Weird Stats
October 7th, 2016
What is supposed to work against Jameis doesn’t, and what is not supposed to work against Jameis does.
Joe is not much of a data guy, but sometimes it is interesting.
Much of the nonsense, for example, that the PFF crowd shats out is junk science. That doesn’t mean all stats are bad.
Take the numbers Jenna Laine dug up. The ESPN correspondent who covers the Bucs uncovered really wild data of America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston.
No one, Laine found, has been blitzed more than Jameis this year. Defenses are throwing the kitchen sink at him. Problem is, it’s not working on Jameis.
Interestingly, Winston has been the league’s best under duress this season with a quarterback rating of 88.3 when pressured, ahead of the Oakland Raiders’ Derek Carr at 82.3. Winston has thrown five touchdowns and no interceptions in those situations. Dropping back against the blitz, he has a rating of 94.0 — fourth best in the league — with three touchdowns and one interception.
But here is where the weird crap comes in. When Jameis has time to throw, he morphs into Josh Freeman, again, from Laine.
When he’s not being pressured or blitzed, he has a rating of 49.0 — 29th in the league — with three touchdowns and eight interceptions. The numbers suggest it’s when Winston is not being pressured or blitzed that he runs into trouble. It also could be something opponents are picking up on.
That’s just odd.
Joe has no way of figuring that out. Jameis was asked about that yesterday and he gave a non-answer saying he just had to protect the football.
Oh, kay!
Feel free to click on the link above. A lot of interesting stuff on what Jameis does when he’s facing all sorts of different formations.
October 7th, 2016 at 8:18 am
It’s not that surprising to me. When #3 gets blitzed he immediately realizes he HAS to get rid of the ball or throw it away.
When he sets up in the pocket and has tons of time it seems that’s when things get scary. That’s when his never say die gene kicks in and he’s seems hell bent on making a play whether it’s there or not.
Eventually this will pay off…once #3 realizes that the level of talent in the NFL is light years ahead of the NCAA. In college there may have been ONE NFL quality DB or LB on the field…in the NFL the D is loaded with great athletes.
Passes that were open in the NCAA and seem open in the NFL just aren’t. The DB’s have such amazing closing speed, they lay traps…it’s all just part of #3’s education. When he finally gets it he’s going to be terrific! Until he gets it he’s going to continue to turn the ball over and fans will continue to say stupid stuff like fire Koetter, dump #3.
The key word this season is patience! Although I understand frustration.
October 7th, 2016 at 8:40 am
Perfect example of Jameis having NO weapons!! Receivers are only getting open when less guy are in coverage cus the defense is blitzing
October 7th, 2016 at 8:43 am
Has trouble reading defenses it seems or seeing defenders. Probably a lot more nuance to that though. The teams that didn’t blitz, didn’t need to. Got good pressure and JW threw it into places with a lot of defenders. He was blitzed a lot by Atlanta but didn’t do any good since their defense had a bad day overall. That ‘s my read anyway. Could be wrong.
October 7th, 2016 at 8:44 am
Blitz = fewer defenders in coverage. The result is open receivers, which also results when JW3 extends plays and leaves the pocket, which he tends to do to avoid pressure.
No blitz = more defenders in coverage, less separation from the receivers, and fewer passing lanes. The remedy for this is okay action, but that requires a running threat. Add this to the fact that JW3 is forcing the issue, and you get INTs.
Good news is that diagnosis and pressure do not appear to be issues for our 22 year old QB – and that is rare I would think. The other good news is that a running game and a little bit more depth at the receiver position should help. Finally, the good news is that JW 3 is still learning. Patience, patience, patience.
October 7th, 2016 at 8:47 am
Could it be when they drop into coverage our receivers not named Mike aren’t getting separation? Meanwhile, Jameis is trying to make plays because he feels he has time so he forces it?
October 7th, 2016 at 8:59 am
She also made the point that the stats show when teams drop 4 or more guys into coverage during those non-blitz plays is when he seems to struggle. The cause of that could be a lot of diiferent reasons and I won’t go into all of the possibilities but one thing jumps out in my mind is if a team can get pressure on the QB without blitzing and still drop 4 or more into coverage that makes for some small windows to throw into. Throw in the fact that Mike Evans is the only deep threat on the team and can either be doubled or shadowed by the teams top CB (Peterson type guys) the other DB’s can sit on routes and react once the QB throws.
