Vegas Line Is Wrong
July 18th, 2017
Bucs and the win total.
Earlier this month when Joe was in Las Vegas staying at the posh Aria Resort, Joe checked the win-total lines on various NFL and college teams at MGM Resorts properties. Hey, you know, when in Vegas…
Anyway, when Joe checked the Bucs, the over/under for wins was eight. Joe quickly slapped some cash on the counter and took the over. Here is proof.
Well, it seems Joe was not alone. Per CBS Sports.com, Vegas casinos are now offering the Bucs at 8.5. And Will Brinson thinks that is rubbish. The the 8.5 win-total is still disrespecting the Bucs.
It’s a disappointing season projected here for the Buccaneers, and one I wholeheartedly disagree with it. Tampa added DeSean Jackson and he is going to make Jameis Winston a viable MVP candidate in 2017. O.J. Howard is gravy with Cameron Brate in place. The offensive line can protect Winston enough and the defensive line should be scary with Noah Spence and Gerald McCoy prepared to wreck some havoc in Mike Smith’s second year as defensive coordinator.
And this, friends, is why Joe dropped cash on the over. Hell, the only thing the Bucs have to do is match last year’s win total and Joe wins. And there is no question the Bucs upgraded their roster. What’s Vegas missing here?
Full disclosure: Other bets Joe had on win totals, NFL and college, are: Jets under-4, Browns under-4.5, Jags over-6, Florida State over-9.5, Clemson over-9.5, Auburn over-8.5, Texas over-7.5.
Sadly, MGM Resorts only has win totals for “select” college teams. Joe noticed another casino had Illinois under-3 and Joe so much wanted to drop cash on Illinois and the under but Joe never made it to said casino.
July 18th, 2017 at 8:14 am
Take your money, split it three ways. Bet on the division conference and Super Bowl. They win the division you cover the other bets and will still win more than you bet total. They won NFC or Super Bowl you get a pretty penny
July 18th, 2017 at 8:14 am
The only thing that could stop you from winning this bet iiiiiiissssss…… INJURIES.
July 18th, 2017 at 8:24 am
The good news…..how long has it been since our over was 8.5?
July 18th, 2017 at 8:31 am
@joes
What happened to the morning headlines Joe’s?
July 18th, 2017 at 8:38 am
Don’t spend your $13.35 winnings all in one place…
July 18th, 2017 at 8:45 am
Less what Vegas is missing, and more of what Joe is missing: -150 odds on an over of 8 shows you that most betters were taking the over, and especially so if it has risen half a point since Joe made the bet. Look at our division, look at our schedule, and understand that a few key injuries could completely derail our team’s season. Everyone is looking to be a winner when all the records are 0-0!!
I know we are all optimists here at JBF, but so were the Panthers last season coming off their Superbowl appearance, gaining their stud WR back healthy, and yet they went 6-10 and now their GM is fired.
July 18th, 2017 at 8:57 am
The Bucs line should probably be at 9.5
When I was in Vegas I heard you don’t bet on USC, Notre Dame or the Cowboys out there because they have a lot of local fans that push the line.
July 18th, 2017 at 9:07 am
Vegas will put it below what they expect, hoping people vote against the Bucs.
I’m watching game one from last year vs the Falcons. I could have sworn Aguayo missed his first career kick…but he actually made it.
July 18th, 2017 at 9:07 am
What aargh said!
July 18th, 2017 at 9:18 am
A lot depends on how this teams starts, if you are a good team you can’t lose to bad teams (Bills, Jets, Cardinals, Bears, Vikings) all should be wins. Then you have to go at worse 3-3 in your division (hopefully better) That gives you 8 wins. Meaning the Bucs will need at least 2 wins against this group GB, Pats, Dolphins, Lions, and Giants all playoff teams from last year.
I think they can do it, but not if the defense plays awful for over half the season like last year.
July 18th, 2017 at 9:56 am
What happened to Morning Cup of Joe?
Joe just decided to put it on ice for a couple of weeks. Maybe more. –Joe
July 18th, 2017 at 10:31 am
I bet a Cowboys fan that Tampa would have a better record than “Amuricas team.” It probably wasn’t the best bet but I have been taking his money betting on the bucs the past two years now…hopefully it works out.
July 18th, 2017 at 10:41 am
Laying $20 to win $13.35 seems a strange bet, but a reasonably safe gamble I suppose. I’m more of the longer shot bet despite greater odds to collect. You can mail those winning bets in still. I’m guessing this is Lee because Steve has stated previously that he did not gamble, or maybe I have it backwards. I’m planning to visit Laughlin later this year to bet football, 3 or 4 team parlays combining college and pros. I can’t wait as it’s been 8 years since last there. Good luck!
July 18th, 2017 at 10:48 am
Pick:
Won’t!
Joe has a financial advisor that does very good job for Joe (hell, just the other day when Joe returned from Vegas, there was a bottle of Eagle Rare Bourbon sitting at Joe’s front door, a random gift from Joe’s financial advisor). Gambling, for Joe, is only for recreation and the six football bets Joe made this month is the most he’s ever wagered in a Vegas trip (previous high was four basketball bets in one trip — Joe was up $45 and decided that’s enough, better to walk away with some cash than no cash). Joe has never wagered more than $20 on a sports bet in Sin City.
