Locked And Already Loaded
March 24th, 2017
Top analytics nerds are adamant
Is it possible the #WeaponsForWinston cry is already outdated?
It sure is, according to the Cadillacs of the stats-nerd crowd, FootballOutsiders.com.
In an analysis behind a pay wall at ESPN, the FO tribe combines receivers and tight ends and ranks each team’s unit.
The Bucs were No. 3 overall behind the 2017 Super Bowl participants.
Receivers/tight ends
1. New England Patriots
2. Atlanta Falcons
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4. New York Giants
5. Seattle Seahawks
6. Oakland Raiders
7. Pittsburgh Steelers
8. Los Angeles Chargers
9. Kansas City Chiefs
10. Dallas CowboysWhen comparing the rosters for Super Bowl LI, the advantage in receivers and tight ends tipped a bit toward the Falcons. But when we start the 2017 season, the Patriots will add a true No. 1 deep threat in Brandin Cooks and bring back the best tight end ever (*when healthy), Rob Gronkowski. Meanwhile, it was Tampa Bay’s Mike Evans, not Cooks, who led all Class of 2014 receivers in our DYAR metric last season. Now he has DeSean Jackson to help draw safety attention, and Cameron Brate has worked himself up to being one of the league’s top 10 tight ends.
For those keeping score at home, ALL but two of those 10 teams made the playoffs last season.
All positions and units were ranked using “advanced stats,” scouting reports and good ol’ fashioned dart-throwing. The Bucs only pulled another top-10 ranking (No. 10) in special teams, thanks to their punting unit.
The receiver/tight end ranking is interesting. Are the Bucs already loaded?
Yes, but they also desperately need depth at those positions.
March 24th, 2017 at 12:27 pm
No they’re not loaded. Add more in the draft, then they’re loaded.
March 24th, 2017 at 12:32 pm
^
I agree.
Desean Jackson is a turned ankle away from the offense being pedestrian like it was at the end of the season.
Still need another wr and TE.
March 24th, 2017 at 12:32 pm
this is terrible
March 24th, 2017 at 12:33 pm
you can never have too much fire power, I hope they draft at least 1 W/O who will make a name for himself (while on this team).
March 24th, 2017 at 12:38 pm
Need more attention to the defense and O-line.
March 24th, 2017 at 12:38 pm
And a back up to Winston
March 24th, 2017 at 12:55 pm
Now let’s do a survey about depth at wr/te. We are in the same boat as last year. Vjax went down and we had depth problems. If Djax goes down we are back to square 1.
March 24th, 2017 at 1:14 pm
not sure how much I buy this list really.. definitely seems to emphasize having a legit TE more than the 3rd WR..but the reality is that most teams don’t have elite or even solid 4th WRs
Not sure how the Broncos aren’t on this with DT & Sanders & better 3rd/4th WRs than us…
The Giants should be #1 probably at WR. Steelers have solid WR depth and TE depth
March 24th, 2017 at 1:16 pm
I think it’s reasonable to expect another WR and a TE are coming by way of the draft. I think we’re in a good position offensively once we get the RB question mark resolved.
March 24th, 2017 at 1:19 pm
Answer to all questions: D A L V I N C O O K
March 24th, 2017 at 1:31 pm
didn’t know Dalvin Cook was a wr/te. try to keep up.
March 24th, 2017 at 1:50 pm
The Bucs should target defensive line, offensive line or secondary in the first two rounds. There are plenty of nice RB’s, TE’s and WR’s available in the middle rounds.
Jameis is supposed to make those around him better. #WeaponsforWinston is treating him as if he’s a scrub QB who needs all the help he can get.
March 24th, 2017 at 1:51 pm
Those ranking do not include depth.
In that regard, the Bucs are very thin.
March 24th, 2017 at 2:19 pm
#WINS-WITH-WINSTON
March 24th, 2017 at 3:01 pm
#MOREweaponsforWinston! List be damned!
