The New Free Agent Era
January 10th, 2018
Making it rain.
The backbone of a good football team is to draft well. And that hasn’t changed.
But per recent NFL and salary data, it seems for a team to be successful, it must spend in free agency to put it over the top.
That is the conclusion of Kevin Clark of TheRinger.com. He noted as the salary cap in the NFL has increased annually, and monitoring the spending habits of 2017 playoff teams, if a club wants to play meaningful games in January, it must spend money on free agents, and choose wisely, just as wisely as selecting players in the draft.
Incredibly, six of the top 10 2017 spenders in free agency, a period formerly reserved for desperate teams to throw money at anyone, made the playoffs: the Patriots, Titans, Rams, Vikings, Panthers, and Jaguars (who spent $20 million more than any other team).
Before the cap rose, the book on NFL free agency was that it was usually a bad idea. Sports Illustrated wrote just three years ago that some big-spending teams had learned that “shelling out cash to players who are nearing their 30s can end up backfiring in spectacular fashion.” That has changed—and quickly. All the room to spend has changed the way teams think about money. Multiple league executives, coaches, and experts told me that it is changing the way teams are built at an unprecedented pace and turned free agency from a last resort into a legitimate team-building strategy, like it has in other sports. Except, unlike the NBA, which had its massive cap spike two years ago to much fanfare, the NFL’s spike has been gradual. That means if you weren’t paying attention, you might not have noticed that the game changed.
“I can distinctly remember the days when it was almost every year, you had to let people go because of money,” Los Angeles Rams general manager Les Snead said. “Nowadays, I don’t ever remember thinking, ‘Uh-oh, we’re up against the books here.’ Now, it’s more of a strategy. ‘If we keep this guy, what does it keep us from doing?’ It’s not, ‘Hey, we’ve gotta do some things just to get legal.’ I think that’s what has allowed you to make, let’s call it ‘strategic football decisions.’”
Why does Joe bring this up? Well, there is no question the defense killed the Bucs this year. Linebackers were fantastic but the edge rush was hot garbage. And with the uncertain future of Brent Grimes, the team likely could need two cornerbacks and an edge rusher (Joe suggests two edge rushers) in free agency.
Think about it: The way this current defensive coaching staff of the Bucs has botched the development of both Vernon Hargreaves and Ryan Smith, does anyone not three beers-in trust or believe these same coaches — who are still on the staff — can develop a rookie corner?
And even if the Bucs do draft a defensive end in the first round come April, the vast majority of rookie defensive ends are not impact players in their first seasons.
If cornerback (two?) and a reliable defensive end cannot be procured this offseason, how does anyone expect the defense to improve?
And if the Bucs don’t at least break even in 2018 (unless America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston gets hurt again), it is hard to imagine Bucs coach Dirk Koetter, and maybe not even Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht, are around to see the 2019 season.
January 10th, 2018 at 11:01 am
I think we all know the real reason people are clicking this article…
January 10th, 2018 at 11:04 am
Darn…my wife got all that money and didn’t tell me? Her “live in” twin sister must have taken that picture. We will have to have a talk about that….in addition to other things.
January 10th, 2018 at 11:10 am
@joe…I agree….
the defense was trash and the defensive staff cant develop players…..unless we bring in a DE and a CB that are already pro bowlers I have little hope whoever we bring in will make an impact because they’ll have to be coached up and developed….something this staff has failed to do…..
que the excuse mob!!!!!….GO BUCS!!!
January 10th, 2018 at 11:11 am
Iif you have no pass rush, can you honestly evaluate the secondary????
January 10th, 2018 at 11:13 am
bucs back up qb played in how many games as he WON 2.. Make all the excuses but his WINNING % is much higher then Winston.
January 10th, 2018 at 11:14 am
BucOH…didn’t you know? Almost all the girls at EIU (Eastern Ill. Univ.) look like that.
