Deepest Threat
February 4th, 2018
(Photo courtesy of Buccaneers.com.)
The results of high-tech, official game tracking of NFL footballs and uniforms cannot be argued.
It’s real data, not the product of a part-time stats nerd trying to get us to believe, say, that all contact is created equal when it comes to yards after contact in the NFL.
Speedster Bucs wide receiver DeSean Jackson shows up prominently in the “NextGen” stats compiled by the NFL.
Among all NFL receivers, Jackson ranked No. 3 overall in “TAY,” defined as follows: “The average passing air yards per target for the receiver, by measuring the yards downfield at the time of all passing attempts that the receiver is the target. This stat indicates how far down the field they are being targeted on average.”
Jackson’s average TAY was 15.9 yards, meaning the Bucs fire loads of deep shots his way, compared to the rest of the NFL. Only Will Fuller (Texans) and J.J. Fuller (Cardinals) had a greater average, and each caught about half as many balls as Jackson in 2017.
As Bucs fans know, Jackson had an off year, out of rhythm with America’s Quarterback, Jameis Winston, and way, way down from his typical average yards per catch. But nobody can say the Bucs didn’t pump the ball to Jackson downfield. The proof is in the tracking.
For those wondering, Jackson had a higher TAY with Kirk Cousins and the Redskins in 2016, while ranked No. 5 overall in the NFL in that category. Jackson caught about the exact same catch percentage with the Redskins; the difference was he and Cousins connected on significantly more deep shots than Jackson did with Jameis and Ryan Fitzpatrick.
February 4th, 2018 at 9:03 am
So I conclude….bring in Kirk Cousins if he hits the market…..because Jameis can not hit the deep ball
February 4th, 2018 at 9:11 am
Everyone says Jackson was a miss but really he was open and if jameis hit him half the time his numbers would be nothing to sneeze at.
February 4th, 2018 at 9:23 am
Yet (based on stats within previous jbf article) only 1 target to DJax within the red zone the entire year (an incompletion).
DJax is a legit (and expensive) weapon who is not being used properly in this offense.
February 4th, 2018 at 9:38 am
I like how you slipped Fitz in there Joe.
I wonder what Fitz to DJax stats were?
February 4th, 2018 at 9:40 am
DJAX is being used properly….not his fault the ball is poorly throw….hey watch the 2 QB’s today throw on time….to the WR where he can make YAC….and balls throw to a spot before the WR breaks or as the WR breaks…the ball delivered to a spot !
February 4th, 2018 at 9:41 am
TRADE HIM…
February 4th, 2018 at 9:51 am
Get a QB with accuracy and Jackson will be great again !
February 4th, 2018 at 9:59 am
Would be nice to have him when we have a supporting cast.
But with 6-10 talent why bother
February 4th, 2018 at 10:00 am
For whatever reason Jameis could not hit a freaking deep ball.
The #1 overall draft pick needs to at least be better than Fitzpatrick at the deep ball.
I know Jameis was hurt. But his backup was 2-1 this year.
No excuses for Publix/Uber’QB. I’m now or never time buddy.
February 4th, 2018 at 10:02 am
Public/Uber’s QB*
It’s now or never time for #3!*
No more almost. Now. Or. Never.
I’m looking at Gerald McCoy, Mike Evans, Demar Dotson, and Lavonte David:
Failure is not an option. If you’re ok with it, go to effing Cleveland.
February 4th, 2018 at 10:07 am
Maybe it’s the offensive philosophy? When you play a vertical scheme the defenders are expecting 15 yard routes and go patterns. In a west coast/run heavy offense Djax has more opportunity to blow past a secondary trying to sneak up to the LOS, or jump short routes.
February 4th, 2018 at 10:14 am
Good thing dj didn’t come to otA’s
They couldn’t have used the work….
February 4th, 2018 at 10:17 am
Diax held up his end of the bargain.
2018: day less W’s, win more games.
DJax is a veteran and proven commodity. Public/Uber’s QB needs to take a step up. No more excuses.
