Haters Part II
June 9th, 2017
Blame them.
Here we go again.
There seems to be something much more dangerous in this country than getting knifed or trucked while randomly walking down the sidewalk. Or worse: being fed warm beer. And that is calculators.
Giving calculators to idle hands, the GIGO they pump out can be quite dangerous. Take the latest by statgeeky Hank Gargiulo of BSPN. He fired up his Excel spread sheet and began tapping on his keyboard, and they tell him the Bucs should finish in the basement of the NFC South with one possible speedbump on the road to the cellar.
It’s located at the new Shoney’s Dixie Chicks’ crib in Atlanta.
Key game: at Falcons (Week 12) | Playoff leverage: 21.3 percent
Going on the road to take down FPI’s favorite to win the division would more likely bolster a wild-card run than a division title push. FPI projects Tampa as the least likely of four candidates to win the NFC South, but the Bucs’ playoff probability jumps to 41.4 percent with a victory here.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Joe gets it. If the Bucs are the “least likely” team to win the division, then they are the favorite to be in the basement, no?
Two things may be at play here; the numberscrunchers, Joe guesses, really, really loathe the offensive line of the Bucs and/or they think the Saints defense will be markedly better.
June 9th, 2017 at 11:06 am
Joe: I was crunching some numbers and analyzing some data. The probability of me drinking an ice-cold DogFish IPA this afternoon are 100%!
June 9th, 2017 at 11:18 am
Love your odds and your thought process. 🙂
Not sure about the IPA thing. (When it comes to beer-making, go to the experts. Germany > India all day every day. Think about it, where would you go for the best pasta, Pakistan or Italy?)
June 9th, 2017 at 11:22 am
The number crunchers are on a fools errand because we don’t even have actual teams for 2017!!! We certainly have some ideas with some teams more set than others. But on average 20% of each team will be different this year.
How do you handicap teams that do not exist with stats that have yet to be recorded.
So for example…how did they rate our OL…did they plug in Sweezy stats from his best season…worst season…are they even aware of Sweezy or did they just grade last year’s line and assume it will be the same line this year.
June 9th, 2017 at 11:24 am
7-5 vs our division the last 2 years. Most improved team in the division. Does anyone think Brees (38), Matt Ryan (32), or Cam Newton (28) are likely to improve as much as a 23 year old Winston entering his 3rd year?
Does their spreadsheet take any of that into account?
June 9th, 2017 at 11:28 am
This is Jethro Bodine style cipherin’.
Stupid and not even worthy of an article nor any of our attention.
June 9th, 2017 at 11:32 am
Most statistical data is predicated on who is holding the pencil.
June 9th, 2017 at 11:33 am
@Joe- It’s more about the ABV content than anything else, but I get your point. Wasn’t it the British though who invented the IPA? I may be wrong, but I thought the process was designed for the long trips over to India or from India by the Brits.
June 9th, 2017 at 11:41 am
Not really worried much about Brees the crickity one, Ryan the last loss one, or Newton the figgy one.
June 9th, 2017 at 11:45 am
I think the Falcons will sweep us and we split with New Orleans and Carolina. I think we lose to Miami, NY Giants, NE, Arizona and Green Bay. 7-9 is my prediction, that’s really not that bad. Things will change for us, I just don’t see it happen this season. All of these teams other than Miami has older experienced QBs. And I think they will pick our defense apart. I’m going with the stat geeks at ESPN, Las Vegas and Football Outsiders.
June 9th, 2017 at 11:47 am
As someone who works in data, these predictions drive me up the f*cking wall. It’s a bunch of stats and engineering majors trying to make a buck off of developing a home-cooked algorithm as to how to win football game and running new numbers through it. It’s arrogant, baseless, and without any consequence. By giving a team a 40% chance to win the divsion, the team could tank or win the division and these idiots will sit back and say, told ya so.
June 9th, 2017 at 11:49 am
Last two times we won the Division we were picked to be last.
No worries.
June 9th, 2017 at 11:50 am
Joe’s going to steal that!!! 🙂
June 9th, 2017 at 11:53 am
Commenters are bringing their A-game this morning!
June 9th, 2017 at 11:53 am
Joe.. being in Germany right now, I would love a west coast IPA.. Been craving one for months..I know I would drop at least 20 euro for a Sculpin right now.