March 24th, 2017 at 3:02 pm
DEEEEEEEEEEP DRAFT, we’ll b ready to ride after it… Just watch
March 24th, 2017 at 3:21 pm
They must be planning on bringing Vincent Jackson back because everyone know we need more than DJAX. I still say pickup Michael Floyd and then we can say we have a great WR group. Then draft BPA rather it be Cook or the TE from Miami. Rest of draft concentrate on both lines and a safety.
March 24th, 2017 at 3:23 pm
This is the kind of crap Mark Dummynick read before the 2011 draft. Its simple. Our offense was the reason we missed the playoffs. Get #WeaponsForWinston.
March 24th, 2017 at 3:53 pm
Once we’re on the clock @ pick19… There’s going to be some serious names available and that pick will become VERRRRY valuable. LOTS OF OPTIONS, like acquiring more picks by moving back, maybe once or twice!!! We could really clean up with some brilliant draft maneuvering. Then we’ll be loaded. Game on.
March 24th, 2017 at 4:24 pm
I love the idea of trading back – multiple times if possible. Ever since we got Winston I’ve said trade back as much as possible and only trade up in mid rounds when the cost is a throwaway 6th or 7th round pick. Light seems to like to maneuver to picking 3 times in the first 2 rounds if possible
Trade back to like 26 with Seahawks who could use O-line and jump Denver( at 20) for their guy and get an extra late 2nd; then trade back again with a team picking top of R2 that is looking for a 5 year contract maybe for a QB and grab an extra early 3rd
R2 early-
R2 19-
R2 26-
R3 early-
R3 19-
R4-19
5-6 impact players sounds better than 2-3 and I love the guys available in that R2-R3 range.
That would honestly be the dream right there – Imagine this hall
Zay Jones – WR
Budda Baker – S
Pat Eflien – C
Sidney Jones – CB
Samaje Perine – RB
Jake BUtt – TE
March 24th, 2017 at 4:41 pm
If we go offense with first 3 picks I say TE/WR #1 WR/TE #2 RB #3
March 24th, 2017 at 4:44 pm
Fans screaming for a RB or WR…… well this draft is deep….
I’m all for trading back for more picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds
March 24th, 2017 at 4:46 pm
As far as starters, yeah. But there is zero depth. Not that many teams have depth, and certainly we have the best WR tandem in the league.
March 24th, 2017 at 5:00 pm
Guys.. trading back is extremely rare. It is not offered very often. Especially outside the top 10. If I were a GM I would trade back almost every year if possible.
For those of you disagreeing with this list, I do think that we are not quite there yet but I see the rational. Frankly, I am getting sick of people discrediting Desean Jackson. This guys is PERFECT for jameis. It really doesn’t get much better. Licht knew that. Jameis loves throwing home runs and Djax loves catching them. You heard what, he said, he’s only been overthrown a couple of times in recent memory. Djax vaults us up real quickly. Especially when you couple him with Evans. This is insane.
Now look at it this way, add in Doug Martin (assuming he does resort to his 2015 play which is entirely possible and likely in my mind), evans, huff, brate, hump, quiz, sims, and barber and this is a very good group. One extra player and we could be the falcons of last year. Two extra and we could be better.
March 24th, 2017 at 5:38 pm
I was looking at some stats from football outsiders – in particular their DYAR and DVOA values at WRs. Yes, these are just stats and they don’t tell the entire story, but it’s interesting to see who players compare when judged on the same numbers – and I do believe this isn’t subject judging, it’s based on stats, catch rates, defensive opponent, etc.
Anyways in DYAR, which is yards over a replacement player that is adjusted for the defensive player you’re playing against they have Mike Evans as 6th in the league – right above Antonio Brown, so that sounds really good and right in line with what most people think but bizarrely behind Cole Beasley, which isn’t really a name I’d put in the top 5. Their numbers show Evans 307 yards above a replacement player (which is very good). Next up on the list is Adam Humphries who is ranked 59th on their list – which seems a little high since that means he’s a #2 WR (32 teams x 2 starters), it has him with 66 yards in the DYAR metric. BUT, and here’s what is interesting, they have Russell Shepard with 88 yards with much much less action – so he doesn’t qualify for a ranking. Now to me I thought Shepard was a better WR when he played than Humphries was and this is the first time I’ve seen a stat that shows that. To my eye Shepard just looks more like a traditional NFL WR and I wish we had kept him around and moved him full time to WR just to see what he could do, to see if he could have been that solid #3 guy, but oh well. Another note is Josh Huff, who has a -15 DYAR number, meaning he was worse than a average replacement level player, which was very obvious if you watched him play at all. But to finish on a good note the stats for Freddie Martino are pretty good, he got 41 yards over replacement (defensive adjusted) – and didn’t trail too far behind Humphries, but much of that was probably on his big play against Chicago I’d guess.
