The JoeBucsFan.com 2016 Season Prediction
September 6th, 2016
Joe believes the Buccaneers will be a better football team this season.
Absolutely!
But better doesn’t mean good, and Joe defines good as winning more games than you lose.
Simple as that, as Lovie Smith would say.
Lots of good things have aligned for Tampa Bay. Franchise quarterback. Check. Proven weapons for him. Check. Strong offensive line. Check. Balanced attack and battle-tested playcaller. Check.
The defense also should be improved just by virtue of the coordinator change to Mike Smith. Toss in Brent Grimes and Vernon Hargreaves, and that’s a special talent upgrade.
Joe likes defensive end Robert Ayers a bunch, but Joe remains skeptical of what kind of difference maker he really will be, just as Joe was when Ayers was signed.
After Ayers’ arrival, it was disheartening to hear Bucs players and Ronde Barber talk about how Tampa Bay needed a personality like Ayers’ in the locker room. Really? So there was no other fight-to-the death mentality infecting the team with the passion of a rabid dog?
Why the hell not?
Coaching Challenges
First-year head coaches have a learning curve. So do new coordinators radically changing a defensive mindset and scheme.
Joe can’t pretend those challenges won’t exist for Dirk Koetter and Mike Smith.
The difference between winning and losing is razor thin in the NFL, and a defense firing on the same page and playing fast and smart usually takes time. Not time like Lovie Smith’s three-year plan for defensive competence, but it’s reasonable to expect the defense will need at least five games.
First-year coaches also have been known to take their share of lumps when it comes to game and clock management. Joe doesn’t recall Koetter getting immunized against that. Mike Smith had a world of problems in that realm as his Atlanta tenure came crashing down.
Joe expects the Bucs to play .500 ball in the NFC South, a 3-3 record, just like in 2015.
Division games are tough, and the Bucs are in a tough division. Matt Ryan, Drew Brees and Cam Newton are excellent quarterbacks, and not one of their head coaches has a losing record. That latter fact is no an accident. Good coaching matters.
Depth Considerations
That leaves the non-division schedule:
at Cardinals, Sunday, Sept. 18, 4:05 p.m.
RAMS, Sunday, Sept. 25, 4:05 p.m.
BRONCOS, Sunday, Oct. 2, 4:05 p.m.
at San Francisco, Sunday, Oct. 23, 4:05 p.m.
RAIDERS, Sunday, Oct. 30, 1 p.m.
BEARS, Sunday, Nov. 13, 1 p.m.
at Kansas City, Sunday, Nov. 20, 1 p.m.
SEATTLE, Sunday, Nov. 27, 4:05 p.m.
at San Diego, Sunday, Dec. 4, 4:25 p.m.
at Dallas, Sunday, Dec. 18, 1 p.m.
Considering the Bucs’ lack of depth at wide receiver, and what the Tampa Bay defense might look like if Gerald McCoy misses a couple of games or must play hurt – as often is the case — Joe can’t see the Bucs pulling more than five wins out of the pile of non-division games.
Hardly sexy or satisfying, an 8-8 record would be a big step forward for the Bucs.
What a mental hurdle it would clear for the team. Finally, the Bucs would break free from being an NFC punching bag. And barring a truly freak year, that 8-8 record would take them out the NFC South basement for the first time since 2010.
Joe would be proud to march into the 2017 offseason with the Bucs having wiped the giant “L” from their forehead. It would be a positive step for a team that collectively hasn’t had one in a long time.
September 6th, 2016 at 9:08 am
So most of us are at 8-8. Same with many national guys. It’s nice to finally have this team a little figured out, even if we’re all wrong, at least we’re on the same page. The days of Schiano and Lovie were murky and unpredictable for me.
Hell in 2013 when many were predicting the Bucs to go 5-11 or 6-10, I predicted 10-6 or 11-5. Most of are on the same page now, or at least in the vicinity.
Go Bucs…oh and…
F-L-O-R-I-D-A……S-T-A-T-E
FLORIDA STATE!! FLORIDA STATE!! FLORIDA STATE!!
Woooooooooooooooo!!!!
September 6th, 2016 at 9:09 am
Barring injuries to key players or suspensions there is no reason why the Buccaneers cannot go 8-8. Anything less would be a failure. Some around here think you can look good while losing as if looking good is a relevant measure of a team’s growth and success. Being 6-10 under Dirk is not better than being 6-10 under Lovie. Being 7-9 under Dirk is not better than being 7-9 under Schiano. This team needs to take the next step forward. No excuses.
September 6th, 2016 at 9:18 am
Joe is 8-8 your ceiling or floor
Jiminy Christmas! It’s Joe’s prediction. Period! –Joe
September 6th, 2016 at 9:19 am
9-7 the fragile 3 at DT and weak WR well prevent a serious playoff run.
September 6th, 2016 at 9:23 am
Wow! How inspiring guys. Man I know Buc fans are like battered wives but cmon hold your freaking heads up.
Playing for 8-8 and saying it’s progress is poop!!! I get realism but that’s just negative. By definition 8-8 is average…MEDIOCRE…not good.
And so have we become the Lovie Smith version of fans? We’re so beaten down that we’re excited to simply NOT LOSE? Whatever happened to WINNING?
I get realism and pragmatism…but NOBODY knows which teams will succeed. We can guess based on talent, coaching and history. The Bucs are solid in two of three and since we’re so horrible in the 3rd we’re willing to write off the season to mediocrity? Ten wins or the season is a failure IMO!!! Obviously injuries are the part of the equation that can change everything…in BOTH directions. Yes if #3 or a group of the wrong players goes down we’re toast. But what happens if Cam and Matty Ice have injuries? Old Drew Brees wears out. Injuries could actually help us.
But as of this moment…there is NO reason we can’t win 10 games.
C’mon, man. So “realism = negative” in your mind? Joe’s not here to shovel a pile of baloney. Joe shared his opinion on a prediction. Of course nobody knows where the hell any team’s season will go. Who could have projected the Bucs to wilt and lose four straight to close last season?–Joe
September 6th, 2016 at 9:26 am
Having NO reliable backup quarterback could come into play also. 3 knows there is hot garbage at backup qb and won’t play scared but will play smart. WR, DT, TE and QB next draft priorities safety too.
