The Value Of Running
January 22nd, 2018
Running back on mind?
Look, Joe is a quarterback guy. If your quarterback stinks, you have no shot in the NFL. None.
That doesn’t mean a team can just abandon the run.
Joe did a quick check on NFL.com and nine of the 10 top rushing teams this season made the playoffs. Two of the top four played in conference championship games yesterday, the Jags and the Eagles.
This is why, if somehow Saquon Barkley slips past the Colts in April’s draft, Joe has to guess and hope that Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht starts shvitzing like an Airedale at the chance to land the Penn State stud.
January 22nd, 2018 at 5:27 am
Barkley is a big back who is scared of contact.. definitely fast and explosive but i rather have a back like Leonard Fournette (wishful thinking) who is big fast and doesn’t shy away from contact.. if he is there and we take him i wont be too upset because he is better then what we have by a long shot but i would rather go elsewhere and get a RB later on.
January 22nd, 2018 at 5:49 am
Well with an average less than 18 carries a game ,he isn’t overworked as some
RB’s coming out of college.But then again neither was Cadillac Williams. The good news is that he has no serious injury issues. The bad news is that Joe might be
wearing out his keyboard blaming Mike Smith for not developing a DE. Since
we don’t know if Spence will return, Licht has to hit on more than DE and RB in thiis draft.
January 22nd, 2018 at 5:56 am
Joe, you can win championships and be competitive without an elite quarterback. The truth is there are only three or four truly elite quarterbacks in the NFL. All the rest need a competent running game to take pressure off of them and make them look elite. Barkley would be a great pick. But so would a lot of guys in this draft.
January 22nd, 2018 at 6:16 am
If Barkley is available there’s no way we let him pass by us.
January 22nd, 2018 at 6:18 am
I’d love to have him, but it would do no good with the current offensive line. No real push up front. Time to build front to back. I actually feel the browns will be better than the Bucs next year. Said the same about the jags this year.
January 22nd, 2018 at 6:23 am
Nah, if Chubb is gone the Bucs will trade back and take hopefully Nelson a few picks later while picking up an extra pick or two
January 22nd, 2018 at 6:26 am
Nelson is who I want. But I don’t think he’ll be there at 7. I just don’t see 4 QBs going that fast
January 22nd, 2018 at 7:01 am
Bob in Valrico, what makes you think Spence might not be here?
January 22nd, 2018 at 7:05 am
My hope is that we get three dline with our first 4 picks. Joe wasn’t kidding a few weeks ago when he said there was hardly any dline talent coming in free agency. I went through this list yesterday, and there isn’t even promising talent there.
Plenty of RBs and CBs though.
January 22nd, 2018 at 7:15 am
There are several veterans who could be available in FA and there are multiple RBs that can be had in the 3rd who would be better than what we have, so no need to over draft.
January 22nd, 2018 at 7:17 am
Every year in play off season strong running games appear….
January 22nd, 2018 at 7:35 am
I thought Colts were all in on Chubb….
I think three QBs (at least) will be taken in the top 6….
Prospects are the Browns, Giants, Broncos & Jets with a possible trade up from Arizona…..That’s 5 teams that need QBs. Then there is the Bengals & the Bills.
One or two of these four will be available at 7….
Chubb, Minkah, Bradley or Nelson…
If Nelson is the only player left, I think we should take him but I don’t believe we will…..we should get an opportunity to trade down with Arizona, Bengals or Bills.
January 22nd, 2018 at 7:40 am
I watched Fournette last night…..he was a real load until it started to become obvious Jax was running.
We need a back with real power….a sure thing on 3rd & 2, 4th & 1….
January 22nd, 2018 at 7:41 am
If Foles becomes a FA the Giants will take him…
January 22nd, 2018 at 7:43 am
We better hope a QB falls to us, who else is anyone going to trade up for? Chubb, Nelson, or Minkah
January 22nd, 2018 at 7:58 am
@ Joe
Since we are on the topic of “strong running game” I would love to see a poll of how that should be accomplished, and even more to see if Buc Fan’s would be OK with a Guard at #7 then best available RB in the bottom first/ second round for a “plan” of having a GREAT offense next year????
We need more JBF poll’s this offseason!!!!!! maybe 1 every 2 weeks????????
GO Bucs!!!!!!!!!!!!
