Accountability
March 19th, 2017
“All I ask Jason is, please, don’t draft a long-snapper and you are secure with my team.”
Friday night as the majority of Bucs fans were either awash in green beer or knee-deep into watching college hoops, a bombshell came across Twitter. Good guy Peter Schrager of FOX Sports and NFL Network reported the Bucs signed kicker Nick Folk.
(Damn, it’s a good thing for Joe that Nick Foles wasn’t signed as well. That would really screw up Joe. Even now, when Joe types “Folk,” he has to double-check he’s not typing “Foles” or the wrong last name altogether.)
Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht is fond of saying the best thing he learned from working with Bill Belicheat is that Belicheat told told him everyone makes mistakes but don’t compound your mistake by letting it fester. Cut your losses and move on.
And while incumbent kicker Roberto Aguayo still has a spot on the roster, surely he can hear the NFL’s grim reaper sharping his scythe in the background.
Licht is putting his Belicheat education front and center: Aguayo, you best be perfect in the preseason if you hope to keep your job. Even that may not be enough.
Jenna Laine of ESPN believes the Folk signing means more, much more, and it is not just a shot across the bow of Aguayo’s boat, but both an encouraging sign and a warning for the rest of team.
It would have been a dissservice to all other positions not making Aguayo have to earn his job with the performance he had last year. Kicking is a different animal, but this makes Aguayo just as accountable as a wide receiver who drops too many passes or a defensive back blowing too many coverages. Dirk Koetter has also said that he and general manager Jason Licht have no problem cutting a player drafted in the second round, referring to Austin Seferian-Jenkins, who was cut immediately after a DUI arrest last year.
If Aguayo does lose his job, it’s a bold statement from a general manager who is bold in the draft. That would make two second-round picks tossed overboard in less than a year.
Who can forget — much as we may try — the vaunted Bucs career of one ASJackwagon?
Licht’s moves with the aforementioned picks tells the team: If you are totally inept or well-known more as a fool than for any play you made on the football field, and you also get run from an underwear football practice (!), you may want to have a life backup other than playing for the Bucs — no matter where you were drafted.
The easy thing for Licht to have done was to offer faux public support of Aguayo and not bring in competition, hoping Aguayo turns things around making Licht look like a genius.
Instead, Licht decided to eat a very public crap sandwich and to improve his team no matter the hit he may take in the court of public opinion.
March 19th, 2017 at 1:55 am
I’m only wondering why the stanky Jets would cut him loose…
March 19th, 2017 at 1:56 am
$2,000,000 is nothing if you can hit a 40 yarder
March 19th, 2017 at 2:32 am
Did you just make an indirect swipe at Joe Mixon and Reuben foster in that second to last paragraph?
March 19th, 2017 at 2:40 am
Yuck! Enough with the “bold” statements and requisite drama applied to a rather routine matter. This guy sucks at kicking the football through the big tall yellow upright poles. The guy that spent too damn much on him has decided to make his way toward cutting his losses 1 preseason game and 16 regular season games too late. Aye, so goes the fevered ego.
This guy was brutal to watch, even when we were playing Jacksonville in the fn preseason. Enough already. If you guys are serious about playoffs and real winning then enough with the feel good keeker stories that make your bizarre GM fantasies come true. Some of you fanboys are way too close to the stinkhole on this one. Enough.
March 19th, 2017 at 2:41 am
Ok no now i get it, you’re talking about that training camp practice where we booed Aguayo for shanking a kick so badly it looked like it was blocked! Hahaha I was there at that practice Joe and that Kick was certainly boo worthy!
But that was a great practice, i still remember that Incredible catch Mike Evans made straking down the right side line, and the crowd exploding in glee at the sight. I knew Mikey was gonna have an amazing season after that practice.
March 19th, 2017 at 3:00 am
Does it help to repeat that AguaOh,no drafting, Michael Johnson signing, Anthony Collins paying, Revis cutting, McCown starting, IR Sneezy ignoring, ASJ coddling, incompetent Lovie Smith foot rubbing…
Jason Licht loves AC/DC?
March 19th, 2017 at 5:37 am
Have to give Jason Licht much more credit than I’d give his predecessor when it comes to drafting. Looking at Licht’s 1st & 2nd rnd picks (2014-2016), the only one we’ve ‘lost’ is ASJ. Admittedly Aquayo is a bit tenuous at this point, but all the rest (Jameis, Mike Evans, Donovan Smith, Ali Marpet, VHIII & Noah Spence) have been outstanding. Compare the 1st & 2nd rnd picks for his predecessor in the preceding 3 yrs (2011-2013) and it’s pretty bleak. Only Martin & David are still with us out of 6 picks, and Martin’s tenure with the Bucs is looking tenuous at this point. The other picks (Clayton, Bowers, Barron & Banks) have all pressed on for various reasons, plus we gave up our 2013 #1 pick for the honor of having Revis with us for 1 whole yr (well, that plus $16 mil of course). And for the year prior to that (2010), only GMC remains with us out of 3 picks (Price & Benn were both 2nd rnd picks). Comparatively, Jason Licht is a genius.