September 6th, 2016 at 9:31 am
I see five winnable games at least. Of course we still have to go out and win. La, sf, chi, sd, dal. The other five are tough but if we fool around and win 2/3 wed be in the thick of things.
September 6th, 2016 at 9:32 am
Of the ten non division games at least^
September 6th, 2016 at 9:33 am
10-6 minimum
September 6th, 2016 at 9:39 am
Maybe one day we can get back to where Gru had us before he was run out of town.
Been such a joy since then.
September 6th, 2016 at 9:43 am
West Coast has always beat the bucs hopefully that changes but this is the NFL, 7-9 and looking competitive will be good
September 6th, 2016 at 9:43 am
Winnable games
ATL (x2)
L.A.
Denver, basically a rookie QB
New Orleans (x2)
San Fran
Chicago
Dallas
Not saying they win all of these but they should have a great chance to win these games depending on health. I could also see them possibly upending the Raiders as that west to east trip is never easy.
Best case scenario and my expectation is 9-7
Go Bucs!
September 6th, 2016 at 9:44 am
You people will take 8-8 and like it!
September 6th, 2016 at 9:46 am
@Joe
You are absolutely entitled to your opinion. As I think we both agree nobody really knows who will win what next year.
I appreciate skepticism. I like to maintain healthy skepticism. But there is a fine line between skepticism and cynicism. The difference being the cynic expects the bad things to happen the skeptic is simply aware they could turn out poorly.
I think the Bucs past history is informing our opinions. If the Pats or Packers or even the Cowboys entered the season in our shape their fans would be screaming for the playoffs. I’m at least moderating to ten wins and then see what happens.
Again I shouldn’t have to say this BUT…injuries are the wild card. If we have our health I think even Koetter expects us to win ten.
September 6th, 2016 at 9:54 am
8 or 9 wins is the likely outcome of this year. The big difference will be the competitiveness and excitement the team will play with in getting to those 8 or 9 wins.
One more good draft along with 1 more year of experience and development by all the good young players Licht has brought in will make the Bucs legit contenders in 2017. I expect very big things for this team next year. This year – 2016 – I am keeping my expectations tempered.
Can’t wait to see how Jameis Winston plays this year. Its gonna be exciting even if we don’t win enough games to make the playoffs . I predict 3 or 4 4th quarter come from behind victories this year.
September 6th, 2016 at 10:01 am
It’s pretty tough to project 8-8 as thin as the Bucs are at WR for any depth at all, while pinning our hopes on Brate to be the pass catching TE while Stocker does the blocking. I don’t see ASJ being a major contributor this year which makes TE a position of weakness IMO.
On the defensive side, LB depth is thin and losing one of the starters for a long time creates a serious problem in lots of ways.
And of course McCoy has to stay healthy.
I they all stay healthy maybe 8-8. Who know though, we’re just projecting their opponents to play like they did last year, which is a mistake. The Bucs could catch breaks and end up 11-5. Or not and end up 4-12. They’re due for some luck though damn it.
September 6th, 2016 at 10:03 am
Jaboo Wins.
September 6th, 2016 at 10:04 am
I’m sick of reading that mediocrity is considered a step forward. Mediocrity is a con. It’s a participant trophy. I’m looking to just skip mediocrity and move right to unequivocal success.
September 6th, 2016 at 10:07 am
Stpetebucsfan,
I really believe most players and coaching staffs in the NFL are preparing and playing for 16-0. I believe the Buccaneers are trying to win as an organization. They’re not playing for 8-8 and I would be shocked if the conversation among the players and coaches was, “Guys, let’s get eight wins this year.”
It’s just a prediction. If the Joe’s were to predict 10-6 or 4-12 does it really matter when the Bucs are preparing for 16-0?
September 6th, 2016 at 10:16 am
So the theme I’m noticing is we are about to 8 and 8 because we have a coupel all pro 4th and 5th receivers. Ludicrous I tell you. The record means nothing to me winning the Superbowl is all I’m expecting. And if you haven’t heard me say it before my reasoning is the #1 running attack in the league along with #1 pass rush in the league PERIOD.
First year head coach hogwash, this team has two head coaches on its staff right now.
September 6th, 2016 at 10:17 am
Drome
I certainly take your point and I respect everybody’s opinion here.
I’m simply pointing out that I believe “many” of our opinions are influenced by the Bucs horrible history. I get that but history will not be playing on Sunday’s.
IF Koetter does his job! History is what we’re trying to forget here. I think #3, Koetter, Kwon, are all confident and ready to move on. I know I am.
BTW as an aside. I understand why folks are gripping over our lack of depth at WR. I do not dispute that after #3 it looks very shaky. But there are more weapons than WR and Sims is basically a hybrid RB who is a very capable receiver who could lineup wide if we needed him.
Like everybody I wish we had more DEPTH at WR but is our glass half full or half empty. Which pair of WR’s would you rather have than VJAX and ME?
September 6th, 2016 at 10:17 am
The Joes have reasoned soundly. Here’s another reason; the tough schedule. Sure every year some teams are better and some worse than expected. Aside from S.F. ( in S.F mind you), a loss to any other team on that schedule would surprise who? Even the “weaker-ish” teams ( Rams and Bears, beat us just last year and we barely beat the Towelboys without Romo, at home. S.D. has a good-“great at times” QB, decent talent and the game at home.
Jameis also has to get better, he still misses open receivers, with his throws, too much and D-coordinators have more film on him now. WR’s!!!!!!!!!!
Yes, Lovie is gone and that’s addition by subtraction. Our Buccos may be better but the record may not reflect it. It’s not what we want but, 8-8 would be an improvement; sadly so would 7-9!
September 6th, 2016 at 10:18 am
My bad I meant because we don’t have a couple all pro 4th and 5th receivers. Please. This is madness.
September 6th, 2016 at 10:20 am
We got to be the only fanbase in the league talkin about 4th and 5th receivers. HELLO people 4th and 5th recievers don’t get many targets.
