“World’s Best No. 3 Running Back”
March 9th, 2018
Jerick McKinnon
How the Buccaneers evaluate running backs is a mystery.
After last year’s debacle, it’s hard to know what traits are valued in a back and which ones are frowned upon.
Jacquizz Rodgers was given the game ball by Bucs coaches for his 16-carry, 83-yard performance in the Week 4 win against the Giants last year. Healthy Rodgers then received just 26 carries the rest of the season. That’s two carries a game — for a team that struggled to run the ball.
Charles Sims was “outstanding” in training camp, Dirk Koetter said, and seemed to be beloved by the team through the season. If Sims doesn’t return next week as an unrestricted free agent, then what will that say?
Doug Martin was hot garbage in 2016, and then was welcomed back by the Bucs last year, showered with massive cash and continually handed the rock despite no success. With Koetter’s job in the balance late in the season, Martin still was handed the ball. He’ll probably be out of football this year.
Peyton Barber? The Bucs’ best running back senselessly was buried on the bench until the season was out of reach.
Snoop Dog McPlaybook? The 2017 rookie in a very deep draft class at running back was cut after training camp.
That all makes the Bucs’ inevitable courtship of a running back in free agency next week a supreme riddle.
Powerful Carlos Hyde from San Francisco seems like a perfect fit for Tampa Bay, which tells Joe the Bucs probably will pass. So where do they go?
Free agent RB Jerick McKinnon looks like odd man out in Minnesota with Dalvin Cook expected back for opening day from his serious knee injury. McKinnon is kind of like a better, smaller (5-9) and younger (turning 26 in May) version of Sims. Over the last two seasons, he’s steadily averaged 3.6 yards per carry on 309 rushes with nine total. touchdowns.
ESPN Radio Twin Cities served up a great look at McKinnon. Matthew Coller breaks down how McKinnon is the “world’s best No. 3 running back” behind Cook and Latavius Murray, who the Bucs should have signed last March.
Coller explains that McKinnon wants to go to a team where he can be the man. So Joe really doesn’t see a fit for the Bucs, and Joe is leery of McKinnon being accustomed to running behind a beastly offensive line on artificial turf. Joe would pass.
Of course, how Jason Licht and Dirk Koetter see running backs is not something Joe can predict.
March 9th, 2018 at 11:18 am
That’s just it Joe, neither Licht or Koetter can see anything!
March 9th, 2018 at 11:18 am
I agree Joe. I think Carlos Hyde would be a great fit here.
March 9th, 2018 at 11:19 am
“Powerful Carlos Hyde from San Francisco seems like a perfect fit for Tampa Bay, which tells Joe the Bucs probably will pass. So where do they go?”
lol Sad that this is so true. just blowing past the possibility of signing Hyde because that fits to well..
March 9th, 2018 at 11:20 am
Mckinnon on his own is underwhelming to me. McKinnon + a good RB from the draft.. ok then we may have a backfield.
March 9th, 2018 at 11:24 am
I thought about Demarco Murray but I’m not sure hes all that much better than Peyton Barber…Remember Murray has ran behind two of the best o lines in Dallas and Tennessee….Pair Barber with a homerun threat draft pick and I think the running games will do fine provided our o-line gives them lanes to run through
March 9th, 2018 at 11:27 am
He would look good as the lead blocking back for Peyton Barber. That’s how Dirk Koetter will use him.
March 9th, 2018 at 11:33 am
are you kidding me….”Coller explains that McKinnon wants to go to a team where he can be the man. So Joe really doesn’t see a fit for the Bucs”.. Please name one team where he will have an easier way to reps than having to beat out Peyton Barber and Quiz. our Rb talent is 32nd in the league at this moment. McKinnon would be assured 40% of snaps here at a minimum even if we draft a RB in rounds 1-3.
March 9th, 2018 at 11:39 am
Latavius sucks imo.
Same YPC as Peyton Barber behind a much much better run blocking line than ours.