March 19th, 2017 at 6:01 am
I believe I have lived long enough to see the best GM/ HC combination in franchise history. It’s no coincidence that we likely have the best QB/WR combination as well. It’s just the beginning. Can’t wait for the draft.
March 19th, 2017 at 6:32 am
Good. Never let pride get in the way of doing what needs to be done.
March 19th, 2017 at 7:31 am
I hardly think that CBs & WRs not performing are like a kicker…..you can bench a CB or WR……can’t bench a kicker. If you have one kicker on the roster, he must be able to perform.
March 19th, 2017 at 7:36 am
I see a troll and his name rhymes with phallus
March 19th, 2017 at 7:37 am
Dave is back! He couldn’t hold back…..SMH
https://www.joebucsfan.com/2017/03/contehate-is-real/
Hillarious!!!
March 19th, 2017 at 7:44 am
Licht will be proven to be a GM genius, or at least damn close very soon.
This move makes total sense.
I don’t know why any team would want to trade for him, so stick with him a little longer.
Licht may have made a big mistake drafting Aguayo that high, but he would be a fool to just cut him before giving him one more season to get the yips out of his system.
Let him compete and hopefully learn from Folk.
Carry 2 kickers for 1 year.
The silly knee-jerk reaction would be to cut him.
Kicking is a different animal and Aguayo has some misfiring neurons somewhere between the snap and his foot contact.
DallasBuc, Licht is a much better GM then you give him credit for.
March 19th, 2017 at 7:56 am
Congrats Dallas! You’ve really become the new JBF Biggest D!CK !!
March 19th, 2017 at 7:58 am
No doubt this team is in go mode. Time to contend. They have built thru the draft, acquired talent where needed in FA (likely not done), cut their losses and have brought in competition at key positions As a result they have improved their record in each of the past 3 years with a solid core of young players.
Sounds like the solid resume of a high performing GM to me. My only hope is that this team contends so much with Jason at the helm that they absolutely have to put him in the ring of honor. I know this would bring us all great joy.
March 19th, 2017 at 8:13 am
It’s not even 8:15, and guess who whined twice already.
March 19th, 2017 at 8:21 am
“everyone makes mistakes but don’t compound your mistake by letting it fester. Cut your losses and move on.”
How did lovie get a second year then???????
Go Bucs!!!!!!
March 19th, 2017 at 8:52 am
If Roberto Aguayo does not work out, Jason Licht’s draft record takes a big hit, especially with second round picks.
Unlike most of you, including J0E, I’m not giving up on Roberto Aguayo just yet. I’m rooting for him to succeed. And that’s the difference between a Bucs fan and a Hater. A fan would rather see players do well because it helps the team become better.
And haters?
Well, we saw most of you want Mike Evans cut in 2015 because of a few drops and not enough TDs. Even though he STILL broke 1,200 yards that year. Haters nearly always turn out wrong, so my money is on Roberto Aguayo.
March 19th, 2017 at 8:54 am
You can bet that if the Bucs tried to put him on the practice squad, a team would claim him off waivers.
March 19th, 2017 at 9:06 am
Good to see Bonzai is back with his tired old ‘how to be a fan’ lectures backed up with strong arguments like calling people ‘hater’ because that level of articulation really bold and incisive. Keep up the good work Bonzai.
March 19th, 2017 at 9:08 am
I hope Aguayo never misses again… I really do, but if he doesn’t have his stuff sorted out by the end of preseason. Peace out✌️ 2 round pick or not, I want the BEST kicker possible kicking for our BUCS!!!
March 19th, 2017 at 9:20 am
I agree that cutting ASJ and bringing in Folk shows that Licht is very disciplined GM. He does not care about the criticism and only cares about what’s best for the team. However, how many 2nd round wiffs should the Glazer’s tolerate?
March 19th, 2017 at 9:57 am
There are many studies showing bust rates for draft picks. I stumbled across this link this morning which is IMHO the fairest, most accurate, way to look at the entire draft process.
http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round
I liked their criteria better than the rest. They simply took the last ten years…apples to apples..the game has changed dramatically even since stars like LT…or Joe Montana were playing. They didn’t try to determine who starred…subjective…they simply looked at who worked out as a starter for at least half their career. They also didn’t lump all players together but broke it down by position which is also fairer method.