January 10th, 2018 at 11:24 am
Too bad their arent any DEs this year in FA. Lawrence is not going anywhere, that leaves the best FA DE hope as Ezekiel Ansah. Which could be great, but hes an aften injured dude. After Anshah, who we still dont know if hell make it to the open market, the next best guys are Adrian Clayborn and 37 year old Julius Peppers
January 10th, 2018 at 11:27 am
and II dont care about corners. when our Dline is as bad as it is, corners are not even close to being the problem. Fix the Dline and we probably an 8-8 team with no other changes. fix Dline and Run game then we’re a winning team again, thats without caring about corners. They just need to patch the secondary for another year by paying Grimes what he needs to stay for another year.
January 10th, 2018 at 11:29 am
Nothing is changing Joe, not unless the Glazers do something dramatic or Mike Smith becomes a head coach somewhere else. When you made the case to keep Koetter did you think things would end up any other way with key assistants?
January 10th, 2018 at 11:33 am
Still can’t believe Mike Smith is almost as enipt as Lovie Smith. Just Brutal
January 10th, 2018 at 11:38 am
Bucs defensive coaches do a wonderful job with linebackers. Not sure if that’s because Jason Licht has such a keen eye for linebackers or if that’s coaching acumen or a combination of both.
January 10th, 2018 at 11:39 am
Feel free to evaluate the play of Brent Grimes and Robert McClain.
January 10th, 2018 at 11:41 am
D-Rome Says:
January 10th, 2018 at 11:29 am
Think about it: The way this current defensive coaching staff of the Bucs has botched the development of both Vernon Hargreaves and Ryan Smith, does anyone not three beers-in trust or believe these same coaches — who are still on the staff — can develop a rookie corner?
Nothing is changing Joe, not unless the Glazers do something dramatic or Mike Smith becomes a head coach somewhere else. When you made the case to keep Koetter did you think things would end up any other way with key assistants?
Amen brother! And some of you wonder why some of us think we’ll have another losing season next year.
January 10th, 2018 at 11:46 am
@admin
Sure!!!!! I see them run and try to cover for way too long and it is obvious that the pass rush needs to be fixed!!!! Just like Head Coach Koetter said at his end of the season press conference!!!!!!
Much better than blindly screaming that they should have blitzed and the CB should jam every play and be down by 40 in the first quarter and because the Defensive Coordinator did not do this and instead held pts scored to 22nd in the league. Only to scream that The Head Coach and GM must win but must flush the defensive coaches and start over!!!! That is not a winning formula!!!!!!!!!
Fix the “real” problems, the Trenches!!!!!!!!!!!
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!!!
January 10th, 2018 at 11:48 am
Spending big in free agency backfired for Licht when Lovie was here.
I hate to break it to everyone, but Licht is trigger-shy now. Don’t expect huge Free Agent signings, especially with big contracts around the corner for key roster spots.
January 10th, 2018 at 11:49 am
Bet you didn’t say that when E.J. Biggers or Myron Lewis or Mike Jenkins took the field for the Bucs. 🙂
January 10th, 2018 at 11:50 am
VHIII will get better. He had a bad sophomore year. It happens.
January 10th, 2018 at 11:51 am
Joe actually spoke with a well-respected former NFL corner who told Joe off the record that for (good) corners, in fact it does not happen — unless there is something seriously wrong.
January 10th, 2018 at 11:55 am
Hell draft a bunch of those girls and that stadium would be packed, and NO ONEWOULD BE A LOSER
January 10th, 2018 at 11:55 am
Once we cut Sweezy/Baker/Sims/Martin/Ayers we should have like $100 mill in cap
-extend ME (shouldn’t cost as much after a slightly down season)
-extend Kwon
-extend Grimes
Let’s say that costs $35 mill in cap for the year. That’s still $65 mill left to
-sign best available DE ($18-20 mill for Lawrence or Ansah)
-sign best available DT ($12-15 mill – Sheldon Richardson?)