Also McKinnon is much more valuable than Murray. Murray is a stiff upright runner who doesn’t make a lot of plays. McKinnon can bust some big gains and is valuable in the passing game
March 9th, 2018 at 11:47 am
#Repost
Sign (FA)
• Andrew Norwell | G | Age:26 | Height | 6-6. Weight | 325
Draft:
• Quenton Nelson | G | Age:21 | Height | 6-5. Weight | 330
• Frank Ragnow | G/C | Age:21 | Height | 6-5. Weight | 317
New Improved Interior
LG Andrew Norwell | Caleb Benenoch
C Ali Marpet | Joe Hawley
RG Quenton Nelson | Frank Ragnow
Now that you’ve taken care of your interior offensive line for the next 5plus years. You can insert any capable scat or power back and net the desired results.
Potential Cap Casualty Candidate
• Demarco Murray (Age:30)
Free- Agents
• Isaiah Crowell (Age:25)
• Jeremy Hill (Age:25)
• Jerick McKinnon (Age:25)
• Dion Lewis (Age:27)
2018 Draft Picks
• Kerryon Johnson, Auburn
• Ronald Jones II, US
• Jaylen Samuels, N.C. Stat
• Kalen Ballage, Arizona State
• Martez Carter, RB, Grambling State
Honorable Mention: Royce Freeman, Nyheim Hines
2018 Undrafted Free Agents
• Ralph Webb, RB, Vanderbilt
• Ito Smith, RB, Southern Miss
• Lavon Coleman, RB, Washington
• Kamryn Pettway*, RB, Auburn
2018 Potential Running Back Depth Chart
RB Kalen Ballage | Peyton Barber
RB Demarco Murray | Isaiah Crowell
With an upgraded interior offensive line; just plug-in play.
#TrenchWareFare
#ControlTheLineOfScrimmage
March 9th, 2018 at 11:48 am
“Joe would pass”
What is wrong with our offensive line? Never wrote anything was wrong with it. But it’s not the Vikings’. –Joe I’ve been hearing frequently that we have a top half O-line with a stud left tackle (top 10 on the Kaufman podcast), stud center, above average right tackle, ???? You never heard that on the podcast. Above average right tackle? Stud center? What was said about D. Smith is that the Bucs view him in that top-10 range.–Joe
Glad you aren’t Licht here. Watch his film and you have no doubt just how much of an upgrade he would be to this team.
No comparison to Sims. Yeh, he’s 3″ shorter and 5 pounds lighter, but he’s massively stronger, measurably faster, less injured, better runner and receiver (he makes tougher catches), a way better athlete and football player. Plus he has an ascending pathway versus what Sims has shown.
I don’t think the Bucs will sign him, because I would bet they will resign Sims as the running back off season acquisition.
March 9th, 2018 at 11:56 am
Cant everyone see the issue? The problem is the people picking the players and even worse the people picking who plays on Sundays.
Some simple examples:
Martin over Barber
Baker over McDonald
Smith over Pamphile
Hump over Godwin
Conte/Ward over Tandy
and it goes on and on.
So we cant pick the right players, Baker, Johnson x2, Collins, Ward, Mcplaybook, Kenny Bell, VH3, Folk, Aguayo and when we do get decent players we keep them on the bench Barber, McDonald, Pamphile, Godwin, Tandy.
March 9th, 2018 at 12:01 pm
It’s really quite simple… Dirk Koetter values pass protection over running ability. How’s that working out?