By the way.. just read an article about Donovan Smith dropping some weight and taking 5% off body fat and spending the off season at EXOS!! Does any of the numbers take the fact in to account that our “biggest weakness”, not my assessment BTW, is coming into his third season, didn’t commit any holding or illegal hands penalties in the last 6 weeks of the season and committed to being in the best shape of his life. I’ve been cautiously optimistic about this being a breakout year for Smith, I’m counting chips and ready to push all in. I love the work ethic seeping out of the walls at One Buc Place.
June 9th, 2017 at 11:54 am
“Joe Says:
June 9th, 2017 at 11:18 am
🙂
Not sure about the IPA thing. (When it comes to beer-making, go to the experts. Germany > India all day every day”
Joe, Joe, Joe. LOL. India Pale Ale originated from Britain. The British troops making the long journey to Colonial India noticed their normal beer would spoil on the ship but, when they made the beer with lots and lots and lots of hops, the beer lasted for the long voyage.
Bless your heart. 🙂
June 9th, 2017 at 11:54 am
Screw German beer. English ale is where its at if you want to look to history. Even in a commercial standard grocery store fare type scenario – I’ll take Newcastle over Becks all day any day.
The fairly recent proliferation of American small breweries producing high quality ale is what has saved “beer” in this country from falling off the cliff of drinkability as when the swill/pisswater that comes out of St Louis and Milwaukee ruled the American “beer” landscape and dominated tap space at too many establishments…
Come to Dunedin Joe – I’ll buy you a real beer freshly made from a real brewery…
June 9th, 2017 at 11:54 am
Pretty sure you are correct. But when trying to sell Joe beer, dropping the word “India” is anything but a selling point with beer. Totally turnoff for Joe.
June 9th, 2017 at 11:54 am
For most of them it is not hard to guess. A team that can’t put points on the board. Constantly brings in injury prone players that can’t make it through the season. A defense that can’t get to the QB and most of the time and let’s them stay on the field. Let’s them put points on the board. For the last 10 or so years this has been the Bucs. Without some fluke injures like Bennett and luck this team would more than likely been 7-9 or worse last year. So most just need to take an uneducated guess and could be correct. Even with no games being played yet. But it’s all entertainment anyway and means nothing until the games are are played.
June 9th, 2017 at 11:55 am
BLASPHEMY!
June 9th, 2017 at 11:57 am
If said brewery is named “Anheuser-Busch,” Joe is all in.
#MacroBeer
June 9th, 2017 at 11:59 am
tnew:
Not sure what or how the nerds programmed their software with.
You are making Joe jealous. Have a fine German lager on Joe!
June 9th, 2017 at 11:59 am
Based on how fast this post went to Beer, its shaping up to be a great Friday.
June 9th, 2017 at 11:59 am
“If said brewery is named “Anheuser-Busch,” Joe is all in.”
Sigh – SMH – there’s no hope for your tastebuds then…
June 9th, 2017 at 12:00 pm
Oddly enough I’m a financial analyst and work in spreadsheets all day lol. That’s why I drop stats here from time to time typically to shut down a negative poster with a negative opinion that isn’t founded in reality.
That said – it’s ridiculous to try and think of football in a spreadsheet in terms of predicting wins / losses. Too many non mathematical unpredictable variables.
A spreadsheet can’t account for the loss of Shanahan for the Falcons; or the mental effect of that choke in the SB. It doesn’t account for a potential in Brees to start regressing at 38+ years old. etc etc
June 9th, 2017 at 12:01 pm
So Joe’s take on beer is screw IPAs, gimme a dunkel or bud. You and I are polar opposites, sir(s)!
June 9th, 2017 at 12:02 pm
Lord Cornelius his the nail on the head. “Too many non mathematical unpredictable variables”. Football is a game of inches, not algorithms.
June 9th, 2017 at 12:04 pm
@Pickgrin- “Newcastle over Becks” ALL day e’ry day!
@Joe- Don’t let semantics stand in your way of a good beer.
June 9th, 2017 at 12:05 pm
“Based on how fast this post went to Beer, its shaping up to be a great Friday”
Definitely, amen!
June 9th, 2017 at 12:06 pm
Guys.. Guys.. think of your taste in beer like your taste in women. Take the time to acquire a diverse palate. If you don’t discriminate, you can enjoy them all.