September 6th, 2016 at 10:21 am
I really think we can Sweep ATL again. Julio is all world, Jake Matthews and Desmond Trufant are good players. But ouyside of that, I’m not sure. Then there’s Matt Ryan. Every year the media anticipates his rise to the elite, and every year they are left waiting. He’s a good qb, but I think we’ve seen his ceiling. Last year in particular he looked really uncomfortable when forced to go to his second and third reads. I don’t expect a ton of blitzes Sunday. Keeping Julio blanketed will be priority numero uno. If pre season is indicative, Grimes one on one with the leagues second best receiver isn’t wise.
I do like our offense’s chances. I just don’t see Falcons D stopping Doug Martin for four quarters. They could sell out to stop him, but no way do I see them doing that and slowing down Jameis too. If they do, that will give 6’5 Mike Evans alot of favorable one on one matchups. Desmond Trufant is damn good, but asking him to go up and shut down a receiver with Evans’ size and skill set isn’t wise, unless you’re in that Peterson/Revis class.
I’m not going to try to predict the rntire season, too much changes from September to December. But this game right here, I think we can win.
September 6th, 2016 at 10:23 am
Bringback you don’t throw for 4000+ yards as a rookie routinely missing open targets bro. Try again that one was weak.
September 6th, 2016 at 10:24 am
10-6 or maybe 9-7..
I don’t think The kittens are going to be as strong ..
Denver showed a weakness in Carolina..I think we can beat them at least once.. Atlanta at least once if not both and N.O. twice
September 6th, 2016 at 10:25 am
Really Good Tampa Tony…. I think at minimum we go 9-7. I am thinking we go 10-6 or even 11-5 if we start fast and play to our potential.
Car 1,1
Atl x2
NO 1,1
L.A., horrible Qb, team will loose often, Fisher gone
Denver, basically a rookie QB
San Fran, worst team in NFL, fell sorry for Hyde
Chicago, very thin team, one injury from 3-13 season
Dallas, Dak will falter often, we might have Sanchez in by then, they will burn Elliott and Bryant can’t do it all
ARZ, we are going to surprise them in ARZ….
SD, this team is old, stop Gordon and this is ours
OAK this game is a toss up but at home I think we prevail by 1 point
This the best case 11-5. I only think we can do this if we stay healthy at WR and LB, where we are lacking depth…. and not making any moves?
KingBuc17
King Buc
September 6th, 2016 at 10:26 am
We’re gonna party like it’s 1996!
September 6th, 2016 at 10:27 am
Finally someone else sees what I see in this so-called tough schedule. Thanks Kingbuc, everyone of them can be had.
September 6th, 2016 at 10:28 am
You can predict in one hand and sh*t in the other, see which one fills up first…
We won’t know anything till we see how this team plays in a real game.
It seems like every year we come in optimistic and proceed to get kicked right in the junk on opening day which it sets the tone for things to come.
Really interested to see how this team does in ATL and if the players who have been here can get rid of this loser mentality that has been fostered for years.
Win or lose, I want to see a real, professional football team that plays with fire.
Go Bucs!!!
September 6th, 2016 at 10:30 am
Two years ago everyone cried about the oline. Fixed. Last year everyone cried about the d line.Fixed. Now we’re crying about the 4th and 5th recievers??? C’mon man. We can’t be serious.
September 6th, 2016 at 10:34 am
I live in Dubai, but just heard we were having a look at Cecil Shorts!!!! Finally…. that is great!!!! Hope we sign him….great help for Winston and depth addition plus KR. Cut Myers or Cross and develop the latter on PS. All we need now is a little depth at LB and we are set!!
September 6th, 2016 at 10:43 am
So it seems. That’s what a lot of posts on Twitter are saying.
September 6th, 2016 at 10:43 am
Other side of the world and providing great insight. You the man Kingbuc. Also Kermit Whittfield of FSU is our future return man. Count on it.
September 6th, 2016 at 10:43 am
Note: We have two primetime games this year, after largel being mostly ignored for a few years. Could this be a sign that the League thinks the Bucs are building a respectful team?
Game 1 At the Falcons
If this were a home game, I would give us better chances to win. But we have a couple things to consider here. First, the fact that it is an away game puts us at a slight disadvantage. Being the first game of the season also does as well.
The Bucs have lost 10 of the last 14 (4 of the last 5) season openers. On top of that, after we beat them last year, the Falcons will be primed to beat us in this game.
Bucs Chances of win: 40%
Game 2 At the Cardinals
The Cardinals went 13-3 last year. They were 6-2 at home. These are the big boys, and the Bucs may be on their way to becoming a “big boy” but they ain’t there yet. I will never sya there is zero chance of a win, but hopes would have to be pretty slim.
Bucs Chances of win: 15%
Game 3 vs Rams
Case Keenum is their starting Quarterback. The Rams just moved. I personally believe the Rams will end up with the first pick in the draft, or close to it. I would moark this down as a sure win, but because of the Bucs record in recent years against backup QBs, you have to give the Rams at least some chance of a win.
Bucs Chances of win: 75%
Game 4 vs Broncos
The Broncos are rolling with Mark Sanchez as their starting QB. On the surface, people may laugh at this. But consider this: In New York, the Jets sacrificed Offensive Line players to pay large defensive salaries (such as Revis). There is a possibility, however small, that Sanchez finds success gain, since the Broncos have one of the best offensive lines. Even if he bombs, the Broncos have a pretty darn good defense these days…and since the Bucs offense has issues with strong defenses, that gives the Broncos an edge, even if their QB turns out to suck.
Bucs Chances of Win: 35%
Game 5 at the Panthers
Come on now. Panthers are hard enough to beat, but at their home stadium? Not very likely. It’s primetime, and it will probably be an ugly loss.
Bucs Chances of Win: 10%
Game 6 at the 49ers
The 49ers have the great fraud Chip Kelly as coach. They have Blaine Gabbert and Colin Kaepernick battling for the starting QB role. I personally think Kaepernick has a chance of revival under Chip Kelly, but I wouldn’t bet money on it.
Chances of Bucs win: 85%
Game 7 vs Raiders
The Raiders have long been a laughing stock, but Jack Del Rio is a pretty darn good coach. PFF (whom I think are a joke, but…) claims the Raiders will have the 2nd best offensive line. I find this very hard to believe, since they predicted the Bucs OL to be 27th (clearly they haven no clue). The Raiders have Carr, whom I believe has the potential to be a very good QB, possibly elite (one day, not now). This is 8 weeks into the season. The Bucs defense should have swagger by this point. The offense should be settled in and our rookie kicker should be pretty much acclimated at this point.
