Now It’s The Packers
December 20th, 2016
Olivia Munn and her boyfriend Aaron Rodgers now are enemy No. 1.
Could it be 2010 all over again?
Back in 2010, the Bucs improbably won 10 games. Yet they and the Giants lost out on the playoffs in a three-way tiebreaker to the Green Bay Packers.
Yes, that same team that went on to win the Super Bowl.
Per NFL.com (Joe hopes they would know), if the season ended today, the Bucs would still miss the playoffs. To the Packers. Again.
Last night, the Stinking Panthers beat the Redskins. That gives the Bucs the edge over the Redskins (7-6-1). But now the Packers (8-6) have the edge over the Bucs in a tiebreaker that frankly, gives Joe a headache trying to figure out.
For those who enjoy abstract puzzles and like to torture themselves with algebra, go ahead and click here. It has all the tiebreaker minutia you can handle.
(Yes, the Bucs would be better off if the Packers win the NFC North as the Bucs currently would have a better shot at a tiebreaker over the Lions.)
The easiest way to wrap your head around all of this is to hope the Bucs win out, and drink heavily.
December 20th, 2016 at 5:29 am
Our offense needs to come up big this week, but I’m not sure they can. I think Brees is going to put up a lot of points. I’ll still be hopeful of the future, even if we lose our last 2.
December 20th, 2016 at 5:42 am
In 2010 it was the refs this year it would be 100% on the Bucs as they crapped the bed in prime time. Offense needs to step it up these last two weeks as the Saints and Panthers seem to be closing out the season strongly
December 20th, 2016 at 5:42 am
Bucs will hold tiebreaker over Packers if both finish 10-6.
December 20th, 2016 at 5:45 am
Also if Packers win the next two, they win NFC North and we hold tiebreaker over Lions even if Lions beat Cowboys & lose to Packers. Long story short, with Redskins losing last night, we truly control our destiny.
Win out and we either go in as a division rep or wildcard.
December 20th, 2016 at 6:03 am
yeah joe why you tryin’ to stir the pot?…if we win out we’re in homie…
the only problem is that it’s very difficult to beat a division opponent twice in a year, and that’s what we have to do…
and the saints 2 times in three weeks is like some wild style sh*t…
it’s a tall order, but as i said we do control our own destiny…
adam from ny
December 20th, 2016 at 6:08 am
da fuq joe…why you ying yangin’ people…ima tell the commish…hahahajajjajahahhehehe…be good boy!
we win out – we fin out – we in no dowt!
adam from ny
December 20th, 2016 at 6:12 am
Joe is right. If we tie with packers they are in based on strength of schedule. It would be better for us to tie with lions. We hold tie breaker over them as long as they lose to cowboys. If they beat cowboys we lose tie breaker due to rams game. Best thing for us to hope is either lions lose to cowboys or beat Green Bay.
December 20th, 2016 at 6:14 am
It’s simple, the Bucs must win out. However, not sure they will. Again, too many weaknesses. This weekend, Brees will exact his revenge I think. Perhaps next season the Bucs will make it to the Wild Card game. Who knows?
December 20th, 2016 at 6:14 am
Other ways we get in is if giants drop 2 and we win out or falcons drop 1 and we win out
December 20th, 2016 at 6:22 am
ESPN (Joe’s favorite website) slots the bucs over the packers for 6 seed, noting “Wins tie break over Green Bay based on best win percentage in common games.”
Bears, falcons, cowboys, Seahawks. Bucs 3-1 and packers 2-2.
Again the joes bury their heads in the sand to FACTS
December 20th, 2016 at 6:25 am
@leighroy that site is wrong. It’s already been noted by several people. There is something wrong with tie breaker procedure. If u use Nfl website or do the math manually Green Bay is above Tampa
December 20th, 2016 at 6:37 am
Please get us in the Playoffs Joe, do whatever you can, even if you have to cheat the results.
December 20th, 2016 at 6:52 am
Perhaps folks are getting ahead of themselves again? The ONLY game that matters is Bucs vs Saints on Christmas Eve at 4:25 PM in the Superdome.
Bucs have a lot of work to do if they expect to beat the Saints a 2nd time … in their house this time. And with several of their key players back. Sure do hope that Dots is healthy for that game. Same with Stocker & Gholston (both must still be hurting based on reduced snaps in Dallas game).
