Jameis No. 8
August 26th, 2017
Valuable or twisted stats?
Joe enjoys the work of the Football Outsiders crowd much more than the PFF tribe. Joe’s been over this several times.
You can twist numbers in any way to prove a point. Joe learned this in high school and it is still true today. Just because someone slaps a number on it doesn’t make it so.
And while Joe enjoys the work of Scott Kacsmar, he waded into muddy waters trying to find the most valuable quarterbacks in the NFL. Kacsmar hatched a formula that calculates how little help quarterbacks got from various elements of their team. If the quarterback puts up big numbers and the rest of the team has lesser stats, then the quarterback value increases.
Using this formula, Kascmar, typing for BSPN, believes Jameis is the No. 8 most valuable QB simply because he got little help from his team last year.
The running game was 28th in EPA, the defense was 16th, and the special teams was also nothing special, at 15th. The Buccaneers are counting on the additions of running back DeSean Jackson and tight end O.J. Howard to boost Winston’s success in his third season after he ranked 15th in EPA in 2016.
Couple of things here. First, the Bucs defense could be classified into two categories. BB (before bye) and AB (after bye). Before the bye the defense was too often woeful. After the bye, it was one of the stingiest in the NFL, allowing just 17 points per game.
Second — and this is really where Kacsmar all but blows up his own findings — he has Sideshow Bob as the No. 6 valuable quarterback.
Come. On!
Joe’s not going to get into the nonsense that is surrounding Sideshow Bob, but much more learned football men than Kacsmar who are employed in the NFL won’t give Sideshow Bob the time of day. Why? He sucks! It is no more complicated than that.
Look at all the hoodlums the NFL has employed in the past and the present. Even guys who were linked to murders and dudes who beat up women. If they could make a difference on the football field, they always found a sympathetic owner. How come, if Sideshow Bob was any good, the 49ers were one of the worst teams in the NFL the past two seasons? Why is it that 49ers general manager John Lynch was so hot in the pants to replace Sideshow Bob with Kirk Cousins (who Kacsmar has at No. 5)?
Sideshow Bob is unemployed for the very same reason Tim Tebow is unemployed. Why? Because Tebow stinks out loud as an NFL quarterback.
Both of those guys were spread-option quarterbacks trying to play in the NFL world, though Sideshow Bob was successful playing for a quarterback wizard named Jim Harbaugh.
And yes, Tebow won a playoff game, and Sideshow Bob won four, which many NFL quarterbacks have never done, including Matthew Stafford, Marcus Mariota and Sam Bradford, who also made Kacsmar’s list. Yet Tebow, like Sideshow Bob, can’t sniff an NFL tryout.
The fact Kacsmar has Sideshow Bob on this list pretty much renders it totally worthless and demonstrates just what Joe has typed many times: stats are not absolute and can be misleading.
August 26th, 2017 at 12:09 pm
sideshow bob is just an ignorant puppet being pulled around by his shorties…. sad sad situation. great analogy joe
August 26th, 2017 at 12:13 pm
How can cousins be 5th when he had garçon Jackson and reed? Along with a decent maybe inconsistent running game
August 26th, 2017 at 12:15 pm
Why? He sucks! It is no more complicated than that.
Actually it’s far more complicated and you know it. Murderers would be given more slack than anybody identified as “unpatriotic”. That is one of the greatest offenses a player can commit.
But that aside…Muhammed Ali was scorned and considered a traitor for refusing to accept the draft. Tommie Smith and John Carlos were also scorned for raising their fists. And NONE of these players would be multimillionaires without Curt Flood’s refusal to accept the “reserve clause” creating the FA market in all sports.
I’m of mixed opinion here. I respect why Kap is protesting…don’t know how many videos one needs to see of cops gunning down black people…and before anybody wails what about the black people who gun down cops…they are two separate issues. White people shoot cops all the time but white people are rarely shot in broad daylight for simply reaching to produce ID requested by the SC Highway patrolman who shot the dude. How many white folks get shot in the back as they are fleeing? We now see these videos.
Having said that…Kap could find a more appropriate venue. The NFL is a business and they give Kap a tremendously loud megaphone to state his views…outside of the stadiums and gametime. I respect that most folks want their sports to be entertainment and not a time to have to reflect on their social conscience.
As far as Kap sucking…I’m not suggesting he’s a world beater…but he’s clearly more talented than Fitz..McClown…dozens of other backups.
