Are Numbers Lying?
March 18th, 2018
Digging for context.
Joe remarked yesterday that he was, overall, shrugging his shoulders at the signing of Eagles defensive lineman Vinny Curry.
Just minutes after it was learned the Bucs released Robert Ayers, the Bucs announced the acquisition of Curry, who was cut last week by the Eagles. He was expendable after the Eagles traded for Michael Bennett.
Joe looked at his 9.5 sacks-total for the past three years and wondered what all the fuss was about. How was/is that an improvement over Ayers?
Well, one thing Joe learned is that Curry is durable. Last year Curry had the third-most snaps of any Eagles defensive lineman and that was with Curry playing in a rotation. Ayers hasn’t played in more than a dozen games since 2013.
Still, it bugs Joe that with so many less games played than Curry, Ayers has so many more sacks.
Joe also came across a stat for quarterback hurries, which is a stat where the QB has to unload the ball to avoid a sack and the result is an incompletion or a pick. Though 2017 stats are not available on SportingCharts.com, Curry was No. 36 in the NFL in 2016 with 19 quarterback hurries. Gerald McCoy was No. 34 with 20. Ayers was No. 83 with 12.
Earlier this month, Eliot Shorr-Parks of NJ.com made a case for the Eagles to keep Curry. In this article, Shorr-Parks notes how Curry is exceptional against the run. Notice a pattern here with the defensive linemen the Bucs signed last week?
Only time will tell if Curry is a monster or not, but it should be interesting to see what he can do as a full-time player as opposed to a rotational player.
March 18th, 2018 at 1:40 am
He going to kick ASS stop acting lick an ex -wife !
March 18th, 2018 at 2:07 am
I like the move, while i was getting inpatient with the front office not doing much, i took a step back and said to myself, its gonna be fine, they are doing good things by signing these guys, and even more importantly these are great team players for our locker room, lets let the front office do their thing this year, they know it s a do or die year for this regime, its either put up or shut up for koetter and licht, lets give them the opportunity to prove us wrong, especially with everything at stake this year…..just saying Joe.
everything will be ok, think positively!
March 18th, 2018 at 2:12 am
Not sure if bucs had the time to do the proper research on curry but maybe beau Allen provided some good info
March 18th, 2018 at 2:20 am
Just wait until Chubb falls to the Bucs. They might get some actual pressure on opposing qbs.
March 18th, 2018 at 2:37 am
I’ll just say again… but based on Licht’s history in free agency this will almost certainly be a bust.
March 18th, 2018 at 2:59 am
I don’t see it either joe.
Ayers 5 mil 60 tackles 8.5 sacks in 24 games 1 hurt knee,shoulder,ankle. 1mil garuntee
Curry 9mil 68 tackles 5.5 sacks in 32 games. 1 hurt mcl. 11.5 injury garuntee
March 18th, 2018 at 3:04 am
I can’t wait to see what happens. We all know the issue, we all know what the answer should be, yet, none of us know what the outcome will be. I hope to the football gods it’s all going to be good now.
March 18th, 2018 at 3:19 am
The Bucs still have Ryan Smith and Chris Conte starting.
The offense had better average over 30 points a game if the team is to have a chance.
March 18th, 2018 at 3:23 am
Ayers was old, stinky garbage. Played next to a double team GMC and could still never get the QB. I’m liking younger, healthy Curry much more.
March 18th, 2018 at 3:26 am
I’m fine with the Curry for Ayers swap … I would probably have been more happy with the team not re-sgning Will Clarke and just holding onto Ayers though to give it a 6-DE rotation of: Ayers/Curry + Spence/Russell + Gholston/Unrein … BUT … Ayers $6mil cap savings is likely enough to sign a starting SS like Tre Boston or Kenny Vacarro, so … I’m okay with it.
March 18th, 2018 at 3:27 am
He’s a rotation player. Him and Chubb rotating would be sick next to GMC.
March 18th, 2018 at 3:32 am
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BTW, after giving some more thought the JETS trade up with the Colts … I think it’s obvious the Jets would have TRIED to trade up to #2 with the Giants first … and there offer did provide enough draft capital to get a the #2 UNLESS the Giants plan to go QB. What I mean is … the package they gave the Colts is worth way, way, way more than ONLY Saquon or Quenton, yet it seems the Giants turned it down. Why? Because the Giants have been fibbing to everyone and are absolutely planning to draft a QB and had no intentions of moving out of that #2 spot … this seems very, very likely.
