Was 2016 A Mirage?
March 28th, 2018
Won with mirrors in 2016?
Some interesting insight from Bucs coach Dirk Koetter.
Last night while Joe was driving from Orlando, Koetter, now entering his third season as Bucs coach, had a sitdown with Alex Marvez and Mark Dominik, co-hosting “Late Hits” heard exclusively on SiriusXM NFL Radio.
Koetter, of course, was asked about the offseason and mentioned how Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht’s main goal was to overhaul the defensive line.
(Koetter also mentioned two other objectives for Licht was to add at least one offensive lineman and find a kicker. Both can now be crossed off the wish list.)
Koetter said as a result of Licht’s busy offseason, it narrows the gap on what players and what positions to attack in the draft.
Whoa, hold up. This caught Joe’s attention. Outside of quarterback, wide receiver, tight end and linebacker, this team has all sorts of holes.
Yeah, the Bucs addressed the defensive line and aside from Jason Pierre-Paul, none of the guys the Bucs signed will have a bust in Canton and maybe never have their names on a future Pro Bowl roster. Improved defensive line? Sure, but let’s not get carried away just yet. So we can forget about the team drafting Bradley Chubb or Marcus Davenport or Vita Vea?
Joe doesn’t think safety is that rotten of a position but throw out the name of Derwin Jameis or this Minkah Fitzpatrick, and a good number of Bucs fans start doing cartwheels.
Same at offensive line with this guy Quenton Nelson. The way some Bucs fans freak over his name, it’s like he is the only guard in the draft.
(From what Joe gathered, the main reason folks are peeved at Ali Marpet moving to left guard has nothing to do with Marpet but a lot to do with the lessened chances of the Bucs drafting Nelson.)
Cornerback? The Bucs are beyond thin at corner. If Brent Grimes goes down, and if the Bucs do not make any additions to cornerback, it’s fair to argue no NFL team has worse corners than the Bucs, which is pretty shameful how a team is banking on a 35-year old corner to save them.
Running back? Good grief, this team sure looks to be one-dimensional on offense. Again.
The more Joe got to thinking of all the holes on the roster, even with the new additions on both lines and at kicker, how the hell was this team 9-7 in 2016 and just a whisker from the playoffs?
Sort of shows how good of a coaching job Koetter did and how important it is to have a solid quarterback.
March 28th, 2018 at 4:05 pm
Anything any organization says before the draft cannot be taken at face value. Maybe the talk of Marpet at LG is specifically designed so that they can draft Nelson…who knows..won’t know until draft night
March 28th, 2018 at 4:09 pm
Koetter is sure as heck not gonna tip our hand in the draft.
March 28th, 2018 at 4:09 pm
Joe, don’t forget that 9-7 record was achieved with much better play at CB, DL, and OL.. 3 of the biggest needs coming off 2017
March 28th, 2018 at 4:10 pm
chum
March 28th, 2018 at 4:12 pm
” what positions to attack in the draft.”…to me attack only applies to top 4 picks in descending order…after that it is like finding gem in the discount DVD box at Best Buy…..so I take Koetter was talking about the the first picks…as much as I’d like the buzz names around #7….the team really needs more picks….as in trading down if the opportunity comes and means passing on one really good player
March 28th, 2018 at 4:17 pm
Once Jude is healthy he’ll be back
March 28th, 2018 at 4:19 pm
2016 was a fluke!!!!!!
prove me wrong dirk and smitty!!!!!!
#NOEXCUSESIN2018!!!!!…..GO BUCS!!!!!!
March 28th, 2018 at 4:21 pm
Saying Marpet will start at LG, as of now, is a relatively weak attempt at a smokescreen. As of now, that’s the plan because they are stuck with Sweezy at RG, but if Nelson drops to 7, you can bet Marpet goes back to his initial NFL position of RG.
March 28th, 2018 at 4:26 pm
Because most all teams have holes and the year we went 9-7 we had pretty solid health on defense and a lot of clutch play in close games / some luck with teams like Seattle having so many injuries on their O-line.