March 9th, 2018 at 12:10 pm
We have issues as an organization
March 9th, 2018 at 12:12 pm
Contingencies Plans @ Left Guard
• Zach Fulton G (Age:26) 6-5 316
• Senio Kelemete C/G (Age:27) 6-4 300
• James Hurst G/T (Age:26) 6-5 317
• Greg Robinson G/T (Age:25) 6-5 332
Honorable Mention: Matt Slauson
March 9th, 2018 at 12:12 pm
*
March 9th, 2018 at 12:16 pm
Can’t see Steelers letting Chris Hubbard walk – but if they do; pick’em up
March 9th, 2018 at 12:18 pm
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol
Must throw this in. This was an article I was alerted to from this:
https://www.joebucsfan.com/2018/02/bucs-offensive-line-graded-average/
If I read this incorrectly, I will absolutely provide a mea culpa, but as I read it, Bucs are 16 in rush and 16 in pass as an O Line.. Vikings 19 in rush and 6 in the pass.
Not really sure of your point. Joe shared those rankings because they were interesting. Vikings’ line was better than the Bucs’ (not referring to these rankings).–Joe
March 9th, 2018 at 12:24 pm
The question is does Licht/Koetter view McKinnon as a Charles Sims replacement, meaning a 3rd down back. Or does Licht/Koetter believe McKinnon can be “the guy”
McKinnon already has said he wants a shot to be the guy. If the Bucs dont view him as that he probly wont be interested. Same goes for Dion Lewis.
March 9th, 2018 at 12:28 pm
Great! Now we can all turn our attention to FA Running Backs that the Bucs will ignore. Not pursue. Not sign. Declare that no money is lying around to get one.
Has anyone seen evidence of this business practice before?
Let’s see….when did this just happen?
We are on to you Glazer Boys and we are pissed!
March 9th, 2018 at 12:42 pm
Da-ha Ha ! You can believe if carlos Hyde is a good fit for our Bucs.. Then he will not be here. Thats just the way..BucLife works. LuvmyBucs…Great offense you have there sir. Scoring 36 a game while the opposition scores 37. Go right ahead..draft offensively until you drop dead. Won’t matter. We’d better start stopping somebody..and quick!
March 9th, 2018 at 12:44 pm
Screw free agents – I want some young, fresh legs in our backfield.
Sure – go ahead and sign a marginal starter talent like McKinnon if the $ is right just in case the draft doesn’t fall right for a good RB again this year. But I think we’ve got a marginal starter talent already in Barber – we just need mo’ and betta.
Quite a few good backs available and coming out this year – likely into the 4th round for a shot at a good one if you choose correctly.
Would love to have either Sony or Guice in the 2nd or Rashaad Penny in the 3rd. Not sure if any of those guys will get to our pick in those rounds but if any one of them does we should pounce.
March 9th, 2018 at 12:55 pm
If were just going for average we already got Barber.
We need elite. Or at least top tier. Otherwise concentrate on other problems, for which there are many.
March 9th, 2018 at 12:57 pm
Point is pretty simple, just because the running backs performed better, doesn’t mean the lines are automatically better.
If the only game a person saw was versus the Bucs, then yes the Vikings look way better. When you look at the Vikings versus the rest of the league, which I did when watching McKinnon, they look more comparable. They had no Pro Bowlers in the group and no All-Pros. The unit, just like the Bucs, did not garner a single All Pro vote. They were just ok when run blocking.
Now, on all that, I guess we will just have to disagree,
but lets end on something we probably will agree on. I know this isn’t possible, but if you could regrade the Bucs line, but take out all of Doug Martin’s and Charles Sim’s rushes, the run blocking grade would look way better.
March 9th, 2018 at 1:02 pm
Losing hope
March 9th, 2018 at 1:14 pm
The guy is a really expensive Charles Sims – he’s not an everydown back.
March 9th, 2018 at 1:25 pm
I fell for this guy a few years ago in fantasy, when AP got hurt. He was supposedly a physical specimen. I still haven’t forgiven him!!!
March 9th, 2018 at 1:37 pm
Sign Richard Sherman, Trumaine Johnson, and Tyrann Mathieu… Secondary set.
Sign DeMarco Murray and Dion Lewis.
Draft DL first two rounds in the draft.
March 9th, 2018 at 1:39 pm
Hyde or Burkhead …or both!
