Why Bucs Won’t Open The Vault For Gholston
December 30th, 2016
(Photo courtesy of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
So what’s a part-time, run-stuffing, young defensive end worth in the NFL?
This is the serious question in front of general manager Jason Licht, who has very interesting data to ponder.
During this season’s dominant stretch for the Bucs defense, the team’s five-game winning streak, Gholston played the following percentage of defensive snaps in those games:
Bears – 48%
Chiefs – 60%
Seahawks – 33%
Chargers – 53%
Saints – 52%
In every one of those games, rookie DE Noah Spence saw a lot more action than Gholston, as did Robert Ayers.
So when the Bucs were playing their best football, Gholston was the true No. 3 defensive end.
Gholston, 25, is an unrestricted free agent after this season, and Licht has the tough task of placing a cash value on the four-year veteran and 2013 fourth-round pick. Sure, Gholston is a valuable component of the roster and Joe would be pleased to see him return, but reality has to take hold. The NFL is a business.
Last February at the NFL Scouting Combine, a prominent NFL personnel man told Joe that Gholston would be worth about $7 million per season on the open market, and that number would climb if Gholston had a good 2016 season.
Fans have seen the gargantuan deals dropped in the laps of young defensive ends in recent years, from Everson Griffen to Olivier Vernon to Malik Jackson and beyond.
Is Gholston worth it, considering he’s not a threatening pass rusher? Would Licht be able to march into Team Glazer’s office and explain why Gholston should be paid $9 million a season?
It feels awfully hard to open the vault for a rotational player.
Of course, Joe doesn’t know the Bucs’ big picture personnel plan, but Joe does know Tampa Bay needs an improved pass rush and Ayers, 31, was signed as a “bridge” free agent. No, Joe doesn’t think Ayers is here as a bridge to Gholston.
Joe’s not advocating kicking Gholston to the curb, but there will be — and should be — a limit on what the team will pay him.
December 30th, 2016 at 11:10 am
Agreed. Sign him if the numbers he is asking for are reasonable. If he wants to go eat up more cap than he’s worth, then I’ll be happy to let another team justify that to themselves.
December 30th, 2016 at 11:27 am
50+ players make up the puzzle for who you pay and why. You can argue it a million ways. One way is that his value as a run stopper (particularly when you look at his performance , who is currently on the roster, and other positions that need to be filled) makes him someone worth keeping. I’m glad our GM and head coach did enough due dillgence this year to improve the team and mask difficiencies enough to get us in a position for a winning season. I can only hope and trust that they do more of the same this coming off season. All that said, focus has got to be on this next game. We HAVE to execute in all three phases and get the win, or it’s a step not taken. Go Bucs!
December 30th, 2016 at 12:03 pm
One million percent agree. We have to stop over-paying part-time players. I like him, but would we really miss him long term?
December 30th, 2016 at 12:13 pm
Frankly, I never saw the upside to Gholston. He may have been among the best on the team at his position…but that’s a pretty low standard.
When it comes to dline, I care about only three things: Sacks, Run Stopping and low penalties.
Gholston is only average (at best) at the first two.
December 30th, 2016 at 12:14 pm
Gholston is good depth…nothing more.
If the Bucs let him go and he produces elsewhere, then it just proves he didn’t care enough to play well for the Bucs.
December 30th, 2016 at 12:16 pm
We need Edge Rushers who can put the heat on Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Drew Brees if we’re going to win the NFC South. We are desperate for Pass Rushers not Run-Stoppers. Teams are not going to run the ball 50 times a game, this isn’t 1920. Teams are throwing the ball 50 times a game, 4,000-5,000 a season.
December 30th, 2016 at 12:19 pm
Funny its like people didnt watch the past saints game when theyre run game was gashing us for 6+ ypc. Im sure gholston had nothing to do with us being good against the run the past idk 4+ years. Dumb move if they release him i said the same about bennett 2. We finally hit on a 4th rounder that is one of the best in the nfl at stopping the run and you just want to release him bec he doesnt get 10+ sacks. I believe he was always one of our top dlinemen in pressures also. But o well bucs gonna bucs.
