Geeks: Bucs Back In Basement
June 4th, 2017
Nerds not impressed.
The stat geeks have spoken.
Taking time away from a session of Dungeons and Dragons, the numberscrunchers over at BSPN ran their spreadsheets until their Excel software jammed and they have determined who will win what in the NFL this fall.
As for Tampa Bay? The spreadsheeters believe the Bucs will return to the basement of the NFC South, winning no more than eight games.
Now there is no explanation why they think the Bucs will take a step back next season. It’s hard to figure out why, given the Bucs have added DeSean Jackson, O.J. Howard and Chris Godwin to the offense, — after a season in which, save for Mike Evans and Cam Brate, the receiver corps was positively brutal last season.
Joe has a hunch about the rationale behind this terrible prediction.
First, the geeks frown upon the defense. That seems to be a narrative many had prior to the draft, suggesting the Bucs needed help defensively, not on offense.
And Joe would lay money a big reason the nerds for the frowning nerds is they absolutely despise the offensive line, led by Donovan Smith. Joe swears, in another life Smith must have stolen these guys’ lunch money and shat on their PlayStation console.
June 4th, 2017 at 8:13 am
Last year the Cardinals were preseason favorites and didn’t make the playoffs!So I don’t view BSPN’s prediction as an insult! The buccaneers are strong on paper but now they have to prove it cut the turnovers and the Defense needs to start where it left off!11-5 best case 9-7 worst case!I am calling at least a playoff win!
June 4th, 2017 at 8:15 am
Only if AP rips our D, and the Saints win two games against us.
June 4th, 2017 at 8:20 am
It’s always a fickle world; some teams have it all and can’t seem to get it together in some years–not just football, but any sport. Yeah that COULD happen. But consider if the stats geeks were always right (okay, even most of the time) there would be a lot more millionaires walking around than we see–from investing in stock markets to betting on sporting events. Alas, there are not that many. It’s a business, and they have their opinion. I have mine.
Are the Falcons hungrier than the Bucs? Doubt it. They still haven’t come to see their shadow. Brees and AP? Good, not great. Maybe with some Geritol. I think the Panthers will be the biggest competition. And I think they may still have a hangover, and their secondary is BRAND NEW.
June 4th, 2017 at 8:37 am
ZERO percent chance we finish last unless catastrophic injuries and I think finish ahead of neW Orleans with fitz
June 4th, 2017 at 8:38 am
This is a silly exercise for stats geeks. There are no stats because we haven’t had the first play!!!
How much can last year’s stats mean this year? Some baseline indication? Perhaps but it’s really a broad stroke because this year’s teams are not the same as last years.
Think how DRAMATICALLY different the Buc’s offense will be. D will be changed.
Realize this is true for every other team in the NFL and for half of them trying to solve a QB situation it’s even worse.
So you multiply our change times the change of our opponents and last year is WELL last year.
I do not share the same level antipathy towards stats as many here but I gotta agree that stats from last year are not as important this time of the year as our eyeballs and brains looking at our team through camp and the pre season. Lets see what we have this year!!!!
June 4th, 2017 at 8:49 am
I’ve said since las season our defense is not really as good as it looked in those 5 games. I think they slightly improved from Lovie, but they aint there. Now if they play a little more aggressive they have the pieces to be really good but I’m expecting it to be they’re weakness.
June 4th, 2017 at 8:57 am
Kevin’s post has me curious. He’s worried about the D and with all the attention paid the O I can understand his concern.
We’ve made some interesting additions on D but enough? Will Noah break out this year. Will Baker add to our DL. Is Evans the real deal at safety.
And so what say ye JBF geeks. Will the 2017 Bucs owe their success or failure primarily to our offense or defense. Are we an offensive team or defensive? Do we even have a personality yet…enough to claim we’re either an O or D team?
I think our results in 2017 are going to be based 55% on O and 45% on D.
That’s just another way of saying I believe we have become an offensive team.
I still hold out hope though that the D will exceed my hopes and we’ll be a truly great balanced team. BTW I think our D will be good…just not as good as our O
June 4th, 2017 at 9:04 am
Apparently Peterson looks amazing so far with the Saints.
If he turns out to be great this year then Licht dropped the ball. He seemed like he wanted to join Jameis.
Doug really needs to bounce back this year.
June 4th, 2017 at 9:21 am
OL is a huge IF and the defense has big holes, derek carr and brees shredded thr bucs up, the panthers big question mark in the conference
June 4th, 2017 at 9:31 am
This division is so bunched up any team can win it or finish last.