March 9th, 2018 at 1:46 pm
Torrey Smith to panthers… great
March 9th, 2018 at 1:51 pm
Eagles are killing it meanwhile the glazers are sticking to their philosophy of only seeking out left overs, has beens and injury prone gambles. Worst owners is all of sports
JAB83
your enthusiasm is admirable but terribly misplaced. this team has zero hope and will once again reside in the nfc south basement led by the selfish me first quitter captain blowout cancer93
March 9th, 2018 at 1:55 pm
@tnew
Those rankings are kind of garbage to me. The only offensive line stat in there is the stuff %. The rest is debatable in terms of whether it was a RB making those yards or the line blowing up holes. Yards gained by RBs doesn’t automatically = great O-line. Just because Peyton Barber gets 5 yards it doesn’t show that he was hit after only gaining 1-2 yards.
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000916199/article/saints-bills-head-nfls-10-best-offensive-line-units
Here’s analysis showing the Vikings ranked 6th in the NFL last year. No one would say that about the Bucs.
Minnesota running backs got at least .5 yards on average before any defender was within 1 yard of them; which ranked 6th in the league. That’s a pretty good indicator of the run blocking success – moreso than just looking at RB yards gained on average.
March 9th, 2018 at 1:58 pm
are we there yet ?…..
March 9th, 2018 at 2:01 pm
Thankfully NFL Red zone exists, don’t have to waste my Sundays watching this train wreck team
March 9th, 2018 at 2:04 pm
Let Sims and Rodgers walk, grab Hyde and Murray. Please let this happen.
March 9th, 2018 at 2:53 pm
Doug Martin to the Raiders!
March 9th, 2018 at 2:54 pm
we swing and miss everytime in free agency
March 9th, 2018 at 2:55 pm
You should make a free agent thread so we can chat about what everyone is doing hours or days before you break a story! Or even rumors!
March 9th, 2018 at 2:56 pm
Ha just Heard in nfl radio that Chucky met with drug face to face and came away impressed and will make a push to sign him
March 9th, 2018 at 2:57 pm
Heard on* nfl radio
March 9th, 2018 at 2:58 pm
And he will rush for 1800 yards lmao
March 9th, 2018 at 3:04 pm
Carlos Hyde? A lot of wear on those tires. Like in “Christmas Story” when Ralphie says his dad’s spare tires were only tires in that they were round and once made of rubber. I like Mac, but not here. I’d be happier w/ Barber and then draft Penny or a back that can play all three downs and has some jump.
March 9th, 2018 at 3:14 pm
You know we could draft the best Kicker in the draft, don’t you?
March 9th, 2018 at 3:29 pm
LOL….no worries. Why limit to just not being able to evaluate the RB position?
The Bucs can’t evaluate a lot of other positions either: Safety, DL, CB, OL.
March 9th, 2018 at 3:40 pm
LUV- Killing it again! I’m 1000% in agreement about the o-line. We’re not ready yet for a dynamic back. Once the pieces are in place, then we can get our Saquon or whoever.
As you know, I’m a fan of “bruisers” and I liked the kid you posted video of, Ballage.
Give me THAT line though, and I think I could get some yards! That’s saying something!
March 9th, 2018 at 3:55 pm
Mike Evans, 5 year, $82.5 M
March 9th, 2018 at 3:59 pm
I said yesterday that Blount and he were on my wishlist. Joe wants the name guy, of course.
McKinnon won’t be expensive, as someone above suggested. You know what he has that Sims doesn’t? Consistency. As a backup, he has gotten more than 500 yards 3 of his 4 years. He’s also stayed healthy.
You cannot blame him for not doing more when he was given limited chances as a backup. He’s consistently done well with the opportunities he was given.
I get it. People want a hit it out of the park RB…but the simple truth is that’s not going to happen in free agecy. Hyde isn’t that. And we need a strong need for a defensive draft this year.
We can take a chance on McKinnon this year to buy time. If he works out? Excellent. If he doesn’t? Next year we draft someone.