-sign best available OG and C (let’s say $15 mill on O-line)
-sign a top notch CB ($10-15 mill – Malcom butler?)
-sign Carlos Hyde RB ($5-7 mill)
Then in the draft – go BPA but make sure to grab a RB & DE in the top 3 rounds… maybe something like
1-Fitzpatrick S/CB
2-Davenport DE
3-Rashaad Penny RB
4- OT (trade back up into R3 if needed to get a good one)
5-7 – CB/KR/OG
DE-Lawrence / Davenport
DE-Gholston / Spence / later round pick
DT-McCoy / Richardson / McDonald
LBs – Kwon/Lavonte/Beckwith
CB1-Grimes/Smith
CB2-Butler/McClain/draftpick
Nickle -VHIII/McClain
FS-Justin Evans
SS-Minkah Fitzpatrick
LT-Smith
LG-premium FA
C-premium FA
RG-Ali Marpet
RT-Demar Dotson / 3rd or 4th round pick
Keep Evan Smith or some other backup. Draft another G in 5-7
RB: Carlos Hyde / 3rd round RB / Peyton Barber
January 10th, 2018 at 11:55 am
It blows Joe’s mind how one game out of seven seasons can elevate a guy’s resume in the eyes of some.
In some circles, this is known as an “outlier.”
Or, just plain “lier.” (Ahem) [sic]
January 10th, 2018 at 11:59 am
“It blows Joe’s mind how one game out of seven seasons can elevate a guy’s resume in the eyes of some.”
Gotta agree with this. Falling for these one year wonders has killed us for a decade. And you would think people would know this as far as Clayborne is concerned (in Tampa).
January 10th, 2018 at 11:59 am
There is another side to this sad tale that I don’t believe has been adequately addressed- the fact that the GM and HC are dead men walking heading into next season. I know $, ultimately, does the most talking, but it certainly doesn’t help us attract premium FA upgrades and even assistant coaches. To me, that’s where ownership has completely crapped the bed.
Where’s the due diligence? The commitment to bring in the best? Now, that’s the point the Joes HAVE noted- that the signal sent by keeping the status quo is that they’re confident that the same people who brought you Swaggy Baker, a putrid D (no passrush), messed with Marpet, the inability to scheme for Brate, Jackson, Howard, Evans, Godwin and Hump + no running game, are the right people to get us to the playoffs?!?!
That all stinks to us- and I bet it stinks to perspective coaches and FAs too.
January 10th, 2018 at 12:03 pm
Joe Says:
January 10th, 2018 at 11:38 am
the defense was trash and the defensive staff cant develop players…
Bucs defensive coaches do a wonderful job with linebackers.
well LVD and kwon were both consider first round talent but were undersize….beckwith was considered a first rounder until he got hurt….they didn’t have to do much coaching for those 3 IMO but we all saw how kwon regressed a little this year and how LVD isn’t being maximized….
but that still speaks volumes about the coaching staff….either they can only coach and develop LB’s or the LB’s are that good that poor coaching doesn’t effect them nearly as much as the rest of the defense….GO BUCS!!!!
January 10th, 2018 at 12:11 pm
Duffner is a quality coach.
January 10th, 2018 at 12:11 pm
@realist says: That is not a winning formula!!!!!!!!!
dirk and smitty are not a winning formula!!!!!
your losing all credibility(if you ever had any)!!!!!
-you claimed dirk was a breathe of fresh air…..more like a pissy pair of jeans!!!
-you claimed smitty was a defensive guru….more like a defensive dunce!!!!!
once we grab oline and dline help in the draft and thru FA you will have no more excuses to hind behind!!!!!!
hold smitty and dirk accountable for their failures!!!!….they are on the hot seat!!!!….GO BUCS!!!!
January 10th, 2018 at 12:14 pm
Wow – Joe REALLY doesn’t like the current defensive coaching staff.
That is becoming quite clear as the # of articles weekly and even daily about this subject are becoming quite prolific.