June 4th, 2017 at 9:49 am
Big holes on defense? Go ahead and name the big holes on defense
June 4th, 2017 at 9:50 am
The pivotal person on offense will be Jamies. Will he take the next step up to more accurately reach our talented receivers? The most pivotal person on defense will be Mike Smith. Will his coaching expertise be enough to make up for some of the short comings on that side of the ball?
June 4th, 2017 at 10:01 am
Eric is right on this one!!! It will be mostly about who is the healthy team!!!!! With all of the NFC South’s divisional games crammed in the end of the season, it will be who is healthy and on a run those last 6 games!!!!!!!!
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!!!!!
June 4th, 2017 at 10:18 am
In fairness, the NFC South is the most competitive division for the NFL next year in this breakdown. The Bucs still have like a 28% chance to go to the playoffs.
The defense.. Last year was a tale of two haves. Expecting Mike Smith to come in, wave a magic wand and all of the sudden all of the players to be on exactly the same page was, to steal a phrase from my daughter, cray cray. Having Smith here for year two, can not and must not be understated. He was the biggest “free agent signing” in the off season if you will.
The kicker will be an upgrade either way.
The O-line.. first off, the interior is totally new. Sweezy, I know PFF hates this guy but I will listen to Tom Cable first..
https://www.joebucsfan.com/2016/06/numbers-support-sweezy/
https://www.joebucsfan.com/2016/03/breaking-down-j-r-sweezy/
Marpet to center is going to be an upgrade sooner than later.
Now.. A little Donovan Smith rant:
With all the kvetching (sorry Joe, just love the word pertaining to this) regarding the Oline Tackles and penalties, I took a serious look at all of both Smith and Dotson’s penalties. First off they were both top 4 in the league in penalties against.. keep that in mind for later. I consider penalties for tackles in two categories, one technique/ability driven (holding, illegal use of hands) and concentration penalties (Truebloods if you will, False starts and personal fouls) I found it interesting that after early in the first quarter of week 10, Smith committed 0 technique/ability driven penalties. Dotson’s were mainly technique driven throughout the year.
Lets go a bit deeper and compare the penalties of Smith to another Smith. Tyron Smith, LT for the Dallas Cowboys. DSmith only had 1 more technique driven penalty in 2016 than TSmith (who played in 3 less games)
One more little tidbit.. when was the last time two tackles were ranked in the top 4 in Penalties against.. that would be 2012. Cowboys tackles Doug Free and Tyron Smith (in his second season) were in the top 4 penalties that season.
Its way too early to give up on DSmith. He’s a third year guy that was thrown to the wolves and is coming out battered for sure, but not beaten. For sure TSmith has physical qualities that are superior than DSmith, no doubt and I’m not comparing them other than in penalties against, and the reaction to those penalties. This is his year to define himself. Just as no more excuses for Winston, no more excuses for Smith.
June 4th, 2017 at 10:45 am
I think our success will depend upon the offense’s improvement at a “responsibility percentage” of 60% offense/40% defense. And I am including an improved FG kicking game (with either kicker) as offense. I expect the offense to flat out sore ALOT more points, so the defense doesn’t have to have the pressure of holding teams to 20 points for us to win. Having to build upon a Mike Smith system, rather than learning a new one, should allow the D to play with more reactivity instead of that split second of “what’s my assignment” that proves deadly when learning a new system. Jameis threw for 4,000+ yards while learning the pro game with only one elite receiver. I believe our Achilles heel last year was drives not ending in TDs and settling for FG attempts. When those become TDs more often, it’ll soften the pressure on the D and K. GO BUCS!!!
June 4th, 2017 at 11:37 am
Good job Tnew!!! I have been trying to get Joe to start asking around this major issue!!!!!
The Sunday “Realist Repost”!!!!!!
The Buc Realist Says:
June 2nd, 2017 at 10:26 am
@Joe
The O-line should be improved, but you are sweeping the largest problem under the rug!!!!!!! DS76 was the most penalized O-lineman in the league!!! He is # 2 overall and DD69 was #7!!!! That is both of the Tackles of the Bucs in the Top 10 of most penalized players in the league!!!!!!
The “Real” Fans demand that you start asking, why they think they were penalized in buld, and how the Bucs plan to correct this major issue this year!!!!!
As Coach Bellicheat says ” Do your Job!!!!!!”
Go BUCS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
https://www.joebucsfan.com/2017/06/o-line-pretty-darn-good/#comments
June 4th, 2017 at 12:11 pm
Thin line between 8-8 and 10-6. A tipped pass, untimely fumble, missed FG. Not a stretch we finish 8-8 nor finish 10-6.
