Hurt The Bucs
February 14th, 2018
Direct criticism.
This is not a list any player needs to be on.
Joe likes Football Outsiders. Yeah, they tend to be geeky in their love of goofy stats. But what Joe likes about them is, first, they tend to look at the NFL from different and interesting angles. Second, they are not slaves to stats unlike some Irish-bent, three-letter outfit that claims to be the final say in all things football.
If the Football Outsiders crowd sees something weird in their stats, they say so. How novel! Open-minded analysis.
So this week Football Outsiders published a unique awards project that one likely won’t see anywhere else. One award is for the player who hurt his team most. Included in the top 10 was none other than Doug Martin.
This didn’t surprise Joe one iota. As Joe has written several times, Bucs coach Dirk Koetter is a loyal guy and that’s a tremendous trait to have. It can also be a double-edged sword.
That sword sliced Koetter’s skin last year because of his unshakable loyalty to Martin.
Though noble, that loyalty handcuffed the Bucs into one of the most one-dimensional offenses in the NFL. What is the key for every defense? Make an offense one-dimensional. And the Bucs were just that before the “Star Spangled Banner” was played because of Martin.
This is why Joe, if it came down to Bradley Chubb or Saquon Barkley, as awful as the pass rush of the Bucs is, Joe would take Barkley because he could be an immediate impact player who might turn the franchise around himself.
As for the list of players who hurt their teams most, there were two interesting finalists. The winner was Eli Apple, who some think Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht should kick the tires on.
Another? Adrian Peterson (unless he was running against Mike Smith’s defense).
February 14th, 2018 at 5:21 am
As much as I’d love Barkley, the draft is exceptionally deep at running back this year, some say even more than last years. Where the defensive end position is lacking mightily unless the Bucs could somehow land Ziggy or some sort of a magical trade.
February 14th, 2018 at 5:23 am
Keep fighting the good fight, Joe. Doug Martin is one of the biggest reasons why the team didn’t make the playoffs in 2016 and why the offense looked one-dimensional in 2017.
February 14th, 2018 at 5:35 am
@joe
Hat-tip to me!
I was writing about illogical loyalty before you started to do so.
I am happy you picked up on my point.
Licht and Koetter need to be more objective if they want to be successful in the NFL.
February 14th, 2018 at 5:39 am
Martin should have been benched after his 2nd game. Not benching him is a MASSIVE indictment of this coaching staff and is one of the worst football decisions in all of the NFL that i can think of in the post-lovie smith era,
February 14th, 2018 at 5:58 am
Anotherr has been that never was anything but an unreliable slow back who could not score. By bucs standards though I am sure they are planning his ring of honor date already. No
body falls in love bad and mediocre players like low standard buc fan
February 14th, 2018 at 6:09 am
“if it came down to Bradley Chubb or Saquon Barkley, as awful as the pass rush of the Bucs is, Joe would take Barkley”
Thankfully, Joe is not the Bucs GM.
We would not have that choice at #7 even once if this draft was run 1000 different times – so its a moot point – but still, that’s some messed up thinking right there – as was Joe’s recent suggestion that the Bucs should move UP for a RB at the top of the draft.
February 14th, 2018 at 6:19 am
I think because he was ex Boise State had something to do with the non benching but it’s Lichts and Moke Smith’s job to make sure Koetters loyalty (stubbornness) didn’t hurt the team and they were both asleep at the wheel. Making matters worse Licht drafts another House Stare flop as his backup. Thanks Jason I thought New England motto was to cut ties early??? He also held onto the wasted 2nd round kicker too long all of these decisions doomed the season!!!!!!!
February 14th, 2018 at 6:19 am
Loyalty is one thing, what Koetter did was foolhardy. Week 16, Carolina, Bucs have the lead, with the ball, 8 minutes to go. Barber was averaging near 4 yards a carry. Koetter chose Martin, at less than 1 ypc to ice the game. Decisions like this from the head coach loose games. Koetter allowed Martin to lose the Lions game for the Bucs as well. For all of those who say, behind this offensive line….. just go look at what Barber did, behind the same line.
February 14th, 2018 at 6:56 am
Barkley over Chubb? Come on man….I mean I get you you a little, but we know defenses wins games and when we’re ranked last in almost every category on D, we need Chubb a lot more. Pick up Penny in the 3rd…or even Chubb’s cousin Nick Chubb!
February 14th, 2018 at 7:06 am
Hard to believe Koetter and Mike Smith did not make the list of most ineffective coaches along with McAdoo, John Fox, Hue Jackson, Ken Norton (DC Raiders) etc????? Of course national media does tend to overlook the Bucs even for the negative awards with punching bags like the Giants, Browns, Bears, etc always in the national spotlight.
February 14th, 2018 at 7:51 am
I love Barkley’s skillset but would take Chubb over Barkley any day of the week. There are other RB’s available in the draft and free agency. Seeing the fact that several decent RB’s are available in free agency but no pass rushers shows that RB’s aren’t as valuable to teams as a pass rusher.
