5-10 and high quality guys still in 10-20 plus range. Trade down scenario would be amazing for the bucs as they really need 3 starter from this draft but 4 would be huge based on their big holes …
All these teams seem to be going crazy for qbs that really don’t impress me But hey when you are desperate you do desperate things.
April 6th, 2018 at 8:34 am
Chubb is going to be a difference maker and NFL MVP/Defensive MVP type of player and Davenport is going to be a solid NFL player….definitely if Nelson not there the bucs should trade down…..but also why are they not going after some FA backend guys unless they waiting for draft, but William Gay would have been a solid addition to the bucs backend
April 6th, 2018 at 8:35 am
I would love Davenport at number seven. Then pick up your cornerback or running back in the second round. Or we can make a trade with Philadelphia for a Ronald Darby for our next year’s third round pick and sign him to the CB money that Grimes is being paid. If we could draft Davenport and Guise or Sony Micheal, then make a trade for Darby our entire off-season would be an A- plus.
April 6th, 2018 at 8:39 am
Outside of the big three, I’m flipping a coin for Davenport or Vea at seven, if a King’s ransom isn’t to be had for a trade down.
We need trench warfare! Youth on the trenches, with talent, please!
April 6th, 2018 at 8:51 am
Why is nobody talking about Harold Landry? Have the Joes never heard of him?!
April 6th, 2018 at 8:57 am
After getting JPP I think I would rather see them trade down and get Landry or Davenport than take Chubb at 7. They can afford to bet on potential a little bit more now.
April 6th, 2018 at 9:04 am
It would be hard to pass on Chubb at 7 folks. But if he’s gone, I would definitely concur with Joe. Getting 2 for 1 would surely help us tremendously. Yes, we do need another DE. Curry is no JPP. He is sporadic and we need another quality pass rusher. In that trade down senario, we could pick up a quality DE, RB, and Guard. Now that would be a grand steal for the Bucs.
April 6th, 2018 at 9:19 am
Spell check Joe…. s/b Isaiah Wynn not Isiah Wynn
April 6th, 2018 at 9:21 am
Yup
I believe Davenport is way better than Chubb
April 6th, 2018 at 9:29 am
If there’s one thing I’ve learned by watching the past number of SB winners, it’s that there’s no such thing as enough quality pass rushers. If we’re in position to get either Chubb or Davenport I say get them.
April 6th, 2018 at 9:35 am
Too much risk for any of these end rushers not named Chubb to be using a 1st rd pick on one of them. This is not a good crop of edge rushers – especially if you are looking for a true 4-3 DE.
Davenport/Landry/Key are the best of the bunch – and every one of them is more suited for OLB in a 3-4 scheme. All have potential to be good NFL players – but the reason its just “potential” and/or they need to be “projected” in a certain role – is because there’s not enough showing on tape to prove they can actually do it.
Meanwhile there’s a pretty good crop of DTs this year and multiple guys will carry legit 1st round grades – because their tape shows them earning those high grades with their play.
So if any high picks are used on DL this year (I’m all for it btw) – then it needs to be within the strength of this draft which is DTs. Not reaching for pass rushers that don’t fit your scheme very well.
There will be a better crop of DEs coming out next year to pick from than what’s available this year.
JPP, Spence, Curry and Gholston are gonna have to do for now. Which sounds a lot better than what we were fielding last year just writing it.
I’m still scratching my head over keeping Gholston for $6.5M when we had a free out. Run stopper DEs who get 0>2 sacks per year with lots of snaps can certainly be had for a LOT less than $6.5M. That’s why you wisely put the free out after 1-2 year(s) into the bigger deals that you make in most cases – so if the player grossly under-performs, you aren’t stuck paying them big bucks for small production. Gholston is a clear case of “under-performing” vs his contract. Why go to the trouble of negotiating for the free out after one year as part of the deal (likely giving in on something about the deal in return) – if you are not going to USE the free out? Somebody help me try to make sense of this decision to keep Gholston at that high of a salary.
April 6th, 2018 at 9:35 am
Thank you OneBucPerson. It truly befuddles me Buc fans don’t realize this. They really do think we have enough. We don’t. Your Defensive line pressure will win you a lot of 3 to 7 point games. A lot of them.