That said … here is my revised mock:
BROWNS: SAM DARNOLD
GIANTS: JOSH ROSEN
JETS: JOSH ALLEN (word is they are much higher on Allen than Mayfield)
BILLS (will make an offer the Browns can’t refuse imo): BAKER MAYFIELD
BRONCOS: QUENTON NELSON
COLTS: BRADLEY CHUBB … OR … SAQUON BARKLEY
BUCCANEERS: WHOEVER THE COLTS DON’T TAKE … CHUBB OR SAQUON!
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March 18th, 2018 at 3:41 am
Chubb/Fitzpatrick/Nelson. If we can get Chubb, of course. Nelson is the most sure player of the top 10. We could try out Fitzpatrick at S or CB and it’s not gonna be like Ryan Smith. And Minkah is said to be a team leader.
March 18th, 2018 at 3:45 am
Joe
Curry had 9.5 sacks in 2014. You keep failing to mention that
March 18th, 2018 at 3:45 am
Vinny Curry Mic’d Up: Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=useeIgumHbg
March 18th, 2018 at 3:51 am
I hope Licht finds his biscuit and gets a trade done with Denver.
March 18th, 2018 at 4:19 am
Hopefully we Sign NT Bennie Logan!
March 18th, 2018 at 4:58 am
Hopefully the Bucs add a couple DE via the draft and Curry still plays in a rotation. Having a good rotation of your D-line is huge.
March 18th, 2018 at 5:05 am
If nothing more, the Bucs have better depth players now than they did last season. That can’t be argued.
March 18th, 2018 at 5:13 am
Feeling a bit more optimistic about our team now not a lot but some. With the movement and shake up that’s occurred by teams ahead of us lately has made it a little more likely that either Chubb, Nelson, or Barkley could fall to us. With the Chubster it could mean our new acquisitions on the interior Dline can put a stop to the inside running and collapse the pocket quicker (Which isn’t as good as sacks but still more effective in what we saw last year where qb’s had enough time to sit back there make a sandwich and take a nap) waiting for qb rollouts and rb’s going wide could now have Chubb waiting on one side and (Let’s hope/pray that he has both shoulders ready to go and has beefed up a bit. Since I have moved to Colorado and am not at the facility any longer I’ll have to wait to see his progress) and Spence on the other. 2nd choice would be Nelson, can just envision Jensen at center flanked by Nelson and a happy and invigorated Marpet (that he’s ecstatic at being back at his natural position) just think of the running lanes “YEAH BABY!!” Then in 2nd it would be awesome if S. Michel was sitting there for us. If our Oline was solid already obviously would prefer Barkley but we need the 1 2 punch of another guard first that helps blow open the lanes and not requiring the rb to always create or dance around while waiting. In that scenario we also need Donovan and Big Dot to maximize their talent and protect J. With the weapons at wr & te we have now we really COULD have the best offense Tampa has ever seen, and it wouldn’t be the other team finally haha. Jameis would have zero reasons to not succeed and more importantly he wouldn’t have to feel that it’s SOLELY on him to go out and bulldoze his way to a win alone. That’s where his turn overs happen. In summary I’ll be extremely happy if we can land Chubb or Nelson, almost as happy if Barkley is the only of those 3 left. But at 7 you gotta take him and then solidify left guard later. Was originally all for Minoan if he’s there at 7 but doing more research and hearing more lately I’m not completely sold on him. D. JAMES seems more solid at CB but without an improved pass rush (we have not in any shape or fashion improved) any DB we get or now have is still toast back there. QB’s today are just way too good when they have time to sit back in the pocket or just roll out and complete down field.
March 18th, 2018 at 5:13 am
@LUV, yeah im feeling it, high energy and a big voice too. Good addition. GJ Licht!
Doesnt change my draft strategy….Chubb/Vea/Barkley/ trade back into bottom of first for Landry (even if we land Chubb).
March 18th, 2018 at 5:19 am
If only we had some way to get better players in a way where the players have no choice and teams can’t outbid us…
March 18th, 2018 at 5:27 am
Geez, just saw the auto correct. Minkah, not Minoan
March 18th, 2018 at 6:02 am
@Rick,
Don’t worry, nobody else saw it either.