June 9th, 2017 at 12:06 pm
Amen!
June 9th, 2017 at 12:14 pm
tnew Says:
June 9th, 2017 at 12:06 pm
Guys.. Guys.. think of your taste in beer like your taste in women. Take the time to acquire a diverse palate. If you don’t discriminate, you can enjoy them all.
———————————————
Yea – I guess someone has to end up with with the horny chick pushing twofitty at 2:15am. Guess that would be you tnew… She is the equivalent of Joe’s beloved Anheuser-Busch products.
June 9th, 2017 at 12:16 pm
Also there a plenty of local brewers who make great versions of German beers like pilsners.
June 9th, 2017 at 12:17 pm
Joe has sampled craft beers for years and has found one brewery and four beers from four separate breweries he enjoys (two of these beers cannot be found in the Tampa Bay area).
The two beers in question are pale ales (Joe’s a German lager kinda guy).
Have zero interest in paying top dollar for beers Joe wouldn’t ever buy a second time for $1. Too often have “sampled” craft beers by buying a $10 six pack only to have four or five of those beers sit in the very back of Joe’s fridge for eight months before he tosses them in the garbage.
Jason Light Ale from Big Top Brewing in Sarasota Joe really likes.
Bleach Blonde Ale from Three Daughters in St. Petersburg is not bad.
St. Arnold Brewery in Houston has good stuff.
Osiris at Sun King Brewing in Indianapolis is good stuff.
Boulevard Pale Ale (no, cannot be found locally, Joe has tried and if you know of a place this can be found, Joe has a reward for you) is good stuff.
Other than that, Joe’s sticking with Bud Light. #MacroBeer
June 9th, 2017 at 12:20 pm
IPA – who cares how long out lasts on a long voyage without refrigeration. Let’s judge beer by how it tastes. Give me a Guiness from the tap please, in Great Britain that is.
June 9th, 2017 at 12:21 pm
Generally, Joe really, really, really despises pilsners. Would stay sober if a pilsner is the lone choice. For example, Miller Lite and Stag are pilsners (trust Joe, if you every tasted Stag, you’d sprint to the nearest AA office).
***However*** perhaps the best craft beer Joe ever had (by accident) is Summer Pils from St. Arnold Brewery in Houston.
June 9th, 2017 at 12:24 pm
Bingo. We have a thing called refrigeration in the 21st century. So we are basing good beer on how folks in the 18th century kept beers from spoiling on the high seas?
June 9th, 2017 at 12:36 pm
I think the odds have it at 99% that Hank Gargiulo of BSPN has A) Never held a football in his life B) never had a date C) been given a large volume of wedgies and swirlys during his time in High School D) been a season ticket holder for his local Ren Faire. I have used the same amount of data to come up with my conclusions as Hank has for his article.
June 9th, 2017 at 12:48 pm
HAHAHAHA! Yeah, Stag was a cheap(I guess) stand by beer Dad kept in the basement when I was a kid. He was a Bush man at that time, Budweiser was his favorite even on a sponge at the end. Thanks for these great memories, Miss Ya Dad! We drank way to many of those Stags. LOL! Wow!
June 9th, 2017 at 12:50 pm
I have been bitten by the moderation Bug… Might have been the mentioning of the Male Deer?
June 9th, 2017 at 1:03 pm
We did it to Philly in 2003 and we will do it again this season. The Bucs will beat the Falcons in their new cage!!!!!!!
June 9th, 2017 at 1:23 pm
I’d love to see a statistic that shows how often these guys are right. Where’s the brainiacs behind a computer screen that keep the other statisticians honest?
June 9th, 2017 at 2:01 pm
I don’t drink beer. I am a hard liquor type of guy.
Give me Hennessey, Crown, or Jack when I’m on brown. Then give me Patron or Grey Goose when I’m on white and I’m good to go. Y’all can have that beer.
June 9th, 2017 at 2:04 pm
Gotta love a 30 something year old Idiot , still living in Mom’s basement, wearing his brand new romper, with way too much time on his hands .
June 9th, 2017 at 2:10 pm
Low expectations are better. Hype and sunshine-up-their-skirt is exactly what they don’t need, which is why I wish Hard Knocks never came calling.