Anyways not dogging on Humphries – although I don’t really want to rely on him as our #3 WR, but he certainly has a place as we know how much Dirk LOVED that bubble screen in Atlanta and Adam is a perfect fit for that.
I just hope the Bucs didn’t make a mistake with Shepard – to my eye he looked like a smaller version of VJ, which is very much a positive statement.
Oh and I guess I should mention VJ… he had a -19 in the DYAR rating. Not good, but he has always been a slow starter and he got injured early.
March 24th, 2017 at 5:40 pm
Oh and one other stat on the DYAR for those that car, they had D Jackson 12th overall with 242 yards over replacement (adjusted for defense). So from that angle the Bucs will truly have 2 of the best WR’s in football.
March 24th, 2017 at 5:46 pm
“Eric Says:
March 24th, 2017 at 5:00 pm
Guys.. trading back is extremely rare. It is not offered very often. Especially outside the top 10. If I were a GM I would trade back almost every year if possible”
Definitely true but it seems there are a least 2-3 trades in the 20-32 pick range every draft.
Last year there were 3 diff trades to move up in that range (Houston went up for Fuller, Broncos went up 5 spots for Lynch and gave up a 3rd, KC dropped out of bottom of r1 for another 4th & 6th)
The year before Denver traded up to 23 to get Shane Ray; giving up 2 5ths & Manny Ramriz. Ther ewas the seattle trade involving Unger/Graham using a late pick; and the Giants traded up to the top of the 2nd giving the Titans an extra 4th and 7th.
And in 2014 there were like 4 trades in the 20-32 range – so it’s very likely to happen this year.
I see it as a possibility because we pick right before Denver and there are multiple teams picking in the 20s that could use O-line help that may want to jump them (Seattle / Houston / Detroit / Miami )
March 24th, 2017 at 6:01 pm
While i love the current 3 recievers mentioned in the article. Everyone knows you need to be much deeper than that. Some people think hump is a good slot reciever. I dont think he is. i think the slot position could use a major upgrade. Im not sure what to expect from our CFL star/college teammate of Mike Evans. Maybe he could be a solid back up or #4 WR.
I would be pretty happy if we added just 1 more WR. Wouldnt even have to be a first or second round pick. Either an experienced vet, or a mid round pick with some up side would be ok with me.
March 24th, 2017 at 6:03 pm
On a side note. Jac Smith visiting with 49ers. He is a RFA but don’t want to lose him. This would be the year he stays fully healthy and gets 10+ sacks. Needs to stay home. Go Bucs!!!
March 24th, 2017 at 6:07 pm
Eric…we’re closer to the bowl than most fans realize.
March 24th, 2017 at 6:17 pm
We need a great offense and a good enough defense. The way the defense played the last 7 games of the season if we had had a better TE, RB(o line was part of that problem too) and a speedier WR to go with Godzilla13 we would have won the last 7. None would have been close calls AND would have made the playoffs to the 2nd round. We got the receiver and it’s obvious we’re not upgrading the ohline so we need a very good back with a good combo of speed/power/shiftiness. A TE who blocks & the speed to get open downfield and catches well will help the pass and run game.