And Blount willget us past the short yardage situations.
Hyde might do well, maybe not. But he’s a very pricey commitment for a maybe.
March 9th, 2018 at 4:01 pm
I have been saying this for years that the Bucs need to build a decent OL. But a bottom feeder don’t believe in using common sense.
March 9th, 2018 at 4:03 pm
$55m guaranteed for mike evans.
March 9th, 2018 at 4:03 pm
No Mike Evans news 5 year deal
March 9th, 2018 at 4:04 pm
The Bucs have been building an OL…and it has cost the defensive line in the meanwhile.
March 9th, 2018 at 4:05 pm
So pumped we extended Mike Evans!
March 9th, 2018 at 4:09 pm
Missing to pick up garbage from other teams is more important than Mike Evans extension.
March 9th, 2018 at 4:11 pm
Some of u guys are living in Madden. We can’t and won’t sign more than 3 top FA’s. And We need to be going for defense. The draft needs to be defense and a RB. We can’t sign everybody, and frankly I don’t think many players wanna come here
March 9th, 2018 at 4:12 pm
And I’d sign McKinnon as long as we get another stud RB in the draft
March 9th, 2018 at 4:14 pm
If we get one of these average rbs we have to sign norwell or someone else who can bolster the OL. Only a dynamic back can succeed behind last year’s line.
March 9th, 2018 at 5:42 pm
LC.. Thank you for sharing that article. I love looking at stats.
Most stats regarding blocking efficiency revolve around point of first contact. The football outsiders site that Joe and I cited is a compilation of a variety of stats that take into many factors that yield an adjusted ranking. It has its flaws but it is very comprehensive
The evaluation that Matt Harmon used was based on him taking just two kind of random metrics, (total number of QB pressures, not adjusted with time in the pocket, and yards gained before being within a yard of the first defender, gross number, not adjusted for down or formation) adding them together. The YGBC (Yards Gained before Close) seems as good as any measure I guess, except the deviation from the best to the worst in the NFL is maybe a yard with the average being .29. This is one that the Vikings are very favorable in but they are .14 yards or 5 inches better than average that took their run blocking rating metric all the way to 6th place.
At any case, the running back that dances in the back field, like Martin did will make this stat look WAY worse than the quick hitters that are at the top of that list. I can promise this metric was WAY, WAY higher with Barber vs Martin.
Saying this, I have felt our guard play was sub par all season, but the tackles and Marpet played pretty good. Even with this, and I was one that said bring Martin back, he truly made some terrible cuts, like Trent Richardson bad, very consistently this season. His vision this year was just bad.
My argument was totally regarding the thought that the reason to steer clear of McKinnon was due to Minnesota was a dominant run offensive line (plenty of evidence to refute this and call them pretty average). I didn’t even begin to look at artificial turf (3.1 ypc) vs grass (4.9 ypc)
March 9th, 2018 at 6:13 pm
BucsLifeSentence. Awesome screen name. I you had only spelled it correctly, it would be perfect.
March 9th, 2018 at 11:49 pm
Are their any elite RBs in FA? No. Are their elite O-linemen available? Yes. Buy O-linemen draft RBs.
March 10th, 2018 at 2:16 am
Tnew,
Guard play was definitely an issue but a whole lot of that can be attributed to Ali Marpet. The center can make the guards look terrible and Marpet was learning a new position. When Hawley took over the line played better. Not suggesting that Hawley is better than Marley but rather, Hawley’ s experience eliminated many of rookie mistakes made by Marpet.
Also, Sweezy contributed mighty to the woes of the line. I haven’t dismissed this at all but the main problem particularly early in the season was at center. Marpet did improve mighty as the season progressed and He looked like He was getting the calls and adjustment side down or not making the same mistakes made earlier. I have to think that signing a FA guard is a priority because you’re right it’s a big issue and it can’t be mitigated by the center for an entire season.