April 6th, 2018 at 9:42 am
No, never heard of him. Never heard of his college. Never heard of his conference. Never heard of the sport he plays in — he’s a gymnast, right? smh
Let’s just say Joe doesn’t go to the combine or owners meetings just to drink expensive cocktails.
April 6th, 2018 at 9:42 am
I was all for drafting Davenport but after looking at the numbers he posted other than the 40, his short area quickness is below average.
Look it up, I believe is 3 cone drill was in the 49th percentile along with his 20 yard shuttle. He lacks explosiveness and his 40 leads you to believe otherwise. I’ll see him being a big bust.
April 6th, 2018 at 9:43 am
I was all for drafting Davenport but after looking at the numbers he posted other than the 40, his short area quickness is below average.
Look it up, I believe is 3 cone drill was in the 49th percentile along with his 20 yard shuttle. He lacks explosiveness and his 40 leads you to believe otherwise. I see him being a big bust.
April 6th, 2018 at 9:47 am
Buc4life
Do u really want Ronald Darby hanging out with Jameis all the time? This is a bad idea. Think about it….
April 6th, 2018 at 9:50 am
No what the combine really is? An excuse for these media guys to not do proper research on the players.
Do they really think watching 2 games and a combine is enough to properly rank these players?
April 6th, 2018 at 9:51 am
I have to say, anyone suggesting we trade away more picks is not thinking things through.
April 6th, 2018 at 9:58 am
Harold Landry is a better prospect IMO. But I’d be ok with Davenport in a trade back.
and before anyone criticizes Landry’s size at 6’3 252…..know that Von Miller and Demarcus Lawrence are also 6’3 250…so theres that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfFSWrbxRC8
April 6th, 2018 at 10:05 am
I’d prefer Davenport over any corner or safety. Dont think Davenport is > Chubb but it wouldnt be first time I was wrong. Keep getting pass rushing D linemen tho!!
April 6th, 2018 at 10:08 am
I mentioned this same scenario several weeks ago. The Bills could be that trade partner with their #12 pick. Let’s hope this is how it goes. Grab Michel with our 2nd pick if he’s still there or use our newly acquired picks from Bills to move back into bottom of the 1st if we feel that strong about Michel but I think personally I would stand pat since we are the 6th pick 2nd round anyway. What I’m worried about is that all the sought after QB’s will be gone before #7 pick and we won’t find a trade partner but the good news would be one of the top three ranked players not QB’s would be there. Too bad we didn’t have #6 pick cause then it would be a sure bet we could trade back and accumulate more picks.
April 6th, 2018 at 10:10 am
SteelStud Buc
You could be right, but I would hope that they’ve both have grown up and Jameis can’t be the leader of our team if he’s following around someone else. I just want the best 11 players on defense and Darby would be our best CB if we could get him for a 3rd round pick in next year’s draft.
April 6th, 2018 at 10:15 am
Trading down is great, but it requires a motivated partner. Why would any team want to trade up to the Bucs spot at 7. Generally speaking the chatter has been the rush on QBs. Well the Bucs are not after a QB, nor is Chicago. The 49ers and Oakland also appear set. So any trade up is more likely to be made with a team either before, to get in front of IND, or after the Bucs because it would be cheaper. Now if one or two of the big 3 should fall to the Bucs, it appears that the Bucs would grab him and not be willing to trade. Therefore a Bucs trade down, despite our desires, is highly unlikely because there is no trading partner.
April 6th, 2018 at 10:18 am
Perhaps this is why we should truly think about going to a 1 gap 3/4 defense.
Our strength is at LB and we have a few (including Spence who IMO is miscast as a DE) that could do the job!!!. . . The more I think about that , the more I like it.
Thoughts???
April 6th, 2018 at 11:04 am
If the big 3 non-QB’s are gone (B.Chubb/Nelson/Barkley)…I’m all for rolling the dice on being able to sandwich the Edwards brothers between a RB in the 2nd rd. (Good bet that one of Jones II, Michel or N.Chubb will be there @ 38 & Terrell is there at 102)
Tremaine @ 19 & already an athletic freak…6’5″ 255lbs – 34 1/2in arms with a 4.55 40…Let him eat & fill out his man body over next 2-3yrs…Your looking at a 275-280lb monster that will blossom into 10+sack/yr – hand in the ground edge rusher over the 1st contract.
