Jameis’ Numbers Compare To Greats
July 17th, 2017
Numbers similar to elites.
Perspective for the open-minded is really a cool thing.
Joe has noticed of late more than a couple of national NFL types — almost to a man rooted in fantasy football — railing that America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston, is an NFL quarterback con.
They holler and stomp their feet about his interceptions and believe Jameis is little more than a glorified Wrongo Starr with a personality, thus, is doomed to the NFL scrap heap with the likes of the Josh Freemans and Rick Mirers of the world.
Just for some perspective, and to demonstrate what a shallow yet fun life Joe has, on a Saturday night, Joe compared Jameis’ stats to some stud NFL quarterbacks of the present and past. This continued into Sunday night as well (no, Joe has no desire to watch this TV show social media goes gaga over, something about “Thrones” or some such thing.)
Just for the helluva it, Joe decided to compare Jameis’ first two seasons to both Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck. Both Colts quarterbacks were selected first overall in their respective drafts. One of the two will have his bust in Canton and the other seems to have a fair shot, though there is still a long way to go for him.
At worst, it’s fair to say both Manning and Luck turned out OK after shaky starts to their NFL days.
All three quarterbacks had issues with picks in their first two years. Jameis had 15 picks his rookie season. Not truly awful but not great, either. He had 33 after two seasons.
Manning led the NFL with 28 interceptions his rookie season — 28! He had 43 interceptions through two seasons.
Luck threw 18 interceptions his rookie season, but calmed down considerably in his second season with just nine, the only season in his career Luck has had single-digit picks. Through two seasons, Luck had 27 picks.
As for touchdowns, Jameis has 50 touchdowns through two seasons — 50! Manning had 52. Luck threw for 46 scores.
The interesting thing here? Luck was three days shy of his 23rd birthday when his rookie season kicked off. Manning was 22. Jameis is 23 and already has two seasons under his belt.
Then last night, Chase Stuart, who runs the interesting FootballPerspective.com, calculated the total number of touchdown passes a quarterback has thrown before turning 23 (Jameis turned 23 in January 2017, just after the Bucs beat the Stinking Panthers to end the season with a winning record).
No quarterback in NFL history under 23 has thrown for more touchdowns than Jameis. None! In fact, Jameis leads by a wide margin for quarterbacks who were 22 or younger. Jameis’ 50 touchdowns is 10 more than No. 2 on the list, a tie between Drew Bledsoe and Fran Tarkenton.
So for the folks going completely mental over Jameis’ picks, chill man!
Not saying Jameis will turn into Manning or Luck or Bledsoe or Tarkenton, but his early numbers suggest while he may not be sitting in the same pew as those guys, he’s certainly sitting in the same church.
Jameis is going to be just fine, folks. Joe is confident. Bucs fans should be, too.
July 17th, 2017 at 8:08 am
I have no problem with Jameis and will enjoy watching him for years to come.
July 17th, 2017 at 8:31 am
I have said this since he was drafted so I will say it again. Winston will probably be a lot like Brett Favre and that’s not a bad thing. The kid is a winning, gun slinging, big risk big reward, put the team on his back type of guy. For me I don’t care if he leads the league in interceptions so long as he gets the win.
July 17th, 2017 at 8:32 am
Similar. Kind of like a GMC and a Chevy Truck. But they still are not a FORD! I don’t see where anyone said he was a BUST. He just needs to settle down and has things to improve on. So what?
July 17th, 2017 at 8:37 am
USFBUC:
Nice comparison. Gunslingers.
July 17th, 2017 at 8:38 am
Great perspective article Joe. Many seem to overlook the fact that Jamie’s on played 2 yrs of college ball. Manning played 4 yrs and Luck 3 yrs.
July 17th, 2017 at 8:48 am
That excuse is old. Who’s decision was it? Like getting a AA then leaving college and working towards a job requiring a Bachelors. Should have stayed and got the other first. Only thing you had was Hope you were good enough now to make the money you could later.
July 17th, 2017 at 9:00 am
DBS, a little annoyed your perspective is exposed as foolish? Grow up and let the kid grow. You obviously haven’t, but rest assured Jameis will. Now go admire your Mariota poster, and stop trying to make sense of your agenda.
July 17th, 2017 at 9:04 am
Jamies is something the Bucs organization has never seen before.
I not only think he will make the jump from good to elite this year but I am confident he will arguably be the best QB in the NFL within the next three years.
July 17th, 2017 at 9:07 am
Don’t give 2 sh!ts about Mariota little girl. Like I said. He has things to work on. And 2 yeas of college ball is not our fault. People try to use it as an excuse.
