The One-Score-Games Fallacy
January 5th, 2018
Shared talking points on national radio
Hooray, the Bucs lost a lot of one-score games.
It’s meaningless drivel and we’re hearing too much of it from the Buccaneers themselves.
Joe gets that it’s better to lose a close game than get blown out. But there’s a word for a second-place trophy; garbage.
Close games are largely meaningless. Having the stones, the will, the makeup and the moxie to win, that’s meaningful.
Joe gets that Dirk Koetter needs talking points for his team, positive messaging for them to focus their offseason thoughts. But Koetter chatting about one-score games really made Joe ill.
Joe chewed up the Tums, though, and let it go. But then Gerald McCoy dialed it up yesterday on national radio, The Dan Patrick Show.
McCoy proclaimed to the world that the Bucs were slightly encouraged by going 3-7 in one-score games. He spoke of how the Bucs played “a lot of tight games and didn’t finish them.”
It’s just meaningless.
Here’s a look at the Bucs’ record in one-score games over the past 15 years.
2-7 in one-score games — 2003
2-8 in one-score games — 2004
6-3 in one score games — 2005
3-2 in one score games — 2006
5-4 in one-score games — 2007
4-4 in one-score games — 2008
1-4 in one-score games — 2009
5-4 in one-score games — 2010
4-3 in one-score games — 2011
3-6 in one-score games — 2012
2-5 in one-score games — 2013
1-8 in one-score games — 2014
5-4 in one-score games — 2015
6-4 in one-score games — 2016
3-7 in one-score games — 2017
So what should you glean from all that? Nothing. Worthless data. (But it is interesting that each Bucs coach, including Chucky, had a losing record in these games.)
Joe hopes the Bucs realize that.
January 5th, 2018 at 12:40 pm
This is what happens when you have no pass rush and the other team walks down the field at the end of every game for a game winning score or put away score. But yep lets just blame the QB on all of those one score losses, that has to be the reason.
January 5th, 2018 at 12:42 pm
So what should you glean from all that? Nothing. Worthless data.
^^BINGO^^
but some will blame lovie…..GO BUCS!!!!
January 5th, 2018 at 12:48 pm
This is the final results when you march up and down the field, just for a FG attempt. If you score TDs instead of field goals, you could actually put teams away. But the Bucs staff and the Bucs fans love the stats. Whoopie we are 4th in passing. Yes you are, but you’re also 4th in the NFC South!
January 5th, 2018 at 12:48 pm
We need to close out games better and get coached up better , is what I get from it, if we can turn them L to W , we would be great , it’s as easy as getting TD instead of FG
January 5th, 2018 at 12:58 pm
Well – its not hard to see that (aside from ’06) – when the Bucs win more tight games than they lose in a season – it gives them a winning record… LOL
Still say that 2010 Bucs team was the LUCKIEST team in NFL history (aside from the one horrible call on Winslow that lost us the Lions game I believe it was – and thus kept the Bucs out of the playoffs). 10-6 under Raheem was all smoke and mirrors – and LUCK. As exhibited by the 10 game losing streak the following year…
January 5th, 2018 at 1:01 pm
Lakeland- Don’t you dare go making assertions like that! You KNOW that it was ALL the defense’s fault!!!
(sarcasm)
January 5th, 2018 at 1:07 pm
^^^^^^^ HAHAHAA
YESSS…..hence the smoke and mirrors 9-7 year SOME gave koetter ALL the credit for
the defense wasn’t perfect lasy year and dam sure wasn’t this year
but looking back dam….it seems like scoring had a curse since dungy years with a few good to OK gruden offenses and back to curse mode
Nate Dubb
January 5th, 2018 at 1:10 pm
I’ve said this many times on here so don’t want to sound like a broken record but when you have watched Buccaneer games as long as I have you know one thing is going to happen. Bucs with a decade of slow starts get behind early and often sometimes it’s WAY behind. Then you can count on them getting themselves somehow back in the game. They will either take the lead, tie it up, or get within one score. Just as you start getting back into the game (late 3rd early 4th) the mistakes start happening. Interception here, penalty there, fumble, false start, holding. Again somehow they stay in the game and it comes down to one drive. They will either need to stop someone or score the winning TD. Most of the time they break your heart because they can do neither.