March 24th, 2017 at 6:20 pm
Now I’m paintin’ the house and I’m mendin’ the fence
I guess I gone out and lost all my good sense
Too much work is hard for your health
I could’ve died drinkin’, now I’m killing myself
Now I’m feedin’ the dog, sackin’ the trash
It’s honey do this, honey do that
I sobered up, and I got to thinkin’
Girl you ain’t much fun since I quit drinkin’
March 24th, 2017 at 6:34 pm
Let me say something to y’all. I been thinking, some of you mad at some of us because we rep Dalvin. You call us homers. Well if you feel that be sure to refer to yo QB in the some light because he wants him as well. Ya see if your young QB points at someone and says “he will help my game He will make us better” and you shrug him off and disregard his desire. Well if it don’t workout which do you feel will stand the greatest chance to be looking another area code to call home. Jameis WINSton Dirk Koetter or Jason Licht. Think about it.
March 24th, 2017 at 6:35 pm
Ya see one of them ain’t going no where.
March 24th, 2017 at 6:41 pm
1st round- Obi Melifonwu(Safety)
2nd round- buddy baker(nickel)
3rd round- Chris Godwin(wide receiver)
4th round- Marlon Mack(running back)
That’s as far as I go. Go BUCS!!! Ya’ll need to stop being stuck on Dalvin cook
March 24th, 2017 at 6:42 pm
Budda*
March 24th, 2017 at 6:59 pm
Bucballbaby84 – I doubt Mack makes into the middle of the 4th round, but perhaps he does – if so and the Bucs didn’t take a RB already, it’s a great pick I think. Mack has some great combine numbers when you combine them all together – he’s more fast than quick but certainly showed a lot of quickness at USF. Mack can catch the ball, he has a runaway top gear that doesn’t show-up in the 40, and I think he can turn into a 3 down guy – but early in his career can play that Sims role. With Sims only under contract for this year and with a history of a lot of injuries, the pick of Mack even works if the Bucs did draft someone like Cook in the 1st round as it could replicate the Martin/Sims magic of 2015. The Bucs have a lot of holes so I’d be shocked if they went that route – but honestly, I’d love it as it should fix the RB position for the next 4 years and you might be able to flip Sims for a pick from someone.
March 24th, 2017 at 7:00 pm
………..he said “homer”……………
Lol
Stirling the pot, arent ya???????
March 24th, 2017 at 7:04 pm
We need another explosive WR to help stretch the field and KD Cannon is the answer.
March 24th, 2017 at 7:07 pm
I dare them not to draft Dalvin Cook. Especially considering the young man is lobbying for him. I dare them. If they brush the franchise off and not do all they can to acquire him they better make the playoffs next season. Because if they don’t that seat gone hot real quick. And if the Glazers haven’t shown anything they’ve shown they’ll cancel a HC and GM quick fast an a hurry. See it would be one thing if DM came back and rush for say 12 or 1300 yards but he didn’t and our run was obsolete. I dare them.
March 24th, 2017 at 7:21 pm
And to my point about Belichess defense from earlier in the day. How he plays defense from the back forward and the front backward. Unconcerned with elite pass rush. His formula placing his #1 corner on your #2 WR and bracketing your #1 WR. From the superbowl Julio 4 catches 87 yards,Sanu 2 catches 25 yards.
March 24th, 2017 at 7:29 pm
The best weapon Winston could have would be a really good O line. You can’t just draft wr and rb and expect to do well in the post season.
March 24th, 2017 at 7:50 pm
Where are you hearing Jameis is lobbying for Dalvin Cook cause I haven’t heard no such thing. All I’ve heard that’s anything close to that is Dalvin Cook saying it would be his dream to play in Tampa with Jameis. show me the facts you speak of.
March 24th, 2017 at 7:53 pm
Jameis wants what’s best for this team and he trusts that Jason Licht and Dirk koetter will do what’s best for this team as do I.
March 24th, 2017 at 8:25 pm
Two off seasons ago all I heard was that a “franchise quarterback” would make everyone around him better.
Now all I hear is that we need “weapons for Winston”.
He’ll. Almost anyone can be a “franchise quarterback” with all pros at all the skill positions.
Get him another asset in the 2nd or 3rd round and solidify this defense with the other picks.
I like Jameis but he needs to learn how to find the open receiver quicker and use his check down receivers better.
I’m worried the Bucs are encouraging the long ball, which has not been a strength. What was the last team to win a Super Bowl with that phiolosophy? The Raiders in the 80’s, maybe?