January 22nd, 2018 at 8:16 am
Great running backs can be found in the later rounds. What we need more is a stud DE. I say grab Bradley Chubb in round one.He plays aggressive n violent. He brings a swag that’s been missing since the days of Sapp n Brooks. He likes to get in the offense head n his performance speaks volume. We should grab another DE in the second round then look no further than down in Cajun town n grab Grambling st martez Carter…he’s a clone of Darien sproles he has power, speed, n agility attributes that will compliment the likes of Carolinas mccafferty, saints kamara n falcons freeman. Let’s stop letting our division go out in bring in explosives on offense n defense while we go out in bring in b b guns.
January 22nd, 2018 at 8:42 am
Have the Joes even looked at the rest of the RBs in this draft class? It’s one of the best RB draft classes we’ve ever seen from a prospect stand point and Dikemper keeps going on about Barkley at pick 7. Barkley and a second round defensive prospect OR one of the top defensive prospects and Guice/Chubb/Michel/Love. One of those is obviously a way better idea. Licht is not a very bright GM so the Barkley at 7 fans may get their wish.
January 22nd, 2018 at 8:44 am
@tampabaybucfan
I would be pretty surprised if the Colts didnt trade back and get more picks or draft an o-lineman at their spot. They cannot continue to have their franchise QB killed. They have already made that mistake.
January 22nd, 2018 at 9:00 am
@ Patrick
Exactly…I think the Colts are throwing out smokescreens on Chubb & Barkley….someone will trade up & there goes another QB
January 22nd, 2018 at 9:30 am
too bad the players can not run from this pathetic franchise with ZERO hope for the future. it’s truly adorable reading those of you who actually think they will turn this around even though facts and history is not on your side. 16 years without a single meaningful win. the glazer clowns are not going to magically get it now. bucs will never win a playoff game until cancer93 and glazers are gone and that will not happen any time soon. simple as that. bucs are the only sports franchise in the world who can make the Cleveland browns look professional.
January 22nd, 2018 at 9:37 am
I think Chubb in 1st, 2nd CB Tarvarus McFadden, 3rd RB Rashaad Penny, 4th OT Desmond Harrison, 5th DT John Atkins
January 22nd, 2018 at 9:48 am
“Trollmaxcon”
January 22nd, 2018 at 9:50 am
Teams with a good Running Attack,Defense,Special Teams go on to the playoffs. Teams with a Top Passing Attack, No Running Game, Weak Defense wins 5 games and stay home.
January 22nd, 2018 at 9:55 am
Tmax, why would you think players want to run from this franchise? Think about it. They get over paid not to practice hard, play ping bong, and if they screw up, and fail the coaches, and front office won’t hold them accountable! Now it’s even better. They get to practice indoors out of the heat, with their favorite music playing. It’s more like a dance party instead of a training camp! Cancer93 will continue to carry the rookies shoulder pads after practice, and might even wash their feet like the Pope in the shower. Easiest team to collect a pay check from, why would anyone want out?
January 22nd, 2018 at 9:56 am
Lakeland, you are right that’s why I went with the best DE on the board and a great CB with great size in the 2nd. Penny is the sleeper of the draft a running back with over 2,000 yard rushing in a season is a beast
January 22nd, 2018 at 10:05 am
no to barkley for the simple fact that you can find the same talent/production in rounds 2 or 3….
at #7, I want chubb or nelson….if both are gone trade down to the bottom half of the draft and collect a bunch on picks….
select BPA along the oline or dline then target: guice, Michel, Ronald jones in round 2……at that point we would probably have 2 2nd round picks where we could select another o or dlineman…..
I just hope we don’t reach…..GO BUCS!!!!
January 22nd, 2018 at 10:06 am
I am fine with Chubb, Barkley, Nelson and Vea, in that order, with our #7.
It is way too early to discuss trading back from #7.
Since FA is lacking quality DEs, then we need to focus on DT, CB and consider OC in FA. Throw cash DT Dontari Poe, and CB Butler and a couple other players.
We need to retain CB McClain, OC Hawley, and other supporting Buc FAs, like all the young CBs.
January 22nd, 2018 at 10:07 am
Hodad
well you got me sir… you are 100% correct why would any of these players want to leave a place where popularity equals greatness and results do not matter to ownership.