March 18th, 2018 at 6:11 am
I’m hearing some places talking about how the Bucs should go after the 4 or 5 pick. Ludicrous. Too many holes on this team for that nonsense and I have a feeling the Jets/Colts trade just kicked the QB needy hornet nest. The Giants are sitting pretty as well as the Browns with a chance to cash in on their luck if they choose to entertain trades.
Someone is going to fall to 7. Chubb, Nelson, or Barkley. One of those 3 has to be our pick. Minkah would have been the clear choice pre-trade but you have to go with the sure thing at 7 and pick the best available. This scenario is guaranteed if either the Jets move up to 2 or someone else comes in at 2 or 4.
March 18th, 2018 at 6:14 am
Correct me if I’m wrong but aren’t we getting a lot younger…probably healthier, stronger & faster.
March 18th, 2018 at 6:28 am
It looks as if we still have the third most cap space in the NFC…..and far more than any division opponents…..especially NO who looks to have $150,000
March 18th, 2018 at 6:52 am
Got a feeling Barkley will fall due to the position being deep, and QBS going 1-3 and Denver at 5, Browns draft Chubb at 4, Colts grab Nelson at 6
March 18th, 2018 at 6:56 am
I can see Buffalo jumping to 2 giving up their 2 1sr and a 1st next year and another 2nd this year
March 18th, 2018 at 7:08 am
Awe replaced Ayers with a slightly better version of himself but I’m fine with it. Ayers was injury prone and needed to go.
March 18th, 2018 at 7:16 am
Pacifer time.
Time for the babies.
March 18th, 2018 at 7:24 am
^ lol
March 18th, 2018 at 7:36 am
Watched some film on Curry. The numbers might not be there but he plays much more sudden and stronger than Ayers. Might not get the sack numbers, but I like his film better than Ayers.
March 18th, 2018 at 7:38 am
Time to get ready to trade up a spot or two…..Denver is our best bet so we can land Chubb….or maybe Indy needs more picks.
March 18th, 2018 at 7:51 am
All these INSIDE rushers we’re adding…hmmm. Preparing to trade GMC on draft night? Nothing would shock me at thispoint with this team. We’ve basically signed 3 Lineman who play better on the inside. Not bashing GMC…these moves are calculated to get younger on the inside imo. Draft
1st Davenport/ Ward
2nd Landry
March 18th, 2018 at 7:52 am
Whatever. Standing pat won’t do, and Curry brings a Super Bowl mentality.
March 18th, 2018 at 7:54 am
Not complaining but something weird is going on
March 18th, 2018 at 8:03 am
Chill…….these are merely coach able functional players holding spots in the line up until dominate starters can be found….still have the draft and cast off vets after the draft….Bucs are most certainly a work in progress with the offense a few starters ahead of the defense….lets hope Jameis can hook up deep and hit the players in stride on shorter routes….
March 18th, 2018 at 8:11 am
So are you saying that you wrote your last article before doing any real research?
March 18th, 2018 at 8:12 am
I’m friends with a hard core Eagles fan.
He said both Curry and Allen are really good players but the Eagles are in such bad shape with their cap they were not able to keep them both.
March 18th, 2018 at 8:16 am
I think that the coaches and executives got a mulligan from ownership for last year. They said ok, you got excuses then you don’t need much to fix it. We were supposed to go to the playoffs last year. No we either get there this year or they find someone else to get us there.
March 18th, 2018 at 8:22 am
This from NFL.com
“The Eagles cut Curry on Friday after he declined to take a pay cut or restructure his contract with the team. He is ranked No. 18 on NFL.com’s Top 101 Free Agents on 2018.”
Go Bucs !!!!
March 18th, 2018 at 8:26 am
I don’t feel to confident about this signing because we gave up a known player in the process, Curry while younger than Ayers it’s not young for the position and he has been on the decline, but oh well.
@Joe
What it’s this non-sense about G Nelson being a top 10 pick? When was the last time an interior OL that couldn’t play T waa picked that high, and why in the world would teams adventure with it now? Why in the world do Bucs fan want this team to be the team to pick him 🤦♂️? What in the world it’s going on?
March 18th, 2018 at 8:38 am
I read somewhere that Curry had 42 QB hurries last season. I’m not sure where that would put him as far as rankings once the 2017 chart comes out but not too bad.