December 30th, 2016 at 12:27 pm
@Knucknbuc – I think you’re missing the point. No one is doubting his value. He’s definitely good against the run and I think everyone would love to keep him. What is being debated is whether he is worth having the huge payday that it sounds like he wants. Everyone is onboard with paying him what he’s worth. It’s whether what he’s worth and what he wants are in the same ball park that remains to be seen.
December 30th, 2016 at 12:33 pm
guys like Ayers (when healthy) and Grimes had solid seasons, but at their age you can’t just assume they will come back the following year just as effective. Between that and the fact that they know he’ll be around for a while, i assume they will find a way to work him in more than they already do.
December 30th, 2016 at 12:35 pm
If he comes back for 6 million a year for 4 years or so I would say he’s worth it. Any more than no. We need pass rushers and we need another DT in all homesty. Spence is nothing special let him walk unless he’s really cheap and go sign a big hog like POE or some how get Sheldon Richardson. Maybe short? We missed out on pilfering Norman but maybe we can steal their DT. We have failed in the past on free agents because we go after one year wonders , Johnson and Collins. Last year if say we hot but there all aging. We missed on josh Norman, Jenkins, snack Harrison, all big money guys but guys who had multiple seasons being productive. The GIANtS did it right last year and BRONCOs did it right a few years ago. That’s why I’m saying throw big money at eric berry if he reaches the market, or POE, or Richardson.
December 30th, 2016 at 12:35 pm
One of the reasons I’m not totally sold on MSmith is he didn’t either game plan or design plays that fully utilized the talents of some of the D Boyz. Case in point: there should have been a LOT more blitzes called for both LVD and the Kwonster! Smith know the NFC South is a QB’s showcase. Look at Matty Ice. Brees knew he could pick our D apart cos of the way Smith backed off the heavy blitzing in most of our games. Lawd, Coach Dungy set the LBackers loose with the blitzing. Everyone got in the act including the DBs. It definitely eases the pressure on the DL. This sure ain’t theoretical physics here.
December 30th, 2016 at 12:38 pm
I agree with Joe’s assessment but I tend to give another factor a lot of consideration. Kind of like a player giving a hometown discount in FA I think teams can give hometown boosts to players we’ve seen perform for several years.
We know what we have with Gholston. He has a little upside left but even if he doesn’t improve a lot he’s a solid DL with versatility he can play inside as well as out and he apparently has mixed well in our team chemistry.
I’d rather overpay a bit (how much of course is the question) for a tried and true Buc than take a risk with an FA who worked well on another team…although if that well why are the letting him go.
I would make signing Gholson a priority. My main concern about his salary would not be the cap but what effect it might have on the expectations of other players. Got to keep it reasonable. If some team tosses a bozo crazy offer at him we’ll just have to cry in our beer and let him walk.
December 30th, 2016 at 12:48 pm
this money game pisses me off…if it were pre salary cap era, it would be a certainty he stays here and keep continuity and depth…plus he’s a Buc draft choice….how many Bucs picks have been around for a 2nd contract lately? DEPTH is something not to be ignored in this day and age…Injuries on the rise…He’s a keeper…He can play tackle too…end of rant
December 30th, 2016 at 12:48 pm
Michael Bennett 2.0?
December 30th, 2016 at 1:24 pm
10.5 sacks over 4 seasons, and he’s making demands.
December 30th, 2016 at 1:40 pm
Michael Bennett has agreed to a 3 year extension with Seattle for 3 years, $ 31.5 million. That doesn’t look too good for Gholston.
December 30th, 2016 at 1:46 pm
I tend to come down on the side of Gholston. I too remember Michael Bennett. Teams Habitually attempt to establish the run and that is his strong suit. Noah Spence and Ayers and hopefully a couple of offseason acquisitions are Pass rushers. I agree that we don’t want to overpay him, but we have the highest salary cap in the NFL so wheres the down side to giving him a few extra Bucks. He is home grown and he has worked hard in a rotational and starting role. He is one of those players that everyone has an opinion on and for the most part everyone is right.