December 20th, 2016 at 6:55 am
According to BSPN: Tampa Bay “Wins tie break over Green Bay based on best win percentage in common game.” Hopefully this is not BS.
December 20th, 2016 at 6:57 am
Yup, did the math manually. 3-1 > 2-2. You can’t count division games twice if each team didn’t play twice.
December 20th, 2016 at 7:02 am
Bucs still have a good chance
If dallas beat the lions on sunday, we are in as long as we win out
If the falcons lose on sunday we are in as long as we win out
December 20th, 2016 at 7:02 am
Fuzzy math
December 20th, 2016 at 7:05 am
They count division games twice
December 20th, 2016 at 7:06 am
We have to win out or ATL take two losses. It’s simple as that. Not really, either the Lions or Packers going to loses one more game, that could help if the birds don’t lose. Giants likely not gonna lose two to help us. Win and let’s see what happens, good thing about winning is you start another streak.
December 20th, 2016 at 7:20 am
The packers or lions have to lose one more game they play each other so that’s our wild card if we don’t win division
December 20th, 2016 at 7:22 am
What the hell Joe. A real article stating that the Bucs once again have control over their playoff hopes would be much better then a click bait article like this.
December 20th, 2016 at 7:25 am
None of this will matter if the Bucs don’t win their last two games.
December 20th, 2016 at 7:34 am
I have a bad feeling this team will be regretting that Rams game all off season. Jameis missing an open VJax still haunts my dreams
December 20th, 2016 at 7:41 am
If we win our next two games and Atlanta loses one none of the other teams matter ,we win the division
December 20th, 2016 at 7:44 am
Joe, BSPN has us in based on better win percentage in common games, all we have to do is win these next two games and we are IN!!!!
December 20th, 2016 at 7:58 am
It is simple. If we win out we are in! If Green Bay wins both then they win the division and we win the tie breaker over the Lions. And yes, if Atlanta drops one and we win both we win our division but I don’t see Atlanta lose (until the wild card games vs the Bucs!LOL)
December 20th, 2016 at 8:14 am
Bucs have swept division foes in the past. It’s not impossible. Truth is neither Aints nor Panthers are playoff bound this season. This Bucs fan is planning on ENJOYING listening to Gene, Dave and the rest of the Bucs Radio Krewe broadcast the last 2 games. Tampa Bay is already at over .500 which I predicted. They are developing into not just a quality team, but quite possibly a dynasty one. DK, Smith and Licht need this off-season to finish the job. We need WR, OL/DL, and DB players. Tampa Bay is almost there, fellow Bucs Brethren. Next season will be fun. 🙂 Go Tampa Bay!!!!
December 20th, 2016 at 8:16 am
I’m OK with Rogers as PE#1 but Olivia, not a chance
December 20th, 2016 at 8:25 am
It’s true that the Bucs have swept the Saints and the Panthers in past seasons but not both in the same season. I think that the Bucs can do it.
December 20th, 2016 at 8:38 am
The bucs currently have the 6 spot over common games, what are you talking about?
December 20th, 2016 at 8:38 am
We can try to figure out tie breakers until our heads explode. The bottom line is that we have to win out period. That is going to be a tall order since we are not playing great and beating the Saints twice in 3 weeks will be tough but I think we can do it. I am actually more concerned about trying to beat the Panthers who are getting hot here at the end of the season.
So this is really coming down to us winning out, The Cowboys beating the Lions which is very probable and the Packer and Lions basically playing for the NFC North title the last week. The key here is we need to win out and hope Dallas beats Detroit. If that happens we will be in regardless of who wins against Green Bay and Detroit since we would be 10-6 and the loser of that game would be 9-7. Detroit has a rough road with Dallas and Green Bay and they could very well lose both. Just win out Bucs and you probably are in the post season.
December 20th, 2016 at 8:39 am
I don’t think we’re going to make the playoffs. That Dallas game took a toll on us. It showed that we are not a playoff team yet. We will probably end up 8&8, hopefully 9&7 at best. The future looks brighter. Go Bucs.
December 20th, 2016 at 8:52 am
If we win the last two games, we’re in.
If Falcons lose 1, we take the division.
If the Lions win out, they’re 11-5, Packers are 9-7 and Bucs are 10-6 (and in the playoffs).
If the Packers win out, they, the Lions and Bucs are all 10-6. Lions would lose division tie breaker to Packers (head to head) and would lose wild card tie breaker to Bucs (strength of victory).