February 14th, 2018 at 8:24 am
The only way the Bucs could get Barkley or Chubb is if they trade up. That of course comes with a price to pay for the other rounds, especially if you’re trading in the 1st round of the Draft.
February 14th, 2018 at 8:29 am
So it wasn’t really Martin who hurt the offense it was dork. He decided to play the guy so it’s all the coaches fault.
February 14th, 2018 at 8:29 am
Even if bucs trade up what makes you people think Chubb or Barkley would not sit out a year to avoid playing for the worst pro franchise in sports. Bucs have a history of players refusing to join the circus…
Bucs only hope not to be in bed south basement is if n fgl cobtracts team and saves the city and fans from the embarrassment that is the Tampa bay buccaneers
February 14th, 2018 at 8:57 am
It must really suck to be inside your skin tmax. What a miserable life you must surely lead. I feel sorry for anyone whose circumstances are such that they are forced to come into contact with you in the real world.
February 14th, 2018 at 8:58 am
Barkley over Chubb? No-no-no to drafting a RB in Round 1 Joe; Bucs don’t have that luxury this year. Chubb would be my 1st choice, but if he’s not there, then Minkah would be my 2nd choice, and if he’s gone also then a beastly DT (Vea or Payne probably) would be my 3rd choice. There are plenty of high-potential RBs available in Rnds 2-4, possibly even later. Fix the OLine & Secondary in FA (LG, CB, C) & fix the DLine (1-2 DT & 2 DE) & RB (up to 2) & CB/SS (1) in the draft.
February 14th, 2018 at 9:12 am
More than Doug hurt this team! Bottom line is he is the best back on the team at this point! Bring in whomever you want, keep Martin and let the competition begin, that’s how you build the team, let the competition make your decision on who makes the team!! By the way, you need at least 3 Backs on game day and usually one of them is the third down pass catching specialist! If you don’t want Doug on the team go ahead and cut him …..he may land in NEW ENGLAND!! CONTINUE TO BUILD A WALL ON BOTH SIDES OF THE BAY…
February 14th, 2018 at 9:30 am
Barkley over Chubb….probably not since we are desperate for a pass rush and have been for a long time. I like Barkley so I wouldn’t be crushed but I probably lean towards Chubb because of our dramatic need for a pass rush.
Meanwhile JOE I think I might have an answer as to why Koetter favored Martin for so long. Remember yesterday when I talked about a football coaches mind.
They typically are not open minded….hence “tried and true” practice methods.
One thing coaches HATE…HATE…HATE…is putting the ball on the ground.
I’m no Doug Martin fan but you gotta give him props for ball security. In his 2015 season he fumbled four times but he was the bell cow that year and had 288 carries. Means he fumbled 1.3% of the time. He had another season with no fumbles.
Last year Doug fumbled 1 time in 138 carries or .7% of the time while Payton fumbled twice in 106 carries for a 1.8% of the time. But Payton did not fumble once in 2016 so his career average is 1.2% Doug’s career average is .06%.
Doug may have issues but hanging on to the rock is not one of them. Since Payton fumbled twice last year but zero the year before I think those numbers are far too small of a sample to indict him as a fumbler.
But Koetter is a football coach. Depending on when Payton’s fumbles came…I do not recall…Koetter may have developed a real prejudice based on ball security.
Again most football coaches will take a mediocre RB who doesn’t put the ball on the ground over a more talented one who fumbles. Perhaps Payton’s two fumbles really stuck in Koetter’s crawl.
IMHO that still braindead since Payton didn’t fumble at all his first year and he was clearly better than Doug. Two fumbles in a season shouldn’t have derailed him.
February 14th, 2018 at 9:41 am
That’s why I believe DM is the one player who should be responsible the most for the disappointing season
February 14th, 2018 at 9:58 am
Joe- you can continue to make Doug Martin the scapegoat all you want. The reality is that this team has much bigger issues and they are not just “one running back away.” Who will be your scapegoat when he is no longer with the Bucs? I don’t see him coming back but I wish him the best in his future career on and off the field. Unfortunately fans & the local journalists will focus on the negatives of his career rather than as the Buc’s second all-time leading rusher, two time pro bowler & All pro. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him have success with another team.
February 14th, 2018 at 10:14 am
“This is why Joe, if it came down to Bradley Chubb or Saquon Barkley, as awful as the pass rush of the Bucs is, Joe would take Barkley because he could be an immediate impact player who might turn the franchise around himself.” – J0E
I heard one of the Joes say that if the Bucs got Barkley, then they should go after the guard also (during the Tuesday Ira podcast).
I have to say, I think that is a horrible idea. You’re talking about completely ignoring the pass rush. That would be job suicide.
There are plenty of RBs in free agency. Good ones. And others that are good will probably be released.
But there are next to no pass rushers worth getting.
And don’t expect the Bucs to go after Guard either. They like the offensive line the way it is, and know it just needs a little more time to develop together.