Chances of Bucs win: 75%
Game 8 vs Falcons
Unlike the first game of the season, the Dirty Birds will be facing a Bucs team that has its sea legs under it. Our secondary should be firing on all cyllinders and the dline should have the kinks worked out. Our kicker should be a bit more dependable by this point. The offense may have some injuries, but not so much that we cannot beat these guys at home. Also, this is a primetime game. A chance to earn some respect after a likely ugly loss in our earlier primetime game against the Panthers. This will be our true statement game.
Chances of Bucs win: 75%
Game 9 vs Bears
These are the same Bears that have been struggling for years. Same QB. Same messed up organization.
Chances of Bucs Win: 80%
Game 10 at the Chiefs
Andy Reid is one of the best NFL coaches ever. Can anyone dispute that? This organization has some quality staff from the ground up. Alex Smith is the starting QB, and he has Nick Foles as his backup. This team had 11 wins last year, despite ranking only 27th in total offense. How? By ranking 7th in total defense. They are a tough team to beat. Bucs should be improved, giving them a slightly better chance of a win, but the Chiefs will have an edge.
Chances of Bucs win: 40%
Game 11 vs Seahawks
The only good thing about this game is that it is at home. That gives us a valid chance of winning, but the Seahawks will have a clear edge. Winston admires the Seahawks QB, and might try to impress him…and that could lead to some turnovers against that defense, which is among the best in the league. Still, the Bucs should have some swag buiilt up on Offense, Defense and possible Special Teams by this point. If they somehow manage to beat the Cardinals the week before, they might have the confidence to win this game.
Chances of Bucs win: 30%
Game 12 at the Chargers
The Chargers HC is on the hot seat this year. Philip Rivers is getting old, not to mention the Chargers offensive line has been bad for years now (he was sacked 40 times last year, as opposed to 27 times for Winston). The Chargers went 4-12 last year, but 9-7 the two years before. Does it matter? Not likely. All things considered, the Bucs should win this game.
Chances of Bucs Win: 65%
Game 13 vs Saints
We all know the Saints. Brees is still pretty darn good. But they are no unbeatable…not even close to it. The bucs will have home field advantage, and should be running hot after a win over the Chargers. The Bucs should be in playoff conversations around this time of the year too. As a Wildcard. I see this as a win, but you just never know 100%.
Chances of Bucs win: 85%
Game 14 at the Cowboys
This game is a bit difficult to predict. Why? So many possible variables. Let’s consider Tony Romo. He pretty much goes down every year. The question is, at what point will he go down? Before or after our game? And if he goes down before, the Cowboys have no good backup, so will they finally trade for Mike Glennon? If Romo plays, I think the Cowboys get a 10% bump in their chances to win…but I don’t think he’ll be healthy by then. If the cowboys go with their current backups, they have a pretty good chance of blowing this game. If they acquire Glennon, I would say they get a 5% bump in their chances to win over using their current backups. But…I’m going with their current backups for this prediction, with the adjustments mentioned above considered later.
Chances of Bucs win: 65%
Game 15 at the Saints
Okay, this will be an interesting game. At this point, I think the Bucs will be a strong candidate for a wild card spot. The Saints? Not so much. They will try to spoil our chances, but I think be this point our team will be fired up, coached up and determined. It will be an away game, giving the Saints a slight bump, but not enough to matter.
Chances of Bucs win: 75%
Game 16 vs Panthers
This game will mean everything to the team. If the Bucs win, they will likely get the wildcard spot. If they lose, they will miss the playoffs. The Panthers will have the division locked up by this point, probably a first round bye. The biggest question is this: will they play their starters? If so, for how long? How good will their backups be? If they rest their starters…and I kind of doubt they will, be should get a good 20% bump in our chances to win. For this prediction, I’m assuming they do not rest them…which will make it tough on our Bucs. It will likely be a loss, costing us the wild card spot. But it should be a very good game…enough to cause teams to worry over the Bucs the following year (and rightfully so).
Chances of Bucs win: 40%
(If the Panthers rest their starters, Bucs chances rise to 60%)
September 6th, 2016 at 10:44 am
Nole…It is entirely possible for a rookie QB to miss a lot of open receivers and still pass for 4000 yards. That’s exactly what Jameis did, just last year. Much of it when the outcome was pretty much decided. ( I’m trying not to say garbage time.). He deserves credit for his mostly fine play last year however, I bet you even he would agree that he missed too many open receivers last year. I don’t have time to find videos now but maybe you do; misses just like he had in 2 of the 3 pre-season games this year; you certainly haven’t forgotten those, have you?
September 6th, 2016 at 10:46 am
It’s super-interesting that so many OTHER conference teams are unknowns. Carson Palmer had an awful preseason. The 49ers have major QB questions. Will the Giants, Lions, Vikings be any good? The Saints and Falcons could be good, or really bad. I think health will be as much of a factor this year as anything.
September 6th, 2016 at 10:49 am
I’m trippin man.. We actually up in arms over the 4th and 5th receivers.
September 6th, 2016 at 10:51 am
NewTampa the only one’s you left out were the Seahawks have major issues in pass protect with those five new linemen. And nonone wants to admit the cats look like hot garbage thw whole pre season.
September 6th, 2016 at 10:51 am
NOS…some fans seem to think every team has crazy depth at WR. That’s simply not so as you and I know. We’ll be alright.
September 6th, 2016 at 10:53 am
Thursday night is about to tell all of you everything you need to know about that front running heartless team the carolina kitties.
September 6th, 2016 at 10:54 am
10/4 87.
September 6th, 2016 at 10:56 am
Russell Wilson was being brutalized every drop back in they’re first pre season outing against the vikes. Go back and watch it if you think in lying.
September 6th, 2016 at 11:00 am
Buc1987 & NoSBoS
It’s not the 4 and 4th that concerns me. What concerns me is VJAX has clearly lost a step and missed a lot of time last year if he goes down that 4 becomes a 2 real fast and that is my concern. Hump is Hump but he and Evans can not carry a team and Hump is not a replacement for VJAX so that is why so many of us are scared about 4 and 5… VJAX is one of my all time favorites and one of the top 5 bucs free agents of all time but father time is in the ring throwing punches now.
