Long Ball Troubles
September 19th, 2016
Jarring stats on deep ball throws.
If you haven’t had to chug Mylanta yet today, this will chase you to a nearby CVS.
Bucs fans grumble that America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston, can’t hit the broad side of a barn when throwing deep. Well, the tag-team duo of Sharon Katz & Jacob Nitzberg of BSPN have numbers that will have these same fans running to call WDAE-AM 620 to scream at producers and demand the return of Stuart McClown.
It seems yesterday, Jameis was no less than horrid at throwing deep.
After finishing near the top of the league in QBR in Week 1, Jameis Winston is toward the bottom in Week 2 thanks in large part to five turnovers. Winston’s four interceptions on Sunday cost his team an expected 4.6 points, with nearly half of it (minus-2.2) coming on his interception that was returned for a touchdown by Marcus Cooper.
As seen in the chart above, Winston struggled with the deep ball on Sunday, completing 2-of-13 passes traveling 15 or more yards downfield (15.4 percent), including two of his interceptions. His completion percentage on such passes was the second-lowest of the week among qualified quarterbacks, and his QBR of 9.3 on such throws was third-lowest.
Yes, if you click on the link above it has a pitch chart of sorts showing each completion and incompletion Jameis threw and where.
It’s ugly.
What is not detailed are drops. And, of course, the interception in the end zone on the first possession was actually on target. Problem was, Patrick Peterson, being the stud defensive back he is, played that pass perfectly, squeezing Mike Evans to gain position on the pass.
Of course, Joe has no idea what BSPN’s QBR is and really doesn’t care. Joe understands it is the four-letter’s version of quarterback ratings which, to be polite, is a terribly flawed statistic and in Joe’s eyes is the football version of baseball’s WAR nonsense.
September 19th, 2016 at 2:05 pm
In Jameis’s defense,
We don’t have any real deep threat receivers on our team. It’s kinda hard to connect on the deep ball, when your wide outs can’t get separation.
September 19th, 2016 at 2:08 pm
Thats what happens when you want Groots as your WRs… Give me quick twitch OBJ types over Groot any day.. However, CN has no problem hitting K. Benjamin. JW3 needs to be more accurate or you are looking at JF5 again.
September 19th, 2016 at 2:10 pm
(Ahem.)
September 19th, 2016 at 2:15 pm
I would let our Late Second Round Pick that we traded up for run those deep routes.
I am sure that any receiver that we took in the second round would have …
oh wait…
I Guess We Really needed a Kicker.
Just look how many points he scored for us yesterday
September 19th, 2016 at 2:16 pm
Outside of Evans who was covered by Peterson all day the other WR’s weren’t getting much separation and was man handled by press coverage. I’m surprised the game plan didn’t get the TE’s more involved.
September 19th, 2016 at 2:18 pm
I agree with Waterboy,
We totally neglected the TE’s yesterday.
September 19th, 2016 at 2:21 pm
We are truly getting into the absurd.
I know it’s a sports blog but has anybody here studied statistics?
The smaller the sample the more inaccurate.
And the old saying…there are lies…damn lies…and there are statistics.
The first pick was because Mike lost the ball in the lights. I accept this explanation because Mike would have outmuscled Petersen if he had a bead on the ball and at minimum making sure Petersen didn’t catch it.
And so we have TWO games. One great…one bad…small sample base from which to make any pronouncements. But hey it’s the sports world and so people gotta create viewers, listeners, and clicks and nuance and critical thinking are not desirable when it comes to achieving those goals.
Again…can somebody tell me after two games why a win elicits the correct response…hey it’s just ONE game…but a loss dictates an entire season and a QB’s skill set. He had a freaking bad game. If he has multiple bad games then we can start to worry.
September 19th, 2016 at 2:22 pm
I’ll disagree on that first pick. It looked behind Evans. Evans had Peterson on his back, which was perfect, and the ball was over his head. If JW throws it in front of Evans on the left, Touchdown.
September 19th, 2016 at 2:22 pm
“What is not detailed are drops.”
___________________
Is this a football site or a comedy site?
September 19th, 2016 at 2:24 pm
Long ball troubles my @$$. I’ve noticed a pattern over the last few years. Seems like we are the only fan base in the entire league that has to endure a nationally televised beat down game. That doesn’t make any of you scratch your heads??? I mean lovable isn’t around for us to place blame on now. So what is it???
September 19th, 2016 at 2:24 pm
Here is why “this Joe” is dubious of the lights being an issue.