January 5th, 2018 at 1:11 pm
McCoy is a fine player but he has been here too long and his loser’s mentality seems to be acceptable to others. For anyone to try to make their outcomes in 1 score games to be a bright spot is just sad.
January 5th, 2018 at 1:12 pm
meaningless , however there is truth in everything….
NO WAY should a good offensive team have 7+one score years…(half a seasons of games)
that many shows the offense was inadequate those years
January 5th, 2018 at 1:13 pm
Most games in the NFL are close. It’s why point spreads are rarely more than a TD.
We can’t close on defense and never have been able to in the McCoy era. Not necessarily his fault – but that’s the simple truth.
We also have sh1t the bed in the kicking department too much in critical end of game situations.
Let’s look at all our close losses this year:
Pats – 5 point loss. Folk misses a 56, 49 yarder, and 31 yarder. At the end of the game we were down 5 when it could have been 2, or a lead. Winston only had 1 minute and no timeouts from his own 25; and still marched us to the NE 19 yard line. If Folk just makes the 31 yarder; and can kick another short one there; we win easy. Instead we’re asking Winston to convert a 20 yard TD in one play attempt after already driving us the field in less than a minute.
Winston again clutch. Rest of team not so much.
Buffalo Bills – lost by 3. We all remember this sh1t. Winston plays one of the best games of his life; throwing for about 400 yards and taking the lead in the 4th quarter by a whole TD with just a couple minutes left. Everything was set up for the defense to close this game out; and they completely sh1t the bed in every possible way. F*ck the Humphries fumble – that game is squarely on defense.
Greenbay Packers – lost by 7 in OT. Again – Winston scores a late TD with little time left to take the lead. Defense stops them and we win. Instead they march down the field; and kick a FG to go to OT; and then march down the field on the first possession and score a freaking TD that we all saw coming.
Because that’s what our defense does – collapses with a lead.
Detroit Lions – Winston ties the game again late. Defense forces a punt then offense gets ball back; but Koetter runs a dumb4ss screen that the D read on 3rd and 10 (basically a punt play-call) and we punt. Defense then gives up the FG to win the game. That’s on our defense again – and Koetter for being a tight4ss in a critical situation.
Atlanta Falcons – Bucs down 10 with like 7 mins left. Winston engineers a 3 min scoring drive to make it 3. Then he drives us down for a 50 yard FG attempt to tie – sails wide right. It was a 54 yard kick – so i can’t totally blame murray or just the defense. More of a team loss but still kickers make 54 yard kicks all the time in the NFL.
Carolina Panthers – up 19-15; Winston engineers a drive that kills about 6 minutes; getting to the Carolina 36. Doug Martin (LOL) rushes for a 3 yard loss. Next play Winston is sacked. Still hits Brate for 8 yards to make it a reasonable 51 yard FG attempt. Wide right. Not only that – but the defense then gives up an easy 2 minute TD drive for the Panthers to take the lead with no time left. Once again – defense / kicker not closing worth a sh1t.
Of those 6 losses – I can’t put any on Winston. I can put 1 on the team in general; but 5 of them were games the defense couldn’t close or a kicker couldn’t make simple kicks.
On the other hand; of our 5 wins; 3 were blowouts/not close (Jets game shows as 1 score but it was a late garbage meaningless TD – that game was never close). The other 2 wins that were actually close? Well those were won because of Winston game winning drives (Giants FG drive / Saints TD drive).
If the defense/kicker held their sh1t together; Winston literally could have had like 6-7 game winning drives in just one season lol. Talk about clutch.