February 4th, 2018 at 10:27 am
Correct me if I’m wrong, but I remember Winston and Evans first year together they were completely out of sync as well…. but came back the next year after the two of them focusing on their timing and Evans had a great season…. I believe they will have a much better connection next year and show what was expected to happen last year… I don’t understand why people think everything happens overnight, and when it doesn’t they are ready to move on immediately… that’s why so many players leave here and play much better when they leave, they’re never afforded the proper opportunity to succeed… that being said I still think baker and ward need to get the hell out of town and never come back
February 4th, 2018 at 10:29 am
Fitzpatrick didn’t get any OTA reps, or an opportunity to work with d-Jax, and he had no problems hitting him on a deep ball.
How does the #1 overall pick have a worse deep ball than an undesired qB from Harvard?
Damn shame!
February 4th, 2018 at 10:41 am
I admit I’m a fan of #3. But I’m not a blind sycophant. Even though I like the kid and largely admire his play I’m not blind to his off field and on field issues.
Having said that I remain hopeful that this is the year it all comes together for him. If we draft Nelson and some other OL continue to improve we should have decent protection for him.
If we fix the OL and find a decent (doesn’t need to be a superstar) RB all the pieces are in place for #3. Hopefully the last Uber incident has taught him a lesson. He should NEVER go out ANYWHERE there is alcohol or large crowds without a paid body guard to protect him from dudes trying to make a name by challenging him to a fight or chicks trying to pull a grab on his wallet. He’s filthy rich and can easily afford that minimal protection.
We don’t really know exactly how many games #3’s bum shoulder effected in addition to the three he missed. The entire team…helll the entire organization was out of synch from the get go.
I remain hopeful for 2018 but two players are key. First of course #3. He’s got to stay healthy and improve his ball security and decision making. The second is Noah Spence. If those two play to their potential I think we’ll be fine and players like DJAX will also be able to shine as a result.
And who doesn’t look forward to seeing how OJ and Chris Godwin play next year.
February 4th, 2018 at 11:11 am
6-10 talent
February 4th, 2018 at 11:25 am
I am a huge fan of Jameis, But he is going to have to learn to throw the deep ball on a consistent basis. He also needs to improve on ball security, decision making, and maturity in 2018 or fans are going to start looking at Cousin type QB’s. Jameis has his weapons and it bothers me to think if Cousin’s would have been our QB with all those weapons that we would have had a much better season.
February 4th, 2018 at 11:27 am
Is D-Jax a Crip or a Blood?
February 4th, 2018 at 11:37 am
Should have signed cambell
February 4th, 2018 at 11:43 am
Jameis looked great when he was injury free. I’m not particularly worried about Djax. The offense is good enough, what we need better CBs and a pass rush. With the loaded QB talent in the NFC South we can’t afford to have Drew Brees and Matt Ryan sit back and have all day to wait for the recievers to get open (especially with the dismal CB talent we have!). We don’t need an o-lineman in the first round, we need to fix the #32 ranked defense we have.
February 4th, 2018 at 11:44 am
There are some fargin idiots out there. Kirk Cousins? Stupid.
February 4th, 2018 at 11:50 am
Just asking did Jameis miss other people open deep or just the guy that didnt show up for voluntary OTA’s? Didnt seem to miss Godwin, or OJ, or Evans, or Brate, or Hump. Just saying think about it and SteveK you are so clueless bringing up that 2-1 Fitz stat. Just please learn some football before you bring that weak take to the table. 2-1 with no regard to who was played or what happened in the game you have to be kidding me. But then again thats what Jameis haters do, they look for things real or not to tear him down but thats ok when he gets even better next year, like he did this year even while being hurt, you will be the first one on here saying “oh Jameis is great”! You people are the most clueless fans in the league period!
February 4th, 2018 at 12:01 pm
Ndog Says:
February 4th, 2018 at 11:50 am
Just asking did Jameis miss other people open deep or just the guy that didnt show up for voluntary OTA’s? Didnt seem to miss Godwin, or OJ, or Evans, or Brate, or Hump.
———————
DeSean Jackson has 10+ years in the league. The guys you mentioned are all on their first contract, and trying to establish themselves in the league.
I looked up the stats for Fitz. He had 8 TDs and 3 INTs last year…
Two INTs came in the Arizona game when Jameis got hurt.\
NDog, what is your football background? How long have you been watching Buccaneers? Have you played organized team sports before, or do you just watch a butt ton of FSU games and that makes you a more qualified eye?