July 17th, 2017 at 9:08 am
Why is Joe calling Andrew Luck a great? He’s has been nothing more than an avg NFL starter his entire career
July 17th, 2017 at 9:12 am
I think we are all about on the brink of witnessing something really special with Winston. 3#rd year QB, hardest worker on the team, unquestioned leader on and off the field. With his age, skill-sets, and now some true weapons at his disposal coupled with how much Koetter will be able to do with the upgrades on offense and opening the playbook.
I was even concerned about the deep ball overthrows and think with the speed of DeSean Jackson, that a typical overthrown deep pass may just be on the money with Jackson. I see a lot of deep TD passes this season. It is early but Winston has the tools to be one of the all time greats as does ME13. Those 2 may go down in history…the good type.
July 17th, 2017 at 9:13 am
Good question. Joe never did. But Luck is a helluva quarterback and one of Joe’s favorites.
Besides, don’t think there is one NFL GM who thinks Luck is “average.”
July 17th, 2017 at 9:26 am
DBS:
It is not an excuse but if you don’t think skipping two years of high level college football isn’t a factor, you are out of your mind.
July 17th, 2017 at 9:29 am
pls stop with hype on Mr.Winston until he moves up into top 10..He is rated as middle of the nfl qb’s which should change this year with the additions of his new team mates. After all M.M. is rated higher the Winston with more upside by most nfl people so let Winston show them their wrong first.
July 17th, 2017 at 9:39 am
I can’t even count the amount of times I compared him to Favre. His gun-slinging risk taking ways, his escape ability his creativity. Both guys would throw with their left hand if their right hand wasn’t available if it meant completing a pass. Both never give up on plays. Both guys are winners. He reminded me of favre in college he reminds me of him now. Have said this for years. Difference is the book is written on favre and his interceptions and Winston is going to cut down. Also jameis so clearly had terrible weapons he had to force the ball to Evans. This year will be telling as he now has a stable of weapons to throw to
July 17th, 2017 at 9:41 am
Great piece Joe.
Two things seem to always be missing in sports and political talk. Nuance and perspective!!!! Everything is presented too black and white.
So we all end up knowing that #3 is a pick machine…lol or that all liberals are snowflakes or that all conservatives are granny killers and baby starvers. (snark font off)
In my 69 years I’ve found that the “truth” is rarely black and white.
July 17th, 2017 at 9:44 am
Ben- Mariota has a better stable of backs and a way better o line. He completed like 7 passes in a win* against Denver
* the defense and running game won that game.
Mariotas knees will be his downfall. He’s more accurate yes and that is it. He will never win a superbowl in my opinion. And I liked Mariota to the bucs before jameis declared which I didn’t see jameis doing.
And now with that said —if I see one more mention of fairyota I’m gonna lose my mind. I get it “they’ll always be linked” but a week away from training camp it needs to stop being mentioned in every single jameis article comment section
July 17th, 2017 at 9:49 am
You can manipulate stats anyway you like. But to look at the other side of things here are a few alarming stats
Jameis has the same amount of INT’s as Ryan Leaf did after his first two years… Leaf was also a Rookie at age 22
David Carr, had less INT’s in his first 2 seasons on an expansion team than Jameis does in his first two years…
Players that are perceived to be worse than Jameis by Bucs fans who have lower turnover totals and more playoff appearances in their first two years as starters-Andy Dalton, Kirk Cousins…
To me Jameis seems to be more Tony Romo and Jay Cutler both had 32 INT’s through their first 2 seasons as starters than anything else.
July 17th, 2017 at 9:56 am
Yes, 2 years of college makes a huge difference. While we may suffer for his inexperience we also have the privilege of being able to retain a young man from his early days and hopefully into his twilight years as an NFL QB. Consider this; Brandon Weeden was drafted in the first round at the age of 27; not that he’s had any kind of production but his ability ‘to’ produce for his franchise was limited. Yeah, Jameis hasn’t been great at times, but he has won games (more then Glennon did) and he’s still so young. Many more years of Famous Jameis to come, with winning (hopefully)
July 17th, 2017 at 10:09 am
@Broy34-But in their rookie years Winston had the superior running game and offensive line. If you give credit to the Titans D and running game against a common opponent that blew out the Bucs that’s not really making the Jameis or the Bucs look good.
It’s almost the same argument with the 5 game win streak that was the defense leading this team not the offense and Jameis.
July 17th, 2017 at 10:10 am
Kobe is Jameis #1 nuthugger, but…
He needs to calm his emotions and his mental emotional part of his game has to be better
comparing to the greats. When did a QB ever headbut a defensive player for professed holding another player down? Headbutting instead of preparing for the next play? His eyes was bulging out and spitting fire and you want him to throw a touch pass the next play
Thats why Kobe is adament that he needs a offensive coord exactly with him to be accountable and work through each play with Jameis. During his rookie year, Koetter as OC was on Jameis …going through the plays,teaching, thinking thru,and having him accountable. Jameis is missing a mentor/OC
1 thing that we missed from Lovie was his constant hands on approach with Jameis . countless hours with 1 on 1 meetings
“I dedicate this post to BighogHaynes”
Kobe Faker
July 17th, 2017 at 10:32 am
Interception Percentage Rookie Seasons
Dan Marino 2.0 (3.0 second year)
Jameis Winston 2.8 (3.2 second year)
Andrew Luck 2.9
Ben Roethlisberger 3.9 (3.4 second year when he won first Super Bowl)
Joe Namath 4.4
Peyton Manning 4.9 (2.8 second year)
Fran Tarkenton 6.1.
