The Sole Survivor
March 23rd, 2018
The “building through the draft” company line used across the NFL sounds really sweet, warm and comfortable.
But it is misleading.
Look at the Bucs, specifically the 2014 NFL Draft. New general manager Jason Licht, alongside football czar head coach Lovie Smith, selected six players: Mike Evans, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Charles Sims, Kevin Pamphile, Kadeem Edwards and Robert Herron.
Evans is the sole survivor in Tampa.
The 2013 NFL draft? Only one Tampa Bay selection remains with the team. He’s Will Gholston, who appears to a have lost a lot of playing time after the Bucs just signed two free agent defensive ends to monster contracts.
Two Bucs remain from the 2012 draft. And throw in five Bucs in the house from 2015, and a combined 10 from 2016 and 2017.
That all adds up to 19 players on the roster from the last six drafts, and they’re all not guaranteed jobs for 2018.
If the Bucs hit a real home run in this year’s draft, they have a shot at half the eventual 53-man roster being comprised of drafted players. That hasn’t happened around here in a while, so kudos to Jason Licht if it does — as long as it translates to more wins than losses.
March 23rd, 2018 at 12:20 pm
I believe all 6 players are still in the NFL. What does that say?
March 23rd, 2018 at 12:23 pm
Honestly, if anyone makes a big deal about how the good players got here after we’ve been bad for as long as we have, that person is really focusing on the wrong part of the story. Whether it’s from the draft, FA, or wherever, I just want them to find the right mix of players to make this a team worth following.
March 23rd, 2018 at 12:24 pm
Don’t forget Licht fired many scouts after 2014 draft. So we should only look at 2015-present to evaluate Licht.
March 23rd, 2018 at 12:28 pm
Marine Buc Says:
March 23rd, 2018 at 12:20 pm
I believe all 6 players are still in the NFL. What does that say?
some have actually had success as well… it says bucs organization can not develop players nor can it recognize talent
March 23rd, 2018 at 12:29 pm
Marine
In hindsight it means we draft for other teams. Not ours
March 23rd, 2018 at 12:29 pm
Wow I wonder what it would look like if Licht wasn’t a draft day savant.
Yea and after posting to trade on fb to rub it in all my NY’ers faces they all laughed at me and said thanks.
So I’m beginning to think we got played, yet again.
March 23rd, 2018 at 12:33 pm
Give Licht some credit for UDFAs……..Brate, Hump, Barber and to a lesser extent… Auclair, Elliott, Glanton, Clarke, Cross & Wester
March 23rd, 2018 at 12:35 pm
I luv me some Alan Cross.
March 23rd, 2018 at 12:38 pm
Db55
Your right. Not a single Giants associate is angry about that trade. 🤔🤔
March 23rd, 2018 at 12:38 pm
Then look at the 2016 draft. This still has the potential to blow up in Licht’s face. VHIII and Spence are very much in a make or break season. Then you have Ryan Smith, Caleb Benenoch, Devante Bond and Dan Vitale.
I like Spence (who was considered a bargain at his pick), and I think VHIII could still be salvaged but would I trade Spence and VHIII for Jalen Ramsey… Um heck yeh.
I remember Gruden’s temper tantrum wanting to trade up for Calvin Johnson. (Gaines Adams draft)
Why again do we as fans not want the Bucs to investigate moving up to grab Chubb, Nelson or Barkley?
There are drafts to accumulate picks (last season) and drafts to move up. By most accounts this is a top heavy draft.
March 23rd, 2018 at 1:05 pm
Lamarcus
Not a damn one! Fml it’s a Bucs life
I like jpp though, he got too much heart to just mail it in. However he is playing along side the heart-less wonder so hopefully jpp doesn’t loss his mojo.
March 23rd, 2018 at 1:06 pm
Just posted this elsewhere, but its hardline data that really supports Licht.
League wide Round 1 success rate is 29.9%. Less than 1/3rd of 1st rounders become starters. Success rates drop of MASSIVELY after this.
Licht has nailed 3 out of 4 in round 1 and technically Hargreaves is not a lost cause yet.
Moreover. Lichts success rate on rounds 1-4 is a WHOPPING 60% in becoming starters.
March 23rd, 2018 at 1:08 pm
March 23rd, 2018 at 1:14 pm
Kadeem Edwards and Robert Herron are not still in the NFL. Kedeem is a free agent without a job. Herron is totally gone.
March 23rd, 2018 at 1:31 pm
Jolly your “hard line data” needs viagra to be supported.
1st rd “bust” rates averaged and taken as a whole run about 46%.
So on average – about 54% of 1st rd NFL draft picks “succeed”.
Licht is 75% in the 1st rd so far through 4 drafts which is obviously well above average but still a somewhat smallish sample size. Could possibly be bumped up to 100% if Hargreaves has a big turn around season which wouldn’t surprise me at all now that we’ve got an upgraded D-Line.
March 23rd, 2018 at 1:37 pm
Bad GM. Sorry Joe.
March 23rd, 2018 at 1:42 pm
@Pickgrin
Data from Pro Football Reference on picks that develop into starters. Perhaps some of your data on bust rates include 1st rounders that hang out and play rotationally but never turn into full time starters.
In that case licht would be 100% in the first round with Hargreaves being a solid slot CB.
March 23rd, 2018 at 1:56 pm
Evans is a star. And we got some value out if Sims and Pamphile. Not a bad draft for us.
March 23rd, 2018 at 2:20 pm
1 starter from 2014…..0 starters from 2016 is pretty bad. Building through the draft is the politically correct phrase for improving cash flow. The Glaziers have been improving cash flow for a decade now….or basically since the dad stepped down and the boys took over. The o-linemen we just let go….This is his 4th yr in the league….Guess what happens in yr 4. Once the players have 3 credited seasons, they begin to earn funds in annuities, their pensions, health savings accounts etc. The owners fund that. Since the last CBA, all the rosters got much younger with an emphasis on building through the draft.
March 23rd, 2018 at 4:01 pm
More like the Bucs can’t seem to build through the draft. Other teams have done it to a greater extent.
March 23rd, 2018 at 6:01 pm
What is “misleading” is trading away 6 no 1 picks over 15 years and expecting success.
Would the Bucs defense in 2017 have been better with Talib, Barron and Clayborn?- all starters on other teams
Don’t be surprised if 1/2 of these free agent signings flame out… that’s the typical Bucsfan mantra- cheer free agent signings in March and then reality sets in November
Licht has done a good job Not trading most of picks…if they trade high picks to move up for Barkley or Chubb- expect more of same failure
March 23rd, 2018 at 10:20 pm
@DB55
Walterfootball rated the Trade about even for us and the Giants.
We gave up the 69th overall pick in this draft, took a Salary Cap issue off their hands, and more or less swapped 4th round picks
The Giants plan to run a 3-4 defense, and JPP is better suited for a 4-3.
We got an honest to goodness pass rusher, something we haven’t had here in Tampa for a very long time.
All of this came from Dave Gettelman, the NY General Manager who used to be the Panthers GM.
The Panthers FIRED him, so perhaps this might be PAYBACK to the Panthers, for letting him go ?
WTFK’s (deciper that) ?
All I know is, I am Happy As Hell that JPP is a Buc!