March 18th, 2018 at 8:39 am
Should’ve kept both DEs
March 18th, 2018 at 8:39 am
There are a great number of philly fans that think they got a down-grade with the liar-bennett over Curry deal!!!!! They are not happy about it!!!!!! I can see why the media and joe are sad that liar-bennett was not acquired, he is a media gold mine!!!!!! you can just post his name once a week and get over 100 comments, all of which will have nothing to do with football or his on the field declining play!!!!!!!
NFL GM Licht is really setting this team up for the draft!!!!!
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!!
March 18th, 2018 at 8:48 am
Licht has barely touched the secondary other than resigning grimes. I feel like the pick at #7 is gonna be Fitzpatrick or James. I bet licht is expecting Chubb to be gone by 7 that’s why he’s trying to fix the D line through free agency. I don’t see Barkley falling this far and can’t get a feeling if he wants the guard Nelson since we still have sweezy.
March 18th, 2018 at 9:03 am
Realist,
What are your thoughts on a trade down if a top 3 prospect isn’t there?
March 18th, 2018 at 9:11 am
Can’t remember who it was between the Joe’s, Ira, or Palowski but it was said that we shouldnt be paying for what a player has done but for what they will do for us.
I think that’s what this signing is. Curry is young and has shown the same or slightly better production as a Vet in Ayers. He also put up those numbers with less snaps. This is a good signing, Curry has upside and potential to do more with more snaps. Worst case scenario he brings to the table what we know he is capable of doing.
March 18th, 2018 at 9:19 am
@SteveK
I see more than players that the Bucs could take at the 7th overall spot!!!!! With Mount Vea!!!!!! I just want the pick to be in the trenches!!!!!!
I just don’t see who will trade down with Tampa as we are not in front of a QB hungry team!!!!!! the two or three teams behind us are not likely for Qb’s, And as QB’s value rise and always go higher than mock drafts!!!!!!
Besides this team needs a top 10 player from the draft!!!! The free agency fixes depth as it should, but now we need “starters” and ” nfl stars”!!!!!!!!
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
March 18th, 2018 at 9:19 am
Ayers should have been THE man on our D line from a pass-rush perspective with help from virtually no one as none of his linemates could sniff a quarterback with the exception of GMC. And we all know his numbers crushed Ayers numbers. .Curry on the other hand rotated on a line that had Graham, long, Cox, and others, all who could get after the passer. My point is Ayers should have had much better number minus the injuries of course. This move was a no-brainer.
March 18th, 2018 at 9:22 am
I thought you weren’t into stats? Just like McCoy you watch with your eyes forget the stat sheets because in the end I don’t give a freak what he did before he got here. If he was leading the league in sacks the last 6 years it wouldn’t matter if he didn’t play for us.
He had to play well in a buc uniform period. Knowing Licht I’m sure we’re going after some tiny linebacker size end who can do nothing but rush the passer, they don’t believe there are players who can do it all
March 18th, 2018 at 9:23 am
I’d like Vea, and agree the pick should be used on the trenches with the one exception if Barkley is there.
March 18th, 2018 at 9:26 am
I think our new D-line coach had a lot to do with these FA acquisitions. He needed time to study the film on them and our respective players before his imput. I might have kept Ayers as a rotational player but they made their choices on what they saw and just before Ayers was due a roster bonus, so money was definitely a factor. He is highly thought of so lets see what he can do here.
March 18th, 2018 at 9:30 am
By the way I am completely in with fixing the trenches first and foremost, the Cb’s as you can
March 18th, 2018 at 9:40 am
All the Defensive line additions accomplished, was to moderately improve our run defense.
But Nobody runs against us- until they have already established the pass!!
Either Licht knows something the rest of us dont, and he has a plan in place
– or the wheels have really fallen off,over at OneBuc place
I posted a week ago, that Mike Smith keeps building a Run stopping defense- In a passing league.
After our moves in Free agency- its even more evident.
Smh
March 18th, 2018 at 9:52 am
I said the Bucs were a 3-13 team before free agency. Now I will give them 6-10 at best.
March 18th, 2018 at 9:57 am
And the draft won’t change my prediction. I look at the players lost in free agency and the players gain. Then I look at the coaching staff. I don’t really see much to brag about. If they do better than 6-10, then I would give them props. But as of now, I don’t see it.