So despite the loss to the Cowboys, the Bucs still control their own destiny.
December 20th, 2016 at 8:53 am
This is not a playoff team. I’m just glad we are avoiding a losing record. Still at least a year away from being able to to anything meaningful in the playoffs. Finish the season strong and address some glaring needs on offense in the offseason.
December 20th, 2016 at 9:28 am
What do you mean they’re not a playoff team??? They just won 5 games in a row which included a couple of likely division winners. We went to Dallas and had a 4th quarter lead against probably the best team in the league. We did that with a back up right tackle that was a mere speed bump and our franchise QB that had an off night. This is not me just be a homer. This team most certainly should be a playoff team. Jesus Christ do they have to be 16-0 for you guys to think they are a playoff team. You negative fans suck.
December 20th, 2016 at 9:37 am
We are not a playoff team? Guess what, if the next two weeks are Bucs victories and we get a playoff spot then guess what??? We are a playoff team and deservedly so. Some of you people who pack it in because we lost by 6 points to arguably the best team in the NFC at their field suddenly means we are not a playoff team. Laughable. Are the Chiefs a playoff team? How about the Seahawks or Falcons? Last I checked we have beaten all of them “Playoff teams” but we are not a “Playoff team”. What a joke some of you poser fans are. Just go find a new team already.
December 20th, 2016 at 9:58 am
We need to beat 2 teams with loosing records & we are in. Let’s do this!
December 20th, 2016 at 11:40 am
Or win the next two, falcons lose one and we win the division and none of this matters.
December 20th, 2016 at 11:40 am
Actually ESPN playoff machine has it wrong. Both Packers and Lions have a strength of victory edge over us. If Lions beat Cowboys and then lose to Packers, Lions will be 4-1 in common opponents to Bucs 3-2. So Lions will HAVE to lose to the cowboys at any cost. I take back my earlier posts, ESPN playoff simulator is flawed.
December 20th, 2016 at 11:58 am
You are correct except they don’t have to lose to the Cowboys at any cost. If the Packers lose to the Vikings the Bucs are back in the drivers seat. If the Lions beat the Packers we are obviously in as well. Only one scenario denies us the playoffs if we win out. If the Packers win out and the Lions beat the Cowboys but lose to the Packers. Anything other than that and the Bucs are in if they run the table.
December 20th, 2016 at 12:14 pm
Lions will lose out. Packers will win out. Packers win division and make playoffs. Bucs will make playoffs as 6 seed as long as they win out. Just win and there’s not much to worry about
December 20th, 2016 at 12:15 pm
If the Packers and Bucs win out, the Bucs are in the playoffs on the basis that the Packers win the NFC North and that Detroit will have a worse conference record than the Bucs. Plain and simple… if the Lions win out, they beat the Packers, giving them 7 losses, and the Bucs win out… the Bucs are in the playoffs.
No matter how it shakes out, the Bucs win their last 2 games of the season, there is no scenario that keeps them from the playoffs. That should be your story and headline, Joes.
December 20th, 2016 at 12:16 pm
T in Orlando Says:
December 20th, 2016 at 8:52 am
If we win the last two games, we’re in.
If Falcons lose 1, we take the division.
If the Lions win out, they’re 11-5, Packers are 9-7 and Bucs are 10-6 (and in the playoffs).
If the Packers win out, they, the Lions and Bucs are all 10-6. Lions would lose division tie breaker to Packers (head to head) and would lose wild card tie breaker to Bucs (strength of victory).
So despite the loss to the Cowboys, the Bucs still control their own destiny.
______________________
this is 100% correct. Except the Bucs have a better conference record than Lions which gets them in even before strength of victory comes into play.
December 20th, 2016 at 12:26 pm
No Brandon it is not. ESPN has already retracted what they stated earlier. The Bucs would lose the common opponent tie breaker if the Lions beat the Cowboys and lose to the Packers as it would come to that as the first tie breaker. This is all very clearly spelled out in an article on another site. I won’t say what that site is but if you follow the Bucs closely you will know what it is. There is no doubt about this and it is very detailed and accurate.
December 20th, 2016 at 12:31 pm
Here’s how it breaks down –
Head-to-Head – Not applied as the teams did not face each other this season.