Our D-line played well down the stretch during the win streak. Our secondary played well between VHIII/Grimes/Tandy + our LBs. We didn’t have the same injuries as 2017; and were better with Jaquis Rodgers than Doug Martin in 2017.
2016-2017 we’ve had about 7-8 win type talent here imo. At least now looking back. 2016 had me fooled that our D-line was going to keep playing that well despite age + that we had something in Tandy and that VHIII would have kept ascending.
But in retrospect I’d say we were at about 7-8 type talent the last few years; and we’ve averaged a 7-9 record in that time.
If we had the exact same team in 2018 as 2017; but
-Winston never got hurt and
-Barber was the starter all year
I’d imagine we have a pretty different season.
Basically NFL seasons have a sh1t load of variables going on and a couple plays here or there can be the difference between 6-10 or 10-6 or whatever.
Our offense – with slightly better line + any decent RB should be a top 10 scoring offense putting up 25+ PPG. Too much talent to not get that going in 2018. The defense hopefully can just be average.
March 28th, 2018 at 4:27 pm
Not “stuck with Sweezy”….either he’ll prove he is %100 healthy and ready for a full season or he’ll be released….there will be vet OG’s released after the draft
March 28th, 2018 at 4:29 pm
2016 almost = to 2010.
The way the nfl is , there are about 9 really good teams that are for real and about 6 that are plain bad… the other 17 will finish between 6-10 and 10-6 depending on injury, when they meet a certain opponent, schedule, and a few bounces of the ball. The problem with the 2010 and 2016 seasons were the gms really believed we were good and didn’t look for more upgrades, more depth, more competion. When you catch a few breaks, don’t believe you always will
March 28th, 2018 at 4:31 pm
Please stop mentioning Minkah Fitzpatrick and the Bucs. We will pass on Minkah if he’s there. Ward and James will go before MF. Bank it…..
March 28th, 2018 at 4:37 pm
Agree with R.O.
Minkah just doesnt fit with the Bucs’ scheme.
If you are looking for a leader and playmaker, you need look no further than Derwin anyways
March 28th, 2018 at 4:53 pm
I love it when Joe finally gets it!!!!!!!!!!! It takes a while but he come to “realize” that The Buc Realist was telling the truth all along once again!!!!!!!!! Can’t wait until the next article that points out what I have said all along!!!!!!!!! OMG!!!!!!!!!! Its another “Realist Repost”!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The Buc Realist Says:
January 23rd, 2018 at 3:21 pm
Of course no one wants to see the other side of the coin and realize that the roster was not as good as some thought and Coach Smitty covered up a lot of holes and deficiencies on the defense in 2016!!!!!!!!!!!
GO Bucs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Or if you want to see it back in 2016!!!!!!!!!!!!
The Buc Realist Says:
October 23rd, 2016 at 8:22 pm
There were so called fans, throwing in the towel in the “open thread” !!! All week they have been saying same ole Bucs, in games that they barely lost this year and were blown out in the first half last year!!!!!!
Sweet Sassy Molassy, what a game!!!!!!! and week for the Bucs!!!!
Kudos to the coaches covering up the obvious holes on these rosters!!!!
And now to the sad part!!! Some of the so called buc fans held a commie kaepernick club watch party at an undisclosed popeyes chicken!!! early reports had bighogheinous crying during the third quarter while wearing a kaepernick jersey and wearing a fake afro wig!!!!!!
The Bucs are .500 with 3 wins!!! and this just in from the stat geeks, It took coach my scheme 18 games to win 3!!!! so much the “same ole bucs crowd’!!!!!!!
Go America
And GO Bucs!!!!!
March 28th, 2018 at 4:54 pm
2010 was a truely insane mirage though compared to 2016…
Go look up the teams we beat in 2010. None were as good as the 2016 Seahawks/Chargers/Chiefs/Saints. We beat the Saints when they already clinched. Other than that we had no wins against teams with a winning record; and beat up on a bunch of bottom feeders.
