Sacks = Wins
July 8th, 2016
Will DE Robert Ayers break the sack jinx?
It is just galling to Joe how this friggin’ franchise, the Bucs, has barfed all over itself trying to create sacks.
A good chunk of Bucs fans out there don’t remember when the Bucs had a double-digit sack man (Simeon Rice in 2005). That’s over a decade, folks.
Since, the Bucs have wasted draft picks and untold millions of Team Glazer loot in wasted efforts to develop a pass rush and put the quarterback on the ground and, as Al Davis famously said, “He must go down and he must go down hard.”
Now, in 2016, the relevance of sacks has never been greater. That’s the word this week from Pat Kirwan, co-host of “Movin’ the Chains,” heard exclusively on SiriusXM NFL Radio.
Kirwan, who dabbles in stats but is smart enough not to be a slave to stats, said he research telling statistics or a trends in teams that qualified for the postseason last year. Among the data he studied, he said none was as telling or predictive as sacks. Of the 12 playoff teams, only two were not in the top half of the league in sacks. That would be Seattle and Washington.
(Believe it or not, the Bucs had as many sacks as Washington [38] and one more sack than Seattle.)
Among many numbers Kirwan said he looked at rush defense (yards per carry), net yards passing per play and points allowed. Only the points allowed statistic came close to sacks, as far as a pattern for 2015 playoff teams.
Now whether this sacks statistic is an outlier or a trend, we can only guess. But Kirwan believes, correctly, that football is an ever-changing game. So he is of the mind this sacks-equals-wins theory is not a fluke, but where the game is heading.
Yes, the Bucs have gone over a decade without a double-digit sackmeister, and only once have the Bucs made the playoffs in that time span. Coincidence? Joe doesn’t believe in coincidences.
It’s time to put this ugly period of Bucs defense to an end this fall.
July 8th, 2016 at 8:58 am
No coincidence Joe! If you’re sacking, you’re getting pressure. If you’re getting pressure, you’re forcing turnovers and dictating the game.
Wow! A decade ago! That’s sad!
July 8th, 2016 at 9:00 am
It all depends on health at dt. all our DTs are fragile mccoy, McDonald and Akeem Spence all coming off injuries. Spence and Ayers are legit upgrades. Jac Smith is fragile and gets destroyed vs run… Howard Jones is the x factor and the health of the fragile DTs. The upgraded scheme in secondary will help dline a lot.
July 8th, 2016 at 9:07 am
Well said tmax. Injuries are always a concern. We did upgrade at multiple positions throughout so, in theory, the play should be better.
There is a direct correlation between the d-line and DBs.
July 8th, 2016 at 9:11 am
Bucsfanman
I can see both Will Gholston and Howard Jones having solid if not breakout years. I’m not sold on Jac Smith. He’s definitely not an every down player. Hopefully Sith can find a nice niche for him
July 8th, 2016 at 9:38 am
Wanna see a depressing list?
How about the list of (post Simeon) failed attempts to improve the DLine and find someone who can create 10 sacks in a year:
Gaines Adams (1st – #4 overall)
Roy Miller (3rd)
Kyle Moore (4th)
Brian Price (2nd)
Adrian Clayborne (1st)
DeQuan Bowers (high 2nd)
Michael “ghost” Johnson (FA – $16M for 1 year)
“Sackless” George Johnson (trade)
To date, Gerald McCoy (who has yet to play up to his full potential in 6 years) is the only proven DL acquisition to have worked out in the last 10 years – and he was a #3 overall pick and carries a very high salary.
Can late blooming FA Robert Ayers and high 2nd round pick Noah Spence break the decade long streak of DL futility? God I hope so.
The Bucs are certainly due for a break in that regard.
July 8th, 2016 at 10:31 am
I gotta see it first to believe it. Win some games. Get a lot of sacks. Then I..along with a..plethora of fellow Buc skeptics will believe. Until then? I’m just a..cautiously optimistic Bucs fan.
July 8th, 2016 at 11:19 am
The D-Line doesn’t even have to get more sacks to be improved. We were not able to create pressure in most of our games last year. Getting pressure will help a ton. Hitting the QB is huge too even if it happens on a positive play for the offense.
July 8th, 2016 at 11:23 am
The d-line had a lot of pressure last year!!! There was a lot of pressure of what songs to play after a loss everytime as they partied in the locker room!!!!
July 8th, 2016 at 12:00 pm
@Pickgrin- Not very impressive, is it? Although, Roy Miller did have some OK years, especially for where he was drafted, and Price had looked promising before his injury. I had hoped that Clayborn would pan out but his high-five came short!
July 8th, 2016 at 2:12 pm
@Bucsfanman: Don’t get TBR started on Clayborn. He’ll go off on a “Slowborn” rant that will seem neverending. It’s one of his pet peeves, and he’ll continue to wear out the “!” key.
July 8th, 2016 at 7:44 pm
Don’t count on Robert Ayers making a difference. Licht free agents don’t usually work out, especially at the DE position. He MIGHT get 4-5 sacks…but that would be miraculous.
July 9th, 2016 at 12:16 am
I like jac as a player ,with that said he’s a pass rush specialist, hes not big enough to have 3+ downs every drive.
July 9th, 2016 at 7:39 am
It is great that we are improving our defense,but we scored 21 or less points 7 times last year.Love to get points from defense,but we need more TD’s. from the offense.I hope more aggressive play calling when you get near the
endzone will help get us there. When offense gets inside the 25 I want TD’s not field goals attempts.
July 9th, 2016 at 9:42 am
Our sack numbers were not that bad last year, we actually had a decent season when u look at the numbers, but when u watch the game u couldn’t tell, that’s because every time we would get a sack the offense would still get a 1st down to continue the drive! That’s unacceptable, when a Defense gets a sack that should be the end of that drive, plain n Simple. I blame that on our terrible scheme and the secondary sagging 10 yrds off the receivers. I wanted to pull my hair out it happen so much last year. Very frustrating to watch. But with our new n improved secondary I’m confident they can hold it down long enough for the rush to get there and create alot more havoc this year. I look for Ayers to have 7-9 sacks and counting on him to be a main cog in this defense. He’s one of the leaders on that line. And if C-Mac can stay healthy he’s a underated piece on that line as well. The potential is certainly there for this line to finally have that break out year us Buc fans having been praying for.
July 12th, 2016 at 12:23 pm
Case in point:
-Von Miller…..errrr….the Broncos D destroying the Panthers in the Super Bowl last year.
-The Giants’ D-line blaming the undefeated Patriots in the 2012(?) Super Bowl
Pass rush = Championships