The Bucs’ Best Bait
April 1st, 2018
Remember the Jason Licht laser-focused move to end Day 2 of the 2017 NFL Draft?
If you don’t, you should.
As the wee hours approached and Round 3 was about to end, before Rounds 4 through 7 the following day, Licht traded up with the Jets to score the last pick of the third round and select linebacker Kendell Beckwith.
Scoreboard!!
Still-injured Beckwith had a near miraculously fast recovery from ACL surgery and was ready to play on opening day. The rookie flashed brilliance and was a darn good player, though his time a fill-in pass rusher is film you want to burn.
The point here is having the first or last pick on any day of the draft is a special commodity. If you own it, or something close to it, a general manager is going to panic and want to trade for it to get their guy.
As a result of the recent for defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul, the Bucs now own the second pick of this year’s Day 3 of the draft, pick No. 2 of the fourth-round.
Chad Reuter of NFL.com suggests dealing that pick with the Bucs’ second round pick will be enough for Tampa Bay to get back into Round 1 and leave with the running back of their dreams. In fact, Reuter ranks this as the fifth-most sensible trade lurking in the 2018 draft.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (No. 38) to New England Patriots (No. 31) for RB Derrius Guice or RB Nick Chubb
The Patriots are usually willing trade partners in the draft, and the Buccaneers are in desperate need of a No. 1 running back following the departure of Doug Martin. Philadelphia might be tempted to pick Guice if he’s available with the last pick of the first round (No. 32). There are also teams selecting early in the second round (Browns, Giants, Colts) that could be in the market for a RB if they’re not able to land Saquon Barkley early in the draft. Giving up a fourth-round pick to move back into the first round to get ahead of these teams shouldn’t be an issue for the Bucs. In fact, the team pulled off a similar deal to get Martin in 2012. If Guice is gone before the Patriots’ pick, the Bucs could still make this move to select Chubb, who is a sturdy runner with very good speed and vision. Tampa Bay’s fourth-round pick this year would be especially good trade bait, as it’s the second pick of the round (No. 102 overall).
Joe’s good with this potential deal, but remember the Bucs already dealt their third-round pick for JPP. So in this scenario, the Bucs would have dumped their third- and fourth-rounders of 2018.
If that is the plan, then the Bucs almost certainly would pick a cornerback with their No. 7 overall pick, if they don’t trade it, and that means one Joe at JoeBucsFan.com world headquarters might need time in a straitjacket.
Ahh, what fun. Just 25 more days.
Be there for Thursday’s Round 1, April 26. Arrive early. Return for Rounds 2 and 3 the following day.
April 1st, 2018 at 3:09 am
I would like this more if they traded back from #7 and got an extra day 2 pick. I dont hate the idea completely tho.
April 1st, 2018 at 4:00 am
31st overall, just like Doug Martin!
April 1st, 2018 at 4:03 am
Penny in Pewter!!! Let’s get it done!!! Go Bucs!!!
April 1st, 2018 at 4:20 am
If this is what they’re planning they should probably sign BRASHAUD BREELAND … AND … a starting SS like Tre Boston, Kenny Vaccaro or Eric Reid!!!!
April 1st, 2018 at 4:22 am
Sony Michel might be there at 38
April 1st, 2018 at 4:48 am
@NFLNut
I dont think they can afford to sign anymore starters.
April 1st, 2018 at 5:16 am
Let’s just see where Saquon Barkley will fall. If he is chosen 5th or 6th I’d be so ticked off. Hope we all think the last minute heroics to come to an outstanding 5-11 record after our final game win was worth it. # meaninglessness win.
April 1st, 2018 at 5:19 am
3rd & 4th Rnd picks very often represent key rotational players & future starters IMO. Giving up a 4th Rnd pick (packaged with a 2nd Rnd pick) to move up a few spots back into the 1st Rnd doesn’t make sense to me … unless the switch is made at the very last second with a ‘sure thing’ sitting there. Right now I don’t see any ‘sure things’ late in the 1st Rnd, but ya never know who might fall.