NoSBos Keep up the fight. Love your enthusiasm.
September 6th, 2016 at 11:03 am
The “hard” schedule myth is funny.
LA, Seattle, Denver, and Oakland all are traveling from West to East, typically not an easy trip for West Coast teams.
When Denver comes to Tampa with a first year starter it’s their second road game in a row
When Oakland comes to Tampa it’s their second road game in a row
Falcons come to Tampa on a Thursday night those short weeks are never kind to road teams
Bucs will likely play 3 first year or non quality QBs if the defense is improved truly from Loser Lovie they should be able to confuse and rattle Simian, Keenum and possibly Dak Prescott
I’ll give you traveling to KC and San Diego will be tough but with a supposed franchise QB we should have a chance in almost every game
September 6th, 2016 at 11:09 am
Sorry but I just can’t get excited about strength of schedule arguments.
NFL stands for No Freaking Logic according to the late great Chris Thomas.
On any given Sunday!
The league is just too balanced and we can lose any game on our schedule just as we can win any game.
Did anybody place money on last year’s opener. Would you have given 21 points to the Bucs and still claimed your winnings.
Last year at this time I played this game. I felt there were three games in the middle of the season that would be tough…Dallas..and then Philly and Indy on the road. I thought that was three losses it turned out to be 2-1.
Again IF we remain healthy we’re good to go!
September 6th, 2016 at 11:10 am
We beat Atlanta in Atlanta last year, and we’re better this year. What makes playing their this year any tougher? History with the Bucs is a non issue. We never had Jameis before. That makes everything prior to this year irrelevant. Move on. It’s a new book being written. Throw out the old one. It has no relevance what so ever.
September 6th, 2016 at 11:12 am
Those of you saying the 4th and 5th WR’s aren’t important clearly didn’t watch the games last year. Every single player on the roster matters! Championship teams have depth, because depth is always tested. Guys have to be able to step in and perform like a starter, even if it’s only for a game or two. Anyone here think Russell Shepard or Evan Spencer can fill in for Evans? Our offense went to the toilet last year when Jackson went down. Do we have another guy that can do what Adam Humprhries does?
WR depth is not our only issue. I think our safety play is average, and that’s with me looking with bias. I can’t even tell you the names of our backup LB’s. Our defensive line looked good in preseason, but contrary to what so many of you believe, the regular season is a far different animal. Offensive coaches actually scheme against your strengths when the games start to count.
I think we are going to be better, possibly much better. However, it’s going to require a great deal of luck for us to even be in the hunt for the playoffs in December. That doesn’t make you a better fan than me because you think we will win more games, it’s just my opinion as someone who has watched a helluva lot of football in my time. I’ve been to the practices, and we just don’t look like a great team. You can clearly see the pieces are there, but they aren’t all there. Give it time.
September 6th, 2016 at 11:13 am
If #3 is a franchise QB he should be able to win us an extra game or two. With a top running game and a 2nd round kicker. 10-6 unfortunately he’s not a franchise QB. So 7-9 #3 throws for 3890 yards 23TD,18INTS. 310 rushing yards, 5 fumbles lost.
September 6th, 2016 at 11:14 am
“Russell Wilson was being brutalized every drop back in they’re first pre season outing against the vikes. Go back and watch it if you think in lying.
——–
Apparently you don’t realize they had the same issues on the OL last year. I guess you also don’t realize Russell Wilson is by far the most elusive QB in the game, and probably the best at throwing on the move.
September 6th, 2016 at 11:19 am
With Jeremy Butler picking up the offense while on PS, and a potential Shorts signing, I’d say WR will be looking pretty solid.
September 6th, 2016 at 11:20 am
Sorry Glennon’s Mom, not many 2nd year qbs regress that badly. I’m not sold on Winston being a franchise guy… Yet. But doubt he gets that much worse
September 6th, 2016 at 11:20 am
Our starters are playoff caliber.
The problem for us is the back half of our roster is still poor(bottom five in the NFL).
I think Joe is being prudent in saying 8-8.
If the Bucs can stay injury free at WR, LB, QB and DT then I say we are 10-6.
However, staying injury free at that many positions is probably not likely.
September 6th, 2016 at 11:31 am
50 I guess you don’t realize Lynch is no longer there for them to rely on in the crunch also right. Save that elusive argument at some point you gotta stand in a deliver the football. Much like he did in OT against the Pack in the NFC champ game two years ago.
September 6th, 2016 at 11:32 am
How is winning two more games a big step forward. I think that’s weak minded thinking. This team is better than 8-8. No reason the shouldn’t be in the playoffs and the Redskins are. The Bucs are better at every level. If they don’t win at least 10 games that means coaching screwed it
September 6th, 2016 at 11:33 am
“50 I guess you don’t realize Lynch is no longer there for them to rely on in the crunch also right. Save that elusive argument at some point you gotta stand in a deliver the football. Much like he did in OT against the Pack in the NFC champ game two years ago.”
—–
I guess you didn’t realize that Lynch only played in 7 games last year, and was largely ineffective?
September 6th, 2016 at 11:33 am
Being elusive didn’t keep the vikes from pounding him a coupel weeks ago dude. Again go back an veiw it guy.
September 6th, 2016 at 11:36 am
Largely ineffective according to who you??? That’s not the same team without Lynch dude. Some guys are the pulse of a team. He was for that one,much like Norman was for the cats. And if he was ineffective according You. We ultimately seen the results of it now didn’t we.
September 6th, 2016 at 11:37 am
“Being elusive didn’t keep the vikes from pounding him a coupel weeks ago dude. Again go back an veiw it guy.”
——–
It’s the FREAKING Pre-season!!!!!!! You’re just making yourself look stupid.
September 6th, 2016 at 11:39 am
“Largely ineffective according to who you??? That’s not the same team without Lynch dude. Some guys are the pulse of a team. He was for that one,much like Norman was for the cats. And if he was ineffective according You. We ultimately seen the results of it now didn’t we.”
———-
According to everyone. They were 3-4 in the games he played. He only rushed for 400 yards. They still made the second round of the playoffs. Apparently you just think we are the greatest and everyone else is horrible, so you go ahead and continue. You’re making yourself into a huge joke at this point.
