Playoff Chances
November 22nd, 2016
Playoffs?
Yes, when a team is 5-5 and a game out of first place the week of Thanksgiving, playoff talk is real.
However, do the Bucs, who haven’t had a winning record since beating the Dixie Chicks in Atlanta to begin the season, have a realistic shot? Bill Barnwell of BSPN examines.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5)
Playoff odds: 10.1 percent
The Bucs pulled off a brave upset in beating the Chiefs in Kansas City, a feat given that the Chiefs were 16-4 at home over the past three seasons heading into Sunday. … Tampa Bay won the turnover battle 2-1, including a critical Chris Conte pick of Alex Smith in the end zone, went 11-for-16 on third down, and set up its kicker for easy field goals, with Roberto Aguayo going 4-for-4 on kicks that went an average distance of 32.5 yards.
The problem is that the Bucs simply have a high degree of difficulty to crash the postseason. They don’t have many easy games left: They still face the Seahawks and Cowboys, have two games against the Saints, and a trip to San Diego. Their easiest matchup might actually be their opponents in Week 17.
On paper, Joe wouldn’t be shocked if the Bucs finish the season 4-2. On paper.
Joe cannot reasonably expect the Bucs to beat Seattle or Dallas. The Saints? Sure, Drew Brees can put up points but the Saints defense is atrocious. San Diego? Eh, an OK team. If the Bucs can travel to Kansas City in that environment against a much better team and beat the Chiefs, why not beat the Chargers on the road? Carolina at home to close the regular season? Winnable.
The problem is, would four more wins be enough?
November 22nd, 2016 at 5:09 am
I would like to win at least 3 more games 8-8 with this schedule would be nice.
November 22nd, 2016 at 5:37 am
just imagine if we had won those two games at home against the rams and raiders…..sigh
November 22nd, 2016 at 5:37 am
With all due respect lets pump the breaks on the playoff talk. We haven’t proven to be consistent week in/week out just yet. That said, I was really impressed with Sundays win. Jameis was sharp, the o-line did a great job of pass protecting, the receivers caught everything thrown thier way, and the defense seems to be coming together. We’re a pretty tuff team to beat when we’re not beating ourselves. Hopefully what we’ve seen the last few weeks is a sign of things to come. From here on out every game is the Super Bowl for us. Let’s go Bucs!
November 22nd, 2016 at 6:02 am
If the Bucs beat Seattle – THEN we can start talking about playoff chances
November 22nd, 2016 at 6:03 am
The problem is there just isn’t a lot of room for error and we have to be really good down the stretch. Even if we beat Seattle we still have 3 division games, Dallas in Dallas, and a very dangerous San Diego team. We have a tough road ahead of us starting with Sunday. We need to treat every game like a playoff game because essentially that’s what it is for us. Especially considering Atlanta has a remaining schedule with lots of weak teams
November 22nd, 2016 at 6:11 am
Also if we are going to lose any of those games I’d rather it be the chargers. They aren’t in our division or conference and Atlanta already lost to them so it won’t weigh as much in the tie breaker procedure
November 22nd, 2016 at 6:11 am
I could see the Bucs splitting with the Saints, beating the Chargers and beating the Panthers to finish at 8-8. But with a bad defense and no margin for error the Bucs will be on the couch in January thinking what if we beat the Rams and Raiders at home…
November 22nd, 2016 at 6:25 am
8-8 would be great
Then go into the Draft and get a nasty DT and a WR
November 22nd, 2016 at 6:26 am
Tampa Tony I agree. Those 2 games are going to hurt pretty bad. One thing we got going is Atlanta has 4 games in a row against opponents we already played so maybe it can even itself out. Our only other chance is if Washington or giants go on a losing streak since there are 3 NFC east teams holding playoff spots at the moment
November 22nd, 2016 at 6:30 am
Bucsfan4life-not saying there is no chance just saying the margin for error is slim and hoping for so many teams to lose is a long shot. But at least the Bucs are competitive and not in draft mode right now
November 22nd, 2016 at 6:33 am
Look I’m pretty excited about this win. But honestly, I see them winning two games down the stretch: losses to Seattle, Dallas, split with Carolina and New Orleans. Seeing what has happened to the Bucs against good QBs, I have to go with Phillip Rivers.
November 22nd, 2016 at 6:35 am
Tampa Tony I actually agree with u about margin of error. I said that same thing a few posts before u. They could go 4-2 over next 6 games which is pretty good and still miss playoffs.
November 22nd, 2016 at 6:40 am
As the days go by, the Bucs get healthier on offense and defense. These teams haven’t seen us at full strength. Especially on offense we are playing better all the time.