April 1st, 2018 at 5:40 am
Give away 2 picks just to move up 6 picks to get back into 1st round so they can get a fifth year option on a player they have no ideal will work out. If we had a later round 2nd round pick I’d say ok but to give valuable picks away on a player that would probably come to us in the top of 2nd round anyway is not good business. Stay put or trade back. All our picks are valuable at this point. Trading away all our picks to move up is for teams that have a deep bench. We need bodies.
April 1st, 2018 at 5:40 am
Joe, imagine grabbing Minkah Fitz and then landing Oliver in either the late first oe second (he’s projected anywhere from 25-45). The Buccs would immediately have a lockdown secondary. https://youtu.be/_stSvqc4gMk
April 1st, 2018 at 6:35 am
So in this mock trade our picks in the 2nd 3rd and 4th rounds are gone , I believe ..? That would be 2 players instead of 4.. those 2 picks better start and be great! This draft should be interesting . As TB fans this yr is difficult to predict what we will do. If we stay put at 7 I like any of the 3..barkley, Chubb, Nelson or maybe james.
April 1st, 2018 at 6:38 am
I like the idea of trading back at 7 much better…..I don’t like the thought of losing our 4th round pick….
Now, I would trade 6th & 7th round picks for a Cuban sandwich.
There are still players that will be available in FA after the draft….we could easily pick up a RB, CB, or S.
April 1st, 2018 at 6:51 am
I could care less how they do it but if they can use all picks to get 3 starters at 3 biggest need positions then the overall team depth is so much better :
Db , running back and strong safety (probably in that order of holes )
Sorry, but you can get away with an average second guard , if you already have a stud offensive guard on the other side and a mauler for a center .
Benenoch, sweezy and smith fight it out for other guard spot
April 1st, 2018 at 6:58 am
I hope someone takes Nelson before us so we don’t have to make that decision and take guard at 7. Don’t get me wrong Nelson is a stud.
However. They have highest paid center and are about to spend around 13-15 on Donovan smith (Nate soldier who is good/not great just got deal for highest paid tackle at 15 and he is very similar to Donovan ) and around 8-10 per on marpet which is rate for above average guard – prolly closer to 10
A lot of money invested in one position group. Dallas Cowboys has gotten away with it for a few years but their studs are coming up for contracts shortly and someone will have to go.
April 1st, 2018 at 7:04 am
I agree bucs will be active at /around / after draft.
Breeland would be cheap. All the safeties (we need strong) are on hold for time being which is huge They will come cheap as well
The bucs have 15 mil left which around 8 mil goes to draft picks so they could possibly get it done. However, gholston could be an easy bye bye fall guy and free up another 7 mil.
April 1st, 2018 at 7:05 am
Giving up picks is a bad idea especially since we already gave up the 7th pick in 3rd round. There are several potential solid starters early in 3rd round especially DB’s, that we will be passing on. Also, I would expect the Bucs to sit at 7 and wait to see who is available before trading down. If Nelson and B Chubb are available we have to stick with pick. Other than those two, move out if we can and get more picks.
April 1st, 2018 at 7:16 am
Mike
I agree. Licht needs to take a xanax or 3 on draft day. His anxiety is apparent. Always trading up for guys who just might stilll be there at his pick. Never know obviously but I’d be willing to bet Marpet, Beckwith, and Aguayo would have been there. Also the pick in the 3rd round was the 5th overall. Teams with the same records alternate picks in each round. As much as I love the draft I’d love if he traded back a couple times. The “one guy away” trade up routine is old and stale. Stand pat, if your guy gets drafted ahead of your pick then trade back if you can. Do it, do it
April 1st, 2018 at 7:29 am
@Joey since the market is extremely slow /non existent for the two players I think they would be happy to sign 1 year prove it deals. At least Eric Reid should be.