TBBF
You know I am right sir… I am always right shall I remind you of the list of players that you were dead wrong on and I was correct on
VJAX being washed up
Martin being useless and washed up
Glennon failing
bucs not winning a meaningful game with gmc
murphy failure
vh3 total failure
dotson fragile bum
mcdonald fragile
etc… etc.. etc…
you may be an optimist but I am always right sir… 4-12 next year with gmc and 11-5 without gmc. write it down…
January 22nd, 2018 at 10:28 am
NO! You can find backs in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Remeber Kareem Hunt? So get that beast guard or an edge rusher with the first pick.
January 22nd, 2018 at 10:48 am
Speculating about the draft now is very different than post Free Agency. Where Kirk Cousing, Nick Foles, Sam Bradford, Teddy Bridgewater, Case Keenum, and Alex Smith all end up landing can really screw up the Bucs. Not saying each of these QB’s will be with different teams but just one or 2 teams ahead of the Bucs in the draft can mean that all the Blue Chip players can be scooped up really quickly by pick number 5.
January 22nd, 2018 at 10:50 am
The only way I would even consider drafting Barkley at #7 is if Chubb, Nelson and Minkah were already off the board and nobody was offering a trade. Even then I would only do it if the RB was at the very top of my board.
Licht needs to nail this years 1st round pick because there is so much value in a #7 overall pick. Just to illustrate that for those not familiar with the draft trade chart and the value/equity assigned to each pick – our #7 overall pick this year is worth more than the Bucs 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks combined from last year’s draft.
Chubb is the pick if he’s still on the board – but a trade down with one of the QB needy teams is the ideal scenario. If Chubb is gone(likely) and no one makes a viable trade offer – I’d go with Nelson. Nelson might be the safest pick in this draft as far as knowing what you are getting and ability to step in and play well in the NFL from day 1. Hard to believe anyone would think putting Nelson next to Marpet for the next 10 years would be a bad thing…
As for Barkley – sure he looks great on tape and will likely be a very good NFL running back. But as pointed out above – is it worth spending 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks (value wise to a non losing team) on one RB??
I looked at the past 25 years of RBs drafted in the top 10 the other day and wrote about it on JBF. The bottom line if you missed it was that only 3 RBs out of the 22 drafted in the top 10 were WELL worth their high selection. HOFers AP, Faulk and LT. 2 others were for sure worth it in Edge James and Jerome Bettis – and 3 others were kinda sorta worth their very high draft spot – Fred Taylor, Jamal Lewis and Reggie Bush (although Ditka traded his whole draft for #2 overall Bush so he was hardly worth all that).
So in the last 25 years (** see below) – out of 22 RBs taken in the top 10 – only 8 were well worth it, worth it or sort of worth it. The other 14 were NOT worth the draft equity paid for them and quite a few of those 14 were REALLY not worth it (#1 overall Ki-Jana Carter, #6 Lawrence Phillips, #5 Curtis Enis, #2 Ronnie Brown and #4 Trent Richardson to name glaring examples).
**The above discounts the last 3 years because we just don’t have enough info nor years of perspective yet on the rash of recent highly selected RBs (Gurley, Elliot, Fournette and CMac) – to be fair though, probably 2 and perhaps even 3 of those 4 will ultimately wind up in the “worth it” column.
Final thought. What happened the last time the Buccaneers selected a RB in the top 10? Cadillac Williams had a fairly special rookie season – a not so good 2nd year and then suffered a devastating injury in game 4 of his 3rd season – was never the same after that. Ended up with one 1000 yard season (rookie year) and only 4000 yards total in his shortish career.
January 22nd, 2018 at 11:24 am
Did anyone see our offensive line open holes last year?! Yeah, thought so! What’s the point then?
Trenches first, then skill players. Have we forgot about defensive end already?!
#BuildtheTRENCHES
January 22nd, 2018 at 1:04 pm
RB’s always scare me. The position takes a pounding. I love Barkley but does anybody remember the best PSU running back before him…KiJana Carter?
He was signed by the Bengals with the top pick in the draft. He blew his knee out on his third play of the preseason. A really sad story…especially if you’re a Bengals fan which I used to be.
I’m still reading folks here who thought we should have selected Dalvin #1 instead of OJ. Before the draft I understood that debate somewhat although folks here convinced me of OJ’s value.
But hindsight is 20-20…call it luck not skill on Licht’s part but whatever you call I can’t believe I’m still reading folks here who think we should have taken Dalvin over OJ. Or folks who wanted to spend some draft picks to move up in the 2nd and get him before Minnesota…a gambit Licht supposedly tried.