Division – Not applied because the teams do not reside in the same division
Conference Record – Tied. Both teams are 6-4
Common Games – Tied. Both teams are 3-2 (note: ESPN lists the Bucs as winning this tie-breaker, we’ve confirmed that they are indeed wrong. In fact, on Sportscenter they are reflecting the playoff standings accurately but on their site it’s still wrong)
Strength of Victory – Tied. Each team’s SOV is .442
Strenght of Schedule – Green Bay has a slightly tougher SOS .510 to .505 – it is by the narrowest of margins, Seattle’s tie gives the Pack a half game edge.
So that is why Green Bay has jumped the Bucs. With that said, the Bucs are still in great shape if two things happen this week –
They beat the Saints
Dallas beats Detroit.
If these two things happen, the Bucs will control their playoff fate heading into Week 17, as the Lions will get their 6th loss and the Detroit-Green Bay game becomes a “play-in” game. One of those teams will take the 7th loss.
In addition, if the Bucs were to lose to the Panthers in the season finale and both teams finish 9-7, the Bucs currently own the tie-breaker on the Lions (if they beat the Saints and the Lions lose to Dallas), in that scenario like the Packers, the Bucs are tied with the Lions in conference record and common games but the Bucs strength of victory is significantly stronger than Detroit’s.
December 20th, 2016 at 12:43 pm
Per that last sentence, if the Lions beat the Cowboys they take the advantage in the common opponent tie breaker. So again, the only way the Bucs don’t make it if they win out is if the Lions beat the Cowboys and lose to the Packers. For this to come into play the Packers would have to beat the Vikings. I like our chances. In poker terms I would say we have the King and Queen of hearts and the flop was 10 of hearts, Jack of hearts Jack of clubs and our opponents has pocket twos.
December 20th, 2016 at 1:24 pm
All of the Ifs are entertaining but the bottom line is we have to win out. I realize their may be a slim scenario where we could go 9-7 and still make it but we really need to go 10-6. I do not see the Lions beating the Cowboys and Packers. I think the Redskins are pretty much done as well. Either the Lions or Packers will win the NFC North and as I understand it, based on tie breakers, we want the Packers to beat the Lions. I really do not see the Packers losing to the Vikings, so we need the lions to lose their remaining games which is very possible based on their schedule. The Bucs have a tough schedule to finish out also though. We really need these next two games to be wins. Time for the Bucs to man up if they want to be contenders.
December 20th, 2016 at 1:44 pm
You all are making my head spin with the possibilities of the Buccs making the playoffs. I hated basic math in school also.
December 20th, 2016 at 1:57 pm
It’s simple Buccfan! Let’s kick some ass the next two games and we should be in!
December 20th, 2016 at 2:56 pm
Ah yes, in 2010 the Bucs are the hottest team in the NFL, Freeman is still fat and tearing it up on the field with 4th quarter game winning drive after fourth quarter game winning drive, he truly looks like the next Big Ben. The at home against the Lions with everything on the line, the refs completely blow an offensive PI call in the end one, in the 4th quarter, the Bucs kick a FG because of the bogus call and lose the game and are elimated from the playoff race – putting the Packers into that slot. The NFL sends a “oops” the refs screwed up letter to the Bucs, the Packers go on to win the SB from the wildcard spot that belonged to Tampa and we’ve been subjected to non-stop Aaron Rodgers Discount Double-Check commercials – which never would have happened had Aaron Rodgers not won that SB. If the Bucs make the playoffs the Morris most likely isn’t fired the following year and Schaino isn’t hired and that means perhaps Freeman doesn’t allegedly turn to drugs to deal with the Jersey Trash(tm).
December 20th, 2016 at 7:07 pm
TouchDownTampaBay Says:
“I like our chances. In poker terms I would say we have the King and Queen of hearts and the flop was 10 of hearts, Jack of hearts Jack of clubs and our opponents has pocket twos.”
That’s a lot of outs – (3 Qs, 3 Ks, 4 Aces, 4 Nines and up to 9 Hearts) – and a very “pretty” hand – yet still only equated to about 56-58ish% chance of winning….
December 20th, 2016 at 8:50 pm
Actually it’s 71.24% odds of winning. I play a lot of poker and knew it was around 70%. My poker odds app gave me the exact number. With a paired board you have even more outs that would cancel out the twos.
December 20th, 2016 at 11:57 pm
“With a paired board you have even more outs that would cancel out the twos.”
Good point – forgot about the pair of ducks getting counterfeited by a 10 or runner runner pair when calculating (in my head btw).