Just imagine if we had a good defense and a run game… that’s the difference in 5-11 and 11-5
January 5th, 2018 at 1:20 pm
No one on here really cares for stats but there is one stat that you have to consider when it comes to the Bucs since they are so notorious for their slow starts. Not sure if I remember this exactly but when teams score a touchdown first they have a 66% chance of winning. If teams go up by 10 points they have a 75% chance of winning and when a team goes up by two touchdowns to begin a game they have like an 88% chance of winning. This is a Bucs life!
January 5th, 2018 at 1:25 pm
Losing close games are almost a certainty when you have a HC that doesn’t know how to score in the red zone or manage time correctly. And using a defensive 15-yard cushion scheme even when there’s a couple minutes left letting teams march down the field from whatever place on the field they’re on.
January 5th, 2018 at 1:30 pm
LC- I agree with you that our defense has been anything but indefensible! We really looked bad ALL year. Don’t get me started about the kicking game! However, you cannot deny that the offense didn’t exactly help in certain situations. The comebacks are awesome but we need to put the ball in the endzone to avoid having to be “clutch”. Don’t forget what turnovers can do too, especially to an already gassed defense.
We went 5-11 as a TEAM: Coaching, discipline, QB play, o-line, d-line, kicker, etc…
January 5th, 2018 at 1:31 pm
The NFL is designed to be a one score game league.
January 5th, 2018 at 1:31 pm
It goes to show you that every play call and every decision made by the head coach matters. Every possession and every down is valuable. Many people state (and already know) that games are decided by a handful of plays. There were too many questionable play calls this season.
January 5th, 2018 at 1:32 pm
Close only counts in horseshoes & hand grenades! Weather a loss by one point or one score a loss is a loss. From my chair most of the losses this season belong to the defense.
January 5th, 2018 at 1:33 pm
That is good info Lord.
Very interesting.
January 5th, 2018 at 1:35 pm
Yo Joe why did u skip 2007 seasons close game record.
January 5th, 2018 at 1:35 pm
“Show me a good loser, and I’ll show you a loser.”
January 5th, 2018 at 1:37 pm
Most of the games in the nfl are one score games. Parity. Everyone uses the same draft. The majority of games are won and lost by coaching decisions and adjustments. Dirk lost a few no doubt. At least he manned up and admitted as much. Lets hope he corrects his mistakes because there will be alot of one score games next year too. I wish he would either let someone else call plays or let someone else manage the game. He cant seem to do both efficiently enough.
January 5th, 2018 at 1:37 pm
The Pittsburgh Steelers are 8-2 in one-score games. But they also are 8th in offensive scoring and 6th in defensive scoring. You need balance in the NFL.
#WeaponsForWinston#
January 5th, 2018 at 1:41 pm
There goes Lakeland again spouting sanity!!!
“You need balance”
January 5th, 2018 at 1:47 pm
Lol Bucsfanman
You need weapons in all areas, not just #WeaponsForWinston#. You need defensive weapons, special teams weapons, running game weapons,offensive line weapons. The NFL consist of more than an passing attack.
January 5th, 2018 at 1:55 pm
There is one good thing about watching the Bucs…..it usually comes down to the last drive or even the last play……we are usually unsuccessful, but it is exciting at least.
This coming from a season ticket holder in ’76.
January 5th, 2018 at 1:56 pm
@Bucsfanman
In those 6 games Winston was
153/222 (69%) for 1939 yards (8.7 YPA) with 12 TDs to 3 interceptions.
Not sure of the fumbles but i know he had a bunch against Carolina – although we still had the lead in that game late regardless.
What is insane is to have insanely efficient passing numbers like that – but only average 20 PPG in those 6 games. If a QB is throwing that hot typically the offense should take advantage in the form of like 27-30+ PPG.
That points to the insanely bad / scared & playing for a FG type playcalling in the red zone; and likely a few key fumbles; on top of the missed kicks.