But look at what happened. Dalvin played less than a half dozen games and is now an RB who used speed as one of his greatest assets with a blown out knee.
He MAY come back…probably will come back but will he ever be the same player.
RB’s may be the most injury likely pick in any draft simply because of the position they play…the pounding is relentless. I’m not really comfortable spending a 1st round pick on one…especially given our needs in the trenches.
Signing Nelson immediately upgrades our OL and should impact our running game. Barber is NOT Fournette but he runs hard. Pick up a speed guy later on.
January 22nd, 2018 at 1:07 pm
BTW
There is a group of posters here who must hate Fournette!!! Tmax you come to mind. Fournette actually had the gall to give a Patriot defender a hand up after the play. What a total GMC wimp eh? Help an opposing player get up off the ground? Mercy Fournette where is your meanness dude. Do we suppose he serves ice cream to teammates after hot summer practices? *snark font off*
January 22nd, 2018 at 1:10 pm
@ Bonzai
He just has me worried that he will have more injuries like Jaquis Smith.
Hope I’m wrong.
January 22nd, 2018 at 1:30 pm
Defense win game remember 2003
January 22nd, 2018 at 1:32 pm
******************
BROWNS: SAQUON BARKLEY
GIANTS: JOSH ROSEN
BROWNS (Trade up with the Colts): SAM DARNOLD
COLTS: BRADLEY CHUBB
BRONCOS: JOSH ALLEN
JETS: BAKER MAYFIELD
BUCCANEERS: Minkah Fitzpatrick, Quenton Nelson or a TRADE DOWN!!!!!
******************
January 23rd, 2018 at 2:18 am
Even if Barkley falls to us, I say pass. To many other great players will be there and we have to many other needs. No to any offense in the first three rounds. Pick either DE Chubb, CB Ward or Safety James in round one.
January 23rd, 2018 at 2:53 am
^ No … you don’t take Derwin or Denzel over Saquon, just no … I wouldn’t take Chubb over Saquon either but I can at least see the argument for Chubb … not the other two guys though … I’d rather have Minkah that either Derwin or Denzel too!
Chubb’s ceiling is maybe Simeon Rice
Minkah’s is Jalen Ramsay and whatever he will become (HOF?!!?)
Quenton’s is the definitely Hall of Fame
Saquon’s is “Marsall Faulk with power” or “Eric Dickerson with WR skills”!!!!!!!!!
January 23rd, 2018 at 3:16 am
Pickgrin … GREAT POST.
However:
1. Barkley is more talented than every back you listed and considered a “perfect prospect”
2. Injuries can happen to anyone … we could take Quenton Nelson (who I agree is probably the “safest pick” in the entire draft … and he could have his career ended in his first game … you can’t predict injuries)
3. I was on the Monkah Fitzpatrick train a long time ago and I love that kid … but he’s not as special a prospect as Saquon … I would be thrilled with Minkah at #7 though.
4. Ditka didn’t trade for Reggie Bush at all … he traded his draft for Ricky Williams who was awesome … in Miami.
January 23rd, 2018 at 7:13 am
NFL Nut – not sure how I got Reggie Bush and Ricky Williams mixed up other than they were both drafted by the Saints and then played for the Dolphins. Neither one was ultimately worth their draft position based on further examination – so that brings the total down to 7 out of 22 RBs drafted top 10 who were “worth it”.
RE – “Barkley is more talented than every back you listed and considered a “perfect prospect”. – that’s pretty much what everyone said about Trent Richardson as well if I remember correctly. Plus its obviously a huge stretch to say Barkley is more talented than LT, AP and Faulk – his College #s are not as good as a # of backs on this list including some who were NFL busts.
January 23rd, 2018 at 2:28 pm
^ I don’t remember a single person saying that about Trent Richardson … not one. What idiot thought that?
AP: Just a runner … stone hands … not close to Barkley
LT: Barkley is a bigger, stronger, faster LT
Faulk: Barkley is a bigger, stronger, faster Faulk
Saquon is the best prospect since Barry Sanders … and he’s bigger, stronger, faster and has better hands than Barry too … but nobody had Barry’s agility which was superhuman.
January 26th, 2018 at 6:37 am
Barry had a running style I have not seen since. The way his knees cames up allowed him to move side to side in an instant. I’m surprised no rb has tried to run the same way