What I would do:
If Blount is released, sign him. Don’t trade more than a 7th rounder for him though.
If Bennett is released, sign him. Pay lots if needed, just make the contract team friendly so that he’s less of a hit later.
If we cannot get Blount, then get another good RB in free agency. They are and will be there.
First round, get a DE.
Second round, get a CB. (a taller one)
Third round, get a DE.
Forth round, get a RB.
Fifth Round, get a DT.
If the RB does not work out, then we have the vet for the year and can get one next year.
Pass rush has to be the main concern for this regime this year. If they don’t fix it, they will lose their jobs, so I do not expect us to go offense in round one…not at all.
So far as impact, a DE may not make a huge impact in year one, but he can still make a difference. And there is always the chance he can make an impact (that’s why we double up).
February 14th, 2018 at 11:46 am
Doug Martin isn’t responsible for anything. The GM, Head Coach are responsible for the Bucs failures. They could have cut Doug Martin and saved close to $6 million in cap space. They could have added RBs in free agency and had enough money left over for other players like a CB.
February 14th, 2018 at 11:50 am
Tmax you are one negative person. I would hate to be at your house around dinner time. This ribeye has to much fat in it. I’m tired of eating these loser cancerous fatty steaks.i should trade this fatty(cancerous) steak for coupons.
February 14th, 2018 at 12:26 pm
Joe has a great website, but he’s not very good at math. What’s the difference between the best running back in the league and the fifth best running back, everything else, offensive system, QBs, oline being equal? Or the best running back and the 10th best? Or the 20 best running back and the 40th best? Or the 60th and the 10 best guys on the street looking for a contract (think Jaquizz Rodgers).
In the draft, the distance in estimated net present value over 10-12 years of the next best running back at any level is not very much. That’s why teams don’t use high draft picks on running backs very often. It’s also why teams rarely let all pro offensive tackles or edge rushers go in free agency. The Rams got a first team all pro last year, but that’s so rare. Teams let top quality backs go all the time. Just look at how many top running backs are with their second or third team.
The standard deviation is also much tighter for interior lineman versus tackles. The difference between the 1st to 4th and 6th-9th best guards is much less than it is for the same difference in tackles. That’s why teams rarely draft an interior lineman at the top of the draft. There’s also the issue of substituteability down but not up. So, I get Joe’s point about Duncan. He’s supposed to be the best guard prospect in a decade, but if his measurables at the combine suggest something less otherworldly, he’d be a big reach at 7.
February 14th, 2018 at 1:40 pm
This is misguided, Joe. You’re soooo right to be desperate as a fan and pine for the Bucs to trade all of their assets to move up for a stud RB or to go out and sign every CB that is over 30 and well past their primes. I get it. I do. It’s been a decade since the playoffs.
But what you’re offering solutions for are merely the outward symptoms we easily see – that aren’t really the true root of the losing cancer that has ravaged the Bucs.
You build the line(s) first – then you get the toys to utilize them. The Bucs have been doing it backwards for over a decade and we see the results.
Build up the O-line into a force – then get the race car to blaze through actual running lanes. You build a QB assaulting defensive line – then watch how you can develop and actually start 4th round CBs who can excel when the amount of time they need lockdown coverage is reduced due to the amount of QB pressure the line is generating.
The solution is clear…
FIX THE TRENCHES, FIX THE BUCS!!
February 14th, 2018 at 2:41 pm
Dm is one of the primary reason.
If he played like a top 4 paid back it helps keep that sorry defense off the field
February 14th, 2018 at 8:06 pm
He cost us the playoff’s in 16 and our face in 17.
February 15th, 2018 at 5:39 am
Lakeland, you give Douggie a pass for failing the drug test??? C’mon man, you are doing a Tmax?Trump by claiming that is on the GM or Glazers. Properly place the blame on the GM for not cutting him and Koetter for not benching him. Sometimes you post like that cancer TMax; the Cleveland guy/Tampa hater who claims the Bucs are the worst franchise in pro sports though the Browns are 24-88thus making the Bucs look like the Pats. You trolls make me laugh, at least Lakeland syas he is an ex-fan, understandable but this Tmax cancer simply trolls and trolls. Joe loves the numbers so he is never going to be banned so us Buc fans just have to deal with him. Can we get a mute button Joe?????
February 15th, 2018 at 8:52 am
Let’s slide from our current position through trades and obtain another first round pick. Move down and draft Sweat over Chubb because Chubb is made for 3-4 not our trademark 4-3 front. We need speed off the edge not just another edge. We can also acquire Derwin James if we get another pick or if he rises up draft boards after the combine then we stay put and draft him there. I’m absolutely mind bogged that we haven’t drafted anyone from fsu since drafting Winston or any of the state schools for that matter except Hargreaves and you ppl think he’s a bust already which is totally not true. Let’s draft some athletes though I wouldn’t even mind us getting Calvin Ridley with the pick and letting Desean Jackson go altogether. Signing him has been a huge mistake in my opinion and he should be traded for some mid draft picks.