It IS true that the Buccaneer defense had some serious problems in 2017 and cost this team a # of wins due to folding in crunch time.
But its also true that for a 5 game stretch in the 2nd half of the 2016 season – Smitty’s defense looked and played better than you or I or anyone have seen any Buccaneer defense perform in well over a decade.
So did the DC and his coaching staff (along with the players of course) that put together the best string of defensive games any Buccaneer fan has seen in forever… A coach mind you who has almost 20 years of NFL coaching experience, a solid winning overall record as a head coach in this league and oh, by the way was also a 3 time winner of the “NFL coach of the year” award within the last 10 years.. did that guy forget how to coach Joe?
Serious question.
I agree that the 2017 Buccaneer defensive results were largely an abomination. Bordering on intolerable to watch in a # of instances. 22 sacks for the entire year is a flat out joke and an embarrassment.
But is it even remotely possible Joe, that lack of “chemistry” in the backfield along with a SEVERE lack of talent at the Defensive End position is more to blame for 2017 defensive results than incompetency among the coaching staff?
Asking for a friend….
January 10th, 2018 at 12:16 pm
Frank Pillow Says:
January 10th, 2018 at 11:59 am
There is another side to this sad tale that I don’t believe has been adequately addressed- the fact that the GM and HC are dead men walking heading into next season. I know $, ultimately, does the most talking, but it certainly doesn’t help us attract premium FA upgrades and even assistant coaches. To me, that’s where ownership has completely crapped the bed.
Where’s the due diligence? The commitment to bring in the best? Now, that’s the point the Joes HAVE noted- that the signal sent by keeping the status quo is that they’re confident that the same people who brought you Swaggy Baker, a putrid D (no passrush), messed with Marpet, the inability to scheme for Brate, Jackson, Howard, Evans, Godwin and Hump + no running game, are the right people to get us to the playoffs?!?!
That all stinks to us- and I bet it stinks to perspective coaches and FAs too.
Exactly Frank, I completely agree with you. This is why I have said and will continue to say that the THREE [That’s not very nice. — Joe] that own this team have ZERO clue on what it takes to build a contending/championship team.
January 10th, 2018 at 12:24 pm
Damn! Make it Rain!!
January 10th, 2018 at 12:33 pm
Look, everybody who follow the NFL knows the BUc Defense was the leagues worst. Thats what happens when your mutual admiration society boost about talent and an offense. You actually start thinkin this is whats gonna win you games. But i clicked this article to offer my Bra adjustment skills to the pictured lady Because thats what good samaritans like me..Do!!!!.
January 10th, 2018 at 12:33 pm
Lord Cornelius…2 problems with your FA plans, 1 is Jameis, Marpet, DSmith will be due large extensions in the next couple of years, 2 FA are allowed to pick which teams they want to play for, nobody wants to play for a loser except Swaggy and Sweezy
January 10th, 2018 at 12:46 pm
Ryan Smith was a 4th round pick. I hate the guy more than anyone ever, but saying the team blew his development, come on, 4th rounders aren’t sure things.
For FA looking at the people that will most likely be available, ugh. The picking is very very thin once you account for teams resigning and tagging guys.
January 10th, 2018 at 12:49 pm
trade your early picks for late rounders and go after mid level guys in FA. their salaries will be greatly decreased in the coming years, so why pay a premium now?
January 10th, 2018 at 12:56 pm
HUUUUUGE problem with the FA plan and its biggly, why in the world would any FA want to come here with lame duck coaches and then you have djax wanting to leave and swaggy wanting to leave, this is no where near an ideal place for anyone to come and also the bucs are 5-11 and not on the come, cleveland south aside from the beaches is not attracting anyone
January 10th, 2018 at 1:07 pm
Slightly on topic, the Chargers just signed Aguayo.