December 30th, 2016 at 2:25 pm
Get a real good dt that can stop the run and get up the middle.
December 30th, 2016 at 3:21 pm
not more than 4 mil a year
December 30th, 2016 at 3:33 pm
@Bonzai … “If the Bucs let him go and he produces elsewhere, then it just proves he didn’t care enough to play well for the Bucs.” Seriously Bonzai? I can’t believe that anyone would question that Will Gholston has laid it all on the line for the Bucs every game he’s played in. Constantly gave 100% while he was banged up game after game. Over the past 3 years Will has averaged 15 games per season, with 37 tackles plus 16 assists per season. Granted he’s only averaged 3 sacks per season, but defensive scheme, and his role in it, plays a big part in that. Not saying he should get $10 mil a year for sure, but he’s an incredibly valuable member of that DLine and needs to be paid a decent wage for his contributions.
By the way, StPete and Miko … well said.
December 30th, 2016 at 4:51 pm
If you aren’t signing these types of players prior to the end of their first contract you are never going to build through the draft. You have to identify talent and keep it or you can’t build through the draft !! The draft crap talk is just that , a bag of crap !!! If you aren’t resigning two drafted players prior to contract expiration on avg every year you can’t build through the draft.
December 30th, 2016 at 5:35 pm
With more development from Spence, we should keep Gholston even if he demands more. Depth is huge, look at us this year with tour injuries, who is to say we won’t lose another D-Line man in camp or OTAs. Sign an underrated FA, pick a DE in the draft, as Licht has found some steals in the past. Also perhaps, bringing in a raw talent like Jabaal Shepard from NE could be a nice signature my with all of our cap room. In addition, another playmaker at OLB could be key. The truth is Daryl Smith is fading and while Bond (6th rounder last year) is developing a bridge player at the position could be a very nice addition to our D. GO Bucs!
December 30th, 2016 at 5:36 pm
With more development from Spence, we should keep Gholston even if he demands more. Depth is huge, look at us this year with tour injuries, who is to say we won’t lose another D-Line man in camp or OTAs. Also perhaps, bringing in a raw talent like Jabaal Shepard from NE could be a nice signature my with all of our cap room. In addition, another playmaker at OLB could be key. The truth is Daryl Smith is fading and while Bond (6th rounder last year) is developing a bridge player at the position could be a very nice addition to our D. GO Bucs!kk
December 30th, 2016 at 6:07 pm
50 tackles, 3 sacks, 9 QB hits, 8 QB pressures and 1 forced fumble = $3.9M per year.
4 years – $15.6M with about $6M guaranteed in the 1st 2 years is right in the range of what a “serious” offer from the Bucs should be.
If Gholson can get another team to pay him more than $5M per – then God Bless and Good Luck….
December 30th, 2016 at 6:10 pm
That’s just it, he isnt a pass rusher. The top paid DEs are pass rushers. Not a lot of value in being a run stuffer. If he had 8 sacks this season he would probably be looking at 10 mil+ per year. As it is the market will be good to gholston, but not as good as pass rusher would get. I dont think the bucs pay gholston. I think they put their eggs into the noah spence basket and hope he becomes a nice 3 down DE. But we do need that third guy to back up and eventually replace Ayers. I dont think gholstons skill set is worth a 10 mil a year pay day. If he had 10 sacks, no brainer. But not when he is limited and a rotational guy only.
December 30th, 2016 at 9:31 pm
Why is it we are relying on W Gholston to be our dominant run stuffer when we have a $100 million DT? SMH
December 30th, 2016 at 11:43 pm
Sheards current contract seems like a good fit for Gholston although I would like for us to lock Gholston up in a five year contract.
December 30th, 2016 at 11:56 pm
He just might be leading the team in tackles from D line.