January 5th, 2018 at 2:06 pm
Excellent analysis LC.
Conclusion – Jameis played clutch in crunch time all year and our defense did the exact opposite giving up multiple game losing drives at the end of the 4th Q.
January 5th, 2018 at 2:08 pm
I read a article earlier on joebucsfan that said if there are no changes on the defensive coaching staff that what they are is blaming all the problems with the defense on the players and that would be my thinking also. what’s puzzling about this is, last year these same players meshed together for a pretty decent defense and this year they look like they are lost. also many players was complaining about the scheme even players that rarely said anything or complain but no coaching change on the defense I smell a rat. are the Glazers waiting to see if some other team take Smith off their hands because remember he did just sign a new contract and team Glazer will have to pay him if he is fired
January 5th, 2018 at 2:17 pm
Definitely does not mean NOTHING. Losing is losing and we have a lot of work to do.. but we were a lot closer to being a mediocre winning team (panthers), than a garbage losing team that gets waxed every week (browns)
So yeah, I imagine that’s appealing to free agents and therefore worth mentioning.
The Browns (0-16) were 0-6 in 1-score games. and 0-10 2-score games
Bucs (5-11) were 3-7 in 1-score games and 2-4 in 2-score games
Panthers (11-5) were 8-1 in 1-score games and 3-4 in 2-score games
Pats (13-3) were 5-2 in 1-score games and 8-1 in 2-score games
January 5th, 2018 at 2:40 pm
A better stat that would make more sense is how many leads did they have and games lost in the 4th quarter.
January 5th, 2018 at 2:42 pm
Yea man I agree, the play-calling was atrocious. The stats you mention make this offense all that much more puzzling when you just look at the stats.
January 5th, 2018 at 2:44 pm
It’s all Doug Martin’s fault, obviously. 😜
Thank god he won’t be on the roster next season
January 5th, 2018 at 2:47 pm
Funny that this stat means nothing, but the teams that have winning records in one score games tend to make the playoff.
To me this is a very symptomatic stat. The Bucs play a soft defense. Bend don’t break. This is our philosophy. Also, Koetter gets more conservative close to the end zone. His worst fear is the interception.
Think about this, be conservative in the red zone, say you have 5 trips in a game. Now start doing the math. Most would feel a QB that was aggressive and had two turnovers would be awful. Ok, so say the aggressive coach/QB scored 2 TDs and added a field goal. 17 points. Now take the conservative coach. One TD with 3 of 4 field goals (we would take 75% from our kickers) 16 points.. But most commentators, coaches and fans would roast the QB and coach for the two turnovers.
Take a conservative approach in the red zone, couple it with woeful red zone running and you get field goal attempts. Couple that with the worst defense in the league for most of the season and the worst kicker in the league for a portion of the season, you get losses.
Myself, I want the team that scores the most points. Playing FOR the touchdown, not FOR the points is the way to win. Every QB will throw INT’s in the redzone if they are being aggressive. The field is compressed, there will be traffic, every route can be sat on. The worst thing a QB or coach can do in the red zone is fear the turnover.
What did Koetter say when Jameis went for the end zone versus the Saints… NO, NO, NO… Tells a ton.
January 5th, 2018 at 4:09 pm
This is a losers debate. Every losing team can say the same thing. Yeah the Browns could/should be 8-8……bite me.
And what happened when we had a chance to make a run when Carolina came into our house? That was a very important game at the time in term of record and standings……..What happened was we got our asses kickied. We laid an absolute egg and played with no intensity and garbage effort.
How did we follow that up? By letting New Orleans smack the sh!t out of us effectively ending our season………Dirks team doesn’t show up when the games matter. They didn’t last year or this year.
I’ll wait to see what happens next year and will hope for better but my expectations are low……Their play has lowered it. And please, please raise your standards and don’t create any excuse for just losing by 3,4, whatever points. It’s win or go home in sports.