January 10th, 2018 at 1:11 pm
Aguayo should have taken a full year off and then come back. Obviously there’s something in his head that is off since we know the kid can kick. I’m still convinced he’ll end up playing for a long time.
January 10th, 2018 at 1:12 pm
@BucFanFromOH- Busted!!!
LBs “fantastic”?! Um, I would say OK (hello missed tackles!). Clearly though, the least of our worries on defense. They better pray that Noah Spence comes back healthy and goes off even IF they land a legit game-changing DE. We are not going to be able to fix all of our issues in one offseason, it simply won’t happen. We need to be able to bridge some of those needs until we can properly fill them.
January 10th, 2018 at 1:15 pm
Dusthty- I agree with you on FA’s not wanting to come here with lame duck coaches, there isn’t any top guys going to make that move unless Jameis is an insanely good recruiter beyond expectations. However the FA class this year is remarkably thin, so I’m not sure how much it will matter.
January 10th, 2018 at 1:26 pm
I can tell a lot of you why players would want to come here. Money…and chicks apparently. And the Bucs got lots of it. I believe they are going to at least go after some big time names for spots we need in FA this year. Hopefully not gonna pull a pick up DJax and pass on Dontari Poe again.
January 10th, 2018 at 1:29 pm
Rod Munch Says:
January 10th, 2018 at 12:46 pm
Ryan Smith was a 4th round pick. I hate the guy more than anyone ever, but saying the team blew his development, come on, 4th rounders aren’t sure things.
his development was hampered by this staff…..his college film suggest he was a man press cb….he played a few games at safety when their starter got hurt….
the staff failed to develop him as a safety…..gave up on him and switched him back to cb, which hampered his development at cb….imagine how far he would’ve been had he played cb last year instead of sitting on the bench….GO BUCS!!!
January 10th, 2018 at 1:37 pm
@Bucsfanman
“We are not going to be able to fix all of our issues in one offseason, it simply won’t happen. We need to be able to bridge some of those needs until we can properly fill them.”
We’ve been doing that for the past 13 offseasons and it hasn’t happened. Glazers either don’t care or are just bad at finding good GMs. Licht has been the best in a loong time only because of his drafting abilities.
January 10th, 2018 at 1:38 pm
@ Guzzie
The cap is no issue. It continues to go up; and we’ll likely move on from other players in the next season anyway (think McDonald/GMC – just those 2 alone fress up $$ for Jameis).
THe FAs wanting to come here is always going to be a potential problem – and that applies to all teams everywhere. Can’t force a guy to want to go to a city or team they don’t vibe with.
I don’t have data on the “i hate tampa” lists of players so I’m not going to include that in any plans lol
January 10th, 2018 at 1:46 pm
Few years before Joe went there, Playboy ranked Eastern Illinois among top ten colleges to pick up chicks.
Something about all those eastern European/Irish chicks from Chicago. 🙂
January 10th, 2018 at 1:48 pm
@813bucboi
“his development was hampered by this staff…..his college film suggest he was a man press cb….”
Totally agree. After watching him progress this year in the 15-yard cushion scheme I would love to see what he could do at his natural press coverage.
January 10th, 2018 at 2:18 pm
It’s not really about the money! As the article points out the teams are floating in billions of green.
It’s about BAD contracts and BAD scouting for the Buc’s pro scouting department.
I never worry so much about a giant deal for a year or two…it’s the long term deals that frighten me. i notice the teams seem to be front loading the real money and making up a bunch of non guaranteed BS on the back end.
As long as you don’t mess up the future with a bad length of contract a big deal for a year or two is not that dangerous IMHO.
Having said that it’s very dangerous is your scouting department produced Ghost Johnsons and Swaggy’s.
Of all the coaching griping and conversation the ONE position I think needs to be upgraded dramatically is the NFL PRO Scouting department for the Bucs. Our FA’s have been unacceptable. Licht clearly needs help and he should check his ego and find it!!!