April 1st, 2018 at 7:59 am
Berkley or bust out
April 1st, 2018 at 8:01 am
Just remember we gained an instant impact starter at a position of need in JPP. You are in no way guaranteed that in the draft so in my mind this was a great trade.
April 1st, 2018 at 8:04 am
Bird, because we’re going to have to pay Marpet, Smith, and Jensen is the very reason you would want to draft Nelson. You’d be getting a pro bowl guard on a five year rookie deal, that’s cheap!
April 1st, 2018 at 8:06 am
Those wanting Barkley are setting themselves up to be super ticked when the Bucs do not take him. Gonna be Dalvin Cook all over again.
I would be against the trade mentioned above, unless we pick up a couple day 2 picks by trading down from 7.
April 1st, 2018 at 8:09 am
darin, aguayo would have been there. Not the others.
April 1st, 2018 at 8:11 am
Trade up….trade down. We have one player remaining from the 2014 draft and zero starters from the 2016 draft. Literally about a 75% chance the pick flames out.
April 1st, 2018 at 8:15 am
Sony and Guice will likely both be off the board by #31. We don’t have enough without including multiple late rd picks to get up high enough in the 1st for either
The only way either becomes a Buccaneer is if we trade down from #7 in the 1st rd and then select RB with our newly acquired mid 1st rd pick. Which makes a lot more sense than trying to trade up for them from the high 2nd.
1. RB Michel/Guice
2. OG best available -Hernandez/Price/Wynn/Ragnow
2. CB – best available – Mike Hughes/Jaire Alexander/Donte Jackson
3. DL – Best available – Okoronkwo/Josh Sweat/Tim Settle/Rasheem Green
April 1st, 2018 at 8:19 am
Licht has a strong physical resemblance to a young Hugh Culverhouse
April 1st, 2018 at 8:22 am
With the new helmet hit rule James will be kicked out of every game 😲
April 1st, 2018 at 8:39 am
The new helmet rule is ,IMO, more about legal protection of the NFL going forward than anything else, It will be IMPOSSIBLE to enforce evenly. When two men brace for collision their heads will 90% of the time be approximately at the same height above the ground when impact occurs regardless of intent.
April 1st, 2018 at 8:40 am
Swedish has a fat contract too, 6.5 million, that’s more than enough to grab a Safety and CB, just don’t know when we can cut the guy, he’s like a STD that you can’t get rid off, Joe knows what I mean lol
April 1st, 2018 at 8:40 am
Sweezy not Swedish
April 1st, 2018 at 8:47 am
I would not trade back up.to draft an average running back
April 1st, 2018 at 9:22 am
Problem is we have 2 zillion holes
April 1st, 2018 at 9:22 am
Guys we need to improve the secondary first. It needs to be the priority. It’s awful like I said quarterbacks are playing back yard thanksgiving day family football against us. Case Keenum threw for 400 yards on us!!! We need to use the 7th pick on the best either corner or safety. Then use a 2nd round pick on vice versa
If Nelson Chubb and Barkley are gone and the bucs don’t improve the secondary in the first round it will be more of the same next year
It won’t matter if it’s 3rd and 1 or 3rd and 10 teams will throw on us at will
April 1st, 2018 at 9:24 am
They need to trade up and get Barkley or improve the back end with starters if it’s not an option and Nelson chubb and Barkley are gone
April 1st, 2018 at 10:45 am
@Bonzai…
🙂 Sure. Saquon is just like Dalvin Cook, and @DestinJohnny is the brightest guy on here, and @Tmaxx is the happiest guy on JBF. Cook and Barkley are not even at all the same build, 25 pounds difference between them, Cook was an absolute PUNK off the field, Cook had major problems reading/picking up the blitz in pass pro at FSU and in his rookie year in NF, while he can catch he can’t catch as smoothly while reading the play ahead….on and on and on. At least be objective about it.
It’s always the ones that resent the known versatility and outperformance of talent of Barkley, that they just want to sully the waters for whatever given reason just because they “hear” about a given player so often in the process leading up to the draft.