Sorry for the negativity
But this is how I see it
March 18th, 2018 at 9:59 am
I LOVE IT
Trash Pickers of the NFL with Fans so hungry for any scrap of a REAL player we talk about who is better out of a wornout and a cast out
We Should Have signed Bennett then the Eagles could have this talk
The CANCER OF LOSING has spread and is terminal
March 18th, 2018 at 10:18 am
@NFLNut…
Just stop, don’t do your mocks anymore. That whole last take was off, awful, other than Darnold to Cleveland maybe. And the information that you mention on “word is” was awful, just stop.
On the bright side, Licht STILL has all the Saquon-capital left in 2018-2020!!
Go Bucs!
March 18th, 2018 at 10:25 am
LakeLand Says:
March 18th, 2018 at 9:52 am
I said the Bucs were a 3-13 team before free agency. Now I will give them 6-10 at best.
With improvement like that, you want to give loser lovie an extension!!!!!! we don’t care how color is “how you see it”!!!! LOL!!!!!!! Believe the “real” fans when we are only worried when Lakeland Buc gives props!!!!
Improvement Indeed!!!!!!!!!!
GO Bucs!!!!!!!!!!!
March 18th, 2018 at 10:44 am
Rob Ayers had 2 sacks, 16 QB hits, and 45 Pressures on 587 snaps in 2017.
Curry had 3 sacks, 17 QB hits and 47 QB pressures on 578 snaps.
March 18th, 2018 at 10:59 am
Third best DE Testo hit FA, according to Rotoworld’s rankings, and you’re still bitching and whining Joe.
March 18th, 2018 at 11:00 am
**********************
BetterBucInBelieveIt,
I value my knowledge and even my opinions much more highly than I value yours … so … carry on.
I absolutely believe QBs COULD go #1-4 and that the Bills will likely trade up to #4 after topping the Cardinals offer. I called the Jets and Colts trade weeks ago.
I also think the Jets would have OBVIOUSLY tried to get to #2 with the same offer they go to #3 with, but were rebuffed by the Giants, and I don’t think the Giants rebuff THAT offer (3 extra 2nd round picks) if they’re just planning to take a RB or OG. If they did, then it simply proves the Giants are now led by a horrible GM, period … and I guess that wouldn’t be shocking either since he’s the guy who gave Solder $62mil.
I have been saying literally for MONTHS that when we pick at #7, either Saquon, Chubb or Nelson will be available or there will be ONLY ONE of the top 4 QBs left so we will be in prime position to trade down for a King’s ransom … and I stick by that and do believe I’ll be proven right.
By the way … with my last mock … it makes no difference what order the QBs go off the board in, only that they go off the board in the first 4 picks. It doesn’t matter if it goes Darnold-Rosen-Allen-Mayfield as I have it right now, or the exact opposite with Mayfield-Allen-Rosen-Darnold as the end result will be the same.
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March 18th, 2018 at 11:07 am
DE Chubb in the 1st or DE Rasheem Greene in the 2nd.
March 18th, 2018 at 12:15 pm
Sacks and pressures are stats that try to give a picture of how well a player does their job, but they have limitations. That’s why the people who assess the relative strengths and weaknesses of players watch the tape. I really liked Ayers, but in all honesty, he had much more value in the locker room than he had on the field. Curry might be a similar player on the stat sheet, but I’d be willing to bet that when our coaches and front office guys watched his tape, they saw a guy who was more consistent than Ayers at doing his job of defending the run and affecting the pocket.
Some of you guys seem to forget that it took several years of going offense-heavy in the draft for that to finally start to bear fruit on the field. It’s going to be the same on defense. A different talent-acquisition strategy might have yielded results sooner, but at the expense of being able to sustain that improvement. We’ve seen teams shoot up the standings only to struggle to maintain that dominance. Why would we settle for that? The Patriots dynasty wasn’t built that way. That’s why it’s lasted. Licht cut his teeth on that philosophy and that method. He said from Day 1 that his mission was to build a dynasty and I don’t think he has ever compromised on that. Our team is better today than it was at the start of free agency, not only in terms of the roster, but also in its financial obligations. That’s exactly what I expect from a good GM. I trust that Licht knows what he’s doing, and for those that might not agree, I think he’s at least earned the benefit of the doubt.
March 18th, 2018 at 12:29 pm
He is gonna ball
March 18th, 2018 at 2:25 pm
Christmas shopping at Goodwill
March 18th, 2018 at 3:56 pm
He’s not gonna be all that.