January 5th, 2018 at 4:32 pm
Little pansy never met a microphone or a camera he did not like. What a fraud!
January 5th, 2018 at 4:50 pm
In a mild defense of Dirk, and since it’s a long offseason when you’re eliminated from the playoffs in October, the Bucs played the most difficult schedule in the league having to play 9 games versus teams in the playoffs – and the Bucs only lost one game all year to a team with a losing record, and that was the 7-9 Packers who the Bucs lost to in OT, on the road. The Bucs played a ridiculously difficult schedule and they did lose a bunch of close games that were easily winnable. The Pats game, they lost because of the kicker. The Falcons game on MNF, lost because of the kicker. The Packers game, lost because of a defensive collapse. The Panthers on the road, lost because of a defensive collapse. The Lions game, lost because of a defensive collapse. The Bills game, defensive collapse AND Humphries fumbled the ball. You win those six games, and that’s a lot of good luck, the Bucs are 11-5. But really just having a better kicker should account for 2 more wins, which makes them 7-9. The defensive collapse at the Packers and the Bills shouldn’t have happened at all, now you’re at 9-7.
Anyways another fun fact I pointed out before, the Bucs beat just as many playoff teams as the Jags and Titans did and only trailed the Eagles by a single game in that category. If the Bucs played a Jags/Titans like schedule at worst they would have been an 9-7 team, at worse.
Again just trying to find some bright spots, some hope to latch onto as it’s a long long offseason.
January 5th, 2018 at 5:15 pm
@Pickgrin … “Excellent analysis LC. Conclusion – Jameis played clutch in crunch time all year and our defense did the exact opposite giving up multiple game losing drives at the end of the 4th Q.” You’re exactly right Pickgrin … but what about ‘the rest of the story’ as Paul Harvey used to say.
Bucs offense also only scored 21 point/game. Yes Jameis put up critical points in ‘crunch time’ as you call it, BUT … had we not wasted earlier possessions (on little things like turnovers or mediocre play-calling in the Red Zone) it wouldn’t have been ‘crunch time’ with us playing from behind. Had we wasted scoring opportunities on kicking FGs instead of going for the throat (OK, TDs), our record would’ve been much better than 5-11.
The defense is what it is (#22 in Points Allowed) because they haven’t gotten the horses they need in the draft or FA or through trades. Personally I’m very surprised we ranked #22 … and yes, I support bringing Smitty back because he had a bunch of marginally-talented defenders playing very hard IMO. After seeing so many starters and/or rotational players injured all year (some on IR, some just missed a number of games), I’ve quite surprised we did as well as we did.
January 5th, 2018 at 5:16 pm
So what should you glean from all that? Nothing. Worthless data.
__________________
Reminds me of all the stats Joe throws around for Polk County’s QB.
January 5th, 2018 at 5:23 pm
lightningbuc
Don’t mention The Bucs and Polk County in the same sentence. Every year Polk County send multiple teams to the State Finals. And send players to the NFL..Don’t mention he’s “Polk County” QB.
January 5th, 2018 at 7:22 pm
Defense – That #22 in points against is nonsense, they were 6 points from being in #29 place – which means if the Vikings didn’t shut down their offense in the 2nd quarter the Bucs would have been in the 30s. The Bucs also gave up the most points per possession on defense, meaning the Bucs holding onto the ball is what kept them from being #32 in points allowed. Finally the Bucs defense average starting position was league average, so the defense wasn’t at any particular disadvantage in other teams getting the ball in better scoring position. When you factor in points given up by special teams (3 TDs) and the offense (1 TD, well below the league average) the Bucs place in the rankings doesn’t change.
The defense this year was terrible, it was #32 in the league in multiple categories and as stated before it’s the first time in team history it’s ever been #32 in total defense. They were the worst defense in yards per play, points per possession, passing defense and sacks.