Again…when the Niners were a good team with a great coach…a former NFL QB himself with Harbaugh…Kap reached the Super Bowl…he beat out Alex Smith and the next year he made it to the NFC Championship game. He HAS scoreboard! When Harbaugh left the entire Niner team went into the crapper including Kap.
So it’s probably a fair assessment that Kap is simply not the kind of player as #3 who can get it done under almost any circumstance. But given the right coaching…the right support from a talented team around him he’s not a bad player.
A question…which QB that is currently available could reach a SB?
August 26th, 2017 at 12:35 pm
Kap used the shield as a tool. Nothing is greater than the shield. His talent certainly doesn’t outweigh what he did to the shield. Therefore he’s unemployed.
August 26th, 2017 at 12:39 pm
Helluva question.
August 26th, 2017 at 12:40 pm
Same thing with Tebow. Used the NFL as a tool…that and his talent doesn’t outweigh the shield. Therefore they’re both unemployed.
LOL I do love Stpete’s long drawn out posts, but I prefer to keep it simple myself.
August 26th, 2017 at 12:43 pm
stpete
kap keeps changing what his protest is all about. he has not communicated very well or intelligently. his girlfriend is pulling all the strings. if it was strictly about social injustice that would be one thing but given her agenda both past and present it is unquestionably flat out anti american big difference between protesting social injustice and being flat out anti american.
August 26th, 2017 at 12:45 pm
SPBF
Respect! ✊🏾
August 26th, 2017 at 12:46 pm
Sideshow Bob? I clicked on the link and immediately spit out my water! THAT was funny Joe. Thanks for making my Saturday!
August 26th, 2017 at 12:55 pm
oh and by the way Kap broke one of the sacred man laws to obtain his pathetic girlfriend. she was with a teammate first… maybe it should be sloppy second bob instead of sideshow bob
August 26th, 2017 at 12:57 pm
Kap is still unemployed because his distraction simply does outweight his talent. In the NFL right now, if he was good enough, he would have a job as a QB. It’s a talent thing, not an “injustice” thing.
August 26th, 2017 at 12:58 pm
Aaaaaaaaand it’s off to moderation I go…again.
August 26th, 2017 at 12:58 pm
🙂
August 26th, 2017 at 1:01 pm
I agree with these guys right to protest but make a difference do something positive with it don’t make it about yourself. secondly, his play has been horrible.
regardless of the side you are on both tebow and kap create a complete and total circus environment that NO EMPLOYER should be forced to tolerate.
I would have a lot more respect for kap if his thoughts were his own and not some radical skanks.
August 26th, 2017 at 1:15 pm
PLEASE..Muchtodoaboutnothing!!!!!!!!!!! Just bring the ship in Bucs. Take us to the playoffs and Mike Johnson will be happy! I’m tired of us not doing what we say we will do every GD year!
August 26th, 2017 at 1:28 pm
Buccaneers are counting on the additions of running back DeSean Jackson.
I stopped reading after they called DJax a RB.
Good to c u back 87!~
August 26th, 2017 at 1:39 pm
@Joe
Joes, I love your site, the commentators to each post and this now united and diverse community. I love the expanding podcast network and have listened to every episode of all four shows. I even get my Rock Riley videos in there. Most of all I love my Buccaneers!!!
With that though Joes, and fellow fans I’d like to bring up a pretty serious issue for me. I was a frequent poster and last season I stopped. I continued to read the site and share in the information, humor and insights that are provided daily by all.
My reasoning for not posting was simply over your handling of the Colin Kaepernick issue. Bucs fans, this is America and we share this country it’s ideals, it’s identity and its history. Please understand that this shared legacy and future has not always been fair or positive for people in different communities for a variety of different reasons usually because of differences in skin color, economic background or religion. These people have a right and a responsibility to strive to better this situation by PEACEFUL MEANS NECESSARY TO BE HEARD. You also have every right to disagree.