2016 Schedule was much harder than 2010 and it isn’t close.
I think we slightly over-achieved in 2016 but not by that much. I think we massively underachieved in 2017; primarily because our offense wasn’t putting up the points it should have given the talent – but a lot of that is on the coaches commitment to doug martin / their offensive philosophies / + Winston getting hurt of course.
IMO
March 28th, 2018 at 4:55 pm
I hope they dont go DB in the first. Agree with Joes that coaches are not getting the most out of their young DBs. We need a physical kick your head in offensive line. Maybe draft 1 OL in the first, get your RB in the 2nd, another OL in later round and we will have a great offense. Pick up Your 2 DB later and devolpe.
March 28th, 2018 at 5:06 pm
If we go DB at 7 great, but I think there is a valid argument for picking a defender that is tall enough to stay with All the NFC talent. I realize a few inches shouldn’t make a difference but in a jump ball situation we are greatly compromised, especially in the red zone.
March 28th, 2018 at 5:16 pm
Look, It’s back to the drawing board. Even though it shouldn’t be this way two years later.
Our draft was awful in 2016. The one year we drafted for defense. That’s a huge reason why this team is in last place.
They didn’t do enough that year to fix the Dline so they bought one this year(not exactly how you wanna write it up).
They misevaluated VHIII and must prepare to move on. As much as Joe wants to say they can’t develope CBs the fact is they have only tryed to develope one that had any expectations.
We need a DB and we need one badly. It may force the Bucs to draft a DB over Nelson. I doubt they draft one over Chubb or Barkley though. You gotta think they would love a trade down option. They can then get what they need at proper value and have more ammo.
March 28th, 2018 at 5:20 pm
Lord Corn. The Bucs deserve no credit against the Saints from 2016.
They had nothing to play for and we had the playoffs on the line. We choked hard in that game. It was a very heartless effort for a team trying to get to the postseason. Same thing against Dallas.
I could care less how good we do or don’t look. It doesn’t matter when you choke when it matters.
March 28th, 2018 at 5:36 pm
I hate to burst bubbles but “on any given Sunday”. The difference between 5-11 and 9-7 is not really all that great and nowhere near as great as we are making it.
How many teams could lose their franchise QB for three games and have him injured through at least three more without it impacting their records. But even with this we lost seven games by a single score.
I do not think we were as bad talent wise as people wish to maintain…nor were we as good in ’16 and some wish to present. Both teams were slightly above average in talent with untapped potential. ’18 should be interesting.
March 28th, 2018 at 5:40 pm
Tua 2020!
March 28th, 2018 at 6:19 pm
That 9-7 season was nothing more than a FLUKE! The Bucs had so many breaks on defense. The Derek Anderson pass intercepted by Brent Grimes in the first panthers game is a prime example of this. This team should trade DOWN and acquire picks. Winston will be suspended and this season will be lost before it has started.
Time to show Licht and Koetter exactly where the door is!!!
March 28th, 2018 at 6:36 pm
Ro
Is right
James/ward/Fitzpatrick in that order
March 28th, 2018 at 7:01 pm
Draft Tua in 2020
March 28th, 2018 at 7:05 pm
Quenton Nelson is a generational player. He’s the guard equivalent of Joe Thomas.
Derwin James is already twice the player that Chris Conte is.
Ahhhh…..another year of Joe pinning for lesser players to be drafted by the Bucs in the 1st round of the draft.
Death…taxes…and Joebucsfan being way off base on draft prospects.
If only they had taken Johnny Football and Trent Richardson….We would have 2 or 3 championships by now.
How’d the Cowgirls fair this year with Ezekiel Elliot? Another flash in the pan rookie running back?
Barkley is still a luxury pick that this team should not make in another loaded RB class.
March 28th, 2018 at 7:32 pm
It’s not a fluke we went 5-11 because we didn’t address all the holes.