And for those that feel that Guice, Chubb, Michel…are somehow in the same ballpark as SA-QUON, dunno what to tell all y’all anymore.
25 days till the Saquon Sweepstakes!!
Go Bucs!
April 1st, 2018 at 10:48 am
There you go @Alan!! There you go. Glad to have you onboard the insurgency! We need all we can get, to get Licht on that same track too, which I believe he is.
Go Bucs! Go Bold! Go Barkley! Go Primetime!
April 1st, 2018 at 11:12 am
Everybody here is so enamored with Barkley. But let me remind you..Historically Penn St running backs have not fared well going at the top of the drafts. Look it up for yourselves. There are at least 5 running backs in this yrs draft who are going to be real good given a decent O line. I’d trade down and get 2 for 1 if we can find a partner. this would put us back to 3 picks in our 1st 3 rds. But now if Chubb is there at 7, you gotta take him.
April 1st, 2018 at 11:40 am
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JOEYPOPPEMS,
I’d like someone to detail EXACTLY how much cap space the Bucs have remaining, as the reports still widely vary, but I believe the last that Jenna Laine at ESPN reported, was that the Bucs had “around $20mil” of space when they signed Jensen, and Jensen got $10.5, so if we still have $9.5mil left that should be enough for a #2 CB and a starting SS … unless, Jenna wasn’t factoring in our draft picks into that equation, at which point, we’d be maxed out.
I sure hope we’re not maxed out though, as I don’t think there’s any way Licht can draft a starting RB, #2 CB, starting SS, backup DT, backup OG, BACKUP CB AND backup OT in this draft alone, even though we do have 7 picks …
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April 1st, 2018 at 11:55 am
NFLNUT –
No $ left. We are in fact over the cap as it currently sits on paper once you add $8M for the rookie pool and $1M in dead cap space.
April 1st, 2018 at 12:24 pm
The Bills really like Mayfield. The laws of math say that if Chubb, Barkley and Nelson are gone, Mayfield or another big 4 QB is still there. Trade down for 12 and 22. Two linebackers, wr and McGlinchy go 8-11 and we get bet DB or Vea at 12 and have a choice of Wynn, rb2, Williams, db3 or db4 at 22.
Nevertheless, at the risk of ruining everyboday’s fun, we’re pretty much locked in to Barkley. QBs are going 1-4. Look at Cleveland’s visit list; it’s full of guys who’ll go 10-15. They’re already planning the Buffalo tradedown. Elway and Ballard are great GMs who will take the long term best value, Nelson and Chubb respectively. We get the most immediately valuable player in the draft, Barkley. Fans of teams that took QBs are happy, but Indy, NYG, Cleveland, Denver and we Buccaneers got the best outcomes, in that order imho.
April 1st, 2018 at 12:42 pm
No way I’d give up 38 & 102 to move up to 31. The player you take at 38 may be the same guy you’d take at 31. That 102 player will most likely have a 3rd round grade since teams reach for players all the time. I would probably look to trade back from 38 to acquire more draft capital unless a top 25 talent is still on the board.
April 1st, 2018 at 1:58 pm
🙂 Keep singing that tune @Mike…keep singing it.
Ain’t nuthin’ but a G thang bay-bay!
Here’s to Saquon running it down everyone else’s throats. Holla!
Go Bucs!
April 1st, 2018 at 3:01 pm
While it might be tempting to grab Nelson/Guice but that would our draft. You can’t expect a 5th round or later pick to amount to anything. Our offense might be awesome but our secondary would be weak AF. We would have to score 30+ ever game just to have a chance if winning.
April 1st, 2018 at 4:33 pm
I just don’t see it making sense for us trade up in this draft, at least not in the 1st round.
This year’s draft happens to be fairly deep at many of our positions of need (RB, CB, S) – with very few of those guys being actual 1st round “sure-things”. I think betwen rounds 2 – 4, there is a very similar level of talent available, so we should be able to get good players there.