To call Colin Kaepernick, a man of African descent Sideshow Bob and to poke flies at his features as an African American is a rascist act. You are comparing his beautiful prominent Afro hairstyle and a part of his culture to an unhinged cartoon character for laughs and to discredit him. It’s not funny and you’re better than that. Standing or sitting for the national anthem is a personal choice. Kaepernick made that choice in response to several African American men and women who were unarmed, not accused of committing crimes but were senselessly gunned down in cold blood by police officers who are sworn to serve and protect them. I don’t get the joke; I don’t understand the need to simplify it and I don’t appreciate the need to erode his message. Ok so say he’s a terrible quarterback, you’d be wrong because he led a team to a super bowl and is better than at least 10 starters and all of the backups in the league just off of talent regardless of scheme. Say he’s a terrible person, yet he’s showing strength of character, compassion and sacrifice.
Sony point is Joes and posters we are better and smarter than this and we can discuss without insult or outrage a sensitive issue or topic. Joes please use nuance and tact going forward with this and other issues of this kind. With the country as divided as it is this will or continue and spread. What side of history do you want to be on. Sorry for the long post but this needed to be said. Thank you for reading.
Speak softly and carry a big MUTHAF~€£ING STICK!!! Go BUCS!!!
August 26th, 2017 at 1:46 pm
Shakespeare was right when he penned ‘Much Ado About Nothing’ as a comedy. Started reading this article thinking that Jameis has moved up in the media world … as in, he’s now in the Top 25% of all NFL QBs. Wrong! By the time I’d finished reading, I had no idea how valuable he is. But I do know this: by the end of this season, there won’t be any question how valuable Jameis is to this Bucs team.
And St Pete, as far as Kapernick goes, I totally agree that it’s much more complicated than simply his talent. NFL owners have billions tied up in their teams. To us it’s sport; to them it’s a business. Kapernick became a distraction when he chose to not stand for the National Anthem. And the longer it went on, the bigger distraction he became. Owners don’t like distractions who reflect negatively on their team (i.e., their business). Guys like you & I & millions of others fought to defend his right to protest things in this nation that we don’t like … and I suspect all of us would do it again. I can respect what he’s protesting, but not the manner in which he chose to protest. Anyone who disrespects our flag and what she stands for loses my respect.
August 26th, 2017 at 1:54 pm
you know why this once great country is divided. instead of laughing at innocence jokes and living life people now live virtually looking to pounce on any comment or statement and cry race or whatever the over sensitive topic of the day is… all these thin skin folks with hidden and not so hidden agendas have rendered many important words meaningless and racist is quickly becoming one of those words.
turning everything into a protest and the over sensitive PC crowd are exactly why trump was elected. regular everyday people with jobs who actually fund all the social programs are sick and tired of every damn thing in the world being turned into a race, religion or gender war. it’s a pansy arse world we live in very sad…. no wonder so many of you support soft arse losers like gmc and martin. no standards.
August 26th, 2017 at 2:04 pm
maybe if the entire country was not walking on eggshells over the pathetic over sensitive BS that goes on today there would not be the need for so many anti-anxiety medications and opiates.
August 26th, 2017 at 2:20 pm
I’ve yet to read or hear one viable argument or defense for Kap as to why not 1 NFL team out of 32 will hire him since he’s been unemployed.
HarlemBuc…I read your whole post hoping for that to happen. Once again it never happened. Boo Booooo Boooo
Can’t one of you give me a solid reason in his defense? Or is the NFL racist too like everything else not black in America. I mean hell I could call Kap any random word and I’d be labeled a racist. Hell for instance Kap’s a toenail. Oh hell a toenail? That must be racist… YES that’s the state of America today. The racist America that elected it’s first black president 9 years ago with majority white voters is suddenly a racist nation like never before.
Kap’s a cucumber…I know… I’m a racist too for thinking that.
August 26th, 2017 at 2:21 pm
I concur fully Defense!
August 26th, 2017 at 2:22 pm
Tmax…I was typing basically what you just said. It’s awaiting mod. Should go through.
August 26th, 2017 at 2:35 pm
And while we are on this subject I will deviate from my “no politics or domestic issues” policy on a Football site.
……..
1. Cops killed nearly twice as many whites as blacks. According to data compiled by The Washington Post, 50 percent of the victims of fatal police shootings were white, while 26 percent were black. The majority of these victims had a gun or “were armed or otherwise threatening the officer with potentially lethal force,” according to Mac Donald in a speech at Hillsdale College.
Some may argue that these statistics are evidence of racist treatment toward blacks, since whites consist of 62 percent of the population and blacks make up 13 percent of the population. But as Mac Donald writes in The Wall Street Journal, 2009 statistics from the Bureau of Justice Statistics reveal that blacks were charged with 62 percent of robberies, 57 percent of murders and 45 percent of assaults in the 75 biggest counties in the country, despite only comprising roughly 15 percent of the population in these counties.