Oh, yeah, in Brett Favre’s second year (first in Green Bay) people howled about his picks. He had a 2.8 interception rate that season.
And Jameis has 10 more touchdowns than anyone in NFL history at 22 years-old.
So, yeah, Jameis is the next Ryan Leaf. smh
July 17th, 2017 at 10:57 am
Joe, never said he’s the next Ryan Leaf, just comparing INT numbers. Which is accurate as the numbers don’t lie.
Farve also went from 24 INT’s (his second season in GB) to 14 to 13 to 13, showing that Farve got better about protecting the ball, something Koetter, Ira, Monken, and the majority of fans have all pointed out that Jameis needs to do. I understand Jameis will never be Rodgers or Brady like and complete a season with 10-12 INT’s but if he can cut them down to the 12-14 range and not give away possesions and free points this team will be in position for the post season every year.
Opponents scoring 48 points off his turnovers (not including extra points) backs that up pretty well. We all as Bucs fans like Jameis and want him to succeed but the turnovers have got to go down.
July 17th, 2017 at 11:16 am
Stud
Delete your account.
July 17th, 2017 at 11:41 am
@DB55-
Usually when someone has no argument they result to personal attacks, sorry you can’t handle the truth or comparisons that don’t fit your pre conceived bias.
July 17th, 2017 at 11:48 am
That’s not an attack. I’m just looking out for you sis. Archives can be a mf.
July 17th, 2017 at 11:56 am
“To me Jameis seems to be more Tony Romo and Jay Cutler both had 32 INT’s through their first 2 seasons as starters than anything else.”
You’re looking at Romo & Cutler in their 2nd and 3rd years and not their rookie year + 2nd year… kind of a huge difference for all QBs historically when looking at 3rd year vs rookie year… come back to this after 2017 season and Winston’s 3rd year stats..
Even so – Winston has 10 total more TDs through his first 2 years than Cutler had in his 2nd and 3rd years.
Not to mention that Cutler is probably the single worst comparison for Winston when it comes to leadership / intangibles / winning.
Romo year 3 doesn’t bother me as a comparison. 4200 yards 36 TD 19 Int. It was one of Romo’s best years tho and not his typical average year. Romo’s average career TD per year is like 26 which Winston is already basically at through 2 years.
July 17th, 2017 at 11:59 am
@DB55- I’m ok with what I say, it’s not bashing or “hatin” it’s just stat comparison . I’m a HUGE Jameis fan, even took my son to meet him at the mall the other night, but I’m not a deaf, blind and dumb homer who ignores his weaknesses. I’d love for jameis to blow up this season and cut down on the turnovers and both Joes (or more) and all the great posters here laugh at this post for years to come. As I’m a fan and want the team and Jameis to succeed.
July 17th, 2017 at 12:00 pm
Jameis had a 9 game stretch last year where he only threw 4 interceptions. He had a similar stretch his rookie year.
His problem isn’t ball security in every game. His problem is a couple melt down games a year that have made it look like ball security is an every game problem.
Cut out those bad games and bad starts by offsetting it with some more easy completions and YAC help; and sprinkle in an improved line / run game and things should go pretty well.
July 17th, 2017 at 12:09 pm
@ Stud
I will never laugh at you for pointing out negative Winston stats. I’ll just be here to add additional context and counter points with positive stats 🙂
I’m a homer but I try to be pretty objective. I think objectively Winston has been one of the better QBs in history his first 2 seasons via numerous stats. I’m not worried about him improving. If he doesn’t or regresses this year then yeah maybe i’ll be concerned.
I could see solid improvement from year 1 to year 2 even though he technically threw more picks on the year. Most of the best games of his career were last year even if you can’t see that in a spreadsheet of stats. The Kansas City game was probably one of the best game’s he’s ever played and he only threw 1 TD that day.
July 17th, 2017 at 12:16 pm
Lord C-
Good points, but you can’t hold it against a player when they do or don’t start. The age thing and a player being young or old isn’t impressive to me when it comes to Winston. So it’s a pretty even baseline to look at players first few years of starting experience.
