Bucs Playoff Chances Grim
October 5th, 2016
Good chance to have weekends off in January.
Leave it to numberscrunchers to crunch numbers to come up with a playoff formula. And for the Bucs, let’s just say they have a slightly better chance of making the playoffs than Myron Lewis does of playing in another NFL game.
Based on a number of factors and game projections using the past four games as trends, your Buccaneers have a 10.6 percent chance of playing meaningful football in January, per The Football Outsiders crew.
(Joe read about a sentence and a half of their playoff calculation formula and Joe got so bored he remembered he had briefs and socks to launder.)
Even “The Professor,” John Clayton of BSPN, doesn’t see much hope for the Bucs. Of all the 13 teams currently 1-3, Clayton has the Bucs with a worse chance than the Titans and Jags of making the playoffs.
If coach Dirk Koetter can stop the leaks on defense, the Bucs have a chance to get into the playoff picture. Next Monday’s road trip to Carolina is critical. If they can win that game, they have a winnable trip to San Francisco, followed by three home games. Those games could make or break their season. I think they have the look of a six- to seven-win team.
Sad thing is, the Bucs do not have a home field advantage. Haven’t had one since Chucky was coaching. Since Chucky was jettisoned from One Buc Palace, the Bucs are 17-39 in home games at the Den of Depression.
October 5th, 2016 at 5:29 am
6 or 7 win team? Where is the improvement over last year’s team! 12 games to play with 8 more games to win to show improvement over the last REGIME!
October 5th, 2016 at 5:46 am
I can’t believe someone (Joes) actually used the word “playoff team” in a post about the Buccaneers.
October 5th, 2016 at 6:37 am
With this killer schedule, I was saying 7-8 wins and that would be a good improvement. I think the Commish was right, this team needs to stockpile draft picks, they need more weapons for the QB. We had a hope of meaningful games in December, but man, it sure as hell does not look that way. But, they can turn things around.
October 5th, 2016 at 6:42 am
My guess is that to the numbers-crunchers, a team starting 1-3 playing like the Bucs have been playing probably aren’t SB material. Hmmm, everyone who expected the Bucs to win the SB this year please raise your hand. Maybe all of us who didn’t raise our hands could get a job with Football Outsiders.
October 5th, 2016 at 7:07 am
Good ole Lovie was always optimistic, we still have a chance to sweep the division ( yeah right ) which gives us a good chance to win the division.
Stay the course, Keep pounding the rock until it cracks, simple as that.
October 5th, 2016 at 7:20 am
Let’s save the Playoff talk for 2018.
October 5th, 2016 at 7:32 am
Hey Joe,
Stir it up and keep those ad cookies cooking. BTW, fingers are X’ed that all Bucs faithful on the east coast will just get skimmed by Matthew.
October 5th, 2016 at 7:43 am
Who cares… if you don’t win the SB then 31 teams are losers. Still need to add a lot of players before we even sniff being SB ready.
October 5th, 2016 at 8:03 am
Expect winning, especially with a real quarterback behind center. It’s not over until it’s over. I expect winning and expect to hold the free pass GM and our rookie HC accountable if they don’t win.
Go Bucs
October 5th, 2016 at 8:08 am
Fantastic.
Right on schedule for 8-8.
Buckle up everyone.
October 5th, 2016 at 8:29 am
Let’s focus on winning 1 game then go from there – we’ve got to figure out how to get a running game. Winston is not good enough to drop back 50x a game and win consistently – plus our wide receivers can’t get open in man coverage.
We have tons of holes on this team – we need to continue to develop Winston (need to be smart about it) get our 2nd round Kicker some confidence…treat this like a long preseason. GM needs to make magic and find some safeties…wide receivers.
I’d like to see more creativity in our game plans. Quick, short passes – get Winston some confidence and into a groove. Would rather run the ball well and play action off of that but I just don’t think we can do that without Martin and I’m not sure how healthy he’s going to be anyway.
October 5th, 2016 at 9:09 am
Playoffs?!?!?!?!
October 5th, 2016 at 9:18 am
The Rams loss was a killer….we win that game and we are exactly where most would have expected us to be.
Although unlikely, we could beat Carolina to get us back to 2-3 before the bye…..I doubt anyone would have expected better.