Just curious?
I am not a “hater” just a “pissed off loser Buc Fan”. Losing is not ok, and the QB is the most impactful piece on the football team.
Please continue to make excuses, but the bottom line is the Bucs are a losing franchise. As a vested fan, I take that personally.
You can put all the lipstick on the pig you want, but the fact of the matter is that we are a 5-11 football team, with a QB that is NOT elite nor showing signs of taking that next step.
Turnover Ratio is a helluva thing.
February 4th, 2018 at 12:03 pm
Jameis in 2017:
13 Games Started
15 Fumbles
7 Lost Fumbles
Even recovered fumbles leave to drive killers.
The #1 overall draft pick needs to be better. He is approaching small hands Shaun King territory.
February 4th, 2018 at 12:06 pm
We need to win ball games, and if you are ok with a substandard performance from a #1 overall pick at QB, along with a weak minded D-line molded around a #3 overall pick, then good for you NDog!
Glad that losing is ok with you! Please keep this discussion rolling, I am personally enjoying myself. I love hearing the loser mentality…
You think Jameis takes the next step in 2018? It most certainly is now or never.
February 4th, 2018 at 12:16 pm
Again SteveK you are showing your ignorance. When you cant run the ball and the other teams know what is coming the linebackers get better drops into passing lanes, the D lineman get off the ball better to get up field pressure. All of these factors lead to holding the ball longer which equals sacks/fumbles. And to answer your question I have been watching this team since 1977 and have been in that stadium every game but one since 1993. So I know what bad QB play looks like and I also have seen us run off Doug Williams, Steve Young, Vinny T all because they suck. But oh they did not suck they had crap around them and where not supported by quality coaching. See all of you people just watch the games must have never played, you see I have payed QB my entire life and understand that if guys run the wrong route just by feet it makes your pass look bad. Or if the line misses a blitz pickup and blast you and you fumble people will blame you. Just watch Tom Brady and see what he looks like with the pressure Jameis gets every week and Brady still has a good running game and good defense. Dude outside of our passing was anything good about this team last year? And all you want to do is rip the QB? Just think about that for a second and how dumb does that sound? So you think we had a good running game? How about a dominate Oline? Oh I know our kicking game was outstanding? Thats right we had a top 10 defense? No none of that but despite all of that we had a top 5 passing offense I guess that happened because we have a crappy QB. Dude listen to yourself.
February 4th, 2018 at 1:24 pm
Jameis has his faults but if you think he hasent shown “any signs of taking the next step” then you havent been paying attention. It sounds like you are unfairly putting to many of the whole teams problems on Winston. I do understand the irritation though. Losing for this long and hope for the future slipping awy is a terrible thing. #BucsLife
February 4th, 2018 at 1:45 pm
I never hear anybody bring up how he was always squinting in college . Starting to wonder if the issue with his vision has to do with throwing the deep ball. That has to be a major factor if he indeed has an issue with his vision. I remember hearing that before and don’t hear anything about it anymore
February 4th, 2018 at 2:29 pm
This is a team where quarterbacks block linebackers and slot receivers run 40 yards down the field to get a block in. From my limited perspective DJax didn’t block much or well and gave up on plays, a cardinal sin on a team with a qb that’s great at stepping up and buying extra time.
From a perspective of not going Me-Shaun, mouthing off or complaining, DJax deserves credit. But he’s not blocking and lowly-gagging through plays, he is a miss and needs to go. Now the key is “limited perspective.” I don’t have the play by play cut-ups the coaches see.
February 4th, 2018 at 2:39 pm
Godwin game 16…. Case closed…
Show up for camp and maybe we can blame our QB…
IDIOTS AND A KEYBOARD….
The #1 problem in AMERICA and for its QB
February 4th, 2018 at 3:33 pm
Kirk cousins, brady, brees, mariota, etc would have been broken in have. 7 step on 3rd and long with our putrid oline
“Koetter is a disaster”
Donald Trump
February 4th, 2018 at 3:41 pm
Ndog,
Thanks for the reply and bringing me back to earth. Been stressed out lately and the Bucs don’t help lol.