Those big, shiny palaces you see up and down Las Vegas Ave.? They weren’t built on folks getting over on the house. If Joe is looking to make a windfall, he’s going to set up an appointment with his financial advisor and go over his portfolio long before he’s willing to drop major cash on a Vegas bet.
July 18th, 2017 at 11:04 am
“The offensive line can protect Winston enough” – Joe
Wish I could be as confident as you, Joe. If Sweezy is healthy- should help alot, if not – we’re looking at last year’s issues
https://www.bucsnation.com/2017/5/27/15705594/the-bucs-offense-will-stand-or-fall-with-the-offensive-line
July 18th, 2017 at 11:46 am
I feel like I’m probably in the vast minority here based on comments, and I like cute girls as much as any guy but I don’t miss Morning Cup of Joe. First, I frequent the gym so I see cute, fit, relatively scantily clad women on a daily basis. Second, I come to JBF exclusively for football news. Not girls. Not politics. Not crazy Jerry Springer shi*. But here’s some free advice for some. Try this nifty Google search: ‘cute+girls+in+bikinis’. My guess is that you’ll come up with troves of pics of cute girls in bikinis, far more than Joe can ever post. As for the politics and other craziness, this is not Joe DC.com or Joe TMZ.com. So let’s enjoy the best local Bucs coverage and stop lamenting the one girly pic per day. Just a thought.
July 18th, 2017 at 11:48 am
The line has moved based on public perception and not actual odds imo.
Public is starting to buy the Bucs so more people are willing to take that bet.
11-5 is my prediction
July 18th, 2017 at 12:03 pm
Agree with Joe that Vegas was built on losers. It’s not like anyone connected with that enterprise could ever be elected President of the United States.
July 18th, 2017 at 12:16 pm
What happened to Morning Cup of Joe?
Joe just decided to put it on ice for a couple of weeks. Maybe more. –Joe
________________________
Even the archives were deleted? That seems odd. I understand not posting new Cups of Joe, but deleting the old ones too?
July 18th, 2017 at 12:44 pm
I wrote several notes about this when the win totals first came out. Started at 8 flat or 8 ov20.
You have to remember that we’re in the toughest division (according to those same win totals), it’s a median, not a mean and 8 ov130 vs. 81/2 un130 are equivalent odds.
For those demanding Joe bet more, you have to remember that they keep your money for 7 months
July 18th, 2017 at 1:05 pm
For those demanding Joe bet more, always happy to spend other people’s cash. Anyone wanting to front Joe $2,000 or so (with no reasonable expectation of a payback if bet loses), let Joe know. Will provide mailing address.
July 18th, 2017 at 1:49 pm
Vegas doesn’t matter. When the Bucs starting winning, the oddsmakers will follow. Simple as that.
July 18th, 2017 at 2:50 pm
Sorry ARGH_M8E you forgot the other reason that could lose Joe this bet, the guy that cost us playoffs last season….Jameis Winston.
July 18th, 2017 at 3:09 pm
We are in a definite upswing but, damn we have a tough division!
Reality, Its going to take time for our offense to gel. I think OJ and Godwin is going to make a impact at the end of the season…hope we have enough wins going into the end of the season because i have no doubt we will be playing our best overall team football at the end of the year
“The success of the 2017 Bucs season will depend on Koestters playcalling and VH3”
Kobe Faker
July 18th, 2017 at 5:40 pm
No. If the bets go bad got to be the number 1 excuse. The schedule was to tough. Then #2 will be Dirks play calling and #3 Jameis was only 23 with only 2 years of college ball.
July 18th, 2017 at 6:30 pm
Speaking of odds and the chances of beating Vegas the guy who really get me are the dudes getting over selling tips or touts.
I always have the same thought for all of these so called professional touts who sell their picks.
If they were truly good they wouldn’t be working that hard and selling their picks which btw would make odds on their own bets get a smaller return if customers follow advice.
Cmon man…if you can pick Vegas winners at a strong enough pace to WIN consistently you’d be a pro…you’d live in some dream spot of your choice..and live life large just cashing your own winners. Why go through all the rigamorole of creating a tip sheet….oh…that’s it…just like Joe they’re willing to bet large with other people’s dough.
July 18th, 2017 at 8:01 pm
This site sucks without the morning cup of joe and I’ll be back when it’s back peace out go Bucs!
July 18th, 2017 at 8:03 pm
11-5 is a bit much to me maybe 9-7 or 10-6 but it would be nice!
July 18th, 2017 at 8:12 pm
Hmmm… I hope I didn’t have anything to do with the disappearance of Morning Cup of Joe AND the archives. I know I had a knack of pissing people off at times. I miss Clodhopper takes.
July 19th, 2017 at 12:58 am
You didn’t. No one did.
July 19th, 2017 at 3:23 am
Oh boy Joe just spent all his beer money