March 28th, 2018 at 7:59 pm
They better draft a kicker
March 28th, 2018 at 8:02 pm
Sign Bennie Logan and breeland that would totally open up options for us in draft
March 28th, 2018 at 8:05 pm
I would love to trade down if chubb Nelson Barkley and ward are gone. I would demand both first round picks from the bills and a 3rd round pick. If it’s Arizona or another quarter back team a first this year and 2nd plus a 1st for next year. I would prefer to trade up to 4 with Cleveland only if Barkely was still there. What do you guys think?
If none of this happens Nelson Chubb Barkley and ward gone.
1st round derwin James
2nd round corner
3rd round best running back available
Licht has killed us with picks like hardgraves bust for 9th over all and drafting aguayo in the 2nd round. Drafting the running back that we cut during hard knocks he needs to have an A+ draft or I say we fire him
March 28th, 2018 at 8:07 pm
The glazers were like we were close in all these games.
Am i the only one who see’s that we didn’t have the talent?
How do u win without a running game or secondary or defensive line and a below average offensive line ?
March 28th, 2018 at 9:04 pm
There is nothing inconsistent with what Koetter said and drafting BPA, and/or trading down, adding any and all of secondary help, RB help, OL and DL help in the draft.
And as he has proven, Licht is not afraid to make a trade.
I’ve relaxed after the JPP trade because it proves that Licht has a more strategic plan than us knee-jerk fans and is following it. And it would be stupid for them to disclose to us what they are really planning to do.
So time to chill.
March 28th, 2018 at 9:43 pm
Hey, Alan. Cool it doofus. You, nor any of us fans, are actually in a position to fire anybody. We can’t dictate drafting policies either. You think that this site is some sort of empowered committee that actually convenes to determine the Bucs’
management philosophy? I’ve been gettting on this site for the last few years because I’m hungry for any news about football, but I’m sick and tired of hearing a bunch of self-important delusional whiners acting like they’re genuine football experts. Yes, Jason Licht has made mistakes, and hopefully learned from them, but he has also quietly acquired a core of talented players to build a future on.
March 28th, 2018 at 10:10 pm
Good coaching job? Your delusional Joe this coaching staff is the reason the team sucked. Don’t blame Martin blame the guy who have him all the snaps. Why were they more competitive when key guys got hurt? The defense sucked yes but why was the offense so bad?
Dirk sucks so does Mike Smith so talent won’t matter, this team could fill every hole on the roster and still be Annette because of this coaching staff
March 28th, 2018 at 10:20 pm
Well swaggy your right I can’t argue with anything you said. No I don’t think I impact anything the organization is going to do not do I think they read our comments and look to make moves based off our thoughts. I’m simply trying to see what you guys think and what the fans are feeling. I was born and raised in NY I can tell you that Florida media is awful and the passion for sports in this state is pretty weak. Having a forum to express how you and others might think about this team is the only use of it. None of this stuff matters in theory
March 28th, 2018 at 10:52 pm
2016 was indeed a mirage…and the 5 game win streak looked like a water oasis after a decade of debauchery. I fell for it…it was a fun run…until they came up short vs Dallas ( making Prescott look like Aikman ) and completely soiled themselves vs the Saints which would have clinched a playoff spot. But Martin bottomed out ( yet stunningly was paid full salary in 2017 ) and the rest is history. Keeping expectations low for 2018…
March 29th, 2018 at 12:42 am
We have SEVEN needs and SEVEN picks:
RB – Saquon in the 1st?
CB – BPA in the 2nd
SS – BPA in the 4th
CB – BPA in the 5th
DT – BPA in the early 6th
OT – BPA in the late 6th
OG – BPA in the 7th
March 29th, 2018 at 1:30 am
To be positive, I’ll make the pro-Bucs staying the course argument…
The Bucs lost 3 games to kicking last, the Pats game, the home ATL game and the road CAR game. Better kicking and the Bucs are 8-8.