June 4th, 2017 at 12:30 pm
It’s hard to defend D SMITH or anyone that leads the entire NFL in penalties. It’s same as
ME13 drops a yeAR ago
Winstons turnovers
Martin running vision
Aguayo missing kicks
Marpet looks lke the real prize from that 2nd round draft. Idk Dsmith looks like he has some improving to do
June 4th, 2017 at 12:36 pm
What are stats anyway???
Stats are lies.
June 4th, 2017 at 12:50 pm
Excellent post tnew; hadn’t thought about what types of penalties Donovan & Dots were picking up, but it makes good sense. Both had way too many penalties, that’s not the issue. They need to improve on that this year, and I’m convinced that they will. Donovan in particular played game after game against some of the very best DLinemen in the NFL. Guys who are masters of getting in there quickly and also knowing which buttons to push to get Donovan committing penalties. I’m convinced that he’ll improve, but a large part of that hinges on Jameis IMO. He still needs to learn how to use his OLine more effectively (and to get rid of the ball faster).
And StPete, your assessment that our 2017 results will be “based 55% on O and 45% on D” sounds just about right to me for the season as a whole, but there may be a lot of ups & downs in those percentages like there were last year. The real key to our defense IMO is our offense. If Bucs can improve on the time of possession (less time for the defense on the field) and reduce the turnovers (potentially better starting field position) I’m convinced we can end up someplace from 9-7 to 11-5. This defense is going to surprise some folks this year I think, just like they did last year.
June 4th, 2017 at 12:57 pm
We shall see!
June 4th, 2017 at 1:09 pm
The defense played over its head last year. The talent level at several spots isn’t that good and I think that could be our Achilles heal next year. If they can step up again the sky is the limit for this team.
June 4th, 2017 at 2:06 pm
I’m not impressed with our roster. Our O-Line is horrible, the D-Line isn’t any better. I have no faith in the Secondary, and we have the least talented team in the NFC South. The Stats crew at ESPN gave them a better grade than I would have given them.. I give them less than a 10% chance of making the playoffs.
June 4th, 2017 at 3:08 pm
I saw this article previously. I bet those same geeks had Carolina in the Super Bowl last year and the Falcons as a mediocre team…..but I digress.
June 4th, 2017 at 3:17 pm
I’m not impressed with our roster. Our O-Line is horrible, the D-Line isn’t any better. I have no faith in the Secondary, and we have the least talented team in the NFC South. The Stats crew at ESPN gave them a better grade than I would have given them.. I give them less than a 10% chance of making the playoffs.
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Marpet at Center and Sweezy at right guard is an instant upgrade. Smith is also going into his third year so he should be progressing, especially being the offense for two full seasons prior. Dotson is getting old but is a vet and still solid.
Upgraded at safety with Justin Evans. Sure, hell have his rookie mistakes but he will be a stud in this league. The corner is our thinnest spot. Grimes played at a high-level last season and I think has another season like that in him. Hargreaves gained a lot of experience in pass coverage last year, and will learn to pick and choose his battles with being aggressive. We did get a vet in McClain to help solidify the third spot, and we will see how the rest of the cb crew shakes out in training camp. Ryan Smith is very athletic, and I am excited to see what he can do at the corner his position (His more natural position).
All in all I’d say the Saints have the weakest roster…and they may get even weaker losing Fairley due to health issues. I won’t predict playoffs yet, but I feel we have as good of a chance as any to win the division considering we play the other teams tough and probably improved the most in the offseason.
June 4th, 2017 at 3:40 pm
feelthepewterpower, your thoughts about our defense largely coincide with mine, except for a couple of positions. I personally doubt that Justin Evans will start at safety … he’s the opposite, right now, from what the ‘last line of defense’ should be IMO. Gambler? Questionable tackling skills? I see him as presently being in the #4 position in terms of safeties. In time he’ll move up the food chain, but not at season start IMO. Grimes & Hargeaves will do fine (sure hope they both stay healthy), and I think Ryan Smith & Jude will share the nickel responsibilities, at least for starters. I’m more concerned now about starting a rookie as our 3rd LB … we all keep assuming that Bond (a rookie for all practical purposes) and/or Beckwith have a leg up on the position, but maybe not. Might be premature to write off Glanton or Knox for the job. Regardless of who wins it, that position will be tested often early in the season to see if it’s the weak link.
June 4th, 2017 at 5:13 pm
It’s hard to tell who’s legit by week 6 of the regular season, let alone the begining of summer.
Weren’t the Vikings 5-0 to start last year, and then they absolutely tanked and missed the playoffs?
June 4th, 2017 at 7:50 pm
Patriots out the yingyang is so sickening. At least the Bucs vs the Pats game is one of the best matchups on the list.