The only trade I am for is trading back- to get more picks. Getting back our 3rd rounder, or getting another 2nd and/or 4th would be great.
Might even be able to trade back a few spots in the 1st, and then use some of those extra picks to later trade up back into the end of the 1st as suggested, but I’m probably just being greedy with those dreams.
April 1st, 2018 at 4:38 pm
Gambelero- you’re making too much sense with that.
And in some ways that is my fear. Not that I don’t think Barkley is great, I just don’t think we have a good enough o-line to justify that high of a pick on a RB.
Maybe Jensen will make a huge difference, but LG and RT still seem like weak spots to me (substitute RG if Ali is playing in the left side of course).
April 1st, 2018 at 4:44 pm
The Bucs just traded Jameis Winston to the Dolphins for one of Dan Marino’s old jock straps… April fools, they would never give up that much.
April 1st, 2018 at 5:48 pm
@Gambelero, no way top 4 picks are 4 consecutive QBs. That’s what these teams would like you to believe. Barkley won’t make it past #4.
April 1st, 2018 at 6:11 pm
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Pickgrin,
Thanks for that info!
However, if that’s the case, are you saying were in a position where we NEED to cut a guy like Sweezy, or trade a guy like DJax or GMC just to be under the cap by the time the regular season starts?
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April 1st, 2018 at 6:45 pm
NFLNut – That’s why I said “on paper”. There are a few different ways to get your cap # down by small amounts. But the only way to save $4-5-6M or more in one chunk is to cut or restructure your bigger contracts.
Its hard to know exactly what the remaining amount over or under the cap # is currently because there are a # of variables. I can tell you that we are somewhere between $1M under and $3M over – but its in that range for sure.
Bottom Line is we have no more $ to spend on free agents without cutting (or restructuring) someone. Sweezy is the only realistic candidate left to cut that would be any significant savings – unless you wanted to cut Dotson or Bryan Anger to save $4.6 and/or $3M respectively.
We should have cut Gholston and his $6.5M cap hit when we had the free chance prior to March 18th IMO. He could have been brought back for 1/2 that I bet – and if someone wanted to pay him more than $3.5-4M – then that’s their problem. Have no idea why we made it ours. Now Will’s $6.5M is guaranteed this year. Buckner obviously made a strong pitch to keep Gholston – I hope coach was right and can somehow tap into this players potential and squeeze 5 or 6 sacks out of him this year to justify that cap #.
April 1st, 2018 at 9:57 pm
Pickgrin you should worry about your own money and not the Glazers. There are many ways to fit under a salary cap including extending Good players with roster bonuses which divide across the life of the contract. We don’t like doing that because it avoided salary cap hell but it’s an option. The simple fact is that this draft is strong where we are weak. No need to break the bank when we can let the draft come to us.
April 1st, 2018 at 10:26 pm
LostinPa Says:
“Pickgrin you should worry about your own money and not the Glazers…No need to break the bank when we can let the draft come to us.”
Huh??? That response doesn’t even make sense. What is it that you think I’m “worried” about? I just responded to a posed quest about where the Bucs spending was at vs the salary cap. Have no idea what you are talking about with your last sentence.
April 2nd, 2018 at 11:59 am
Let’s all hope the guice is loose in the second round.Rashad penny is too strait up and down .No leg drive,a flash in the pan!Unless Saquon Barkley drops to seven, pick for the back end and get guice in the second round..pick for guard depth or tackle at the second pick in the fourth Rd and go from there.
April 2nd, 2018 at 9:55 pm
@pickgrin it wasn’t intended as an attack. I am just not too worried about cap money as you acknowledged in the start of your post that teams have a lot of ways to manipulate the salary cap.
As for my last two sentences, I have posted several places on different articles from Joe that this draft is deep at CB, RB Safety and Guard which is where we have needs. I was trying not to repeat myself. We are in a prime spot to take BPA at one of those 4 positions with the first 2 picks of this draft (so long as one is a CB). I see CB as our only current must fill with premium which to me means first three rounds.