Terrell projects as a starter level SS in time, but an immediate rotational SS & ST contributor.. (an upgrade over Conte by wk 6)
(Getting both will help them adjust to the league & PRO responsibilities…While allowing Edmunds family group to get deeply connected to the Tampa community. Long-term / big picture view)
April 6th, 2018 at 11:26 am
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I’ve said all along that I do not believe Chubb is an ELITE defensive end prospect, just the best DE in this draft …
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April 6th, 2018 at 12:07 pm
It is not that simple to “trade down and land Davenport”.
It assumes we find a trade partner, and then get a good deal as far as extra picks goes. Then, last and not least, it assumes Davenport will be there, and there are no guarantees he will be.
Davenport is far from under the Radar.
April 6th, 2018 at 12:49 pm
Unfortunate slip ups in their dreams over guards (lol)
I’m Ira’s generation so 25 year old Brigitte Bardot maybe, not guards
April 6th, 2018 at 1:04 pm
Davenport had a bad meeting with the Bucs. So do not get your hopes up.
April 6th, 2018 at 1:10 pm
There is also talk that Chubb would be a wasted pick at #7(but must pick him if he is there at #7) because DE never do good their first year in the NFL and he would not be playing all three downs unless one of the other DE get hurt.
April 6th, 2018 at 1:18 pm
Go watch Davenport’s film. He’s impressive and versatile. I’d rather swing and miss trying to find an impact player on the edge than take a guy that will be a good guard but never an impact player.
April 6th, 2018 at 2:15 pm
I’d be down for Davenport if we traded down. Bucs drafting first round DEs scare me. If we draft Davenport, at least we will get more picks to go with it. Also don’t feel we need Chubb soo badley as before with JPP, Curry, Noah, and Gholston. But Davenport would make a sick ass rotation and possible future star DE. Might I add he plays Sasquatch in the Jack Links’s Beef Jerky commercials.
April 6th, 2018 at 3:18 pm
SOEbuc Says:
Might I add he plays Sasquatch in the Jack Links’s Beef Jerky commercials.
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Damnit SOEbuc, you got me on this one!
April 6th, 2018 at 3:43 pm
I prefer Landry. Bucs have enough big DEs. SPEED kills!!
April 6th, 2018 at 4:57 pm
People who say Offensive lineman aren’t impact players are completely ignorant about football. An All Pro Guard means your center can get to the next level. New Englands DT Malcolm Brown was inside shade over Philadelphia’s Center. Philadelphia’s All Pro Offebsive guard was able to reach block Brown and turn him, allowing for a massive hole and for the Eagles terrific center to reach the second level and block the LB, allowing fo Blount, a good but definitely not All World HOF RB, to score a TD without being touched until he reached the end zone 21 yards later. It was the guard and center play that was key to this score. But hey, keep ignorantly claiming that OG don’t have an impact. I bet you Bellicheck thinks the Pro Bowl Guard Brooks had an impact on that play as he was able to reach block and turn his first round and good Nose Tackle who was inside shaded over the center. With the OL splits that means that the Eagles Pro Bowl Guard had to block a very good 1 technique guy in Brown who was given a three yard head start to blow up the A gap.
April 6th, 2018 at 4:58 pm
Here is an argument we haven’t had because we believe it to be impossible.
What if there is a real QB run and 2 of the big three are available.
Will that start a war between supporters of those who are available. Certainly would put more pressure on Licht. Would you take Chubb or Barkley or Nelson if all three were on the board.
We agree on the big three if one of them is available…what if two or more last?
April 6th, 2018 at 10:35 pm
That would be a nice “problem” to have SPBF….
April 7th, 2018 at 4:23 am
NFL Fantasy Draft Trade
New England
1st Round 7 (Baker Mayfield-QB)
Dexter Jackson-WR
Tampa Bay
1st Round 23 (Joshua Jackson-CB) or (Harold Landry-DE) or (Sam Hubbard-DE)
1st-Round 31 ( D.J. Moore-WR) or (Courtland Sutton-WR) or (Joshua Jackson CB) or (James Daniels-C)
2nd Round 38 (Ronald Jones-RB) or (Calivn RIdley-WR) or (Will Hernandez-G) or (Connor WIlliam OT)
2nd Round 43 (Donte Jackson CB) or (Mike Hughes- CB) or (Derrius Guice-RB) or (Dorance Armstrong DE)
2nd Round 63 (WR/CB/RB/OL/DE)