Read and see some interesting tidbits…
Of the 122 QBs drafted in the last 10 years only 25 have been starters for at least half of their career.
The first round gives you a 63% chance of finding a starter.
The second round gives you a 27% chance, the third a 17% chance, then it really plummets from there with 8% in the fourth and 6% in the 7th.
In the last 10 years, 38 QBs have been drafted in the 5th and 6th rounds and not one has become a starter.
And for those pooh poohing taking an RB in the first round the number are not backing you up. The site wisely concedes that RB’s over the past ten years are effected by the increasing RBBC…running back by committee. Still the odds of getting a starting RB are effected DRAMATICALLY by which round we pick them.
There is a very high bust rate for RBs. The first round gives you a 58% chance of finding a starter followed by 25% in the second, 16% in the third, 11% in the fourth, 9% in the fifth, 6% in the sixth and 0% in the 7th.
If you rank the rounds by the total RBs drafted you find that the greatest number are drafted in the 7th, followed by the 4th, 6th, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, and 5th.
If you want a stud RB, they are likely to come from the first round. If you are looking for depth, the fourth round seems to be the place to go.
If you look at this and other draft success/bust sites it’s hard to argue that Licht has not done an excellent job given the odds of success. Concentrating on one round…the 2nd…over a 3 year period is just statistically stupid. The fact that Licht’s biggest failures have come in the 2nd is coincidence…he could have missed in the 1st…3rd…4th and the rest just as easily.
Bottom line…Licht HAS overcome the odds regardless of what Dave/Dallas wants us to believe. But as Dallas/Dave would point out we are all entitled to our opinions and we all know that opinions are like……
March 19th, 2017 at 10:09 am
@DayOnePaul
Folk was making 3 million a year and was cut for salary cap reasons in NY. They chose to go with a younger cheaper option that they felt wouldn’t be much of a drop off from Folk.
March 19th, 2017 at 11:16 am
So in short Pete “IF” a team views RB as a possible need going into the draft GMs and HCs are really “rolling the dice” so-to-speak if they are planning to take one outside the first round. I guess Koetter might’ve read that chart prior to making his comments about simply waiting to draft a RB in the later rounds during the combine. Great work Sir. Thanks.
March 19th, 2017 at 11:28 am
If I’m not mistaken one of those 25 quarterbacks who started for more than half of their career was Josh Freeman. Perhaps I missed something in the details though. However, if the results to do include Josh Freeman then they are a little suspect in my mind.
March 19th, 2017 at 11:56 am
Good stuff, StPete! Gruden and Allen would focus on drafting starters in the first two rounds and then take the rest of the draft off to focus on special teams. Perhaps, that’s not such a bad strategy, but after round two, should the focus still be on need? It would be great for us to stumble on a Tom Brady-like find in the later rounds.
March 19th, 2017 at 12:07 pm
Great stuff st. pete. And I wouldn’t really say Licht’s biggest failures have been in the 2nd round to be honest. Let’s look at his draft picks the last 3 years from the 2nd round.
2014 – ASJ – failure
2015 – D. Smith – solid pick
2015 – A. Marpet – amazing pick (could be steal of the draft, along with Kwon)
2016 – N. Spence – solid, potential to be a stud (could be steal of the draft)
2016 – R. Agauyo – not ready to call him a failure yet. Most kickers have struggled a lot their rookie season. Check out seabass for an example.
March 19th, 2017 at 12:19 pm
Unbelievable
I agree with you! But the negative nellies here seem to wish to focus on ASJ and the potential bust of Aguayo.
I sometimes wonder if we should just ignore the true negative people here. Nothing is ever perfect or lollipops and unicorns…but when the focus becomes so negative it can also impact the clarity and credibility of our posts.
March 19th, 2017 at 1:20 pm
People here blast Licht for having two poor second round picks and label him a bad GM because of it, but entirely look over the fact that he’s found a couple of studs in the later rounds and in undrafted players. Pamphile, Kwon, Benenoch to a lesser extent in late rounds, and Hump and Brate after the draft ended. So tell me again how he sucks at the draft?
March 19th, 2017 at 3:21 pm
Yea I’d agree about that.
Honestly, people who criticize Licht on his drafts really just don’t know what they’re talking about. He seems to be well above the averages and we have a great young core, even with misses like ASJ.
Now if you want to criticize his move in free agency, I could understand that. Although it seems like last year and so far this year were much better than the first year w/ Lovie. Results remain to be seen.
IMO, Licht is the best GM this team has had in a long, long time.