September 6th, 2016 at 11:41 am
I like people like you 50. I live by a simple premise. “Never back down”.
September 6th, 2016 at 11:43 am
I see 9-7 (4-2 division)
I think they can get to 10 IF …..
JW and WRs are more consistent and the pass rush present and consistent
September 6th, 2016 at 11:46 am
Making myself look like a joke again accordingng to who you??? This coming from what I assume is a man that wakes up visit’s a site wit a sole purpose seeing what another man says eveyday. But I’m the joke. Rriiiggghtt. You not hardly on radar until you elegantly cut and pace me everyday. Again thanks for that. You really help drive home ny position everyday. I should send you a bottle of something.
September 6th, 2016 at 11:49 am
And we are the greatest so says NOSBOS. I don’t require anyone else on here to feel that way for me to feel that way. What is peculier is why it has you in your feeling so much???
September 6th, 2016 at 11:51 am
I’ll play –
7-9 minimum (disappointing)
8-8 most logical based on what we know (or don’t know) today – but I think they get hot in the 3rd and 4th quarters of the season.
I’m going with 9-7/10-6.
September 6th, 2016 at 11:55 am
“Making myself look like a joke again accordingng to who you??? This coming from what I assume is a man that wakes up visit’s a site wit a sole purpose seeing what another man says eveyday. But I’m the joke. Rriiiggghtt. You not hardly on radar until you elegantly cut and pace me everyday. Again thanks for that. You really help drive home ny position everyday. I should send you a bottle of something.”
——–
Lol
September 6th, 2016 at 11:56 am
Here’s what I’m gonna do for you tho 50. Seeing is how I inspire you I’m gonna return the love and shout you out everyday from now on. I mean clearly I’m woven into the inner workings of your mind. I feel it only right you know I’m thinking bout you everyday as well okay bro.
September 6th, 2016 at 11:58 am
My prediction would also be 8-8 and I would be happy with that or better.
September 6th, 2016 at 11:59 am
“Here’s what I’m gonna do for you tho 50. Seeing is how I inspire you I’m gonna return the love and shout you out everyday from now on. I mean clearly I’m woven into the inner workings of your mind. I feel it only right you know I’m thinking bout you everyday as well okay bro.”
——
You’re starting to make this awkward. I’ve been on this site far longer than you, and you are far from the only person I’ve ever had a discussion with. I hate to break your heart, but in a couple weeks I’ll forget all about you.
September 6th, 2016 at 12:00 pm
16-0 Baby! No less!…….says the fan in me.
I think it’s realistic to say that this team is better than it was last year. That said 8-8 would be palatable but 9-7 would be a better reflection of the improvements brought to the team. IMHO
We were 6-10 last year and left some games on the table, so……
September 6th, 2016 at 12:01 pm
What a great thread… So freakin excited for the season to start. I’m very optimistic about this team because of what we have in the trenches. Many teams are struggling on the O-line while we have developed one of the best and deepest in the league. Our D-line may not be elite but has a very interesting rotation of guys going outside in. The biggest question for this defense will be stopping the run. If they can have success in that area I believe we have the personnel to win on third down. The one intangible that I see improving on this squad is heart. This is worth a couple wins in close games. Coaching should be another game or two. I’ll take Joe’s prediction and raise it a game or two in the W column.
September 6th, 2016 at 12:04 pm
10-6 because I believe Jamies is just that good he will help bring the whole team up too edge out 2 more wins (hello playoff spot 5 or 6 seed lol) anyway I love me some Rudy Humphries , and I believe that our d line is going to be nasty which will help out are alabove avreage comers and safeties.
September 6th, 2016 at 12:05 pm
I see that we are bringing in Cecil shorts for a visit. Very exciting. And how bout that Noles game last night. I only got like 4 hours of sleep because I was soo hyped up.
September 6th, 2016 at 12:12 pm
If Raheem Morris can go 10-6 with Josh Freeman at the helm, then I think Koetter could do the same (or better) with Jameis Winston.
Just saying :o)
September 6th, 2016 at 12:18 pm
Lol Hawaiian. Also we’ll see when his Seminole kick returner makes his debut. I want playoffs too, but how many of you were in great anticipation of the Titans game? If I remember, many were saying how we were going to shut Mariotta down, how the Titans were garbage, yada yada yada. I like the team when they look inspired, but, like Koetter, I see that we still come out flat at times. Flat in the NFL gets you beat down and humiliated before halftime.
September 6th, 2016 at 12:30 pm
@Chris,
I would love to compound on your post, but I’m not sure if it’s going to upset someone, lol.
September 6th, 2016 at 12:31 pm
0.500 or not, the most important thing is Bucs should have some momentum going into next season. I would be perfectly fine with early season struggles and a mid season surge. Jameis is amazing at many things, but he has a tendency to be inconsistent and that may simply be the nature of his gunslinging game. I think he will have a roller coaster year much like last year and our win total will be more dependent on how the team can carry him. Especially the defense.
My other hope is that after a rough start to the season, Jameis finds consistency from mid season onwards. Again, I am not hoping for a bad start, I think if we start good we are playoff bound. I simply think the new systems in place + young QB will have us disappointed until mid October.
September 6th, 2016 at 12:37 pm
tmax…who’s to say Vjax doesn’t go out with a bang and not a wimper? I know…. you’ll say history. He may or may not stay healthy this season. If he does stay healthy though I think they’ll be deadly by mid season and might make that push NOS keeps talking about. THAT’S how much I believe in Jameis. Of course I know there’s other players on the O that will play a significant part too. Dougie, Evans, and Sims etc. BUT Jameis will raise the entire level on this team from D to SP to of course the O. Even the level of the coaching staff.
So in conclusion. He’ll raise the level of the 3rd, 4th and even the 5th WR’s. He’ll raise the level of the O-line if need be.
Parting the red sea?….Pishhh.
Things are going to be okay. Let’s just watch this play out. I’m anxious too, to see who’s right and wrong, but also to watch our team grow.
Go Bucs!!!
September 6th, 2016 at 12:42 pm
Tmax.. besiiiides think of it this way and this might get you a little more excited for the season. I know we’re all excited, but there’s always this…
Ding dong Lovie’s gone!