The Bucs lost at Buffalo when Humphries fumbled late in the game. If he doesn’t fumble the game away and you have better kicking, you’re already at 9-7.
The Bucs defense completely collapsed in Green Bay at the end of the game, not only giving up the lead but not even getting off the field in OT. If there was an even slightly better effort in GB, the Bucs are now at 10-6.
The Bucs were 4-1 versus teams under .500, but they played the most difficult schedule in the league facing only 5 teams all year that had a losing record. They weren’t losing to teams that were worse than them.
The Bucs beat the same number of playoff teams in the regular season as the Jags and Titans, but the Bucs played in a dramatically more difficult division were beating one playoff team doesn’t in turn make you a playoff team.
The Bucs franchise QB was injured early in the season, played injured, then missed a bunch of games. Despite this the Bucs still ended up 4th in the league in passing, which I believe is a franchise record.
The Bucs defense was the worst in the league, giving up not only the most yards, but they were the worst passing defense, last in sacks AND gave up the most points per opponent drive. In the Bucs history, which is very very bad, this was the first and only time it’s ever been 32nd in the NFL and it’s almost impossible to be the worst defense in the NFL two seasons in a row.
So there you go – if you look at it that way the Bucs really could have a big turnaround with some slightly better play, an easier schedule and some luck.
March 29th, 2018 at 1:34 am
NFLNut – Corner in the first, corner in the 2nd, safety in the 4th, corner in the 5th, offensive line in the 6th, RB in the 6th, safety in the 7th.
Obviously how the board plays out determines the picks, but I really think the Bucs need a LOT of corners and safeties. If the Bucs need a RB maybe offer the second 6th to Denver for CJ Anderson, I’m pretty sure they’d take the offer if they don’t release him first.
March 29th, 2018 at 8:08 am
be careful with guys with cool names from cool schools…like minkah fitzie…he highlight tapes are a bit underwhelming…pass on this dude for sure…
funny thing is the bucs are probably going to invest heavily in
har-grievances and give the pot smoker one more chance to up his game since they picked him 11th…he will get one more shoot knowing the bucs, and if he flops out the whole team will pay the price…so dood better stop smoking whewlas and get to work..maybe bring ronde into training camp as a consultANT OR SOMETHING AND WORK WITH THE KID…I HEARD HIS INTERVIEW YEsterday and it was all about mr. grievances…he believes the kid just hasn’t tapped in yet
March 29th, 2018 at 8:19 am
Joe, I’m sure what Koetter meant was that instead of needing 2 DEs, they only need one now. As much as I want Vita Vea, I doubt they will take him now though.
Kicker is not fixed. The guy they signed is not as good as they think. It’s yet another failure at the position. But they at least won’t draft one now.
1 DE
1 CB (this year)
1 RT
1 RB
Thos are jow the biggest needs.
March 29th, 2018 at 11:55 am
Why is it some here are totally on board with recognizing good breaks in ’16 but call bad breaks in 2017 poor play not luck. When a play goes our way it’s luck when it doesn’t it always OUR fault?
We had horrible breaks last year starting of course with injuries…our best pass rusher…our QB…our MLB…OLB…CB all missed 3 or more games.
How about I believe it was the 2nd Atlanta game. We’re driving at the end…#3 totally outplayed Matty Ice in that game. At the very end we race to lineup and get a play in…we’re in Falcon territory…and the NFL official inadverdantly kicks the football on the ground taking another 5-10 seconds to place the ball without stopping the clock. Basically an officials lack of coordination stole a critical last second play from us. But that’s not bad luck. It’s just an excuse. Perhaps next year we can pick better officials.
March 29th, 2018 at 7:13 pm
That’s some good gospel spilling from your mouth Horse Liver! Amen to that.
March 29th, 2018 at 7:15 pm
Hey St. Pete……yer right. Isn’t it a coincidence that officiating in NFL games is based on the direct proportion of the viewing market, lol