November 22nd, 2016 at 6:46 am
@OneBuc55 … “With all due respect lets pump the breaks on the playoff talk. We haven’t proven to be consistent week in/week out just yet.” Yea verily … consistency is the name of the game. It’s awesome that the Bucs won these last 2 games, but neither the Bears nor the Chiefs possess offenses that’ll set the world on fire. Our defense played well against both teams, but were far from perfect. Our run defense is normally a strength, but not this year … it should be a major concern. DLine really didn’t put that much pressure on Smith last game (but did great against Cutler I thought). Defending the short passing game (especially over the middle) hasn’t been all that fantastic either.
What’s saved our bacon is that Bucs’ offense has controlled the clock (over 35 mins TOP each of last 2 games) AND we’ve won the turnover battle. Jameis has been awesome in my opinion (pretty close to perfect actually). All I’m saying is that we need to slow down the talk of playoffs and like Dirk Koetter said, focus on the next game … one at a time.
November 22nd, 2016 at 6:49 am
Bucsfan4life- sorry thats what I get for replying before my coffee.
November 22nd, 2016 at 6:51 am
The most fun thing about beating KC is it does put us in the playoff conversation. We have a heck of a schedule left to play but when we limit turn overs and penalties we can compete with anyone, particularly when healthy. If we could knock off either Seattle or Dallas, that means we can play with the best in the NFC. That would be scary indeed.
November 22nd, 2016 at 7:02 am
The problem this week is Seattle is like our kryptonite. Let’s face it we aren’t very good in coverage with a traditional drop back passer when he is just going through his progressions. Now we are going to ask our db’s and safeties to stay with the receivers when Wilson extends plays that’s what scares me then on the flip side our other weakness is turnovers. When they happen we lose and playing this defense has me worried on that end too. Our d line needs to find some way to get pressure then we need a spy on Wilson. Preferably switching who is spying. I just don’t trust our safeties at all.
November 22nd, 2016 at 7:31 am
Playoffs would be nice, very nice. But if I can watch Nov & Dec games and be excited about our level of play and excited for next season bc of our level of play and NOT because of who we drafted, man, that would be AWESOME!
Its been years…
November 22nd, 2016 at 7:35 am
Need to win the division in order to make the playoffs with the NFC East so strong. 10% sounds about right.
November 22nd, 2016 at 7:38 am
Would need a quality win against either Seattle or Dallas and sweep the remaining 3 division games to have a prayer. Prayer is a waste of time.
November 22nd, 2016 at 7:56 am
I feel best case sinario is a sweep of the saints, a win at sd, and get a team in carolina that has packed it in. Thats 9-7 and hope the tie breaker works out.
November 22nd, 2016 at 8:01 am
I like the way you think Mike
November 22nd, 2016 at 8:09 am
id be more worried about panthers trying to play spoiler than packing it up depending on how things have went leading up to that point. im sure they would love to be in position to really stick it to us
November 22nd, 2016 at 8:18 am
They gave the saints and panthers better chances at 4-6. Gota split the next 2 n def beat the saints down twice to have a shot. Dont think any nfc south team is gona get a wild card. Gota win the division. One game back right now is pretty amazing considering how bad they played in some games. Cmon bucs pass up those dixie chicks
November 22nd, 2016 at 8:19 am
I know this team is not very talented and probably wouldn’t make a dent in the playoffs but why all this talk about stop the playoff talk? After 10+ years of not making the playoffs and being pretty much irrelevant in the NFL i would definitely take a first round playoff exit over not making it at all. Look at it this way. WE ALL KNOW this team has ZERO DEPTH and a few quitters on the team and we are still winning games against quality teams. The main thing i have enjoyed seeing this year is the growth of the team. You can tell the loser mentality is dwindling out of One Buc Place. Lets keep it going and shock the world again and pull out a W at home against the Seahawks now that will be a great accomplishment for this sub-par team. We are on the way up folks!!! lets enjoy it
November 22nd, 2016 at 8:51 am
Count me into the “pump the brakes” category. We have yet to show any consistency, and that’s my hang-up with thoughts of a playoff run.
Also, we have shown improvement in 2 games. Which team are we?
@Harry- I’m with you on that one! Just seeing a better product and not worrying about the draft is a treat to me.
November 22nd, 2016 at 10:40 am
i feel like the bucs could squeeze out an unlikely victory over Dallas or Seattle, but they’re almost certain to drop a game people assume they should win, like the game at San Diego or one of the Saints games
November 22nd, 2016 at 10:53 am
Jim Mora said it best, PLAYOFF’S!, you wanta talk about PLAYOFF’S!!! HEHEHE