Good points.
I guess the fault lies with Jason Licht for rolling with Doug Martin. Hard to justify having a poor RB making top dollar. Adrian Peterson was out there.
February 4th, 2018 at 3:44 pm
I’m still not totally sure why the timing was off all year – in general it takes like 4-6 games for guys to get on the same page, yet it never seemed to happen. It could have been the lack of any real preseason rhythm, the stop and start nature of things, Dirk not playing guys much and losing practices to the storm. Then finally around the time they should have been getting on the same page, around week 5, then Winston gets hurt and clearly is having arm issues in the middle of the season. Overall it was kind of a wasted year, hopefully next season things click. My advice for Dirk would be to play D-Jax and Winston as much as possible in preseason and air it out over and over again – use preseason like how baseball uses spring training, just test out new stuff in game and don’t worry about the box scores.
February 4th, 2018 at 3:46 pm
DJax was one of the greatest deep ball threats in the history of the NFL, before coming here. ALL of his former QB’s were able to find him deep, consistently but, not J-miss! Yea!
Commit to enhancing the run-game and play-action EVERY 5 step drop. Oh yes, J-miss needs to work (w/ DJax would be novel) on his deep passes!!!!!!
February 4th, 2018 at 4:18 pm
The problem: No running game because the offensive line sucked. I have preached over and over that the Bucs need a good offensive line first to build on. Winston would be a much better QB if that ever happened. I agree with NDog.
February 4th, 2018 at 5:25 pm
Yeah SteveK Licht really screwed up this past off season as he didn’t address runningback or DL. Now he/we are desperate and every body knows it.
February 4th, 2018 at 5:57 pm
@getaclue
I think there may be something to his squinting and he may have vision problems.
You would think our medical staff would have caught it but I don’t have much faith in them going back to Carl Nicks.
JW is not a consistently accurate passer.
If you really watch you’ll see a lot of his passes are behind or high.
He almost got Brate killed last season and put Godwin in some seriously bad situations.
I think it’s definitely worth looking into.
February 4th, 2018 at 6:32 pm
I will just put this out there for the Jameis is inaccurate crowd. He had a higher completion % this year than all of the below:
Phillips Rivers
Russell Wilson
Derek Carr
ElI Manning
Carson Wentz
Marcus Mariotta
Dakota Prescott
Deshaun Watson
Jared Goff
February 4th, 2018 at 6:54 pm
^^^^^
That doesn’t mean he was accurate, just means he has some bad azz receivers who make dangerous catches.
Do you watch the games or just compile stats?
February 4th, 2018 at 6:59 pm
Yeah you are wrong bro just admit it. Don’t let the facts get in the way of your predetermined bias. But like every one else you will be eating your words sooner rather than later.
February 4th, 2018 at 11:19 pm
Ndog,
Add to that point, JW threw a higher % into tighter coverage.
( 1yd or less 20.1% of the time. )
Which means JW’s completion avg rose this year throwing into a smaller window.
He’s not throwing to wide open receivers to increase his completion avg.
February 5th, 2018 at 7:55 am
How did we let J.J. Fuller slip by us in the draft??? I mean he wasn’t on anyone’s draft board….ever
February 5th, 2018 at 11:12 am
Relationships are two way streets. In this situation, it is a three way street. Winston could’ve thrown better balls, Djax could’ve made better adjustments, Koetter could’ve played more to there strengths. Confidence builds with reps. Winston is a guy that wants reps. He has said it before, he tries to throw different balls to different receivers. Analyzing the deep balls, this was a 70/30 thing between Winston and DJax. Winston made more mistakes but throwing the pass is the harder part. There are great QB’s that don’t throw great deep balls and I have confidence Winston can get to average on this. His intermediate routes are excellent as are his short routes. As fans are guided to conclusions based on the commentary of the color guys calling the game, but they aren’t always correct. Watching coach’s tape changes reveals the truth.
I want to see the three of them put in the work. This relationship needs to work. Play action with a threat of a run game would help. For goodness sakes Dirk, work in a stem of routes based on RPO’s. They make the game so much easier for the QB especially early in the games.