October 7th, 2016 at 9:00 am
Bculaw
You are right. With more in coverage Jameis is holding onto the ball and trying to force throws into coverage. What has been disturbing to me this season is his lack of running with the ball. We like to run these slow developing deeper routes. Those take coverage into deeper drops, if he breaks the d line he should be able to pick up chunks of yards. I know he is not Cam Newton, but Brady and Rodgers have been killing teams with timely scrambles for years. It’s an important part of an offense to keep defenses honest.
October 7th, 2016 at 9:02 am
The stat is skewed. Many of those blitzes end up in sacks, so he doesn’t get to throw the ball.
The truth is he is terrible right now…but I suspected he would be in his second year. He should start improving as the year goes on. Baby steps.
I made a Brett Favre comparison the other day, and I think that’s what we’re looking at.
I mean…Jameis is his own man, but the comparisons are closer than he is to Big Ben…who every single Bucs QB gets compared to for some reason.
October 7th, 2016 at 9:05 am
@Conte Piscateli
The lack of running has bothered me as well, but I suspect it is a part of his development and Koetter has insisted he try not to run.
Really, all of this will end up helping him in the long run. He’ll eventually learn to overcome his mistakes. And at the same time, the offensive line will gradually improve.
I wish Sweezy would heal up and get to play. I’m not overly confident he’ll be as good as advertised, but at this point we need to try anything on the oline.
October 7th, 2016 at 9:12 am
Duh…..he has more open receivers when blitzed……and, Jameis is inaccurate, so when a receiver is covered…..interceptions go up.
Jameis has “Testeverdeitus”……thinks he has the talent to squeeze in every pass…..fortunately, he is young and can recover from it.
October 7th, 2016 at 9:12 am
Coaches always try to coach the running out of running QBs but it’s a weapon they need to keep in the arsenal. I feel like they stressed it so much he is thinking about not running. Much like telling QBs not to force passes, then they get so gun shy they won’t even take the open throws downfield because they are so afraid of risk.
October 7th, 2016 at 9:13 am
@Jack Burton Mercer:
Excellent and spot-on analysis in my opinion. JW3, like most QBs, did great against Atlanta, because they are ranked 30th overall defensively, 31st against the pass, 29th in scoring, and they allow an average QBR against them of 104.8!
Against the good defenses, JW3 has not only struggled, but has been abysmal at times. Here is a blast from the past:
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tickrdr Says:
July 25th, 2016 at 2:04 pm
JW3 should improve from year one to year two, but I expect his overall performance to be LESS this year, since the likely level of competition should be much greater.
Last year Jameis and the Bucs played only four games total against defensive teams ranked in the top 12 by overall game stats on NFL.com. Those opponents included two games against the Panthers (ranked 6th overall), and one each against the Titans and Texans. His statistical performance in those games:
Carolina 1st game: 26 of 43 for 287 yds, 2 TDs, and 4 INTs. QBR 57.
Carolina 2nd game: 29 of 47 for 325 yds, 0 TDs, and 2 INTs. QBR 64.6
Tennessee: 16 of 33 for 210 yds, 2 TDs, and 2 INTs. QBR 64.
Houston: 17 of 36 for 261 yds, 1 TD, and 1 INT. QBR 59.3
Totals = 88 of 159 for 1083 yds, 5 TDs, and 9 INTs. In those four games the Bucs offense scored a total of 56 points = 14 ppg, and much of that came during so-called “garbage time”.
I know and fully acknowledge that the rankings change from year to year, but this year’s schedule has 6 games against defenses that were ranked in the top 7 last year, doesn’t include games against most of the terrible defenses like PHA, NYG, WASH, IND, and JAX were this year. Frankly, I would like to know which teams you all think we’re going to beat for those ten wins many of you are predicting.
tickrdr
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I will be glad to update those stats to include the games against Arizona and Denver, but I think we have all seen those results.
tickrdr
October 7th, 2016 at 9:26 am
I agree Harlow
October 7th, 2016 at 9:29 am
Bonzai..I’ve been saying Brett Favre for a very long time now. Fans are just going to have to deal with the good and the bad. I personally feel there’s going to be much more good than bad. The fans that can’t deal with it all, I understand them and get where they’re coming from to a point. There’s LOT’S of frustration pent up with many of us. I don’t think most of it belongs laid at the feet of any one person in the org. We’ve been complaining for years.