September 6th, 2016 at 12:48 pm
They are all winnable with Jameis as our quarterback. Hell he just showed up on the sideline at FSU & Old Miss and look what happen. Jameis has the Midas touch.
September 6th, 2016 at 12:52 pm
2016 wise proverb
muscle hamster doug turn into fat chipmunk cheeks alvin
September 6th, 2016 at 1:05 pm
I like the coach but don’t forget. He had #3 ill prepared for the season opener last season. As the QB’s coach.
September 6th, 2016 at 1:13 pm
Youb people come across like smart individual but quickly m aje yourselves look nothing of the sort when you compare one season to the next when NFL player after player will quickly tell no two season’s in the NFL are a like. C’mon that’s common knowledge.
September 6th, 2016 at 1:24 pm
Its weak to say that because we haven’t been spit in the past so we can’t be spit now. That’s like saying Jimmy Johnson’s 1 and 15 cowboys should’ve remained 1 and 15 every year after because 1 and 15 happened once before. Dumb way to think about it if you ask me. Where’s the logic in that. Some cue 50, this one has “cut and paste”written all over it. And glad to know you being a jbf original in all,I had the fortunate task of being the first person to motivate you to have a conversation wit👍.
September 6th, 2016 at 1:26 pm
Honestly, I don’t see a game on our schedule that we don’t have a chance to win. We’ve got a coach that I believe in. We have a DC that I’m excited about. We have lots of really good young talent. If we go 8-8 I won’t be disappointed but I think we will have underachieved. In years past, 8-8 would have been us playing above our heads and having some great bounces of the ball. This year, 8-8 is being pretty conservative. We haven’t proven anything yet and there won’t be a lot of people that feel this way, but I see 16 games that we have a great chance of winning this year.
September 6th, 2016 at 1:37 pm
The last time the Bucs had to play both west coast divisions in the same year, they went 5-11. That was with a monte kiffin led defense. Just sayin… Bucs will be lucky to squeeze 6 wins out against the defending Super Bowl champs, fig Newton twice, Carson Palmer, Drew Brees twice, an angry Seahawks D, and all of the other mediocre teams we never seem to match intensity against. I’d like to be optimistic, but there is a reason also the Bucs decided to keep 3 QBs on the roster, and it’s not because GLENNON is that good. It’s becuase no one wants him.
September 6th, 2016 at 1:37 pm
87
I too believe in jameis as you know I’d just like for his job to be a little easier with better receivers. If VJAX plays all 16 I like our chances.
September 6th, 2016 at 1:57 pm
Here’s FPI’s implied neutral field ranks vs. Bucs
Atlanta 0
Arizona +5 1/2
Rams +1/2
Denver +3 1/2
Carolina +5 1/2
San Fran -3
Oakland +2 1/2
Chicago 0
KC +5
Seattle +4
San Diego 0
New Orleans +1/2
Dallas +1/2
If we see the actual lines deviate positively (negatively) from this as the season goes on, that indicates Vegas thinks we’re improving (getting worse).
September 6th, 2016 at 1:59 pm
Hawaiian
As always well thought out posts and I agree with you that “Championship” teams need depth. That and honestly LUCK when it comes to injuries will determine the SB winner.
But many of us…at least me…are not saying we are a SB team or even that we’ll win our division. We’ve won ten before and missed out on the playoffs.
I simply believe ten games is very very doable with this current team. We could have won ten years with decent coaching and our coaches are better and we’ve added some significant talent to our D including the most needed commodity..edge rushing.
I agree with you we’re not a Championship team. But there is no reason we’re not competitive and win ten games. If we do make the playoffs it will probably be one and done but I’m cool with that.
87 and I disagree on the number of wins…he thinks 8 I think ten. But we do agree that this is not the SB year…that’s for next season!!! And part of it Hawaiian is your observation that we’re just not deep enough to go far in the playoffs against top caliber teams.
September 6th, 2016 at 2:14 pm
I haven’t seen the opening odds against Atlanta yet, guessing the birds are favored by 3. I’ll take that 3 to add to the winning pile of points the Bucs end up winning by.
September 6th, 2016 at 2:33 pm
We only play the panthers once this year! And the saints and Falcons have not shown any improvement but both teams can still be competitive at times. 8-8, 9-7 can get us in the post season.
September 6th, 2016 at 2:41 pm
I just can’t recall the last time I seem so much talk about dept and 4th and 5th receivers. Y’all can keep that I’ll take health over both of those any day.
September 6th, 2016 at 2:47 pm
Its like jbf stay looking for reasons why the team won’t succeed instead of accepting this squad ready right the f@$! now. The head coach just said a week or so ago he’s pleased with the dept on his team. They kept 10 D linemen 6 cbs. Then to appease many of you Mr. Licht went out and signed yet another WR. What y’all gone find to complain about next. Let me our waterboys ain’t quite up to par with the so-called good teams waterboys.
September 6th, 2016 at 2:50 pm
@NoSBoS – I’ll second that. We’ve had so many years of legitimate questions about talent in our starters and figuring out how we’re going to scheme around a significant skill deficit. Now that we have a talented team, people are saying that we don’t have starter level depth at every position. It’s ridiculous. We’ve got the talent necessary to win at a high level right now. Let’s wait til we get to the playoffs and bounced because of depth issues late in the season before we start moaning about it before the season begins.
September 6th, 2016 at 2:52 pm
“We only play the panthers once this year! And the saints and Falcons have not shown any improvement but both teams can still be competitive at times. 8-8, 9-7 can get us in the post season.”
————
Ok, so should I tell him, or does someone else want to do it?
September 6th, 2016 at 2:59 pm
@StPete,
I totally agree with you. First of all, this is the NFL – every game is winnable. We beat the eventual Super Bowl Champion Saints in their building when we went 3-13. Anything can happen. The teams I think we have the least chance of winning are Arizona and Carolina, which just so happen to be 2 of our first 5 games.
The NFL is about consistency more than anything else. We haven’t proven we can be consistent yet. This team has good talent. I wouldn’t say championship talent, but playoff talent. But I just need to see us put it together week in and week out. I think the players need to learn how to do that as well.
The first 5 games are critical to our success. I hate the way our schedule sets up. First two on the road, one of which being the NFC favorite, an extremely physical team that always gives us fits, then the Super Bowl champs and a historically good defense, then on the road to the other Super bowl team. That’s about as rough as it can get. If we can win 3 out of 5, I’ll be on board with your 10 win prediction.