June 9th, 2017 at 2:12 pm
Bud Light – the beer for people who don’t like beer.
June 9th, 2017 at 2:25 pm
Don’t understand the m0d3ration and deletion…
June 9th, 2017 at 2:26 pm
IPA all day long. There’s no such thing as too much hops.
June 9th, 2017 at 2:43 pm
Yes!!!
June 9th, 2017 at 2:55 pm
Beer??? We talking about Beer??? Not football… Not football, BEER???
Signed Allan Iverson
June 9th, 2017 at 2:59 pm
However I think this article has finally figured out the issue with the spread sheeters.
But its 50 50 what the problem is…
1) They either drink to much beer before they start playing with themselves. Which I normally do, so this option is possible.
OR…. The one I am voting for….
2) They don’t drink beer OR WATCH THE FRIGGEN GAMES and thus play with themselves. Hoping to rule the world with a spreadsheet.
June 9th, 2017 at 3:09 pm
Bucs365
Mich Ultra…the beer for people who don’t like beer. My wife and I drink it…we prefer it and we candidly admit we do not know squat about beer and that we like to drink “water beer”. We like very light smooth flavors not rich beers that the connoisseur prefer.
June 9th, 2017 at 3:20 pm
I’m with marinebucfan, exactly what he said although I’ll sub the Jack for bacardi. If I have to drink beer give me a Stella or a mickey’s.
June 9th, 2017 at 3:21 pm
@LakelandBucs … “I think the Falcons will sweep us and we split with New Orleans and Carolina. I think we lose to Miami, NY Giants, NE, Arizona and Green Bay. 7-9 is my prediction, that’s really not that bad.”
Interesting perspective Lakeland, but turn that around a little bit. Suppose instead that we split with the Falcons (just like we did this year), plus split with the Saints & Panthers (like you assumed). And suppose also that we beat just 1 of those 5 teams that you assumed we’d lose to (we do play both the Giants & Patriots here back to back, so 1 of those games could be very winnable). That’d give us a 9-7 record and guess what … this year that could be enough to win (or at least tie for) the NFC South. Heck, a 10-5 record isn’t out of the realm of possibility. Bottom line to me is that every team in the NFC South is very good; and every team in the NFC South is also very vulnerable, for different reasons.
This’ll be an exciting season. Think positive.
June 9th, 2017 at 3:31 pm
@DB55- Did you just reference Mickey’s Big Mouth?!!! Whoa dude! That beer brings back SOME (not all!) memories both good and bad!!!
I’m a Beam guy when not drinking beer.
June 9th, 2017 at 4:44 pm
Best Post I’ve read in Months.
Where’s a good pint of Black N’ Tan when U need one.
June 9th, 2017 at 5:22 pm
Sure did! 🙂
June 9th, 2017 at 6:08 pm
Just a computer model based on past performance, isn’t anything to get you panties in a bunch about.
June 9th, 2017 at 9:15 pm
Bud lite is to beer as sewer water is to Perrier.
June 10th, 2017 at 12:15 am
OK, drinking Cigar City Jai Alai pale ale. Not bad at all.
Wouldn’t mind drinking this again.
Still a proud Bud Light man!
June 10th, 2017 at 2:00 am
Joe, have you not had any Belgium beer before? German and Belgium are some of the finest beers around.
June 10th, 2017 at 2:34 am
Is Heineken Belgium? 🙂
June 10th, 2017 at 2:10 pm
“FPI projects Tampa as the least likely of four candidates to win the NFC South”
ROFL! The Bucs have been bottom feeders so long that no one expects what is coming. Man, this year is going to be sweet.
There is only one way the Bucs don’t win the division…and that’s if Winston goes down.
June 10th, 2017 at 2:12 pm
I’m not ready to make a final prediction, but 9-7 would be acceptable…with at least 10-6 expected. At least.
June 10th, 2017 at 9:04 pm
IF the number crunchers were right an inkling more than half the time, there would be a lot more rich folks out there than there are. Yes, I’m biased for the Bucs, I admit it. But you can’t tell me the Falcons aren’t still stinging over their laughable SB loss. Some things you don’t recover from. And this isn’t the first time the Falcons have blown it late. And they can’t blame Mike Smith any more. I worry about the Panthers more than anyone. Whoever if first, I expect NO and ATL to be the lowest.