Say what you will but when a smaller population commits most of the violent crimes THAT says something.
August 26th, 2017 at 2:42 pm
The elephant in the room, the fundamental to which we must never refer, is propensity toward criminality. It is simply a fact that blacks, and particularly young black men, engage in lawless conduct, very much including violent conduct, at rates (by percentage of population) significantly higher than do other racial or ethnic groups.
The Media is creating, AND compounding the situation. No excuses for ANY Cop that uses his gun first in a cowardly act but C’mon people wake up!. Do you ever see any videos of cops killing white people when they kill TWICE as many whites as blacks??? No? well geeez I wonder why not?
August 26th, 2017 at 2:59 pm
lol SB…I could blow a few holes through some of your 2 posts. I could give you a defense from hell as to why the crime rates are the way they are in black communities, but I won’t do it here. I actually could talk about that subject all day long and into the night. Nothing lights my fire more than the “R” word. I despise racism in any form. Never judge a book by it’s cover. No matter what they look like. The best thing that could happen to America is that more and more peeps have bi-racial babies as the older gen dies off. That’s my wish. More, more, more. Crank those kids out. lol
I’ve typed far more than I wanted to on this subject. So ENOUGH!
August 26th, 2017 at 3:32 pm
@tmax… so racism is funny to you? Like seriously making fun of things that are genetic and people have no control over is your choice of entertainment?
Has nothing to do with Trump or “PC” culture and everything to do with right and wrong dude.
@87… not sure why there’s so much tension in your post but I’d love to engage in a football conversation with you. Colin Kaepernick is one of the best ZONE READ option qb’s in NFL history. I’d love for you to review his stats from the super bowl run season where he was running for over 100 yards and throwing for 200 in each playoff game. This was when he had actual productive NFL level talent around him. Last season he was saddled with a team in transition and a ton less talent… sound familiar? Our Bucs just went through the exact same thing. If you can name me 3 better dual threat qb’s in nfl history then hey gold star for you but I’m pretty sure you can’t.
Again nothing to do with race this is stats and the fact that he actually took a team to a super bowl and was a stadium black out away from winning it!!!
@ SB… if whites make up more of the total population than blacks, this statistic should make mathematical sense right. With population always use percentages rather than raw numbers to get a full scope.
2. If you’re using data from 2009 and the rash of killings relevant to this argument and media coverage begins in 2014, what are you point out?
3. So are you saying that young black men engage in more criminal acts than whites as a fact? Or is over policing an actual issue. I live in NYC where stop and frisk and the broken windows theory are preferred police methods and have been proven by human rights groups, university studies and legal societies to Ben flawed by skewing data and actually being a symptom of the disease they are supposed to fight.
August 26th, 2017 at 3:34 pm
Well said StPete…nothing to add to a great post
August 26th, 2017 at 3:39 pm
Also SB your irrational and unfounded fear of young black men(because you totally ignored the fact that women are subject to this brutality as well) is the main reason that this behavior is tolerated by society and why players such as Kaepernick have to take a stand on this issue… but hey as long as they throw the pigskin and entertain you and be “good” boys you’ll gladly turn a blind eye to the fact that these are human beings and that children and not men are also being killed… because a 13 year old boy deserves to die for his sweatshirt choice right? That’s Trayvon Martin btw please look up his story beyond the narrative the news media feeds you.
Thank you
August 26th, 2017 at 3:58 pm
More garbage from media:
Bucs ranked 23rd, behind Chargers, Ravens and Redskins
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2728749-nfl-power-rankings-2017-breaking-down-preseason-look-at-leagues-pecking-order
August 26th, 2017 at 4:05 pm
While I respect the 1st Amendment rights of all, some commenters are clearly lacking in a historic knowledge and have substituted woefully ignorant opinions for
facts buoyed by historical FACTS.
Perhaps an honest look at the history of Florida (Spanish colony – American State) in general and the founding of Tampa Bay by runaway slaves, in particular, may provide some insight into the problems faced by all Floridians today.
Then again, ignorance may truly be bliss for those who quote FBI statistics without context or full content to justify their perpetual ignorance.
Go Bucs…!!!