In 2016
Jameis was turnover free when including fumbles in only 3 of 16 games, he was INT free in 5 of the 16 games. And threw for under 250 yards 8 times, which given his number of attempts and no running game isn’t very good. Turnovers are a weekly problem for him, yes you see the games with multiple turnovers that inflate the number when he’s trying to make a play to win a game or put points on the board but nonetheless they are still turnovers that are preventing the Bucs from scoring and allowing the opponent a chance to flip the field and score.
July 17th, 2017 at 12:26 pm
“Lord C-
Good points, but you can’t hold it against a player when they do or don’t start. The age thing and a player being young or old isn’t impressive to me when it comes to Winston. So it’s a pretty even baseline to look at players first few years of starting experience.”
It’s not about holding anything against anyone it’s about making a legit fair comparison.
It’s not fair to compare Winston’s first 2 years starting to QBs performances in their 2nd and 3rd years in the league and ignore the entire year of additional experience they had regardless of how much they played that rookie year
July 17th, 2017 at 12:43 pm
“Jameis was turnover free when including fumbles in only 3 of 16 games, he was INT free in 5 of the 16 games. And threw for under 250 yards 8 times, which given his number of attempts and no running game isn’t very good. Turnovers are a weekly problem for him”
Turnovers are a weekly problem for every QB if 1 turnover per game = a problem.
The average QB in 2016 threw 12 interceptions and lost 3 fumbles. That’s 15 turnovers or 1 per game basically. It doesn’t really negate the picture I painted in that Winston has been completely normal at worst in terms of turnovers outside of 4 meltdown games in 32. But those meltdowns are on him regardless and can’t happen.
And yeah he threw for under 250 yards in 8 games (2 were 243 and 247). I don’t really care honestly. We went 4-4 in that stretch and some of those games were games in which we threw the ball 26/28/30 times which isn’t tons of passing volume in the NFL.
In terms of yards per attempt – did you think Andrew Luck was a good QB or looked like a good QB his first 2 years? Winston has the same yards basically though 2 years (8132 to 8196) on 95 fewer passes while having the worst YAC help in the league last year. At his average YPA 95 passes would equate to another 700 yards passing.
July 17th, 2017 at 12:58 pm
Guys do not fall for stud’s antics. He is the old poster i named tennessee tony. You know the one who says he loves winston but goes out of his way to bash winston on every thread. Stud, you are not fooling any one or should i say tennessee tony.
July 17th, 2017 at 1:28 pm
LordC-
If you negate Jameis’s multiple turnover games he’s right on par with the rest of the league but for 2016 he was at 1.5 turnovers per game. Opponents scored 48 points off his turnovers. Some teams can recover from the QB putting the team in a bad spot but not with the way the Bucs defense played last year.
I can’t really speak on Luck as I’ve only seen a handful of his games, but he’s looked very good those first 2 to 3 years, I think what propped him up in the nations eyes though was bringing his team to the playoffs every year in his first 3 seasons. That’s where team success can skew the perception of a QB. Not saying Jameis or Luck aren’t good as they both are, but we can’t gloss over either of their tunrovers. Especially when Koetter and even Luck’s said how their qb’s need to cut down on the turnovers.
July 17th, 2017 at 1:31 pm
Looking at Luck’s stats I think all Buc fans can agree we hope Jameis emulates Luck’s 3rd year production.
July 17th, 2017 at 2:16 pm
“Stud Says:
July 17th, 2017 at 1:31 pm
Looking at Luck’s stats I think all Buc fans can agree we hope Jameis emulates Luck’s 3rd year production.”
For sure my liege.
July 17th, 2017 at 2:36 pm
I know QB’s are only measured by TD throws and INTs, but add another 7 running touchdowns to that and where does he rank.
July 17th, 2017 at 3:07 pm
I like to take the stats out of it. You can spin stats too many ways, as onw guy did about Ryan Leaf.
To me its simple. Winstons 2016 performance will not be enough toto meet 17′ expectations.
He didnt play good enough to get us to the playoffs(next step). Three games stick out to me……rams, broncos,cardinals. Winston wa
July 17th, 2017 at 4:56 pm
GUYS on here whining about a 23 year old, FOUR YEAR STARTER, not being good enough is why some teams don’t deserve nice things. SMDH!!!!
Btw, people don’t mention that Manning had the Ultimate Checkdown Machine aka Marshal Faulk as his RB early on.
July 17th, 2017 at 6:15 pm
The same rams game where the bucs scored 32 pts and roberto missed a field goal and extra point and the defense gave up 37 to kase kennum and jared goff? Sure, lets blame jameis because he did not put up 40 pts. Some of you guys are off your rockers.
July 17th, 2017 at 6:28 pm
Btw, people don’t mention that Manning had the Ultimate Checkdown Machine aka Marshal Faulk as his RB early on
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Let’s not forget Edgrin James. Aren’t they both in the hall? Prob not James too thuggish I mean he wears braids and that’s thuggish enough. Ijs