January 10th, 2018 at 2:18 pm
LC- Even if we do get a decent FA D-lineman, that 1st pick better be defensive end or corner. Minkah Fitzpatrick would make little difference without help up front. And, is safety a huge need? I would argue that it’s not. No, Conte/Tandy are not pro-bowl material but, they are serviceable. I really think we need to address the trenches to the point of going “overboard”!
January 10th, 2018 at 2:21 pm
“Exactly Frank, I completely agree with you. This is why I have said and will continue to say that the THREE [That’s not very nice. — Joe] that own this team have ZERO clue on what it takes to build a contending/championship team.”
Hey Joe I know it wasn’t nice, that’s why I typed it. I CAN’T STAND those three putzes! I just wish I could have a face to face with them so I could really tell them what I think of their asses!! LMAO
January 10th, 2018 at 2:29 pm
Robert McClain and Brent Grimes are considered better than average because if the team they play for and the fans and media that watch them. Overrated in Tampa but nowhere else. This franchise is done for there’s absolutely no hope if you think these are the two guys we absolutely have to have to be competitive. Fear of the unknown is another way to be a loser
January 10th, 2018 at 2:31 pm
813bucboi – Ryan Smith is garbage, literally the worst corner I’ve ever seen in my life. The guy has zero instincts, is awful in coverage and gave up the most big plays I’ve ever seen someone give up in a single season. The coaching is garbage in that they kept playing the guy even though it was clear he didn’t get it and he wasn’t improving. If anyone wants to find a valid reason to fire Licht, it’s the fact he put the team in a position where Smith was the 3rd corner and Conte was a starting safety.
January 10th, 2018 at 2:36 pm
Not – Grimes is a good starter, not sure where that hate comes from – he still can cover guys one and one at a high level and generally performed really well. However Robert McClain is maybe a 4th or a 5th string type guy and shouldn’t have been starting ever, not unless the only other option was Ryan Smith. McClain has value a deep depth guy but anyone saying he must come back, they must not have watched him getting torched again and again and again. I wouldn’t mind resigning McClain to a cheap deal for depth, but I certainly wouldn’t guarantee any money since it shouldn’t be hard to get someone better.
January 10th, 2018 at 3:11 pm
Robert McClain and Brent Grimes has a lot of experience playing in Mike Smith defense. That’s why they look better than the young guys.
January 10th, 2018 at 3:23 pm
Unlike you, Joe deals with Team Glazer when it comes to business (this site).
You can be critical without having to stoop to that level.
January 10th, 2018 at 4:34 pm
Can’t post what up???
January 10th, 2018 at 4:59 pm
I like looking at the pictures Joe Bucs Man. Keep posting these great articles!!!!
January 10th, 2018 at 5:03 pm
Just like Playboy years ago, eh? 🙂
January 10th, 2018 at 5:53 pm
Yeah Buddy!!! You do a great job man!! Keep on keeping on!!!! GO BUCS & JOE BUC!!
January 10th, 2018 at 10:41 pm
Twins for sure , both Top Ten !!!
Joe ,excellent scouting !!!
January 10th, 2018 at 10:48 pm
No 34 or 35 year old is a good #1 starter at corner , might be able to play at an elite level when 100 percent healthy but good luck on that over 16 games. Please show me a 35 year old corner that likes to take on blocks and tackle like when they were 25 , it doesn’t exist !!! Corner isn’t just about coverage !!!
Come on Munch !!!!
January 11th, 2018 at 9:15 am
Is it personnel or scheme? Maybe it is somewhere in the middle, but, I have to wonder if the sacks would have gone up had we not played soft coverage for much of the year…We were essentially giving QB’s easy three step drops that limited, negated any type of pressure we brought.
See the tale of the two Atlanta games. The first game we gave Julio way-way-way too much respect for his vertical speed. The second game – three catches on eight targets.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-7FSBoxLPE&t=570s
January 11th, 2018 at 10:02 am
Without nipples… boobs would be pointless!