September 6th, 2016 at 3:01 pm
“And glad to know you being a jbf original in all,I had the fortunate task of being the first person to motivate you to have a conversation wit👍.”
————-
What are you talking about?
September 6th, 2016 at 3:09 pm
@Hawaiian,
You’re starting to make this awkward. I’ve been on this site far longer than you, and you are far from the only person I’ve ever had a discussion with. I hate to break your heart, but in a couple weeks I’ll forget all about you.
________________________________________________________________I think NOSBOS misread your answer to him and thought you said he was the ONLY person you have had a conversation with.
Just a guess.
September 6th, 2016 at 3:22 pm
Very interesting thread & predictions. I’d agree with you Joe on the 8-8 if it just as a result of the coaching change from Lovie Smith to Dirk Koetter and the addition of some new players. However, I’m convinced that having Mike Smith as our DC this year will gain us 1-2 more victories (yes, I think he’ll make that much of a difference in running our defense). And so, a 9-7 (minimum) to a 10-6 (hopeful) is what I’m anticipating this year. Admittedly not as ‘scientific’ as Bonzai with probabilities of winning for each game, but then again, I tend to believe that the Bucs will be in every game and that each one will be a dogfight. Time for us to start winning the close ones. Go Bucs!
September 6th, 2016 at 3:22 pm
You see how they try to play Dave.. Thanks bro.
September 6th, 2016 at 3:24 pm
D@$! you right Dave I did miss read it. Oh well happy to have made yo list 50.
September 6th, 2016 at 3:56 pm
7-9 or 8-8 🏈
September 6th, 2016 at 4:16 pm
@Stpetebucsfan
I predicted our loss in that first game last year…a month early. Tried to prepare people for it. Tried to convince then to not let it ruin their season.
No one listened, and people freaked out when the game was lost.
A man could get rich better against the Bucs in the season opener every year. They’ve lost 10 of the last 14 season openers. 4 of the last 5.
September 6th, 2016 at 4:19 pm
Here’s how I look at it…if the Bucs can win 2 of the first 5 games, then they should be sitting pretty, because I see the wins coming after the bye week.
8-8 is surely possible. 7-9 is acceptable IF they lose pretty. 9-7 or better would be a godsend.
September 6th, 2016 at 4:20 pm
“A man could get rich better”
should be
A man could get rich betting
September 6th, 2016 at 4:54 pm
I had the Bucs going 6-10 before the final cuts, I love the roster that we have. Loaded with my type of players, players who are versatile and actually had to earn a roster spot. I’m going with 11-5 and I don’t think our schedule is that tough. Some teams on our schedule was good last season, but I don’t believe they will be good this season.. 11-5
September 6th, 2016 at 4:59 pm
“Hawaiian Buc Says:
September 6th, 2016 at 2:52 pm
————
Ok, so should I tell him, or does someone else want to do it?”
Be my guest….
September 6th, 2016 at 5:01 pm
also, 8-8
September 6th, 2016 at 5:12 pm
@LakeLandBuc,
LakeLandBuc Says:
September 1st, 2016 at 1:14 pm
If the Bucs win 8 games this season, I will swim across Lake Hunter with a whole chicken tied to my neck
———————
So, are you practicing for your swim?
September 6th, 2016 at 5:56 pm
8-8 would be an improvement. Anything less..is less. I do believe we can reach 8-8 or better. its just we gotta stay healthy for the 1st half of the season.
September 6th, 2016 at 7:35 pm
11-5. wild card birth, but don’t see us winning the first game. Stoked for this year!!!! Go bucs
September 6th, 2016 at 7:39 pm
Dave Pear, the swim isn’t a problem I’m from Lakeland. But with the roster that I love, I’m bullish 11-5 all day long. Go Dreadnaughts, Go Bucs
September 6th, 2016 at 8:02 pm
LakeLandBuc,
The swim MAY be a problem with a chicken tied to your neck
I still say that a better more challenging swim would be to wear a mullet belt and swim one half mile off shore of Ponce Inlet here in New Smyrna Beach.
I would love to see that. What do you think LakeLandBuc? Are you up for it?
September 6th, 2016 at 8:11 pm
9-7 if we stay injury free
6-10 if we have a few injuries
I say 7-9
September 6th, 2016 at 8:15 pm
If we win the Super Bowl I would do it, and in all fairness I did change my predictions before the season begin. I love this roster and it’s improving everyday, I had doubts, now the doubts are gone. As long as Licht and Koetter are making the right moves, I will support them to the end.
September 6th, 2016 at 8:22 pm
No predictions from this guy. I’ve been wrong too many times. I want to see the first couple of real games first. I’m more optimistic than I have been in years. I’m thinking a top 5 defense and a top 10 offense if they stay healthy. If they can do that it means playoffs. But I need to see them in action and the time has come, finally. Go Bucs!!!
September 6th, 2016 at 8:24 pm
Mike Johnson Says
“8-8 would be an improvement. Anything less..is less.”
7-9 is an improvement too, considering we won only 6 games last year.
I will say this though…I think if Kwon had not been suspended, we might have won 2 of the last 4 games.
So 8-8 seems fair, especially after adding Grimes, Noah and Vernon.
September 6th, 2016 at 8:25 pm
@BigMacAttack
A very wise choice.
Personally, I’m ‘hoping’ for a win or two before the bye, and expecting 6-7 wins after the bye.
September 6th, 2016 at 8:56 pm
I’m going 9-7 minimum. This defense is going to shock people. They should be scary good.
September 6th, 2016 at 9:54 pm
i’m smart you’re stoopid
September 7th, 2016 at 7:50 am
Im in at 9 – 7.
I predicted 8 -8 last year, and I still feel that we had the talent to make that doable, but I did not factor enough in for Lovie’s incompetence.
September 7th, 2016 at 9:26 am
10-6
September 9th, 2016 at 4:46 pm
It should be noted, Joe predicted 6-10 last year, and nailed it.
https://www.joebucsfan.com/2015/09/joebucsfan-com-predicts-a-6-10-season/#comment-3591567
I predicted 2-6 in the first half of the season. I was a game off.