March 24th, 2017 at 9:08 pm
Jameis is way too mature and professional to make a stink about the Bucs not drafting Dalvin. Trust that.
March 24th, 2017 at 9:36 pm
Dav how many second year QBs have seen come inn right out the gate and carry the load on they’re own that fast. 84 and Blake if you listened to last nights podcast you would’ve heard Ira say there is legimate Pressure to draft Dalvin Cook. Joe ask from where,Ira responded with from a player you’ve seen play before a player that once played at FSU. Key word “pressure” kinda falls inn lines with what I’m saying above👆.
March 24th, 2017 at 9:45 pm
From fans.
March 24th, 2017 at 9:46 pm
I’m basically done with the debate. I’ll be falling back til around a few days before drsft night. This convo has gotten a little too rhetorical if you ask me. But Joe I wanted to make a suggestion before I slid. That yay or nay Dalvin Cook poll you plan on doing, How about You figure out a way to get the whole Tampa-Hilsborough area involved. To make it just exclusive to JBF is kinda pointless, You see all these FSU haters round here. They cool tho The Most High taught me to love them regardless. I Think we all would get a more accurate assessment that way I mean with Ira claiming the town would explode if they draft Dalvin I think it only right you include those legions of Bucs fans you mentioned the other day in that article. If not I can tell you the results now bro😂he won’t crack 1% round here man.
March 24th, 2017 at 9:48 pm
Of course the fans also Blake. And trust me them Glazer boys are aware. I’m out but I’ll be back in a few weeks.. Don’t worry.
March 24th, 2017 at 9:58 pm
Winston is a total FSU homer. Why wouldnt he be? Winston should stick to playing football and let the GM and coaches do their job.
Winston talking up his friend and former teammate means literally nothing. He would have said kind words about any scrub in that team. Look at all the good things he said about Roberto… sometimes you have to distance yourself from the familiar because bias usually doesnt work in your favor.
It’s like in fantasy football. I like to have a buc player or 2 on my team. Drafting doug Martin killed me last year. My bias for bucs players didnt work out. The other buc i drafted (albeit a very late round) vincent Jackson got me a whole load of nothing last year too. Sometimes familiarity works in your favor, but sometimes you’re too close and make a decision that isnt in the best interest of the team.
March 24th, 2017 at 11:06 pm
You better listen more closely to the podcast cause that’s not what he was saying at all lol. smh
March 24th, 2017 at 11:20 pm
He wanted the bucs to draft jalen Ramsey so so so much. Did they get him? No. Was it the end of the world when the bucs didn’t draft him? No. Did Jameis pout and cry and threaten to not stick with the bucs down the road cause they didn’t draft him? No. not at all. Still you read into what was said on that podcast wrong.
March 24th, 2017 at 11:38 pm
Ranked 3rd for receivers and tight ends by FO is a testament to how good Mike Evans is and how well Cameron Brate played last year. The problem is that there is no depth in either of those and many other position groups. Bring Vincent Jackson back and the receiving group looks good. The first round pick in the draft should be best player available. TE OJ Howard, RB Leonard Fournette or RB Christian McCaffrey. Best Safety available in the 2nd round and DT/DE in 3rd.
March 25th, 2017 at 1:37 am
I’m almost positive we pick up Obi in the first. We have one free safety and that’s J.J. Wilcox who’s not even a real starter. He’s real good depth though.
March 25th, 2017 at 4:31 am
Good catch Rod.
Football Outsiders says Cole Beasley is a top 5 WR and DeSean Jackson is short of the top 10. The Cadillac of football analytics? No….they’re not.
The “Cadillac” reference was sarcasm.–Joe
March 25th, 2017 at 8:13 pm
Why is everyone forgetting about josh huff??? The kid has potential. Don’t sleep on him.
March 26th, 2017 at 7:56 pm
As a third or fourth receiver the Bucs need to pick up Anquan Boldin for 1-2 years ..Second-year Club option he’s are awesome veteran player.. think of the possibilities for Jameis and the team..Who can stop them..Who could stopped at 3… Somebody tell the Bucs front office about this..!!!