October 5th, 2016 at 9:27 am
I would love to Shepard play a little more, stretch the field and throw underneath, like Aaron said. It is becoming painful to have to keep calling for the same things year after year. Safeties, Speed Wide receivers, a back up running back (not a 3rd down back as our backup), Defensive Ends (though you cannot help injuries). Would love to not have Humphries return punts, he is really good but too vital on Offense, only a matter of time before he gets hurt (see Jack Smith).
October 5th, 2016 at 10:05 am
Playoffs????????
its going to be a challenge to win 5
Games
October 5th, 2016 at 10:20 am
A person will have a better chance of hitting the Powerball, than the Bucs has of reaching the playoffs. We may get there in 2025, it’s a longshot, but maybe.
October 5th, 2016 at 10:34 am
BigHog
Realize you’re a Lovie guy and that’s ok but your math is really really fuzzy.
Perhaps I’m slow on the uptake and you can fill me in.
According to your post……12 games to play with 8 more games to win to show improvement over the last REGIME!
If the Bucs win 8 more that would be 9 wins. Are you suggesting that Koetter should win in one season what it took Lovie two to accomplish?
My math suggests that if we win five more he matches Lovie’s mark of last year and triples Lovie’s first year performance. Am I off?
BTW….as I said last year before the season even started…Lovie’s seat getting a little warm after the two win year…that it’s not the W’s and L’s as much as how and when you get them.
IE…we were 6-10 last year. If we had lost the first four…won a couple more in the middle of the season and finished with four wins do we suppose that Lovie would still be here? Is there any doubt.
Koetter will be judged on how we perform after the bye…a manageable schedule and hopefully some injured players returning.
October 5th, 2016 at 10:44 am
@bighog…I agree….GO BUCS!!!!
October 5th, 2016 at 11:02 am
@stpete….dirk should win more than what lovie did in 2 years….he only has half the mess to clean up and so far he’s striking out….
dirk was here last year so players aren’t asked to learn something new….unlike lovie who had to go the entire season without an OC…lovie didn’t have a franchise qb….dirk has that….
lovie was canned because he and his so called friends weren’t going their job on the defensive side of the ball….dirk has hired his good friend mike smith to fix the defense but it has become even worse….that performance against the broncos was smoke in mirrors similar to the 10-6 season under rah….we have already experienced 2 blowouts under dirk(zona &Denver)….when you lose by 3 scores or more it is considered a blowout….
even licht, with the moves he has made in FA and the hiring of dirk suggest that this team should win at least 9-10games this year….
if you accept a losing season as a bench mark then your part of the losing culture….if dirk only manages to win 5-6 games this season with more talent than lovie ever had, then he proves to be just as incompetent as lovie…..GO BUCS!!!
October 5th, 2016 at 11:02 am
Stop talking playoffs. Hulk already break three tables, two doors and put fist through wall. Hulk cannot afford repairs. Need to get good before talk playoffs
October 5th, 2016 at 1:28 pm
Playoffs> Playoffs?..You kiddin me?? Looking at our Inability to beat even the beatables on our schedule and the way injuries keep piling up, Joe mentions Playoffs? But then again, The local Buc sportsmedia and fickled fans said with arrogant certainty,… Hoped, wished, thought, and prayed, this would be a much better team under Koetter and company. I’m waiting………………….
October 5th, 2016 at 1:37 pm
Wait, they have the look of a 6 or 7 win team? Oh, yeah, that’s right where Las Vegas pegged the over/under win total. Other than a few pundits looking for a sexy breakout pick to show how smart they are, almost everyone in the business was expecting 6 or 7 wins. So the sky isn’t falling, they are exactly who everyone thought they were.
October 5th, 2016 at 1:54 pm
A lot of people were crushing Lovie talking really bad about him I can’t help but wonder how we would look if he was still here I know we have given up more explosive plays on Defense in 4 games this year than all of last year that’s just one of the things that are killing us
October 5th, 2016 at 2:08 pm
Seriously with this playoffs talk?
October 5th, 2016 at 2:17 pm
Pretty much my exact response to this thread:
https://youtu.be/Qwq7BYOnDrM
October 5th, 2016 at 2:25 pm
Playoffs? We’re talking about playoffs? Playoffs? … Playoffs?
Seriously, let’s win a few games and see some stability from Jameis and some improvement from the defense before we worry about post season. We don’t have a team worthy of that yet.