August 26th, 2017 at 5:13 pm
Guys settle down. Before I grew up I sold coke and crack in the worst hoods in Ft. Lauderdale. I can tell you all about Sistrunk and the sh!t plants where we got parleys the size of your finger for $10 bucks and I’m White. I was accepted by ALL of the hood because I indulged in the same law breaking criminal behavior. I have been to prison several times after my release from the military. I am not speaking like some dumb phucking white person that has never experienced adversity. I have been there. \
ALL I AM SAYING is Keep an open mind to the entire picture.
August 26th, 2017 at 6:48 pm
but I prefer to keep it simple myself.
I totally respect that! Simple people should always keep it simple.
Harlem Buc
I would say I feel your pain but I’m white so that would be a stretch. But I was raised white trash right across the street from the black hood We were all the same except for color. My father’s friends in 1956 ripped him for letting me bring my best friend in the 3rd grade into our home….he was of course from the “other” side of the street. My father was a wife beating, alcoholic, 7th grade dropout…but he did manage to teach me just one lesson…not to lead my life in fear of or putting down “others”.
SB you need to read JD Vance’s Hillbilly Elegy. He writes of MY people!
The poor white trash communities have the exact same pathologies as the poor black communities. Hopelessness and a lack of parenting does that to HUMANS no matter their color.
D.R. I suspect we are in agreement. Perhaps my writing was not clear. I get that the NFL is a business and that the fans deserve their entertainment free of social conscience or responsibility.
And yeah we both served but when I went to Vietnam it wasn’t for a piece of cloth…or a song…but rather the ideas represented by those SYMBOLS.
We do have divisions to heal…our country has a long and complicated history.
And so the man who wrote one of the ideas I fought for…”All men are created equal” owned slaves and signed off on a Constitution that didn’t permit women to vote and black were legally counted as 3/5ths of a person. We’ve never been perfect but I’ve always felt we’re great. And over the long haul we’ve grown.
I feel no need to “make America great again” because America has always been great!
August 26th, 2017 at 7:15 pm
Harlem.. You kind of answered you question. The zone-read QB. One of the issues is that it requires a big commitment from an organisation to go to a zone read offense. The problem is that it exposes the QB to so many hits and you have to pay the QB the most amount on the team. This was the #1 reason I didn’t want Mariota. I think he is really fun to watch but he is way too exposed. When these guys realise running shortens their careers and prematurely wears them out. QB is the most mentally challenging position to play. For the read option guy it is also one of the most physically demanding. The read option guys burn out fast. RGIII was always one of my favorites to watch. The future is still out on Lamar Jackson, he is the most electric combination of running and passing since Vick. As a sidenote, has anyone imagined Micheal Vick running the modern read option.
I hate to say this as Kap was one of the most entertaining QB’s I ever watched, but he’s lost it. When he came to RJS in 2013, I thought the position might have been reinvented. Last year, he was a shell. Slow to release the ball, slow to decide to run, and he has lost a step. There is a part of me that wonders if he has similar issues to Freeman. The alarming weight loss Kap had during an offseason was crazy. He just doesn’t have the same energy or passion for the game that he brought early on. The fact he can’t get a job has little to do with the protest. It takes more than people realise to stay on an NFL roster. Once a player looses the interest and the fire, its just hard to reignite.
August 26th, 2017 at 8:17 pm
Tnew
As always a well thought out post! It makes sense. And I can accept that a player who was once pretty good can lose it…especially if his heart is not in it.
August 26th, 2017 at 9:11 pm
I totally get where you are coming from SPBF. You are and Always have been one of my favorite posters here. I should have never given my point of view as this is a FOOTBALL thread. That said I grew up in an upper middle class family yet I hung out in the hood starting in my teens. Much to the dismay of my parents I became the “black sheep” of the Family. I joined the Military young and spent a few years trying to find myself. When I got out I got into drugs and selling them. My most trusted “friends” on the street were mostly Black. I have been arrested over ten times, been tazed twice and hit with mace twice. Ironically two of these events were because they ran a background check on my and found out about my military background.
I am not on EITHER side. The problem goes much deeper.
August 26th, 2017 at 9:24 pm
With no pass rush tonight we are hanging VH3 out to dry and he is still doing good. Good things there
August 27th, 2017 at 2:26 am
Thank you! Much appreciated.
August 27th, 2017 at 7:37 am
Joes beef with Kap is getting old.