It’s Bruce Allen’s fault.
It’s Gruden’s fault.
It’s Dom’s fault.
It’s Raheem’s fault.
It’s Freeman’s fault.
It’s Schiano’s fault.
It’s the Glazers fault.
It’s Lovie’s fault.
It’s Leslie Frazier’s fault.
Now of course it’s Koetter or Licht’s fault or perhaps even Winston’s fault.
We just keep re-inventing new people to blame, but we still suck. Was it Winston or Koetter’s fault that the Bucs sucked in say 2013?
I think it really does come down to us really thick skinned Buc’s fan. We really DO have to embrace the suck like I’ve been quoted in the book “The Yucks” as saying. You either embrace it, deal with it, and move on, or truly pack your bags and leave.
Oh and as far as Winton’s stats. All I care about is wins and losses. Always have, always will. Embrace the suck and move on.
October 7th, 2016 at 9:33 am
kobe wants to know jenna’s “stats” …hopefully not weird
October 7th, 2016 at 9:34 am
TBBF…it’s my opinion that Vinny suffered from Culverhousitis so I’m having a hard time seeing the connection. I get what you mean though, but it was a different time in a different era. People think Winston has no weapons? Compare that to Vinny’s years. Vinny also took a beating at the hands of defensive lineman too. JW does try to force the ball in tight places. Do I see that ever letting up? You’re hopeful, but I really don’t know yet.
October 7th, 2016 at 9:38 am
Where is Louis Murphy???
October 7th, 2016 at 10:00 am
We have recievers that can’t get separation or don’t know how to find the holes in defenses. Winstons delivery also has a part in this and the fact that he’s a 2nd year player. He should be what, a senior in college right now?
It’s a team sport, there’s more to it than just a qb.
October 7th, 2016 at 10:34 am
When he’s blitzed and recognises it. It calls for a 3 step drop and a quick first read throw. Bubble screen, quick slant. The easiest throw for a QB to make. With a 3 step drop setting his feet is easy. Its when he has to move in the pocket. Thats where things get ugly. He seems to be a little knock knee’d. His footwork is atrocious. Do you people not see how bad he looks. He’s just clumsy looking. Then watch Wentz polar opposite. He is smooth and loose. If you haven’t clued in by know. #3 is in the coaches dog house. We hung in with Freeman for 5 years. Hoping he could fix his bad footwork and Inaccuracy. If #3 finishes the year like the first quarter.They will Draft some completion. He’ll start next season,but he might not finish it.
October 7th, 2016 at 11:02 am
Very simple. When a team blitzes, and the O-Line holds up, that means there are one on one matchups or tragets running free with no coverage. Just a quick simple throw to your hot receiveer. Because the Bucs lack good pass catching options, sans Evans, that is why JW struggles when teams do not blitz. They cover our slow plodding receivers and a normal pass rush gets to JW. JW forced to hold on to the ball because no one is open.
October 7th, 2016 at 11:03 am
One game last year. The Philly game. Where he had 5TDS. Made his rookie season v good. Philly layed an egg like most every team does a couple times a season. Couple that with the v weak schedule. Alot of garbage time stats. Where the opponent is up big and in a prevent defence. Prescott,Wentz are learning too. While winning games and not throwing picks.90% of you unrealists still believed in Freeman. Going into that 5th season. The Mike Glennon mob is a derogatory term. Made by the Freeman lovers. Well the Freeman lovers were wrong. Winston is Freeman but you guys will make excuse after excuse. Just like you did with Freeman.
October 7th, 2016 at 11:04 am
I know everyone is down on VJax and the inability of our receivers to get separation. Please watch the replay of the first interception in the Denver game, especially if you have GamePass and can see the endzone shot on Coach’s view. I invite everyone to come back and tell me that VJ83 does not pass right in front of JW3 ………..WIDE OPEN……….. before he throws in front of the receiver he must have been “locked onto”. I think some of Jameis’ problems is what I refer to as “Rashad Greene syndrome”. Watch Gruden’s QB Camp with Jameis to see what that means.
tickrdr
October 7th, 2016 at 11:12 am
All fine and dandy but Poor Glennon would have taken a bigger beating against Denver and most of us know that.
We’re married to Winston now…and Glennon, Glennon…okay…come on Glennon?