Evans, presumably, participated in pregame warmups, no? If so, how come he didn’t realize there was a problem with the lights before kickoff? It’s not like some technician changed the angle of the lights while the Bucs were in the locker room just before the game started. Evans should have been able to figure this out in pregame warmups, and then gotten a tinted face shield from the equipment staff.
Funny, no one else Joe is aware of had issues with the lights. Joe is not saying Evans didn’t have problems with the lights. Just seems dubious.
September 19th, 2016 at 2:26 pm
Because some of us are old enough to have seen these kinds of performances from the Bucs before. Oh yeah, and Koetter had trouble with the team in the off season with a, ho hum kind of attitude. It showed yesterday, a lot of guys going through the motions of playing, and some that actually tried. It’s been ongoing since Raheem, it explains our culture and acceptance of losing.
September 19th, 2016 at 2:28 pm
Feel free to specifically point out where that chart is inaccurate.
September 19th, 2016 at 2:32 pm
@Joe
I accept your skepticism about the lights. But what other explanation is there?
Mike is a baller and a tough competitor. I find it hard to believe he “quit” on a play.
I guess he could have had a brain cramp. Petersen is a great athlete but so is Mike. And a good big man always beats a good smaller man. The play just seemed bizarre. Either ME gave up…hard for me to accept…or he lost the ball or at minimum his concentration.
September 19th, 2016 at 2:32 pm
He does have troubles. Right now he is who he is. An up and down WB with a world of potential.Stats are for losers , but right now, he’s the captain of a ship with a career w/l of 7-11and 28 career tds vs 22 career ints
September 19th, 2016 at 2:33 pm
Because Peterson wanted it more. It’s what separates the good from the great
September 19th, 2016 at 2:34 pm
Mediocre teams from playoff/Super Bowl teams.
September 19th, 2016 at 2:47 pm
Patrick Peterson, one of the best defensive backs in the NFL, made a fantastic play squeezing Evans off his route to gain position on the ball.
Sometimes, just sometimes, guys wearing a different colored jersey actually make plays. It’s not always the fault of a Bucs player when a play doesn’t go as planned.
Sometimes, you have to tip your cap to the other guy. They get paid too.
September 19th, 2016 at 2:50 pm
If you haven’t had to chug Mylanta yet today, this will chase you to a nearby CVS.
————–
This^^^^^^
I blame Vjax. If he don’t wanna play let Sheppard play. At least Sheppard will play hard to stay on the field. Vjax looks depressed frustrated disinterested and unaware.
September 19th, 2016 at 2:54 pm
I saw Peterson out run Evans for a ball thrown at least five yards past him, and Evans slowed down. I see no anger out there, no fire , it’s like they accepted they would lose. We still have no Sapps, Brooks, Lynchs, Rondes out there. Just a collection of guys, some with ability , some without.
September 19th, 2016 at 2:55 pm
Some, or yesterday quite a few, that are ok with losing, after all they get paid regardless of the w-l record.
September 19th, 2016 at 3:00 pm
OK Joe I can accept that explanation. The other guys get paid as well and Petersen is certainly one of the best if not the best DB in the league.
As a follow on however that still means #3’s pass was not bad…perhaps ill advised but even Arians pointed out…if you have a great young QB with a great young receiver then that’s what you do…go after the Petersens in the league.
September 19th, 2016 at 3:10 pm
@jackburton…I agree…if that pass is laid out in front of mike its an easy td….it was slightly behind which caused him him to slow down…with that being said I still put 60% of the blame on evans because he didn’t fight for the ball despite being 5 inches taller than pat p….
@stpetebucsfan….I could see your point….maybe mike slowed up because he lost the ball in the lights and pat p saw it the whole way….you maybe right
@db55… I agree…I don’t know what is going on with vjax but he needs to get his sh!t together along with dirk and smitty….GO BUCS!!!!
September 19th, 2016 at 3:39 pm
trade glennon to cleveland for josh gordon
September 19th, 2016 at 3:46 pm
The Bucs deep pass is like a wing and a prayer.
September 19th, 2016 at 6:25 pm
dusthty rhothdes
I second that notion
September 19th, 2016 at 7:58 pm
agree the pass was thrown to a spot that the DB had the best play on the ball.Pass should have been a back shoulder pass.Why because has overthrown half of the passes to Evans in the endzone.But the biggest reason is a much safer pass and Evans would have been in the best position to make the catch.
not sure what was going on with jameis ,but the o-line protected him pretty well.so I am not sure what was going on with Jameis,but the pressure will ramp up if teams see that he can be rattled.