October 7th, 2016 at 11:25 am
@Poor Glennon:
In 2015, Philadelphia had the 30th ranked defense by game stats, 28th against the pass, 28th in scoring, and allowed an average QBR of 92.8!
In 2015, Jameis and the Bucs offense played 5 games against the five worst teams defensively(ranked by game stats @ NFL.com): Wash (28th), Pha (30th), NO (31st)(twice), and NYG (32nd).
All of the QBR’s allowed by those teams were even worse than that 92.8 by Pha, topped by NO allowing a QBR of 116.2 to opposing QBs. Not exactly like playing the Citadel while at FSU, but similar.
tickrdr
PS: Those same teams were often not very good against the run either.
October 7th, 2016 at 11:32 am
For comparison sake, Josh McCown (before he starred for the 2014 Bucs) had a 13 TD/ 1 INT ratio for the Bears, in part because he threw 6 TDs vs Minnesota and Dallas;…………………….. the 31st and 32nd ranked defenses in 2013.
tickrdr
October 7th, 2016 at 11:45 am
We drafted a QB that we knew would throw alot of pics. In a league where turnovers are killer. He was suppose to make enough plays to counteract his pics. Then score in the clutch because he’s a winner. What were we thinking.
October 7th, 2016 at 11:46 am
Tick
Second one you’ve mention Rasheed Greene syndrome. What is that? I’m too lazy to look it up?
October 7th, 2016 at 11:47 am
I say be thankful mofos bc we could have Marcus mariota as our qb.
October 7th, 2016 at 12:15 pm
@DB55:
I’m flattered that you read my long posts. This is just my opinion, and something I coined. It means that when Jameis goes through his progressions, they are often SINGULAR, and not plural i.e. Jameis locks into his primary receiver(i.e. one read) and that’s where the pass is going. During the Gruden QB Camp show with Jameis, Jon Gruden got under his skin a little bit by showing play after play where Jameis locked onto Rashad Greene, and that’s where he threw it come hell or ….double coverage. So, I invite you all to watch the replay of that first interception against Denver. You will see two receivers cross left to right in front of JW3. First VJax, who is wide open, but ignored. I honestly don’t think he ever saw Jackson. Then, Jameis throws in front of Adam Humphries (leads him too much) and gets picked. DB55, I would like to know what you think after watching the replay.
tickrdr
October 7th, 2016 at 12:20 pm
@DB55,
It’s being locked on to one receiver only.
Gruden called him out on it, as being a primary reason for his interceptions.
October 7th, 2016 at 12:35 pm
@poorGlennon,
I can’t tell if your a troll or a raging idiot. To say that Winston is Josh Freeman is the most ridiculous thing I’ve heard. Freeman was a clueless head case that couldn’t lead his team. Winston on the other hand is a natural leader that wants to win. We are witnessing the progression of a 22 y/o, 2nd year qb. Please do us a favor and leave this site your not smart enough to post.
October 7th, 2016 at 1:57 pm
Tick
It’s a true story. I thought he was late to vjax so went to hump but overthrew it. Even when he tries to fake the secondary by looking one way he always has his eyes locked on his primary WR. It’s kinda funny cuz his eyes are looking left and his head is pointing right.
Two fold, first I think he needs glasses or contacts and second he need better protection. The kid is shook. You take 16 hits a game and tell me how safe you feel back there.
October 7th, 2016 at 2:20 pm
Has yet to recover from knee surgery.
October 7th, 2016 at 3:56 pm
This is like putting lipstick on a pig. Who cares if he is #1 in the league under pressure when we are 1-3, fixing to be 1-4? He could be leading in ALL of the stats but if we are NOT winning it doesn’t matter. Someone said it could be worse, we could have Mariotta. Well, it could ALSO be better, we could have had more draft picks instead of picking either of them. We already had a QB with game experience who has put up numbers better than Winston. All we ever want to do is run another person out of town for NOT living up to our expectations. Glennon NEVER really got a chance to show what he could do.
He ONLY got a chance when it was too late, NOT getting the offseason work in with the first-string offense. And, he still managed to do pretty good, his stats are better than JW’s. We wasted 2 years with him just to waste another two with a different QB? ONLY IN TAMPA! This team is DOOMED by coaches that come and go in 2 year spurts when it is the players that NEED to go. How can we EVER build a team when there is NO stability anywhere? I hope Jameis gets MORE accurate soon because otherwise we will need to start ALL over again with another QB and wait for him to develop too. Go BUCS!